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Predictions for economic factors on December 31, 2010 and June 30, 2011.

By American in Japan   Follow   Mon, 18 Oct 2010, 10:02pm   8,218 views   74 comments
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For those who dare! Make your predictions for both of these dates (12/31/10) and (6/30/11) for the following:
Yen/US Dollar exchange rate (now 81.3 yen per $US)
US Dollar/Euro exchange rate (now 138.9 $US per Euro)
US Dollar/Aussie Dollar exchange rate (now 0.986 USD per AUS)
S&P 500 (now 1,184.71)
US Unemployment (U6) (now 17.1%)
US Consumer confidence index (now 48.5)

You can just predict some items if you wish.

It will be interesting to look back on this.

Most Liked Comments

1. Kevin Follow Befriend 40 threads 2,652 comments

   1   9:26pm Wed 20 Oct 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike   Jeremy says U6 at 14.5% on 6/30/11 is extreme… 18%ish is much more realistic. There's very little to suggest that unemployment will get worse over the next 8 months, and plenty suggest that it'll get much better. Lots of companies are picking up hiring already in certain sectors. I'll concede that 14.5% is optimistic, but I'm doubtful that unemployment will get any worse than it is right now. The coming inflation will keep that from happening.

2. Vicente Follow Befriend (8) 203 threads 4,403 comments Davis, CA

   2   6:06pm Sat 4 Dec 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   pkennedy says If you take the advice of the non pessimistic people, you’ll find they’re doing quite well right now with their investments! +1

3. marcus Follow Befriend (5) 166 threads 5,053 comments

   3   11:25am Sun 5 Dec 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   theoakman says They are still around but conveniently stay clear of any gold thread these days. Yeah so ? In my experience with trading and human nature, I find that to be far less surprising than your apparent need to repeatedly gloat about your luck with gold (or skill and brilliance if you prefer). iwog says When was the highest oil price? During the point of highest oil production. When was the lowest oil price? During the point of lowest oil production. Crazy but that’s the way things work. I understand, but all such cycles don't lead to extreme bubbles. In fact most don't. I think that at some point sooner or later there will be an incredible gold price bubble. And maybe you and others are right that it will come sooner rather than later. Or maybe many of the gold bulls will have to be beaten up and worn down before it comes. Who knows ? If history is any guide (and it probably isn't), there were two big waves of inflation over the course of about 10 years that preceded the extreme bubble in '79 - '80. I wouldn't go as far as to say that it's always the tail wagging the dog or vica versa.

4. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 272 threads 12,446 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

   4   5:58pm Sun 5 Dec 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected   marcus says I understand, but all such cycles don’t lead to extreme bubbles. In fact most don’t. I think that at some point sooner or later there will be an incredible gold price bubble. And maybe you and others are right that it will come sooner rather than later. Or maybe many of the gold bulls will have to be beaten up and worn down before it comes. Who knows ? If history is any guide (and it probably isn’t), there were two big waves of inflation over the course of about 10 years that preceded the extreme bubble in ‘79 - ‘80. Yeah, I remember 1980. I was 14 years old and dealing in silver coins at my Junior High school. The inflation of that period was never before seen and has not been seen since. I'm sure there were plenty of people who bought the rumor and sold the news, but inflation just kept shocking people with new highs and new buyers. (the 1975 spike is ALL oil by the way) Once Volker sacrificed the economy and the Hunt Brothers were screwed over by the futures exchange, people sold off pretty quick. I think a case can be made that gold in 1980 was less of an inflation play and more of a sympathetic connection to the silver market which was clearly a media-driven speculative bubble. Today the situation is reversed. Central banks are buying gold again, the currency markets are crazy scared, and silver is being dragged along for the ride.

