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Get ready California, prices are going up in 2011! (then back down)

By iwog   Follow   Mon, 15 Nov 2010, 1:58pm   26,283 views   491 comments
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1. gameisrigged Follow Befriend 3 threads 617 comments

   52   12:48am Tue 16 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   iwog says gameisrigged says Housing Tracker breaks down the data into 3 tiers, and EVERY tier shows a decline. If it were “just showing that less expensive homes are selling better than high end homes”, then the 25 percentile would show an INCREASE, not a decrease. You’re wrong and you aren’t interpreting the data correctly. If a $10 million home is sold in 2007, 2008, & 2009, but is NOT sold in 2010, ALL THE TIERS WILL SHOW A DECLINE as long as the rest of the market is flat. Median prices in California are HEAVILY influenced by the top end because top end homes in California cost millions. It’s very possible for the $ per square foot price to be rising, while median and other tiers are dropping. This is why people here USED to reject data based on medians and averages. Apparently that is no longer the case at the expense of intellectual integrity. (no comment from justme) Therefore I will simply say that $ per sq. ft. pricing is much more accurate than treating home values as a lump sum. A duck grasping at straws - now that's an interesting sight. Are you ever going to explain how cherry-picking 3 individual cities out of an ENTIRE STATE is somehow more accurate than using data from entire metropolitan regions?

2. alraaz Follow Befriend (1) 4 threads 35 comments Santa Clara, CA

   53   1:47am Tue 16 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   I agree with Iwog that the effect of tax credit exhaustion has gone away now and prices are going up. I am looking for a home in south bay and the tide has definitely turned against us. The nicer areas have actually turned up more than less desirable zip codes. Even the winter and holidays don't seem to have any slow down. I have seen that Asian/Chinese folks seem to have lot of money here in Bay area and they love investing in real estate in good schools here. But I also think these plots and price changes are short term. Overall, I believe housing is going to divide in two categories just like the income of this country.

3. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 272 threads 12,450 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

   54   1:54am Tue 16 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   gameisrigged says Are you ever going to explain how cherry-picking 3 individual cities out of an ENTIRE STATE is somehow more accurate than using data from entire metropolitan regions? Sure. The data from Redfin actually means something. When tested against Case-Shiller, you get a very close match. When tested against the national averages, you also get a very close match. Not necessarily in magnitude, but in market direction and peaks/valleys. Case-Shiller has achieved Sainthood on Patrick.net therefore Redfin should be accorded some respect. However when I checked your housing tracker graphs, I found them to be a bad measure. Not only do they fail to confirm Case-Shiller, but they actually report the peak for all markets to have been in 2009. This is in direct contradiction to both Case-Shiller's regional numbers AND national numbers. (Case-Shiller DOES use broad metropolitan numbers) So here we have a discredited method of tracking market prices that is not confirmed by the one index that most people here would accept as valid, and you're asking ME to justify Redfin's data? Seriously??? I consider that asinine. My prediction is going to be correct. The real estate market is going to show up on Case-Shiller as 2 or 3 months of steep decline followed by a surge in prices from September onward. (Dec, Jan reports) What's your prediction?

4. CrazyMan Follow Befriend 448 comments Campbell, CA

   55   5:57am Tue 16 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   alraaz says I agree with Iwog that the effect of tax credit exhaustion has gone away now and prices are going up. Odd, I've seen nothing but reductions.

5. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,761 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

   56   7:59am Tue 16 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Iwhack: listing price is a predictor of sales prices 4 months later, and listing prices are rising... reality: Nope listing prices are actually in generally falling, here is detailed proof. Iwhack: They are falling? Then they don't mean anything at all, sales prices will still climb. Hope to PROVE to everyone on a forum that you are a complete douche bag!

6. native94027 Follow Befriend 2 threads 100 comments Atherton, CA

   57   7:59am Tue 16 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Running a regression on the delta is more reliable than eyeballing the chart to see what you are looking for. Also, if you are trying to correlate data that (per your hypothesis) has a phase delay, plotting the rate-of-change of that difference will show the pattern more clearly.

