WatchI now have 3 homes under contract. [I think the market mostly will go down, however, the price/rent ratios on these are good enough that I don't care. My long term plan is to get six more with mortgages as investor owned, priced 65 - 100K, a couple more cash, and another home for me to live in MUCH later as I believe higher end prices will drop for a ,long time still]
home 1: zip 85015 26K. Needs 4-5K in work [paint, partial flooring, broken skylight, stove, microwave, washer, dryer, fridge] 3/2. 2 car garage. median crappy part of town, rent comps $800, I have a friend 2 wants it will give it to him at $750. I can have it ready to move in 1 week. taxes $600 a year, hoa $180, blanket insurance. I will hire out management of this if my friend ever moves out, as it is 25 miles away, thus I would eventually lose 10% of rent.
home 2. zip 85201 33K. Needs 3k in work. [partial flooring, paint, washer/dryer/fridge] closer to me, so-so part of town. 3/2 2 covered parking 2 miles to ASU and 2 miles to MCC, rent comps $775 HOA $170 Taxes $600 a year. 1 week to prep.
Home 3. 85281 42K needs quick cleaning, and washer/dryer/fridge] rental comps $850 actually upgraded inside, might beat comps or rent very fast. 3/2/ 2covered patio. 2 miles to ASU, short walk to lightrail and free shuttle bus throughout Tempe. HOA $150 a month, taxes $800 and dropping.
These all 3 are cash purchases, as they are condos, and hard to finance. They are 75-85 percent off peak prices. And have never in their lives sold this low. In fact, I looked at 2 of the complexes 15 years ago when I taught at ASU, and prices then were in the low 50's (height of the savings and loan housing crash out here)
These are the three that appear to be coming through. One is HUD, the other 2 are short sales that have now been approved at these terms, but of course nothign is certain until the close.
I only feel it is fair to disclose what I am actually buying, since I write my fairly negative view of most real estate markets on here with frequency and gusto.
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robertoaribas says
Arizona ranks 43rd in per capita GDP. This is after sliding from #38 in just 5 years.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_by_GDP_per_capita_%28nominal%29
Your major industries in agriculture are at the expense of massive energy inputs and rapidly depleting groundwater supplies. The terminal END of Arizona agriculture can actually be potted on a graph. (Phoenix is the sinkhole city)
http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/news/articles/2009/08/02/20090802bucket-groundwater.html
Other than agriculture, Arizona is known for government jobs, government contracts, and construction for more people moving to Arizona. Like most red states, Arizona leeches money away from productive states like California in order to survive.
I'm not attacking an entire state, I actually like to visit Arizona in the winter time. I would just never invest money in Arizona real estate. Don't take it personally.
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robertoaribas's website
Since IWOG didn't bother to READ the article, he merely assumed it would prove its point:
AZ has 'surprising amount of water resources for a desert state' from the article. The MAJORITY of use is agricultural principally cotton. So NO, we aren't running out of water.
We EXPORT electricity to california, from our nuclear production.
Earlier, IWOG commented that now is not the time to buy in Arizona because "natural gas" is cheap right now...
OK, thanks for that. Buying a property at 30% off its 1990 price, and for 40K that will rent for $800 a month is a bad idea, because natural gas is cheap right now. got it.
Really, this just proves who IWOG is: an idiot who will pull anything out of his tail in an argument.
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Pasadena, CA
Sounds like a good plan & you're lucky to be able to have such good price/rent ratios in your local area without having to be an absentee owner.
While I do agree with iwog that Phoenix has no real economic purpose and will be a ghost town 100 years from now, by then you will have squeezed a lot of rent from the renters. Detroit has a better chance of still surviving 100 years from now.
I actually wish I were closer to Las Vegas so that I could buy some investment properties there without being an absentee landlord. The price/rent ratios are as good there as your metro area & they have a better chance of recovering and thriving due to the great entertainment ecosystem already in place there. All the people who work at the strip, making menial wages for the most part, need somewhere to live.
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Roberto those purchases you are making are about as safe as you can get based on the information you are giving. Congrats and thank you for sharing.
A 40k condo that rents for 800k has a gross cap rate around 25%! Even with high vacancy/expenses you should easily get 15% cap rate.
There is no way anything in coastal Cali can be bought anywhere near that cap rate even when buying at courthouse auction. (Might be a rare example here and there though but not the norm.)
The only investing in Coastal Cali I would be doing is flipping foreclosures bought at courthouse to FHA buyers - but there is tons of competition now - but some people are making money which is not easy anymore.
Right now I'm trying to decide which area is best to invest in cash flow rentals between Vegas, AZ, or Socal High dessert (palm springs, IE, palmdale are all down up to 80% like AZ). So far my conclusion is that they are all equally distressed areas and probably the biggest issue of where to 'buy a buncha rentals' would be where I decide to live and I'm thinking AZ is the nicest of all these areas.
Currently im in Los Angeles renting and sitting on a pile o cash that is earning 1%.... Im still very angry about low CD rates and don't want Ben Bernake to 'force me to spend my money' but I'm thinking about it seriously... Ben might be able to keep rates at zero longer than I can stand earning zero....
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condos below 40K... damn, I wish I had that option :-)
Good for you Roberto!
now if you can post your CREDIT CARD number and SOCIAL SECURITY number here ... *grin*
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robertoaribas says
Yeah, all the sinkholes in Phoenix are caused by aliens and not by the fact that your water table has dropped 200 feet.