5. FortWayne Follow Befriend (13) 102 threads 3,759 comments

   5   8:31pm Wed 29 Dec 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Kevin says Chris_In_LosAngeles says xenogear3 says I can predict the predictions. The people on this message board are so negative. Everyone will predict High Unemployment, US dollar tanked, Low Stock Market, Gold and Guns are the king. All right, except the stock market. Stock Market will be through the roof high. - Lower value of dollar means higher stock market. - Gold and guns are always king (thats how you collect rent in Oakland and Los Angeles) - Unemployment only going to go up, why hire an american for 20/hour when a chinese/indian will do it for 50cents? Negative prediction from me would be like this: - China stops lending us money due to fears of national deficit and inflation. - We print money zimbabwe style to pay the deficits (since we never cut spending). - Inflation goes through the roof. - You’ll be trading houses for guns because guns keep you alive. People invoking Zimbabwe in the US are idiots. 100% inflation over 5 years would eliminate the US debt entirely if we had a balanced budget. If we don’t have a balanced budget, no amount of inflation would touch the debt. America’s problems today are not the same as Zimbabwe’s (a completely destabilized, chaotic country that underwent massive social change and was never wealthy to begin with) or Weimar Germany’s (a country that owed debt in Gold to its neighbors). Yes, there will be inflation. Yes, it will be significant. No, we won’t be pushing around barrels of money to buy bread. Why would it eliminate the debt? It is right that it would eliminate past debt. but because we are not living within a balanced budget it would mean new debt would arise (and now under inflated value) faster than old debt would be paid off. We'd just be where we started off, except everyone would be very very poor.

6. john1 Follow Befriend (1) 1 threads 4 comments Los Angeles, CA

   6   5:03pm Mon 7 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Gold at 10,000!

7. American in Japan Follow Befriend (28) 149 threads 1,398 comments

   7   10:08pm Mon 18 Oct 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   I will put out the first one: (12/31/10 and 6/30/11) Yen/US Dollar exchange rate: 85.0 and 85.0 US Dollar/Euro exchange rate: 130.0 and 132.0 US Dollar/Aussie Dollar exchange rate: 1.05 and 1.10 S&P 500: 1,010. and 980. US Unemployment (U6): 17.3% and 17.3% US Consumer confidence index 46.8 and 45.0

8. xenogear3 Follow Befriend 10 threads 419 comments

   8   12:53am Tue 19 Oct 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   I can predict the predictions. The people on this message board are so negative. Everyone will predict High Unemployment, US dollar tanked, Low Stock Market, Gold and Guns are the king.

9. Kevin Follow Befriend 40 threads 2,652 comments

   9   3:15am Tue 19 Oct 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Yen/US Dollar exchange rate (now 81.3 yen per $US) 75, 85 US Dollar/Euro exchange rate (now 138.9 $US per Euro) That's 138.9 US cents, not dollars. Only off by a few orders of magnitude though! Anyway.. $1.47, $1.32 US Dollar/Aussie Dollar exchange rate (now 98.6 USD per AUS) $1.03, $0.95 S&P 500 (now 1,184.71) 1215, 1308 US Unemployment (U6) (now 17.1%) 17.0%, 14.5% US Consumer confidence index (now 48.5) 49, 53

10. Kevin Follow Befriend 40 threads 2,652 comments

    10   3:17am Tue 19 Oct 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   xenogear3 says I can predict the predictions. The people on this message board are so negative. Everyone will predict High Unemployment, US dollar tanked, Low Stock Market, Gold and Guns are the king. You won't have devaluation of the stock market and devaluation of the currency at the same time. Anyone who bets on both of those things happening at the same time is a fool.

11. pkennedy Follow Befriend (8) 28 threads 1,339 comments Redwood City, CA

    11   10:49am Wed 20 Oct 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Yeah I would second Kevin's estimates. Nothing extreme, but a step in the right direction.

12. EBGuy Follow Befriend 4 threads 2,095 comments

    12   2:21pm Thu 21 Oct 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   I’m doubtful that unemployment will get any worse than it is right now Do you think we're near end of public sector cuts (I've always said that's the last shoe to drop, along with the entertainment industrial complex)? Last months numbers were ugly. The private sector added roughly 64,000 jobs, but that total was more than offset by a loss of almost 160,000 government jobs. My gut (due to California's extend and pretend strategy) says one more year (but I certainly hope not).

