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Predictions for economic factors on December 31, 2010 and June 30, 2011.

By American in Japan   Follow   Mon, 18 Oct 2010, 10:02pm   8,219 views   74 comments
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For those who dare! Make your predictions for both of these dates (12/31/10) and (6/30/11) for the following:
Yen/US Dollar exchange rate (now 81.3 yen per $US)
US Dollar/Euro exchange rate (now 138.9 $US per Euro)
US Dollar/Aussie Dollar exchange rate (now 0.986 USD per AUS)
S&P 500 (now 1,184.71)
US Unemployment (U6) (now 17.1%)
US Consumer confidence index (now 48.5)

You can just predict some items if you wish.

It will be interesting to look back on this.

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1. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 272 threads 12,446 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

   35   6:56pm Thu 28 Oct 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   RayAmerica says I predict Iwog is forced to admit that the bottom in real estate prices was not 2009. It's not going to be too difficult, after all I've never called someone an idiot, ignorant, or uneducated because they thought the market was going to continue downward. The worst that can happen is that I'll be wrong. You don't have that luxury.

2. American in Japan Follow Befriend (28) 149 threads 1,398 comments

   36   12:02am Thu 11 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Thanks East Coast Bubble Boy and others It will be interesting to see what happens next...

3. SimpleMind Follow Befriend 1 comments Ventura, CA

   37   6:50am Mon 22 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Eventually the world will come to it's senses and the old U.S. dollar will shine once again.. Simple reason for my Simple Mind works like this: 1) I work and work hard for a living, just like many of us do. 2) We all enjoy those fruits one way or another 3) If I work 40 hours and then exchange that work for all the things I buy to make my family and l generally happy, there is no where else that your work that makes the buck and pays the bills can be turned into as much as you get here..Remember, you have nothing more than your own work to turn into what make your life what it is.. What good is a dollar or any currently if it cannot be turned into what we want or need ?? Try buying a new flat screen, new digital camera, a new IPAD, a new fridge or washer, a gallon of gas, or a great cutp of coffee or most anything you may want or need in Europe, Japan, or ?? for your 40 hours week vs our 40 hours work week.. Sure we have a few things that are expensive in comparison to some other countries, but just look at the whole picture.. Am I too material ? Look around your house and then ask yourself if you could be too.... I have zero interest in the “whims of wall street” as to what to do with any extra cash.. I believe in our current leaders ( in general) as I just have to look at what they were handed from our past leaders just 2 years ago. Lehman Brothers was the start of bringing the world to it’s knees and Obama wasn’t there.. How we all forget so fast how we got to this junction in our lives.. If you take all of the politics out of our political parties, I also believe they all want the same thing—To better ourselves.. Too bad that it’s all hidden in the process.. Call it what you like, but I'm betting we'll shine even more in the following years and will run my life accordingly from here on until I’m put out to pasture.. Simple Mind

4. Kevin Follow Befriend 40 threads 2,652 comments

   38   4:29am Fri 3 Dec 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   It looks like everything is right in the range I predicted, if not slightly better on the exchange rates. Like I've said, the people on this forum are way too pessimistic. Kevin says Yen/US Dollar exchange rate (now 81.3 yen per $US) 75, 85 US Dollar/Euro exchange rate (now 138.9 $US per Euro) That’s 138.9 US cents, not dollars. Only off by a few orders of magnitude though! Anyway.. $1.47, $1.32 US Dollar/Aussie Dollar exchange rate (now 98.6 USD per AUS) $1.03, $0.95 S&P 500 (now 1,184.71) 1215, 1308 US Unemployment (U6) (now 17.1%) 17.0%, 14.5% US Consumer confidence index (now 48.5) 49, 53

5. pkennedy Follow Befriend (8) 28 threads 1,339 comments Redwood City, CA

   39   10:23am Fri 3 Dec 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   If you take the advice of the non pessimistic people, you'll find they're doing quite well right now with their investments!

6. RayAmerica Follow Befriend (9) 120 threads 2,591 comments Burbank, CA

   40   12:02pm Sat 4 Dec 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   I predict they will still be using the "Jobless Recovery" blah, blah, blah on 6/11. The Fed will tout the benefits of QE 5 ... Iwog will inform us that hyperinflation is a good thing and that all the bad news in real estate is actually good news and a "great time to buy."

