



Get ready California, prices are going up in 2011! (then back down)
By iwog Follow Mon, 15 Nov 2010, 1:58pm 26,338 views 491 comments
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San Leandro, CA
You can not blame Madoff. After a while NOT taking advantage of anothers refusal to educate themselves would in turn BE stupid. We have all seen a time-line of mans existence on earth, and that time on a clock appears as about six seconds. If the same clock were used to represent RESIDENTIAL LAND, it would show about three seconds. Try this test. GOOGLE a satellite map of the United States, or any other country and Center over your choice of metropolitan areas (with out digital assistance). Zoom all the way in until you land atop a heavily populated area. It will take many attempts. ( new game idea) Point is, the people buying homes today are under the (marketed) impression that if they don't buy now, there will be NO land left to build on in the near future. O.M.Geeee !!!! My advise, as a " Land Agent. " GO FOR A PLANE RIDE !!!. ONE or TWO MINUTES off the tarmac and there is no civilization ! in MOST cases, for hundreds of miles. There are 2.3 BILLION acres of land in the USA. With 6 homes per acre we have built homes on about 18 million acres. Do the math and you will see 2.3 billion acres remain. Take another 20 million acres for ALL other building and OH OH !! we still have 2.3.........STOP ...... listening to sales people like Bernie and nem, or deserve to get berned.
As soon as we Bernanke depleets or treasury, Home values will return to their PHENOMENALLY set value which is 2.5 times that families annual income. Weather that income is based on the Dollar or bushels of corn ... Unless the next fantastic gadget is invented.
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San Carlos, CA
'Nostalgic' house sellers on the higher end over-pricing their houses for sale ... we'll see how Iwog's theory holds up in this environment. I believe it is a stand-off at the mid to high: unrealistic sellers, increasingly sensible buyers. There is a lot of 'nostalgia' from those true believers who sank a lot of their hopes and dreams into getting rich off their house.
http://www.mercurynews.com/real-estate-news/ci_16693668
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I agree with the chart. I think the $300ks homes have or are being gobbled up in parts of the bay area which then in turn go to the next range of homes 400-600k and so one. Laws of supply and demand come into play here people. Interest rates being low, suckers ready to buy into the market, the $300ks are almost gone or going quickly.... then the next motivated buyers come along with the american dream to buy a home.... people who read the data can see this. Prices will go up. What may take a dent in this is if the tax breaks expire Dec 31st. It will hurt the Bay area more than the rest of the country because the dual income families here making $250k and above are going to get dinged. This may put a dent in everyone's pocket around here. Yeah, yeah, I dont have the data of who makes over a $100k, but I can probably bet most dual income families fall into or close to $250k.
Whats great is that no matter how many times I float around these forums and read everyone's feedback or opinions (and mine is simply an opinion and I never assume Im correct by any means)... nobody gets it... I think the Bay Area is one of these markets that is so dynamic, trying to predict what it will be like in 3 months is anyones guess. So these forums offer a little insight. The camp on the left says the sky is falling, stock up on water and baby food, save yourself... the other camp saying prices have bottomed out and we moving up... slowly... very slowly.... The reality is that we are all screwed until California digs it way out of its own deficit and crappy union contracts. I mean really.. Calpers borrowing 5.4 billion from the feds absolutely makes me sick. If that is going on behind our backs.. what else is. And it will boil down to is taxes will be raise and services will be cut back more.... which in turn punish the people who live in the fair weather state. The sun still shines elsewhere and most likely people are finding that out slowly and moving on out. And as the smart ones move out, the california dreamers move back in. Its like a revolving door. Which leads back to predicting the outcome of housing........ who knows... but sure is fun reading and making our own opinions.
bash away fellow patrick.net errrs
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Mr. Iwog can you please explain why this one in the beach city listed in 2009(Your bottom) and got sold in 2010 for less than 2009 price?
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Huntington-Beach/2013-California-St-92648/home/5800511
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iwog says
That doesn't look anything at all like the conversation. What exactly are you trying to pull here? For a guy who is constantly screaming that others are "misquoting" you, you sure don't seem to have any qualms about misquoting OTHER people.
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Bellingham, WA
bubblesitter says
if you actually look on the zillow price trends you'll see it sold in line with the 2009 "bottom".
The midrange of OC is in a definite bubble still. Much of this market was supported by real estate shenanigans that are only now unwinding -- not to mention a lot of REIC stuff was actually based in this area, jobwise.