7. Hysteresis Follow Befriend (2) 14 threads 647 comments

   58   8:42am Tue 16 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   native94027 says Running a regression on the delta is more reliable than eyeballing the chart to see what you are looking for. Also, if you are trying to correlate data that (per your hypothesis) has a phase delay, plotting the rate-of-change of that difference will show the pattern more clearly. but that would show idioticwordsofgod doesn't know what he's talking about and we can't have that

8. justme Follow Befriend (2) 33 threads 3,456 comments

   59   9:23am Tue 16 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   My prediction is that Iwog will be wrong again before the housing bubble bust is all over. He has been wrong before and he will be wrong again. At which point in time he will crow about how at least he made bold predictions. Not that I care how bold and foolish the predictions were. They are not predictions, they are propaganda. The big picture depends on how hog-wild the Govt+Fed go with housing support in the form of QE2, QE3, HAMP, tax breaks, and on and on with all kinds of macro factors that Iwog is banking on but claim have little effect. The big picture also depends on how much stock sheeple put in the propaganda put out by Iwog and his ilk.

9. Huntington Moneyworth III, Esq Follow Befriend 53 threads 658 comments

   60   9:29am Tue 16 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   In a way, these back-and-forths are quibbling over minutia. I think the overall point Iwog has is right, we are heading back into a period of rising home prices. Generally speaking, now is a good time to buy if you are purchasing in the right area. Underbuilt Vegas/Riverside/Florida McMansions built with egg rot drywall in the desert 100 miles from major employment areas are a bad bet. Same with overtaxed rust belt gangland tract homes in Detroit. I do not think someone buying in San Francisco, San Jose, Pasadena, Santa Monica is going to lose money.

10. Huntington Moneyworth III, Esq Follow Befriend 53 threads 658 comments

    61   9:33am Tue 16 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   justme says The big picture also depends on how much stock sheeple put in the propaganda put out by Iwog and his ilk. I don't think Iwog is putting out propaganda to fool anyone. I remember him being very vocal about the coming housing crash. The housing crash is over. We are not looking at another round of falling prices. This takes the doom and gloom propaganda too far. Prices have stabilized over the past year and they will begin heading up. This is the time to buy real estate. The fear is far too overblown.

11. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 272 threads 12,450 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    62   9:40am Tue 16 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   justme says My prediction is that Iwog will be wrong again before the housing bubble bust is all over. He has been wrong before and he will be wrong again. At which point in time he will crow about how at least he made bold predictions. Not that I care how bold and foolish the predictions were. They are not predictions, they are propaganda. The big picture depends on how hog-wild the Govt+Fed go with housing support in the form of QE2, QE3, HAMP, tax breaks, and on and on with all kinds of macro factors that Iwog is banking on but claim have little effect. The big picture also depends on how much stock sheeple put in the propaganda put out by Iwog and his ilk. Excellent. So basically I'm totally wrong on all counts, but my prediction might still turn out right but not because I was right about any of my reasoning. ROFLOL That's fricken hilarious!!!!!!! How about this justme. At least have the balls to say "I think the housing crash will continue" or "I think the housing crash is over". Then you wont look like such a weasel who is desperately trying to avoid being wrong.

12. justme Follow Befriend (2) 33 threads 3,456 comments

    63   9:46am Tue 16 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   iwog says Median prices in California are HEAVILY influenced by the top end because top end homes in California cost millions Baloney. Median prices in California are NOT heavily influenced by the top end. That is exactly the point of using median instead of average. Whether the top few dozen high-end properties cost $10M or $20M each make ZERO difference to the median price. All that matters is HOW MANY of them there are. At the level of small cities with a mix of cheap and expensive houses it can make a difference, but if one uses the housingtracker.com data with 3-tier medians, then the mix is also take pretty good care of. So I call double baloney on your claim.

13. toothfairy Follow Befriend 40 threads 856 comments Oakland, CA

    64   9:51am Tue 16 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Those McMansions in the desert were mostly sold to investors.