7. Vicente Follow Befriend (8) 203 threads 4,403 comments Davis, CA

   41   6:06pm Sat 4 Dec 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   pkennedy says If you take the advice of the non pessimistic people, you’ll find they’re doing quite well right now with their investments! +1

8. marcus Follow Befriend (5) 166 threads 5,053 comments

   42   6:35pm Sat 4 Dec 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   IF I think gold is destined to have a bear market in the next year taking it down to at least $1000, does that make me an optimist or a pessimist ? Likewise with real estate, if I think it hasn't bottomed yet, does that make me an optimist or a pessimist ?

9. marcus Follow Befriend (5) 166 threads 5,053 comments

   43   6:53pm Sat 4 Dec 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   I find it difficult to reconcile this (specifically his bottom line): http://www.resourceinvestor.com/News/2010/5/Pages/World-Gold-Production-2010.aspx with this: http://www.iom3.org/news/gold-production-costs But, I acknowledge that I know nothing about gold, and that this was just from a quick google search, maybe either or both are propaganda.

10. theoakman Follow Befriend 2 threads 644 comments

    44   9:17am Sun 5 Dec 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   marcus says IF I think gold is destined to have a bear market in the next year taking it down to at least $1000, does that make me an optimist or a pessimist ? Likewise with real estate, if I think it hasn’t bottomed yet, does that make me an optimist or a pessimist ? Dunno, but there were plenty of people predicting $300 gold on patrick.net 2 years ago. They are still around but conveniently stay clear of any gold thread these days.

11. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 272 threads 12,446 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    45   10:11am Sun 5 Dec 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Protected   I don't see how there could be a bear market in gold until we see actual inflation. Right now gold is being driven by the FEAR of inflation combined with more fear over the currency markets and all the other scary things in the world hyped by Newscorp. It seems bizarre, but buy the rumor sell the news is human nature, and people hold their investments much longer on the expectations of something happening than they do if their predictions actually come true. Oil was a perfect example. When was the highest oil price? During the point of highest oil production. When was the lowest oil price? During the point of lowest oil production. Crazy but that's the way things work.

12. marcus Follow Befriend (5) 166 threads 5,053 comments

    46   11:25am Sun 5 Dec 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   theoakman says They are still around but conveniently stay clear of any gold thread these days. Yeah so ? In my experience with trading and human nature, I find that to be far less surprising than your apparent need to repeatedly gloat about your luck with gold (or skill and brilliance if you prefer). iwog says When was the highest oil price? During the point of highest oil production. When was the lowest oil price? During the point of lowest oil production. Crazy but that’s the way things work. I understand, but all such cycles don't lead to extreme bubbles. In fact most don't. I think that at some point sooner or later there will be an incredible gold price bubble. And maybe you and others are right that it will come sooner rather than later. Or maybe many of the gold bulls will have to be beaten up and worn down before it comes. Who knows ? If history is any guide (and it probably isn't), there were two big waves of inflation over the course of about 10 years that preceded the extreme bubble in '79 - '80. I wouldn't go as far as to say that it's always the tail wagging the dog or vica versa.

13. marcus Follow Befriend (5) 166 threads 5,053 comments

    47   12:30pm Sun 5 Dec 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike

14. theoakman Follow Befriend 2 threads 644 comments

    48   3:05pm Sun 5 Dec 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Yeah so ? In my experience with trading and human nature, I find that to be far less surprising than your apparent need to repeatedly gloat about your luck with gold (or skill and brilliance if you prefer). Where was the gloating? I simply stated that others were dead wrong. But that being said, yes, I know they read this thread, so I'm going to jab them as much as possible given their immaturity on the subject 2 years back. And I've said it before, identifying gold as a buy wasn't some brilliant play. It was overly simplistic and obvious. The fact that it supplanted the $1030 level (2008 high) after the full deleveraging crisis of October/November 2008 was a dead giveaway that it was going much higher.

15. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 272 threads 12,446 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    49   5:58pm Sun 5 Dec 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected   marcus says I understand, but all such cycles don’t lead to extreme bubbles. In fact most don’t. I think that at some point sooner or later there will be an incredible gold price bubble. And maybe you and others are right that it will come sooner rather than later. Or maybe many of the gold bulls will have to be beaten up and worn down before it comes. Who knows ? If history is any guide (and it probably isn’t), there were two big waves of inflation over the course of about 10 years that preceded the extreme bubble in ‘79 - ‘80. Yeah, I remember 1980. I was 14 years old and dealing in silver coins at my Junior High school. The inflation of that period was never before seen and has not been seen since. I'm sure there were plenty of people who bought the rumor and sold the news, but inflation just kept shocking people with new highs and new buyers. (the 1975 spike is ALL oil by the way) Once Volker sacrificed the economy and the Hunt Brothers were screwed over by the futures exchange, people sold off pretty quick. I think a case can be made that gold in 1980 was less of an inflation play and more of a sympathetic connection to the silver market which was clearly a media-driven speculative bubble. Today the situation is reversed. Central banks are buying gold again, the currency markets are crazy scared, and silver is being dragged along for the ride.

16. RayAmerica Follow Befriend (9) 120 threads 2,591 comments Burbank, CA

    50   11:56am Mon 6 Dec 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)   I remember during the latter end of the housing bubble there were people (such as Peter Schiff for one) that were predicting a price correction for U.S. residential real estate along the lines of 30 - 40%. They were almost universally laughed to scorn. I also remember the majority of people laughing at the few that were predicting gold prices over $1,000 per ounce back when it was hovering around $400 ... today it's trading at over $1,400. Not too long ago (when it was trading at around $9.00), I remember hearing predictions that silver would be over $35 per ounce ... it briefly broke $30 today. More laughter. What's even funnier, is that most of these same people are predicting a complete economic collapse in the USA. I have never heard so much negativity about the economy coming from people representing a variety of economic classes. I personally knew this was going to happen because Keynesian economics is a proven fraud. Economist Ludwig von Mises warned us decades ago: "There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved." [Human Action, Regnery, 1966, p. 572.] READ that statement again! Is this not what is beginning to happen to our currency? The Fed’s “quantitative easing” is nothing other than debasing our currency via the dramatic expansion of the money supply. It is also a clear sign that we are nearing the end as an economic super power. Monetizing the debt is what the Fed is really doing. The 500 pound gorilla in the room question is: how long will it be before the rest of the world begins its flight from the Dollar? My prediction is that it won’t be long ... possibly by late 2011.

17. Kevin Follow Befriend 40 threads 2,652 comments

    51   2:53pm Mon 27 Dec 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   SohailStar1 says Some analysts predict that Dow can reach 40,000pts in the coming years. Sounds crazy, but artificially it can be done. There are many factors that come in play in such a scenario. "In the coming years" is vague. A 300% increase in the Dow is guaranteed, over a long enough period of time. It went up over 500% from 1939 to 1960, and over 10,000% from 1980 to 2000. However, from 1960 to 1980 it was basically flat, and it's been basically flat since 2000 as well.

18. American in Japan Follow Befriend (28) 149 threads 1,398 comments

    52   10:53pm Tue 28 Dec 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Almost at the first date of prediction now... cheers.

19. FortWayne Follow Befriend (13) 102 threads 3,759 comments

    53   4:33pm Wed 29 Dec 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   xenogear3 says I can predict the predictions. The people on this message board are so negative. Everyone will predict High Unemployment, US dollar tanked, Low Stock Market, Gold and Guns are the king. All right, except the stock market. Stock Market will be through the roof high. - Lower value of dollar means higher stock market. - Gold and guns are always king (thats how you collect rent in Oakland and Los Angeles) - Unemployment only going to go up, why hire an american for 20/hour when a chinese/indian will do it for 50cents? Negative prediction from me would be like this: - China stops lending us money due to fears of national deficit and inflation. - We print money zimbabwe style to pay the deficits (since we never cut spending). - Inflation goes through the roof. - You'll be trading houses for guns because guns keep you alive.

