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Get ready California, prices are going up in 2011! (then back down)

By iwog   Follow   Mon, 15 Nov 2010, 1:58pm   26,292 views   491 comments
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1. Fisk Follow Befriend (1) 8 threads 242 comments

   12   3:42pm Mon 15 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   These 3 plots clearly show a delayed correlation between the asking and selling prices, and the prediction that ongoing increase of asking prices strongly predicts higher selling prices few months down the road appears well-established. The question remains, though, to what extent BOTH these trends show the price of SAME properties (aka Case-Shiller) rather than an effect of changing mix of offered or sold properties, such as the shift of deals to better neighborhoods (e.g., due to foreclosure and short sale activity going upmarket).

2. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,790 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

   13   4:06pm Mon 15 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   These three charts cover exactly 2 years of data. years that have been anything but normal... Might as well plot your weight from today to christmas, and then predict you will weigh 500 pounds by next year.

3. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,534 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

   14   4:08pm Mon 15 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   robertoaribas says These three charts cover exactly 2 years of data. years that have been anything but normal… Might as well plot your weight from today to christmas, and then predict you will weigh 500 pounds by next year. So once again data is trumped by a blind assertion that the data isn't accurate. Viva blind assertions!!!!!

4. ch_tah Follow Befriend 3 threads 391 comments

   15   4:21pm Mon 15 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   iwog says ch_tah says Looking at the graphs, there does seem to be a direct correlation between asking prices and future sales prices. It looks like there’s a month to 3 month lag between asking and sales prices. Maybe it is coincidence or just Iwog picking examples that support his theory, but compared to other predictors out there, it seems pretty accurate. I didn’t really cherry pick my examples. I just picked the three largest markets in California. I know you did. For the most part, I agree with your point. But, it is possible this will be like your argument for a gold bubble where you bought options. The charts backed up your argument well, but a gold spike didn't occur in the needed timeframe.

5. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,534 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

   16   4:29pm Mon 15 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   ch_tah says I know you did. For the most part, I agree with your point. But, it is possible this will be like your argument for a gold bubble where you bought options. The charts backed up your argument well, but a gold spike didn’t occur in the needed timeframe. Yup, you're right, but keep in mind that when I wrote my gold spike article: 1. I said I was gambling. 2. I said at best I was bucking 2:1 odds AGAINST it happening. (The payout was like 30 to 1) 3. gold went up anyway although not fast enough for me to cash in my options. The odds that asking prices will disconnect to the point where sales prices continue falling past January are practically nil.

6. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,790 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

   17   4:50pm Mon 15 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Listing prices kept going up at the end of the bubble dimwit duck, while sales volume dropped. THEN sales prices dropped. back your charts up to 2005...

7. Huntington Moneyworth III, Esq Follow Befriend 53 threads 658 comments

   18   4:54pm Mon 15 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)   I agree with Iwog. Prices are set to go up from here on out. STORES ARE PACKED with Christmas shoppers. You can't park within 50 miles of the nearest shopping mall here in Los Angeles. People are flush and they are spending money like it grows on trees. Americans are no longer fearing the future and they are returning to the glory days of big pimping/spending lots of Gs. As is typical of big media, they are a day late and a dollar short. The BOOM is here.

8. Fireballsocal Follow Befriend 3 threads 103 comments San Bernardino, CA

   19   5:32pm Mon 15 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Asking prices here in the Inland Empire are dropping, on average 5% from 6 months ago. The list of homes for sale is growing and homes are staying on the market much longer than they were 6 months ago.

9. justme Follow Befriend (2) 33 threads 3,458 comments

   20   5:39pm Mon 15 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   robertoaribas says back your charts up to 2005… Exactly. The duck is suffering from time-selective chart myopia as usual. Here's the deal: The housing market is and has been on Government+Fed life support ever since 2007. Any price increase is dependent on still further "heroics" from Government+Fed in concert. Why are we even discussing whether prices "should" go up or down? The main relevant parameters really are QE1, QE2, QE3, (et al) together with housing tax credits, unemployment numbers and personal income numbers. And underwriting standards. This idea that asking prices reliably "predict" sales prices is hogwash. It has to do with mix (as someone already said), an overhang of wishful thinking from the tax-credit euphoria, and also optimistic assumptions about the aforementioned underlying parameters. The crowd of house sellers has been wrong about future prices before, and they may very well be wrong again. Iwog himself is simply making a bet that Govt+Fed intervention will be enough to inflate our way out of the bubble, at the expense of the savers and general taxpayers. That's all there is to it. He is hiding behind some mumbo-jumbo chart theory that has nothing to do with reality, and claiming that Govt+Fed intervention has nothing to do with it. But Govt+Fed intervention has had EVERYTHING to do with it, so far.

10. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,534 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    21   5:40pm Mon 15 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Fireballsocal says Asking prices here in the Inland Empire are dropping, on average 5% from 6 months ago. The list of homes for sale is growing and homes are staying on the market much longer than they were 6 months ago. I'm sure that's true, and the Inland Empire along with areas of San Joaquin, Vegas, and parts of Florida are dead zones as far as I'm concerned and will probably remain that way for a decade at least. However I think it's important that people realize how much these ghost towns are dragging national market indexes down. I'm seeing lots of people with Inland Empire wishes bumping into San Francisco home prices and getting angry that price reality doesn't conform to their expectations. Just because a house lost 70% in San Bernardino doesn't mean that homes in fortress areas need to catch up. In fact home sales in fortress areas are MUCH more rooted in the real economy than a McMansion built in the desert with a 100 mile commute.

11. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,534 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    22   5:44pm Mon 15 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   justme says This idea that asking prices “predict” sales prices is hogwash. I'm going to save us a bunch of time and post our conversation ahead of time. You're welcome to prove me wrong by actually going on record here. (but you wont) Iwog: So you expect sales to keep declining after December? Justme: No I didn't say that at all. Iwog: So you think I'll be right and sales prices WILL follow asking prices? Justme: I didn't say that either. Iwog: So what's your point again? Justme: (silence)

12. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,534 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    23   5:47pm Mon 15 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   justme says Iwog himself is simply making a bet that Govt+Fed intervention will be enough to inflate our way out of the bubble, at the expense of the savers and general taxpayers. That’s all there is to it. He is hiding behind some mumbo-jumbo chart theory that has nothing to do with reality, and claiming that Govt+Fed intervention has nothing to do with it. No justme, please stop making things up. I've never once claimed that government intervention has nothing to do with higher prices. I've claimed repeatedly in MANY THREADS that all my predictions ASSUMED government interference. It's built into all my predictions. You failed to take them into account, which is why you were wrong and I was right.

13. justme Follow Befriend (2) 33 threads 3,458 comments

    24   5:52pm Mon 15 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Iwog, perhaps you should stop having imaginary back-to-the-future conversations with your imaginary friend, and instead address the main point: The main relevant parameters (that control housing prices) really are QE1, QE2, QE3, (et al) together with housing tax credits, unemployment numbers and personal income numbers. And underwriting standards. True or false? Or are you going to claim again that govt intervention have nothing to do with the price bump this summer?

14. justme Follow Befriend (2) 33 threads 3,458 comments

    25   5:53pm Mon 15 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Everyone, please raise your hand if you recall Iwog saying that the price bump this summer was not due to the tax break.

15. tatupu70 Follow Befriend (3) 15 threads 5,627 comments

    26   6:12pm Mon 15 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   justme says Here’s the deal: The housing market is and has been on Government+Fed life support ever since 2007. Any price increase is dependent on still further “heroics” from Government+Fed in concert. Does government interference somehow create a strong correlation between asking prices and selling prices 3 months later? That wouldn't have been there? Because I don't see what the point is otherwise...

16. Bap33 Follow Befriend (3) 12 threads 3,097 comments

    27   6:12pm Mon 15 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   I must admit, that dang $8K was the point this summer ... but, not sure who said it. I know it was said because I asked how much it effected stuff. I think IWOG said it didn't do much anyways (good or bad), if I remember correctly. So, maybe it was someone else that did say what you mention, justme? I don't recall who exactly. Anyone else hear that many folks are having to give it back?

17. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,790 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    28   6:24pm Mon 15 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Recap: 1. Bank of America etc. stop or slowdown foreclosures, due to robosigning scandal and state attorney general investigations... 2. 10% to20% drop in foreclosures depending on area. 3. Those foreclosures don't get listed. 4. Lack of foreclosures being listed leads to a change in the mix of homes for sale, ergo average listing price goes up. Yeah, couldn't be that change in mix thing... Those foreclosures are still coming duck brain.

18. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,534 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    29   6:34pm Mon 15 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   justme says True or false? Or are you going to claim again that govt intervention have nothing to do with the price bump this summer? Now "government intervention" has somehow morphed into "$8000 tax credit". Lovely way to manipulate the language there. I said the $8000 tax credit had a small effect. On a 10 year graph sometime in 2015, it will be so small that you will hardly be able to see it.

19. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,534 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    30   6:37pm Mon 15 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   robertoaribas says Recap: 1. Bank of America etc. stop or slowdown foreclosures, due to robosigning scandal and state attorney general investigations… 2. 10% to20% drop in foreclosures depending on area. 3. Those foreclosures don’t get listed. 4. Lack of foreclosures being listed leads to a change in the mix of homes for sale, ergo average listing price goes up. Yeah, couldn’t be that change in mix thing… Those foreclosures are still coming duck brain. Great theory, however all three charts show prices increasing from early August onward. Bank of America halted foreclosures in October two months later. Nice try, but your time-line is broken.

20. gameisrigged Follow Befriend 3 threads 617 comments

    31   6:47pm Mon 15 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Uh, sorry, Mr. Lawrence Quackenyun, but your data is noisy. We're all proud of you that you discovered Redfin, but those are charts of the individual CITIES, not the regions. A much better source is Housing Tracker, which tracks asking prices for REGIONS. And if you had bothered to look there, you would have seen that asking prices are in fact going DOWN for all the areas you referenced. http://www.housingtracker.net/asking-prices/los-angeles-california/ http://www.housingtracker.net/asking-prices/san-diego-california/ http://www.housingtracker.net/asking-prices/san-francisco-california/ http://www.housingtracker.net/asking-prices/san-jose-california/ So now that we've established that you're dead wrong, I don't suppose you'll admit that the CONVERSE is true, that falling asking prices precede falling sales prices? No, I didn't think so.

21. Hysteresis Follow Befriend (2) 14 threads 648 comments

    32   6:48pm Mon 15 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   all i see are red lines (sold $/sqft) heading down or flat; and we're not even in the softest months for sales. prices will continue to crater this christmas/january. yay.

22. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,790 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    33   6:55pm Mon 15 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Iwog: when its convenient for you, a couple months doesn't a trend make. When it isn't convenient for you, is a verifiable burning bush in the desert signal from God. When you want, Case-Shiller is perfect, when you don't it doesn't matter at all... Sales are down, prices are down, who cares if listing prices on average are going up for a couple of months? Could be that that sudden drop in purchasing is leaving higher home prices listed (ie investors picking off the bottom end, but anything over median is sitting) that would explain the trend starting several months ago, and neatly tie in with: losing first time buyers after the credit ended. Now, run your raving nonsense and bombast. I now have 3 homes under contract (investor picking off the best price/rent ratios... see above) that kick the crap out of your concord home numbers...

23. gameisrigged Follow Befriend 3 threads 617 comments

    34   6:58pm Mon 15 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   robertoaribas says Sales are down, prices are down, who cares if listing prices on average are going up for a couple of months? But they AREN'T even going up. See my previous post.

24. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,790 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    35   7:01pm Mon 15 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   yeah game is rigged. good catch.

25. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,534 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    36   7:02pm Mon 15 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)   robertoaribas says Now, run your raving nonsense and bombast. I know have 3 homes under contract (investor picking off the best price/rent ratios… see above) that kick the crap out of your concord home numbers… I didn't realize this was a contest. It's nice you're kicking the crap out of my Concord numbers before you've even collected a single rent check. I'd love that kind of performance!

26. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,534 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    37   7:05pm Mon 15 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   gameisrigged says Uh, sorry, Mr. Lawrence Quackenyun, but your data is noisy. We’re all proud of you that you discovered Redfin, but those are charts of the individual CITIES, not the regions. A much better source is Housing Tracker, which tracks asking prices for REGIONS. And if you had bothered to look there, you would have seen that asking prices are in fact going DOWN for all the areas you referenced. The reason I didn't bother to check Housing Tracker is that your median housing numbers were trashed mutilated, ripped, shredded, and raped on this very board not 2 years ago. If we're going to go back to talking about median, I think you need to issue a memo. Ask justme since he was one of the ones doing the mutilation. lol All you've done is verify that less expensive homes are selling better than high end homes. I agree with that. Redfin corrects for this somewhat by using $ per sq. ft. Case-Shiller goes a step further, but that data is a long way off.

