I just finished reading the book Poorly Made In China and have to say it was excellent.
The author explains from personal experience how the the factory system in China offers very low prices to us not just because of the low cost of labor, but mostly because China wins in the long run by getting American and European product designs and manufacturing ability moved permanently to China.
So the Chinese have manufactured at or below their own costs for us, but in return, we have given away our competitive advantages, and they know this very well. It was their plan to begin with. Now that it's too late, we see that nearly all our manufacturing is done over there, and we are dependent on them. They will raise prices, and we will have no choice but to pay. Our working class is doubly screwed: first, they lost their jobs, and soon they will have to pay more for basic manufactured goods as well.
The logic for US manufacturers used to seem clear: China would produce at lower cost, so they must move manufacturing to China or lose business. What they didn't see was that once they had nothing more to offer in the way of knowledge and factory transfer to China, the game would be over and they and America would be the losers. It would actually be treasonous if it weren't just sheer greed and stupidity on their part.
This has big implications for the housing market as well. Loss of jobs and inflation in consumer goods prices will mean contined deflation in US housing prices. There's less income, and more of that will be spent on imports, leaving less for housing.
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Austinhousingbubble says
Child labor, forced labor? I never said anything about that, so why are you bringing it up? That's a tiny part of what is going on. China definitely has some improvements to make. Hell, we have some glaring injustices here in the US. And seriously, you don't think 90% of kids were put to work at farms once they were able, before they decided to industrialize? Or in any pre-industrial country in history for that matter?
The bulk of what is going on is good for most Chinese, and I don't understand how you can just dismiss that fact. Did I mention that 600 million of them, over half the population, no longer live in poverty like they did 25 years ago?
It really blows my mind that people think a country can just snap it's fingers, and everything we in the US worked for for over 100 years for will just happen in an instant.
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You didn't have to - they're baked into the pie of any discussion involving China's wealth expansion and exploitation. Incidentally, any labor reform proposals have been soundly squelched by the very global corporate entities you cite as blameless opportunists of economic policy -- namely the corporations on the board of AmCham, including Wal-Mart, Microsoft, Dell, Google, Nike, AT&T and other megas.
In fact, you don't need to be a professor of labor economics to understand just how tiny this phenomenon is not. Perhaps from your vantage it merely seems tiny. That's the general idea; out of sight-out of mind.
Of course...
That's not really the same, and besides, America wasn't subsidizing it -- that is the difference. By subsidizing and benefiting from long-distance indentured servitude, we become a proponent of it, and end up undermining our own hard-won workers rights in the process. Have you noticed the tone these days of the Free Marketer's rhetoric? We need to become more competitive with China; We need to abolish the minimum wage; The American workforce should expect a decrease in their standards of living, blah blah...
I've heard this oversubtle argument before. There are a lot of differences, but one major one is that every piece of labor reform that was fought for in this country (and I do mean fight, often times to death) took place on a highly visible stage, where American workers were creating products consumed by other American workers. This dynamic easily coalesced into a sense of unification and solidarity so that when a highly visible episode like the Triangle Shirtwaist fire resulted in the unnecessary deaths of a 146 workers, it caused a labor backlash which gradually helped to effectuate meaningful reform, culminating in the Fair Labor Standards Act of '38. With China, it's totally different; again, out of sight- out of mind. It's really a grotesque example of the American public's cognitive dissonance. And don't give me the party-line about how working in a dung-hole in Beijing is so much better than subsistence farming in the country, because that's another oversubtle argument.
Anyway, getting back to the original point -- yes, I think you can easily blame the multinational behemoths for the squeezing of the American middle class and you should. Next in line is the American consumer. My .2.
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JoeKillian says
The same was said regarding Microsoft, 20 years ago, but that didnt prevent them from being dominate in the Software business today. The graveyard is full of former better companies. I also need not remind you of the Japanese 'inferior' products in Heavy equipment, auto, semiconductor, consumer electronics. They two leaped forward past the US as #1 in each industry.
There is no US based company experienced CEO/CFO/Founder that believes we cant be overtaken by some foreign competitor. Never never undestimate your competition!
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This is all nice, yet note the sentence in the article: "There are no current plans to go into mass production".
You can invent the best technology in the world, but if you don't have excess capital and favorable regulations to deploy it widely enough to achieve the economy of scale needed to displace older technologies, you are not going to win.
I like Stratasys - the company featured in that article that manufactures the 3D printers in a suburb of Minneapolis, yet they were around since 1980-ies, and still their products are nowhere near the mass scale deployment.
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thomas.wong1986 says
I should have said:
The best U.S. technologies are those where China is at least two steps behind.
I did say technologies not companies. A good example would be artificial intelligence which is an area that the U.S. still is out in front by way of companies like Google whose hidden agenda is to develop the worlds first commercially useful AI. But of course the first use will be military. Developing the worlds fastest computer - China - is really not the best way to become the most proficient in AI programming. The first country to develop an AI that can write improvements and extensions to its own code will probably always stay at least two steps ahead of other countries, assuming the AI allows that.