14. tatupu70 Follow Befriend (3) 15 threads 5,606 comments

    65   9:51am Tue 16 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Justme-- I have to do this. I can't believe you are still harping on this. Do you really not understand the difference between government intervention in general and one particular program? justme says Iwog himself is simply making a bet that Govt+Fed intervention will be enough to inflate our way out of the bubble, at the expense of the savers and general taxpayers. That’s all there is to it. He is hiding behind some mumbo-jumbo chart theory that has nothing to do with reality, and claiming that Govt+Fed intervention has nothing to do with it. iwog says No justme, please stop making things up. I’ve never once claimed that government intervention has nothing to do with higher prices. I’ve claimed repeatedly in MANY THREADS that all my predictions ASSUMED government interference. It’s built into all my predictions. justme says Everyone, please raise your hand if you recall Iwog saying that the price bump this summer was not due to the tax break. iwog says Now “government intervention” has somehow morphed into “$8000 tax credit”. Lovely way to manipulate the language there. I said the $8000 tax credit had a small effect. On a 10 year graph sometime in 2015, it will be so small that you will hardly be able to see it. justme says Oh, so you say government intervention did have SOMETHING (something == not nothing) to do with higher prices. justme says And then suddenly you say the effect is so small as to be nearly invisible. To summarize: Oh, so the government intervention had SOMETHING to do with price increases, but the effect was NEARLY INVISIBLE. To me, that sounds like you’re claiming that there was hardly any effect, which is rather close to NO effect, is it not? justme says You know what, I’m not enjoying in the least pointing out all the contradictions and lack of logic on Iwog’s arguments. It’s a chore. You've listed the many ways the Federal Government tried to help ease the housing crash. It was much more than the 1st time homebuyers tax credit. So, it is entirely logical to say that the government intervention had a large effect, but that one of those programs in particular--the tax credit--had only a minor effect. You can see that, right?

15. justme Follow Befriend (2) 33 threads 3,456 comments

    66   9:51am Tue 16 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   justme says At which point in time he will crow about how at least he made bold predictions I spoke to soon, he is already crowing about how bold he is. iwog says At least have the balls to say “I think the housing crash will continue” or “I think the housing crash is over”. Good for you. You are one bold little duck. You are a duck with the balls of a bear. But that won't fly.

16. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 272 threads 12,450 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    67   9:56am Tue 16 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   justme says Baloney. Median prices in California are NOT heavily influenced by the top end. That is exactly the point of using median instead of average. Whether the top few dozen high-end properties cost $10M or $20M each make ZERO difference to the median price. All that matters is HOW MANY of them there are. That's pretty much exactly what I said in my example. I said if in year one and two a $10 million dollar house is sold, then in year 3 there are no $10 million dollar homes sold, all three tiers go lower. I was dead on correct. You just misinterpreted what I said even when I gave a very clear example of sales dropping. Furthermore you yourself argued vehemently against using median because it's far more a measure of volume than it is price. Or did you forget? "3-tier medians" (not a valid term) doesn't fix anything. Double the amount of sales on the low end or halve the amount of sales on the high end and it moves all three measures DOWN. I'd also like you to explain why Redfin seems to be tracking Case-Shiller rather closely while housingtracker totally fails. Did you give up on Case-Shiller now?

17. ¥ Follow Befriend 35 threads 5,700 comments Bellingham, WA

    68   10:01am Tue 16 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   SoCal Renter says We are not looking at another round of falling prices. Depends on the macro. Taxes going up? Prices go down. Gov't employment cut? Prices go down. Double dip? Prices go down. Debt crisis pushing interest rates up? Prices go down. Civil unemployment gets worse? Prices go down. We are in Japan Mode now -- QE, ZIRP and massive budget deficits, two things that are being demagogued all to hell now. http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CE16OV People knock the 70s for stagflation but there were 20M jobs added. The 80s got a slow start but we saw another 20M thanks to Reagan's Keynesian spending. The 90s saw personal computers and increasing international trade, another 20M jobs. The previous decade however, we hit the wall thanks to trying to fake our way with a bubble economy. Household debt, 1970-2010.

18. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 272 threads 12,450 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    69   10:03am Tue 16 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   justme says justme says At which point in time he will crow about how at least he made bold predictions I spoke to soon, he is already crowing about how bold he is. iwog says At least have the balls to say “I think the housing crash will continue” or “I think the housing crash is over”. Good for you. You are one bold little duck. You are a duck with the balls of a bear. But that won’t fly. I didn't think you'd have the guts to actually make a call either way. Pretty sad.