20. tatupu70 Follow Befriend (3) 15 threads 5,606 comments

    54   4:50pm Wed 29 Dec 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Chris_In_LosAngeles says You’ll be trading houses for guns because guns keep you alive. You forgot about planting potatoes

21. Kevin Follow Befriend 40 threads 2,652 comments

    55   6:39pm Wed 29 Dec 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Chris_In_LosAngeles says xenogear3 says I can predict the predictions. The people on this message board are so negative. Everyone will predict High Unemployment, US dollar tanked, Low Stock Market, Gold and Guns are the king. All right, except the stock market. Stock Market will be through the roof high. - Lower value of dollar means higher stock market. - Gold and guns are always king (thats how you collect rent in Oakland and Los Angeles) - Unemployment only going to go up, why hire an american for 20/hour when a chinese/indian will do it for 50cents? Negative prediction from me would be like this: - China stops lending us money due to fears of national deficit and inflation. - We print money zimbabwe style to pay the deficits (since we never cut spending). - Inflation goes through the roof. - You’ll be trading houses for guns because guns keep you alive. People invoking Zimbabwe in the US are idiots. 100% inflation over 5 years would eliminate the US debt entirely if we had a balanced budget. If we don't have a balanced budget, no amount of inflation would touch the debt. America's problems today are not the same as Zimbabwe's (a completely destabilized, chaotic country that underwent massive social change and was never wealthy to begin with) or Weimar Germany's (a country that owed debt in Gold to its neighbors). Yes, there will be inflation. Yes, it will be significant. No, we won't be pushing around barrels of money to buy bread.

22. FortWayne Follow Befriend (13) 102 threads 3,759 comments

    56   8:31pm Wed 29 Dec 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Kevin says Chris_In_LosAngeles says xenogear3 says I can predict the predictions. The people on this message board are so negative. Everyone will predict High Unemployment, US dollar tanked, Low Stock Market, Gold and Guns are the king. All right, except the stock market. Stock Market will be through the roof high. - Lower value of dollar means higher stock market. - Gold and guns are always king (thats how you collect rent in Oakland and Los Angeles) - Unemployment only going to go up, why hire an american for 20/hour when a chinese/indian will do it for 50cents? Negative prediction from me would be like this: - China stops lending us money due to fears of national deficit and inflation. - We print money zimbabwe style to pay the deficits (since we never cut spending). - Inflation goes through the roof. - You’ll be trading houses for guns because guns keep you alive. People invoking Zimbabwe in the US are idiots. 100% inflation over 5 years would eliminate the US debt entirely if we had a balanced budget. If we don’t have a balanced budget, no amount of inflation would touch the debt. America’s problems today are not the same as Zimbabwe’s (a completely destabilized, chaotic country that underwent massive social change and was never wealthy to begin with) or Weimar Germany’s (a country that owed debt in Gold to its neighbors). Yes, there will be inflation. Yes, it will be significant. No, we won’t be pushing around barrels of money to buy bread. Why would it eliminate the debt? It is right that it would eliminate past debt. but because we are not living within a balanced budget it would mean new debt would arise (and now under inflated value) faster than old debt would be paid off. We'd just be where we started off, except everyone would be very very poor.

23. Kevin Follow Befriend 40 threads 2,652 comments

    57   9:07pm Wed 29 Dec 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Chris_In_LosAngeles says Why would it eliminate the debt? It is right that it would eliminate past debt. but because we are not living within a balanced budget it would mean new debt would arise (and now under inflated value) faster than old debt would be paid off. We’d just be where we started off, except everyone would be very very poor. Did you really only read the first sentence?

24. American in Japan Follow Befriend (28) 149 threads 1,398 comments

    58   9:12pm Fri 31 Dec 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Well, it is the end of 2010. Happy New Year!

25. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 272 threads 12,446 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    59   10:59pm Fri 31 Dec 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Protected   Time to score your predictions. Here are the Dec. 31 numbers: 81.2 Yen/US Dollar exchange rate 133.8 US Dollar/Euro exchange rate 1.023 US Dollar/Aussie Dollar exchange rate 1257.64 S&P 500 17.0% US Unemployment (U6) 52.5 US Consumer confidence index $1421.60 gold My guesses: Yen/US Dollar exchange rate 90 US Dollar/Euro exchange rate $1.40 US Dollar/Aussie Dollar exchange rate $1.00 S&P No guess US Unemployment (U6) 17% US Consumer confidence index 50 Gold $1500

26. Kevin Follow Befriend 40 threads 2,652 comments

    60   11:50pm Fri 31 Dec 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Even I was overly pessimistic: My guesses were: 75 Yen -> dollar $1.47 US$ -> Euro $1.03 USD -> AUD (close!) 1215 S&P (way too low) 17% U6 (nailed it) 49 CCI What I'm utterly shocked by is just how much better things are now than I expected them to be, and I was the optimistic ones. I don't think I'm going to revise my June 30th predictions though, except for the S&P. I'm predicting the S&P at 1400 in June.