27. Fisk Follow Befriend (1) 8 threads 242 comments

    38   8:40pm Mon 15 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   iwog says Redfin corrects for this somewhat by using $ per sq. ft. Case-Shiller goes a step further, but that data is a long way off. Correct, "somewhat". But it doesn't correct for the neighborhood within a city, so, if the mix of deals moves from bad areas to good, the price/sq. ft. would increase. Such move would naturally follow the foreclosures and short sales shifting upmarket (as from East Bay to Peninsula and SV, for example).

28. Cvoc13 Follow Befriend (9) 6 threads 194 comments Dublin, CA Cvoc13's website

    39   8:53pm Mon 15 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   The shorter term, the info and or observation seems correct, BUT still in five years, much lower prices all of Ca. IMHO

29. gameisrigged Follow Befriend 3 threads 617 comments

    40   8:58pm Mon 15 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   iwog says gameisrigged says Uh, sorry, Mr. Lawrence Quackenyun, but your data is noisy. We’re all proud of you that you discovered Redfin, but those are charts of the individual CITIES, not the regions. A much better source is Housing Tracker, which tracks asking prices for REGIONS. And if you had bothered to look there, you would have seen that asking prices are in fact going DOWN for all the areas you referenced. The reason I didn’t bother to check Housing Tracker is that your median housing numbers were trashed mutilated, ripped, shredded, and raped on this very board not 2 years ago. If we’re going to go back to talking about median, I think you need to issue a memo. Ask justme since he was one of the ones doing the mutilation. lol All you’ve done is verify that less expensive homes are selling better than high end homes. I agree with that. Redfin corrects for this somewhat by using $ per sq. ft. Case-Shiller goes a step further, but that data is a long way off. Wow, every time you get spanked, you just come back for more. Housing Tracker breaks down the data into 3 tiers, and EVERY tier shows a decline. If it were "just showing that less expensive homes are selling better than high end homes", then the 25 percentile would show an INCREASE, not a decrease. So much for your clumsy attempt to disregard anything that isn't sufficiently bullish for you. Did you even bother to look at my links, or did you just dismiss it out of hand? Plus, your criticism is not only unfounded, it doesn't even make logical sense. Housing Tracker is showing ASKING prices. It has nothing to do with how homes are selling.

30. gameisrigged Follow Befriend 3 threads 617 comments

    41   9:03pm Mon 15 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   iwog says If we’re going to go back to talking about median, I think you need to issue a memo. Huh? What the fuck do you think those blue and red lines represent on the charts you posted?

31. gameisrigged Follow Befriend 3 threads 617 comments

    42   9:07pm Mon 15 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Cvoc13 says The shorter term, the info and or observation seems correct, BUT still in five years, much lower prices all of Ca. IMHO No, it doesn't seem correct at all. It is directly contradicted by another source that samples a larger area. He can't just pick individual cities and say that they represent the market as a whole. I can find plenty of cities on Redfin that show DECLINES in asking prices. Do you want me to post them? Iwog's charts show nothing, other than the fact that data can be noisy.

32. Cvoc13 Follow Befriend (9) 6 threads 194 comments Dublin, CA Cvoc13's website

    43   9:28pm Mon 15 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   I had not yet clicked on that (your posting showing LOWER PRICES (asking) on all three tears of housing, as I have seen for myself in the east bay Ca. (minus SR Danville, and Ptwon, and tight little area around, they are moving ever so slowly) But I now I see the data showing (conflicting his charts) IWOG is a permabull and while I would like to think I am open and fair, I see only a long long long time of much lower prices ending at trend.

33. justme Follow Befriend (2) 33 threads 3,458 comments

    44   10:28pm Mon 15 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   gameisrigged says robertoaribas says Sales are down, prices are down, who cares if listing prices on average are going up for a couple of months? But they AREN’T even going up. See my previous post. As Rob said, good catch. iwog says The reason I didn’t bother to check Housing Tracker is that your median housing numbers were trashed mutilated, ripped, shredded, and raped on this very board not 2 years ago. Don't get too excited there, Iwog. You now claim that $/ft2 asking prices have predictive powers but 3-tier median asking prices do not? This is getting pretty desperate. Personally I don't think either one of these types of ASKING prices are good predictors of selling prices. We shall see.