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Austinhousingbubble says
Indentured servitude? I think you've got a pretty warped idea of what is going on in China. Sure, it's out of sight to us, but it's not to the Chinese themselves. Some foreign corporations opposed the change in Chinese labor law, but they lost. The Chinese government calls the shots, not foreign corporations.
I agree that rhetoric is awful. And disingenuous too. They say we need to become more like China so the government needs to get out of the way. Of course this is absurd, since China is still largely a command economy, with key industries being wholly run by government, and there is no way they could have pulled off the growth they had without that. If anything the China success story is evidence that it takes a guiding hand of the government for a nation to thrive. I'd also agree the German model is a pretty good one.
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JoeKillian says
AI, has been talked about since HAL9000, but even if you did have something like that, it would not be a product corporate Ameria would buy into. The technology boom was sucessfull because we made products which corporate Ameria, and global companies needed to handle vast amounts of data and increase productivity. AI will never be used for military purpose, that would end of us all.
Google is an Advertising company with no experience in Corporate and Enterprise markets. They say this and that, but come up short everytime. They are more Madison Avenue than SV tech company. They use other peoples/company technology to create advertising outlets to the mass public. Do you want everthing you use such as a cell phone or other products google TV at home to be an advertisng billboard powered by Google/Facebook collecting information and selling it to others ? I dont... World has lost its mind!
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Thomas,
that's going a bit overboard, using Hitler to make your point, don't you think?
Not a threat, more of a concern: for your own sake and maybe Patrick's too, consider editing your post.
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Tenouncetrout says
CEO's have bigger salaries because of unions? I'd love to hear you try to explain that one.
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Here is the Warren Buffet take on this a while ago.
http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/growing.pdf
Pretty much inline with the original post.
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In the local gigging music business they call that "Grease Spotted".
That's when you go out to your van to get your gear, and the only thing left is a grease spot, where your van was parked.
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illustrateth's website
Has anybody read the Economist article on 3D printing? If the cost gets low enough, it could also bring some manufacturing back here. It makes no sense to ship one customized item all the way from China, when you can print it a few miles away, using less raw material.
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illustrateth's website
P.S. . . . If I wasn't totally occupied with a toddler and a baby, I'd be brushing up on my 3D software skills right now!
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PPete says
Not for long. Stuff can be imported from other places if the Chinese wants too much money for something.
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MoneySheep says
Carter tried to sell that to us in the 70's. Americans weren't having any of it.
Then Reagan brought us, "Sacrifice tomorrow for a better today."
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Nomograph says
They said this about Japan.
"Oh the Japanese are a low wage economy, only fit for tin toys, and motor scooters"
Well Japan built Sony into a brand leader above RCA, Phillips, Zenith,
Japan paid wages above America.
They said this about Korea "Oh the Koreans are only good at low wage, tin toys and cheap Hyundais".
The Koreans became leaders with LG, KIA, Hyundai.
China is becoming a brand leader, look at their new military weapons, Huawei Routers, Cars....
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Who here wants to trade their status in America with the equivalent status in China? IOW if you're the median wage earner in the U.S., would you trade your lot here to be the median wage earner in China? I'll even throw in the ability to speak/read/write chinese for free.
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Patrick says
I don't believe this. When the cost of doing business becomes too high in China, Companies just move there operations to another country, Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, where ever. You have to realize in most cases when a company "moves" overseas, they are not building there own factory and hiring there own workers, they just subcontract to who ever can fill the order.
This is both a blessing and a curse. Start up costs are minimal, but you really don't control production. The subcontractor is controlling production and if they can get a another suppler to sell them I don't know, lets say paint for a cheaper price, they are going to do it. It's only the minor detail that it's lead based paint they are using to produce children's toys.
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malcolm2001 says
I agree, Robots are better for America. If the #1 cost factor (Labor) is basically eliminated, where do you want to produce your goods? An over seas factory owned by a subcontractor where you don't control production. Where you have little if any control over quality? Timely delivery? Shipping headaches? Or right here in America, when you can drive over to the factory from your headquarters and monitor production?
There will still be jobs, anyone who works on computers will tell you anything with a lot of moving parts requires continuous maintenance. The new jobs will be in the robotic repair/maintenance business. It will be the Chinese that will find there jobs moved overseas, this time, back to America.
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TechGromit says
The book does document pretty well how the Chinese had to be given manufacturing ability and intellectual property by American companies in order to set up their own factories. The guy was there and saw it happening.
TechGromit says
That could be a good thing, if we can train people well enough to create and maintain those robots.
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We should design an army of robots to take over China.
BAM. Problem solved.
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freak80 says
We might design it, but then the robots will be made in China and the Chinese will make them to take over us instead.
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Whether due to overzealous bureaucratic regulatory hurdles, high wages for workers or the highest corporate taxes in the entire industrialized world....manufacturing in the US is extraordinarily difficult to do unless you have a very high ticket, large or very complex product.
I have been traveling to China since 1997 to various factories where our products are made. Once we did so strictly due to cost and that advantage....now we do so because the technology or materials is often unavailable. As China has access to the same CAD-CAM design equipment as the rest of the world - with scores of quality engineers, too - we stopped even designing in the US ~ 2006.