The fortress area will have sticking power but anything too exposed to the inland barrios will continue to get hammered as their problems spill out and the gentrification of border areas is reversed by the shutoff of the free money of the bubble times.
My sister actually lives in Corona Del Mar and I think it's a decent place to live. If I could afford it I'd get a nice ocean view place in Laguna Beach (up in the hills), no problem. My kind of life, actually.
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47 male
Lafayette, CA
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gameisrigged says
It's exactly the conversation, which is why you failed to point out one single substantial difference.
It's easy to have a knee jerk reaction and say "YOU'RE WRONG!!". It's a lot harder to actually demonstrate why. (to some it's impossible)
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Uh, one difference:
justme wrote:
"Typical IWOG. Instead of just saying “sorry I made a mistake in accusing you” he is now trying to bait me into some fake discussion where he wants me to defend myself against something I did not say. Meh. I think not."
And let's see, when you quoted him, what did YOU write?
"B"
Oh, no - I guess that's not a substantial difference. WTF?
Hope that's not too "knee jerk" for you, jerk.
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47 male
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It didn't pertain to the conversation so I left it out. It had no relevance AT ALL!
It's simply a protest that things didn't go his way. It was ad hominem and totally irrelevant.
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bubblesitter says
That house was never sold in 2009. I don't know what you're talking about.
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I was referring to listing(not sold) price in 2009.
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47 male
Lafayette, CA
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Can't we all agree that individual listings have no relevance whatsoever to the direction of the general real estate market?
I think that's much easier.
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iwog says
Few individual listings also steer the direction for that locality. Won't you agree?
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gameisrigged says
gameisrigged,
I appreciate the effort. As you pointed out, I never choose "B" out of the two false choices that constituted Iwog's fake discussion. That's just another of fabrication of IWOG.
It is rather telling and ironic that my original complaint was that IWOG was misqouting me and had then deleted the actual misquoting, but he continued to refer to and quote the misquote as if it were true.
What can I say, lies and propaganda often contain and element of confusion and misdirection to achieve its intended effect.
Iwog operates on a well known principle of propaganda: If you just spout a large enough volume of lies and half-truths, some people will believe some of it.
I'm sure there will be more coming. Look out below :-).
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iwog says
You didn't just "leave it out", you substituted "B" for what he had actually written, and then continued pretending that was his position. Deplorable, really. And it wasn't "ad hominem"; he was protesting your attempt to misdirect and pigeonhole him into a false position, which is a valid complaint.
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47 male
Lafayette, CA
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gameisrigged says
No, I simply copied the only answer he gave. Perhaps he was just quoting me, but if that's the case, why would he even bother?
Do you know what's REALLY funny here? You don't even know what his position is! Go on sir, tell everyone where he stands! I challenged him to provide it multiple times but he just ran.
That was my purpose behind the whole A.-B.-C. thing in the first place, to make one last attempt to get him to admit to "Yes", "No", or "maybe".
So here's the original question again. It's entirely honest and has no hidden agenda. Is median home price:
A. A. So median is just as accurate in describing the market as $ per sq. ft. or Case-Shiller?
B. Not an accurate picture of the housing market.
C. Some other answer.
Justme will run from this question just like he ran from this question the first time. He'll turn it back on me because he doesn't really want to give an opinion. His entire purpose here is character assassination and the risk he runs of being wrong is a fate worse than death apparently. Ask him what he expects the real estate market to do next year. Seriously! Ask him, I dare you.
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http://dqnews.com/Articles/2010/News/California/Southern-CA/RRSCA101116.aspx
Iwog, how can you explain across the board sales volume down in all counties of California would still equate to increase in prices?
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47 male
Lafayette, CA
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bubblesitter says
Sales volume is way down, yet prices are either flat or higher in every single market except Ventura. In fact the number of homes sold in Ventura is the smallest in the entire sample, and therefore the least accurate by far. This should answer your first assumption: Lower sales do not necessarily result in lower prices.
Example:
San Diego sales volume Oct. 09: 3671
San Diego sales volume Oct. 10: 2750 (huge drop of 25%)
San Diego median sales price Oct. 09: $325,000.
San Diego median sales price Oct. 10: $334,500. (whoops!)
I don't need to go any further do I? Sales always fall during this time of year, but asking prices are rising and like-for-like prices look much better than median prices do.
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dude ... it's median sales price .. so the junk is gone and only good stuff is changing hands now. Things are still going down my friend.