19. Huntington Moneyworth III, Esq Follow Befriend 53 threads 658 comments

    70   10:25am Tue 16 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Troy says SoCal Renter says We are not looking at another round of falling prices. Depends on the macro. Taxes going up? Prices go down. Gov’t employment cut? Prices go down. Double dip? Prices go down. Debt crisis pushing interest rates up? Prices go down. Civil unemployment gets worse? Prices go down. We are in Japan Mode now — QE, ZIRP and massive budget deficits, two things that are being demagogued all to hell now. http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CE16OV People knock the 70s for stagflation but there were 20M jobs added. The 80s got a slow start but we saw another 20M thanks to Reagan’s Keynesian spending. The 90s saw personal computers and increasing international trade, another 20M jobs. The previous decade however, we hit the wall thanks to trying to fake our way with a bubble economy. Household debt, 1970-2010. Err, no. All of the above also point to RISING home prices. The previous decade we hit the wall because of unsustainable WAR SPENDING. Our technological economy was outsourced and replaced with banking speculators and war profiteers. However, we are on the cusp of a new export economy. New industrial technologies are being innovated every day, from green tech to micro-industrial processing that require highly skilled labor that cannot be outsourced in the labor competition market. The geographical areas being left behind in America are the areas that cannot provide good government value. Areas with relatively low taxes and excellent government service that have achieved a critical mass of immigrant friendly population will see phenomenal growth in home prices.

20. Fisk Follow Befriend (1) 8 threads 242 comments

    71   10:34am Tue 16 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   SoCal Renter says Areas with relatively low taxes and excellent government service ... will see phenomenal growth in home prices. And when you think of such areas, CA and particularly Bay Area is the 1st thing that obviously comes to mind. :-) But I agree with your general premise, so prices in Singapore may well go up.

21. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,761 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    72   10:56am Tue 16 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)   socal renter = "i bought a home, so prices have to go up" sadly stupid logic. "we are on the cusp of blah blah blah and all kinds of new employment..." Hmmm, I guess that explains why we are down some 10 million jobs... all that new employment and all... "Areas with relatively low taxes and excellent government service that have achieved a critical mass of immigrant friendly population will see phenomenal growth in home prices." - you bought in Califallyeah right? State most likely to do a Grecian tragedy? Meredith Whitney, who you might recall predicted the crash and ensuing bank swandive, I believe recently but Califallyeah second only to new jersey as the worst possible state budgets and bond futures... take Cali is dead last on all those counts... Businesses and people are looking for the exits, and lets see how you balance next year's budget with more Repub's in congress stifling a federal bailout... Now, on to Iwhack: "median is heavily influenced by the top end" = I flunked statistics 101. MEAN is heavily influenced by outliers, median is very much less influenced y outliers. this nitwit is on a special level... "listing prices are going up so they are VERY IMPORTANT"..."ooops, they are going down, so they aren't important at all" "median price is a great indicator when it agrees with me, but a terrible one when it doesn't..." Unfreaking believable! "don't debate with an idiot, they drag the discussion down to their idiotic level and then beat you with their superior experience at being an idiot"

22. tatupu70 Follow Befriend (3) 15 threads 5,606 comments

    73   11:01am Tue 16 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   iwog says That’s pretty much exactly what I said in my example. I said if in year one and two a $10 million dollar house is sold, then in year 3 there are no $10 million dollar homes sold, all three tiers go lower. I was dead on correct. You just misinterpreted what I said even when I gave a very clear example of sales dropping. robertoaribas says Now, on to Iwhack: “median is heavily influenced by the top end” = I flunked statistics 101. MEAN is heavily influenced by outliers, median is very much less influenced y outliers. this nitwit is on a special level… “listing prices are going up so they are VERY IMPORTANT”…”ooops, they are going down, so they aren’t important at all” “median price is a great indicator when it agrees with me, but a terrible one when it doesn’t…” Unfreaking believable! And yet another reading comprehension fail.

23. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 272 threads 12,450 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    74   11:03am Tue 16 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   robertoaribas says socal renter = “i bought a home, so prices have to go up” sadly stupid logic. “we are on the cusp of blah blah blah and all kinds of new employment…” Hmmm, I guess that explains why we are down some 10 million jobs… all that new employment and all… “Areas with relatively low taxes and excellent government service that have achieved a critical mass of immigrant friendly population will see phenomenal growth in home prices.” - you bought in Califallyeah right? State most likely to do a Grecian tragedy? Meredith Whitney, who you might recall predicted the crash and ensuing bank swandive, I believe recently but Califallyeah second only to new jersey as the worst possible state budgets and bond futures… take Cali is dead last on all those counts… Businesses and people are looking for the exits, and lets see how you balance next year’s budget with more Repub’s in congress stifling a federal bailout… Now, on to Iwhack: “median is heavily influenced by the top end” = I flunked statistics 101. MEAN is heavily influenced by outliers, median is very much less influenced y outliers. this nitwit is on a special level… “listing prices are going up so they are VERY IMPORTANT”…”ooops, they are going down, so they aren’t important at all” “median price is a great indicator when it agrees with me, but a terrible one when it doesn’t…” Unfreaking believable! “don’t debate with an idiot, they drag the discussion down to their idiotic level and then beat you with their superior experience at being an idiot” You're right, I wouldn't want to write anything that would make me look like an idiot.......... ;)

24. tatupu70 Follow Befriend (3) 15 threads 5,606 comments

    75   11:05am Tue 16 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   I know. I wish I could come up with such clever terms as Califallyeah...

25. justme Follow Befriend (2) 33 threads 3,456 comments

    76   11:07am Tue 16 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   robertoaribas says “don’t debate with an idiot, they drag the discussion down to their idiotic level and then beat you with their superior experience at being an idiot” ;-). Along the same lines as the famous quote: "Don't wrestle with a pig. You get dirty, and the pig likes it"

26. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,761 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    77   11:13am Tue 16 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   no tapa bootie: you are just woefully lacking in knowledge. In a housing market with 100 sales, if 1 of those is a 1 million dollar sale, and then next time there is no million dollar sale, the median goes from the average of the 49th and 50th valued sale, to the 49th valued sale exactly, ie a very minuscule change. Since I will presume LA and San Francisco have more than 100 sales a month, the greatest odds are that there are MULTIPLE sales at the exact same price around the median. In Phoenix, for example, with a median price of 120,000, there were dozens of homes at EXACTLY 120,000. so, you could subtract the 10 highest sales and guess what? the median would change precisely $0. So, Iwhack, on this third flip flop claims the median is messed up because it "is overly effected by the extremes" , when precisely the opposite is true. Now the idiot duck usually responds with "when did I say that?" "it isn't an exact quote" SURE, but it IS precisely what you are arguing. The rudeness stems from becoming tired of A. flip flops. B. dialects rather than substance. C. lack of knowledge on your side, and lack of willingness to either think or learn.

27. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 272 threads 12,450 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    78   11:13am Tue 16 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Right on schedule and exactly how I predicted. Here's the new data from this morning. If history is any guide, prices will now increase for at least three months as listing prices are carried forward to sales.

28. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 272 threads 12,450 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    79   11:17am Tue 16 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   robertoaribas says So, Iwhack, on this third flip flop claims the median is messed up because it “is overly effected by the extremes” , when precisely the opposite is true. I didn't argue the median is messed up, justme did. Ask him. All I said was that Redfin is a much closer match to Case-Shiller and $ per sq. ft. is a much more logical way to gauge prices.

29. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 272 threads 12,450 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    80   11:18am Tue 16 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)   shrekgrinch says RayAmerica says What happens when inflationary pressures drive interest rates higher? Iwog and others on there don’t understand that concept at all, RayAmerica. Don’t bother. I defer to history.

30. tatupu70 Follow Befriend (3) 15 threads 5,606 comments

    81   11:22am Tue 16 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   robertoaribas says So, Iwhack, on this third flip flop claims the median is messed up because it “is overly effected by the extremes” , when precisely the opposite is true. Wow. It is customary when using quotation marks to put something inside them that has actually been said (or written in this case). You have done exactly the opposite. Not only didn't he say that, he hasn't said anything even close to that. Your reading comprehension skills are decidedly lacking.

31. tatupu70 Follow Befriend (3) 15 threads 5,606 comments

    82   11:23am Tue 16 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   shrekgrinch says Iwog and others on there don’t understand that concept at all, RayAmerica. Don’t bother. I understand what you guys think SHOULD happen. The point is that you are wrong.

32. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 272 threads 12,450 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    83   11:34am Tue 16 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   shrekgrinch says No, you don’t. You defer to the Fantasy World of Iwog. No, I defer to history. Higher interest rates almost never result in lower real estate prices. Generally the opposite is true. Wanting it to be different isn't going to change that.

33. gameisrigged Follow Befriend 3 threads 617 comments

    84   11:47am Tue 16 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   iwog says gameisrigged says Are you ever going to explain how cherry-picking 3 individual cities out of an ENTIRE STATE is somehow more accurate than using data from entire metropolitan regions? Sure. The data from Redfin actually means something. When tested against Case-Shiller, you get a very close match. When tested against the national averages, you also get a very close match. Not necessarily in magnitude, but in market direction and peaks/valleys. Case-Shiller has achieved Sainthood on Patrick.net therefore Redfin should be accorded some respect. However when I checked your housing tracker graphs, I found them to be a bad measure. Not only do they fail to confirm Case-Shiller, but they actually report the peak for all markets to have been in 2009. This is in direct contradiction to both Case-Shiller’s regional numbers AND national numbers. (Case-Shiller DOES use broad metropolitan numbers) So here we have a discredited method of tracking market prices that is not confirmed by the one index that most people here would accept as valid, and you’re asking ME to justify Redfin’s data? Seriously??? I consider that asinine. My prediction is going to be correct. The real estate market is going to show up on Case-Shiller as 2 or 3 months of steep decline followed by a surge in prices from September onward. (Dec, Jan reports) What’s your prediction? Here are 3 glaringly obvious problems with what you wrote: 1. Case-Shiller reports SALES prices. Housing Tracker reports ASKING prices. Those are 2 different things. You continue to conflate the 2 even after I have corrected you. The fact that you expect two completely different things to "conform" to each other shows you haven't the slightest clue what you're talking about. You even go so far as to refer to the data as "market prices", when that is NOT what the data is. 2. You are singing the praises of Case-Shiller, when Case-Shiller has nothing to do with this discussion. This is known as a "red herring". 3. You have completely ignored the main point of my criticism, which is that you are taking data from SINGLE CITIES as though it were representative of the entire California housing market, which it is not.

34. tatupu70 Follow Befriend (3) 15 threads 5,606 comments

    85   11:51am Tue 16 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   shrekgrinch says You are confusing increases of interest rates with increases in price inflation. It is the later that increase hard asset prices (art, land both improved and not, etc.). Easy access to debt can also fool you into believing true inflation is happening when all that really is happening is a classic bubble. Cheaper rates = easier access to debt. Higher rates = the opposite. No one is confusing anything. Wage inflation is the driver, of course. Historically high interest rates occur during periods of wage inflation. How do you not understand that?

35. tatupu70 Follow Befriend (3) 15 threads 5,606 comments

    86   11:54am Tue 16 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   shrekgrinch says According to you, the home prices must have SOARED in real dollars. Now you're talking about real dollars??? Let me know when you can buy a house in real dollars. Real dollars are completely irrelevant. The whole point is that you'd rather be an owner during inflationary periods...

36. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 272 threads 12,450 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    87   11:57am Tue 16 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   gameisrigged says 1. Case-Shiller reports SALES prices. Housing Tracker reports ASKING prices. Those are 2 different things. You continue to conflate the 2 even after I have corrected you. The fact that you expect two completely different things to “conform” to each other shows you haven’t the slightest clue what you’re talking about. You even go so far as to refer to the data as “market prices”, when that is NOT what the data is. If housing tracker doesn't conform to sales prices, then why the fuck would you use it? gameisrigged says 2. You are singing the praises of Case-Shiller, when Case-Shiller has nothing to do with this discussion. This is known as a “red herring”. No, I'm treating short term Case-Shiller numbers as "the market". What index do you use? gameisrigged says 3. You have completely ignored the main point of my criticism, which is that you are taking data from SINGLE CITIES as though it were representative of the entire California housing market, which it is not. I didn't ignore it, I rejected it. Data from single cities happens to be an accurate predictor of the wider market, which is why Redfin conforms so closely to Case-Shiller while housing tracker isn't even close.