34. justme Follow Befriend (2) 33 threads 3,458 comments

    45   10:42pm Mon 15 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   iwog says No justme, please stop making things up. I’ve never once claimed that government intervention has nothing to do with higher prices. I’ve claimed repeatedly in MANY THREADS that all my predictions ASSUMED government interference. It’s built into all my predictions. Oh, so you say government intervention did have SOMETHING (something == not nothing) to do with higher prices. iwog says Now “government intervention” has somehow morphed into “$8000 tax credit”. Lovely way to manipulate the language there. I said the $8000 tax credit had a small effect. On a 10 year graph sometime in 2015, it will be so small that you will hardly be able to see it. And then suddenly you say the effect is so small as to be nearly invisible. To summarize: Oh, so the government intervention had SOMETHING to do with price increases, but the effect was NEARLY INVISIBLE. To me, that sounds like you're claiming that there was hardly any effect, which is rather close to NO effect, is it not? iwog says I’ve claimed repeatedly in MANY THREADS that all my predictions ASSUMED government interference. It’s built into all my predictions. Okay, so the assumption of government intervention was supposedly accounted for in your prediction, but the assumtption was that there was hardly any effect. What a tangled and complicated WEB you weave, Iwog. You're gonna' have to paddle harder to stay ahead.

35. justme Follow Befriend (2) 33 threads 3,458 comments

    46   10:45pm Mon 15 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (2)   You know what, I'm not enjoying in the least pointing out all the contradictions and lack of logic on Iwog's arguments. It's a chore. The only reason I bother is that we have already experienced once the kind of mayhem and destruction that unchecked housing-bull propaganda can cause. It is time to STOP it.

36. WillyWanker Follow Befriend (1) 9 threads 194 comments Beverly Hills, CA WillyWanker's website

    47   11:01pm Mon 15 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Terrible time to buy in California. I wouldn't buy now. I'd wait for at least two more years before buying.

37. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,534 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    48   11:16pm Mon 15 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   justme says Personally I don’t think either one of these types of ASKING prices are good predictors of selling prices. We shall see. When it's very clear I'm right come 2011, what are your posts going to look like then? Same excuses you used for 2009 and 2010? Bearish predictions for 2009 and 2010 on this very forum were horribly wrong. Not just in real estate, but the stock market and even the gold market. You were part of that frenzy weren't you. At what point do I get to be right enough to actually be right? At what point do you admit the housing crash is actually over?

38. gameisrigged Follow Befriend 3 threads 617 comments

    49   11:20pm Mon 15 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   justme says Personally I don’t think either one of these types of ASKING prices are good predictors of selling prices. We shall see. No, probably not. Sales volume is a pretty good leading indicator. Asking prices? I'm skeptical.

39. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,534 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    50   11:24pm Mon 15 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   gameisrigged says Housing Tracker breaks down the data into 3 tiers, and EVERY tier shows a decline. If it were “just showing that less expensive homes are selling better than high end homes”, then the 25 percentile would show an INCREASE, not a decrease. You're wrong and you aren't interpreting the data correctly. If a $10 million home is sold in 2007, 2008, & 2009, but is NOT sold in 2010, ALL THE TIERS WILL SHOW A DECLINE as long as the rest of the market is flat. Median prices in California are HEAVILY influenced by the top end because top end homes in California cost millions. It's very possible for the $ per square foot price to be rising, while median and other tiers are dropping. This is why people here USED to reject data based on medians and averages. Apparently that is no longer the case at the expense of intellectual integrity. (no comment from justme) Therefore I will simply say that $ per sq. ft. pricing is much more accurate than treating home values as a lump sum.

40. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,534 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    51   11:27pm Mon 15 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   justme says Okay, so the assumption of government intervention was supposedly accounted for in your prediction, but the assumtption was that there was hardly any effect. What a tangled an complicated WEB you weave, Iwog. You’re gonna’ have to paddle harder to stay ahead. No, as always I will seek to simplify while you seek to make it too complicated to understand. The 8000 tax credit is a very minor piece of government intervention. Keeping interest rates low and ensuring the solvency of Freddie, Fannie, and AIG were far more important. All the contradictions are in your head and not based on anything I've written here.

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