13. joshuatrio Follow Befriend 41 threads 703 comments Monterey, CA

    13   2:48pm Thu 21 Oct 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Gold at $10,000 (jk)

14. joshuatrio Follow Befriend 41 threads 703 comments Monterey, CA

    14   4:41pm Thu 21 Oct 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   thunderlips11 says GLD (-.BTCHZ) LOL - that was great.

15. Kevin Follow Befriend 40 threads 2,652 comments

    15   5:53pm Thu 21 Oct 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   EBGuy says I’m doubtful that unemployment will get any worse than it is right now Do you think we’re near end of public sector cuts (I’ve always said that’s the last shoe to drop, along with the entertainment industrial complex)? Last months numbers were ugly. The private sector added roughly 64,000 jobs, but that total was more than offset by a loss of almost 160,000 government jobs. My gut (due to California’s extend and pretend strategy) says one more year (but I certainly hope not). I think private sector employment will offset government cuts, yes. Companies are flush with cash right now, and once they get another quarter of solid earnings they'll have the confidence that they need to start hiring.

16. SFace Follow Befriend (2) 60 threads 1,297 comments Premium

    16   10:02am Fri 22 Oct 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   EBGuy says I’m doubtful that unemployment will get any worse than it is right now Do you think we’re near end of public sector cuts (I’ve always said that’s the last shoe to drop, along with the entertainment industrial complex)? Last months numbers were ugly. The private sector added roughly 64,000 jobs, but that total was more than offset by a loss of almost 160,000 government jobs. My gut (due to California’s extend and pretend strategy) says one more year (but I certainly hope not). As in the case of the past few months, the lost of government jobs were primarily 1M+ census hires, not core goverment workers.

17. EBGuy Follow Befriend 4 threads 2,095 comments

    17   12:49pm Fri 22 Oct 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Ughh... I should've caught that. Here's the net decrease (excluding the Census losses). I'm still concerned that we're not through with gov't rightsizing, yet. Non-farm payroll employment decreased 18,000 in September ex-Census.

18. Kevin Follow Befriend 40 threads 2,652 comments

    18   9:24pm Fri 22 Oct 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   iwog says Yen/US Dollar exchange rate 90, 80 US Dollar/Euro exchange rate $1.40, $1.80 US Dollar/Aussie Dollar exchange rate $1.00, $1.20 US Unemployment (U6) 17%, 14% US Consumer confidence index 50, 75 Gold $1500, $2000 It sounds like you're suggesting that other countries aren't going to be devaluing their currencies. That seems overly optimistic. Japan and Western Europe (with a few exceptions) have enormous debt problems that are going to need to be resolved, and inflation seems like the only answer for them once they get their budgets in order. I'm bullish on inflation in the US, but I think we're going to have a lot of inflation everywhere. I think the only major change in exchange rates over the next year is going to be against RMB.

19. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 272 threads 12,446 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    19   11:50pm Fri 22 Oct 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Kevin says It sounds like you’re suggesting that other countries aren’t going to be devaluing their currencies. That seems overly optimistic. The dollar is due for another plunge. The last low was in 2008, and we've got a failed test of the 2009 high. I think the most likely scenario now is a technical move downward and a new low caused by speculators and the emerging gold bubble. It might not happen, but since everyone else is betting on deflation I might as well take the other side.

20. theoakman Follow Befriend 2 threads 644 comments

    20   2:50pm Mon 25 Oct 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   iwog says Kevin says I’m still not following you here. Why do you think the dollar will devalue but other currencies won’t? From where I’m sitting, I don’t expect a huge change in USD -> currencies of other highly indebted nations, but I do expect a big shift in indebted nations -> debt-free nations If you’re talking about multi-year trends, I agree with you that all currencies will devalue together. The reason I’m picking the dollar to fall flat next years is purely technical. Part of it is that I think the gold bubble will be manufactured, and part of THAT is making sure the dollar hits a new low. At that point I’d sell all my gold (assuming $2000) and go long on the buck. Selling your silver as well?