37. gameisrigged Follow Befriend 3 threads 617 comments

    88   12:19pm Tue 16 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)   iwog says gameisrigged says 1. Case-Shiller reports SALES prices. Housing Tracker reports ASKING prices. Those are 2 different things. You continue to conflate the 2 even after I have corrected you. The fact that you expect two completely different things to “conform” to each other shows you haven’t the slightest clue what you’re talking about. You even go so far as to refer to the data as “market prices”, when that is NOT what the data is. If housing tracker doesn’t conform to sales prices, then why the fuck would you use it? gameisrigged says 2. You are singing the praises of Case-Shiller, when Case-Shiller has nothing to do with this discussion. This is known as a “red herring”. No, I’m treating short term Case-Shiller numbers as “the market”. What index do you use? This is now getting truly bizarre. I have pointed out several times now that we're talking about ASKING PRICES. It's the part that's bolded in your first post, for crying out loud. But you inexplicably continue to conflate it with SALES PRICES. I don't know what to say. You are being completely obtuse. gameisrigged says 3. You have completely ignored the main point of my criticism, which is that you are taking data from SINGLE CITIES as though it were representative of the entire California housing market, which it is not. I didn’t ignore it, I rejected it. Data from single cities happens to be an accurate predictor of the wider market, which is why Redfin conforms so closely to Case-Shiller while housing tracker isn’t even close. "Data from single cities is an accurate predictor of the wider market". Hmmm... o.k., I'll play. Here is the chart for Oakland, CA: So I guess if that single city is an accurate predictor of the wider market, then asking prices must be going down for all of California, at least according to YOUR logic.

38. ¥ Follow Befriend 35 threads 5,700 comments Bellingham, WA

    89   12:20pm Tue 16 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (2)   SoCal Renter says However, we are on the cusp of a new export economy. http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TCU Exports are great and all, but they're not going to replace the $2T/yr debt economy we enjoyed under Bush. http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/HOANBS?cid=2 iwog says If history is any guide, prices will now increase for at least three months as listing prices are carried forward to sales Mortgage rates? tatupu70 says Historically high interest rates occur during periods of wage inflation Historically high interest rates occurred exactly once, in the 1970s wage inflation event, which I think was in response to the baby boom hitting their late 20s and an economy that was rather under-leveraged given its future growth potential. Durable goods mfg peaked at 12M jobs in 1980: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/DMANEMP?cid=11 While the soft, non wealth-creating jobs have quadrupled since 1970: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/USEHS?cid=11 FIRE has doubled http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/USFIRE?cid=11 but goods-production is down to 1950s levels: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/USGOOD?cid=11 gummint has doubled: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/USGOVT?cid=11 Tech jobs are back to 1990 (?) http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/USINFO?cid=11 Hospitality has tripled: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/USLAH?cid=11 Non-durable goods sector is back to the 1930s: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/NDMANEMP?cid=11 While 'professional' paper-pushing jobs have almost quadrupled: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/USPBS?cid=11 Retail has tripled: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/USTRADE?cid=11 as has the entire service sector: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/SRVPRD?cid=11 but wealth-creation is flat or down since 2000. This is not a stable situation.

39. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,761 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    90   12:42pm Tue 16 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   iwog says If a $10 million home is sold in 2007, 2008, & 2009, but is NOT sold in 2010, ALL THE TIERS WILL SHOW A DECLINE as long as the rest of the market is flat. Median prices in California are HEAVILY influenced by the top end because top end homes in California cost millions. Yeah, Iwhack didn't say a few outliers influence median... He said median price is HEAVILY influenced by the top end ... tapatbootie, and iwhack are the tweedle dee and tweedle dum of debate.

40. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 272 threads 12,450 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    91   12:45pm Tue 16 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   robertoaribas says Yeah, Iwhack didn’t say a few outliers influence median… He said median price is HEAVILY influenced by the top end … tapatbootie, and iwhack are the tweedle dee and tweedle dum of debate. Which is absolutely true. If the lower and middle markets are normal, and sales on the top end drop by half, all three tiers are going to plummet. This is exactly what's happening. McMansions built in the Valley are mothballed. High end sales are sluggish. Meanwhile investors are snapping up the low end right and left. As a result median is going to show a decline EVEN IF home prices are increasing. This is the problem with using median numbers to describe a market.

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