Our factories are BSCI certified (worldwide social standards) and our primary Chinese factory could be plunked down in Austria, Australia or Arkansas and have the same work conditions. The Chinese are increasingly impressive in what they do.
The sad truth is that for the majority of simple products that we use and buy every day...it's simply impossible for them to be made in the US at ANY price that ANY of you would be willing for fork over for it.
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jsmarket says
Simply wrong. Even at price, China is becoming expensive and a 30-50% tarriff can work wonders in leveling the playing field-considering they subsidize throught heir cheap currency.
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jsmarket says
Not true. Japan's rate is higher.
And even though the US technically has high corporate tax rates, the actual corporate taxes paid are far lower because there are so many loopholes:
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/03/business/economy/03rates.html
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Patrick says
It creates jobs for tax accountants. ;-)
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burritos says
Bear in Mind, China has over 150 million middle class people by our standards. Yes the median chinese is still an "Ant Person" or a "Crab Dweller", but, their top ten percent is living a lot like the middle 50% used to live like here.
Their top 1% is just as well off as our 1%.
And frankly, it's not much better being an american peasant then a chinese peasant.
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TechGromit says
if it's all made by robots, where are the jobs? If you replace 8,000 auto workers with robots, then what? Where do these people go? Do they all become Re/Max agents selling houses? And if the robots need 8000 repair techs, do you save any labor?
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Patrick says
Exactly. So much manufacturing has moved to China that now all manufacturing has to be done there. The infrastructure, the trade routes, the shipping lanes all revolve around China doing the production. Hence, if your manufacturing plant, big or small, isn't in China, it does not have access to the large trade pipelines and infrastructure.
Whenever any power is concentrated enough into one area, it seeps all similar power from the remaining competition.
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lostand confused says
Not likely, most of the high tech manufacturing equipment is still made here in the United States. China is good mass production, but not good at designing and building highly specialized manufacturing equipment.
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patb says
Your missing the bigger picture. Pick up just about any object in your house and chances are it will say, "Made in China". So now if it were to say "Made in the USA". Just think of the thousands of robotic factories that will have to open in the United States to make all the stuff now made in China. That will employ ten of thousands of robot repair techs to keep them humming along. I can't guarantee and net gain on jobs but we can certainly compete better than the way it is now, uneducated foreign factory workers making 2 dollars a day.
Also you need to remember robots are good at doing the same thing over and over, the more specialized equipment that you not stamping out ten thousand units, it doesn't make sense to use robots, so some manufacturing will still be done by skilled workers.
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US Manufacturing 40 years ago accounted for around 23% of the worlds goods!
Today, the US accounts for around 23% of the worlds goods. And over the course of those 40 years, it's been around 23% of the worlds goods.
Less jobs, same manufacturing output. Mind you, we aren't filling the wal marts of the world. We're filling the big ticket items.
US manufacturing is roughly 30% more expensive than china's. US average wage is $22, china was somewhere around $3. However, productivity made up much of the difference. This means roughly $22 vs $15 for china. Chinese wages are going up about 15% a year, which means it will still take a few years for that $3 to get around $8, but with compound increases, we're looking at around another 5 years until their costs are the same. Unless, they float their currency. It's estimated their currency is around 20% under valued at this point. That would close the gap.
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Patrick says
Was the book printed in China?
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Darn, I should have checked! It was a library book.
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Patrick says
Not likely, most books are printed in the United States, due to our abundance of trees.
If you click on the book image, it will bring you to Amazon.com and the preview of the 2nd page clearly says, "Printed in the USA".
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Andy from CityData.com says
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Patrick says
You cant manufacture below your own costs.. but you can sell below your own cost to foreign competitors (what is what we in the USA are) to take away our market shares..
be it toys or be it tech products... The chinese didnt invent this as an export strategy.. they borrowed it from the Japanese who used it since 1960s. The japanese and koreans have been dumping below costs for years.
So began the Clone Wars.
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TechGromit says
They said the same about Japan.. right before they got into the Semiconductor business that require highly specialized wafer mfg and test... and in 5 years they pretty much blew 10 mfg of DRAM chips from the US markets. We had some 70% world production... now its some 70% by Japanese. http://www.tel.com/about/tech/index.htm
http://www.tel.com/product/index.htm
A few years later they tried to take the CPU business but were blunted by Intel. So there project was killed off by legal import bans due to IP theft.
Where does Apple gets its parts.. Samsung (Koreans).. never underestimate the other guy...
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Didn't China blatantly steal high speed train technology from Japan? Or, Japan just gave it away?
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pkennedy says
Please post your sources, Everything I look up on china wages is from .75 to 1.74 per hour for an auto plant worker. I read averages of $200 a month working 6-7 days a week. China productivity is many times higher than the USA and their not moving factories away to other countries to get more competitive like the USA. The cost to make a pair of bluejeans in china is like 2 dollars. In the USA the sell between 10-45 dollars, we've become marketing & distributors with high margins