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iwog says
You are dense as molasses, son. He DECLINED to play your little "gotcha" game, and I don't blame him. The rest of us get it. Try to catch up.
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Lafayette, CA
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gameisrigged says
And his opinion is what again?
There's no gotcha game here. Just me offering up my own analysis (along with other good intentioned individuals on both sides) with a few trolls taking pot shots and refusing to offer anything.
One more time. What's his opinion again? He spoke many paragraphs so surely he's offered SOMETHING right?
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iwog says
Lower prices FOLLOW lower sales volume. It doesn't happen instantly. It makes no sense to compare prices and sales volume in the same month and expect to see an effect.
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iwog says
You sure are an ass. What part of "declined to play your gotcha game" didn't you understand? YOU'RE the troll.
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Scottsdale, AZ
robertoaribas's website
GIR:
It is beyond pointless. The entire town of concord could be boarded up as a nuclear waste site, and all the property worth $0, and IWOG would still be on here saying that prices hadn't dropped, and that the median price of $0 didn't matter, because median didn't count. and that he predicted it all along anyways!
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iwog says
Do u have any specific examples of Listing prices rising... My redfin updates on a daily basis rarely show price increases.. I usually see price cuts exclusively... And ive been looking to buy in woodland hills or tarzana, cA for years now and i currently am seeing more house, more options, for less money...
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gameisrigged says
An honest question is never trolling. My honest question was "what is your opinion of median home prices as a market measure?"
He failed to answer. You failed to answer. You can't state his opinion because he hasn't offered an opinion. He doesn't give opinions, he just trolls people who DO have opinions.
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iwog says
So fall in demand or rise in demand, either way RE prices always goes up(especially when they are correcting from epic bubble). I am sorry you don't even admit that there was a bubble in recent years. LOL!
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Los Angeles Renter says
Specific examples of home prices aren't very useful. The article Bubble linked was a summary of thousands of individual sales.
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bubblesitter says
Look, you offered a premise:
"Home prices fall when sales volume falls"
YOUR OWN ARTICLE says the opposite! What more can I say?
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Bap33 says
That's him. He will use always use median for his advantage, even though he knows that median in current RE market is just the activity at bottom.
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Scottsdale, AZ
robertoaribas's website
Iwog:
I'll give you an answer: the median sales price in Phoenix is completely stable. Meanwhile, most areas I watch (the east valley) are falling and falling hard. So, maybe the mix of homes selling has changed, maybe less of the fringe areas are selling, now that further in areas are falling so fast, but both trends are definitely true: the zips I watch are ALL falling, meanwhile the median is not dropping at all city wide. Now, I know you don't care about Phoenix, it is however the data I have, and pore over day and night as I plan my investment strategies, so I suggest, without any data whatsoever, that something similar could very well happen in other cities.
ALso, when the bubble hit its top, sales volumes dropped, but sales prices kept rising for several months. Its like watching the coyote run off the cliff and keep running.
Guess what? gravity always wins! yeah gravity!
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iwog says
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bubblesitter says
I never said MEDIAN prices fall.
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bubblesitter says
I don't care what median prices do, that was just how YOUR article was measuring the market.
I was simply commenting on YOUR data. It didn't support your assertion. If you have data that DOES support your assertion, I'd love to see it.
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Bap33 says
The market is basically flat since April 2009 with California trending upward somewhat according to the legendary Case-Shiller.
"The market" hasn't had any sustained losses since early 2009. I fully understand that median is flawed and shouldn't be used.
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gameisrigged says [to IWOG]
That is exactly right, I explicitly declined to play Iwog's silly little gotcha game. I called him out on misquoting me, and he responded not by acknowledging or apologizing for that, but by misdirecting into a fake discussion involving false choices.
Thanks for taking the time to sort through Iwogs lies and nonsense. He thinks he can make up for truth by adding volume (as in loudness as well as quantity). We are here to point out that he will not get away with it.
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iwog says
No, but what you did IS trolling.
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47 male
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Yup lies and nonsense and stuff I will never get away with.
By the way, what was that opinion on median home prices again? I must have missed it. So did everyone else.
How come the "troll" is the only one interested in taking about the topic while the "non-trolls" keep bringing the conversation back to me? Very odd.................
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justme says
When someone gives me a fake choice, I just ignore the options and present my opinion anyway.
But that's just me.
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wouldn't make sense. people this year aren't making more than last year.
besides pension system is about to crash, unemployment might run out.... if people have less money prices can't go up.