27. American in Japan Follow Befriend (28) 149 threads 1,398 comments

    61   8:15am Sat 1 Jan 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)   @Iwog Thanks! I was about to put them in, but I got caught up in the New Years Eve festivities... I was close on the two exchange rates, but way off on the S& P 500.

28. American in Japan Follow Befriend (28) 149 threads 1,398 comments

    62   10:29pm Sat 12 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Well I am really off so far on the S&P 500. Might go down as one of the dumbest things written ...

29. FortWayne Follow Befriend (13) 102 threads 3,759 comments

    63   7:36am Wed 2 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (2)   I was right on the stock market numbers overall. It was kind of obvious, rich people don't let their friends fail.

30. john1 Follow Befriend (1) 1 threads 4 comments Los Angeles, CA

    64   5:03pm Mon 7 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Gold at 10,000!

31. American in Japan Follow Befriend (28) 149 threads 1,398 comments

    65   10:06am Fri 1 Apr 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Halfway point between the two... I am off on the S&P 500 but closer on the $A and ¥ exchange rates... I wonder if high oil prices will pull the stock market down a bit...

32. American in Japan Follow Befriend (28) 149 threads 1,398 comments

    66   7:41am Tue 26 Apr 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Consumer confidence up at 64.4... (not sure why, though) I wonder if they disproportionately ask those in the top 1%...

33. terriDeaner Follow Befriend (7) 70 threads 1,151 comments

    67   8:55am Tue 26 Apr 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   American in Japan says Consumer confidence up at 64.4… (not sure why, though) People are probably becoming more confident that they are spending all their money on food and gas these days...

34. FortWayne Follow Befriend (13) 102 threads 3,759 comments

    68   11:08am Tue 26 Apr 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   American in Japan says Consumer confidence up at 64.4… (not sure why, though) I kind of wonder how they measure it too, and which areas where confidence is so well off. Last month couple more of my friends joined the unemployed ranks, for some of us confidence in this economy is very low.

35. American in Japan Follow Befriend (28) 149 threads 1,398 comments

    69   5:28am Wed 27 Apr 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Perhaps this gives a shade of info: http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Articles/2011/04/26/Consumer-Confidence-Edges-Up-Despite-Gloomy-Forecasts.aspx

36. American in Japan Follow Befriend (28) 149 threads 1,398 comments

    70   7:27am Tue 28 Jun 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Consumer confidence is 58.5 for June. More to come... http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Consumers-confidence-down-in-apf-4216578380.html

37. American in Japan Follow Befriend (28) 149 threads 1,398 comments

    71   6:03pm Tue 28 Jun 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Higher than I thought at 58.5. the Euro did better than I thought too ... looking for unemployment.

38. American in Japan Follow Befriend (28) 149 threads 1,398 comments

    72   6:43am Thu 30 Jun 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   S&P 500 is 1313.9 USD/JPY = 80.4350 AUD/USD = 1.072 EUR/USD = 1.446 U6 unemployement (May 2011 is the latest) 17.4%

39. American in Japan Follow Befriend (28) 149 threads 1,398 comments

    73   6:45am Mon 4 Jul 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Thanks for your predictions everyone. Happy July 4th!

40. American in Japan Follow Befriend (28) 149 threads 1,398 comments

    74   9:38pm Mon 4 Jul 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Thanks Thunderlips! I've wanted to close this post up! I was really close on that one (over by 0.1%). My S&P 500 guesses were way under. I underestimed the power of easy money. I didn't think the euro would stay as high either... I prefer U6 to U3 or the other indices, but that is another discussion.... The participation (comments) was OK, but at least thousands looked at this...thanks again.

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