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PockyClipsNow says
There are millions of people like you just waiting for the right time to get back into real estate.
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Mark - have you considered what could happen to Vegas economy over time when slowly more and more state and local governments allow gambling due to being broke? Taxpayers are fed up with higher taxes - its much easier to pass a law to allow indian gaming off the reservation. They tried to pass this recently in CA i think but no luck yet.
Really the only reason Vegas exists is due to state laws restricting gaming - as these slowly go away Vegas might end up a ghost town with a million vacants like Baltimore/Detroit. Especially if gas is $5+ a gallon it will kill vegas.
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PockyClipsNow says
Very good point!
The thing is that Vegas has a 50 year head start on all the Indian gambling casinos and such. It's not just gambling anymore that attracts people to Vegas. The entertainment infrastructure is there to the point that it'll take decades for any other locality to become the destination that Vegas is for entertainment. You won't see $100 million Cirque Du Soleil theatres/stages built anytime soon in these up-and-coming locations. It took Vegas 40 years to get to that level of maturity (I was in awe when I went to see O! at the Bellagio the first month it opened).
By the time that happens, the price/rent ratio is so well tilted in the investor's favor in Las Vegas, that it won't matter that your property is worth 10% of what you bought it for, since you will have derived so much cash-flow income by then.
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Mark: I would tend to agree it will take so long for this to be a factor it wont matter....
I'm planning on spending a lot more time in 'the dessert' checking out real estate this winter.
One plan I have is to spend 500k to buy 10 rentals. If they each net 500 a month profit average thats 5000 a month and I could 'semi retire' if i wanted to assuming I could pull this off.
It sure would suck to buy into a 'future ghost town' but you can protect yourself like Roberto has done buy buying near mass transit/colleges. Also maybe buying near the local HUD /welfare office/city hall/prison/jail/food4less/walmart might be a good tip. Avoid buying near gold or silver mines! hehe.
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Pasadena, CA
PockyClipsNow says
The point is to continue your real profession, which is hopefully a career you already enjoy. The $5k per month profit is just icing on the cake. 1-2 years later you'll have enough profit to purchase another property cash.
That's the best way to protect yourself from the doom-and-gloom you hear about Social Security and Medicare being bankrupt soon.
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PockyClipsNow says
Churchill, 1909:
"And a friend of mine was telling me the other day that, in the parish of Southwark, about 350 pounds a year was given away in doles of bread by charitable people in connection with one of the churches. As a consequence of this charity, the competition for small houses and single-room tenements is so great that rents are considerably higher in the parish!
"All goes back to the land, and the land owner is able to absorb to himself a share of almost every public and every private benefit, however important or however pitiful those benefits may be.
"I hope you will understand that, when I speak of the land monopolist, I am dealing more with the process than with the individual land owner who, in most cases, is a worthy person utterly unconscious of the character of the methods by which he is enriched. I have no wish to hold any class up to public disapprobation. I do not think that the man who makes money by unearned increment in land is morally worse than anyone else who gathers his profit where he finds it in this hard world under the law and according to common usage. It is not the individual I attack; it is the system. It is not the man who is bad; it is the law which is bad. It is not the man who is blameworthy for doing what the law allows and what other men do; it is the State which would be blameworthy if it were not to endeavour to reform the law and correct the practice.
We do not want to punish the landlord.
We want to alter the law."
http://www.landvaluetax.org/current-affairs-comment/winston-churchill-said-it-all-better-then-we-can.html
Maybe some day we will realize taxing the shit out of leechfuck slumlords to break their business model is a win-win.
Not going to, as they say, hold my breath on this of course.
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Troy says
Landlords provide a valuable service to people who prefer to rent instead of own. Some rent because they find that it makes sense for their paticular situation financially over owning. Some rent because they live paycheck to paycheck and can never save for a downpayment (because they live beyond their means, or make too little income), even in places like Las Vegas or Phoenix where it's cheaper to buy than to rent.
Nobody forces these people to rent. Most landlords that aren't from old money simply lived way below their means and saved up for such an investment which will help their financial futures. Would you rather eliminate all landlords and only allow the horrific public housing projects to replace the valuable service they provide to society?
Now, of course it makes sense that you're more likely to make a better return on your investment if you rent close to a WIC center or Walmart instead of a Whole Foods Market.
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Mark_LA says
I really hate self-serving bullshit statements like that.
Nobody forces these people to rent.
Supply is artificially limited by all the LLs, making the price of entry of ownership higher.
LLs of SFHs as LLs are just leeches on the productive. I think LLs of MFH is perfectly respectable for economic and social reasons you state, but I'd like to see Prop 13 protections removed for LLs and their rents taxed relative to their profits.
Landlordism is an immense drain on this society and is in fact one of the dominant reasons the economy and society itself is fucked now.
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Troy says
Already done...the profits are reported on IRS 1040 Schedule E: http://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/f1040se.pdf .
But like you and Churchill would like to believe, they take the taxes that landlords pay and recycle them back to WIC centers and welfare checks that get cashed at Walmart, only to benefit the landlords who own properties next to those places.
If I choose to be a renter, then I can't rent a house with a yard and swings for my kids to play in? I must rent an apartment in order to keep the prices of SFHs artificially low for owner occupants by curtailing demand?
Earlier in my career I was a management consultant with one of the Big Four firms and spent most of my time traveling on business. So you're saying if I choose to go back to that career again, I shouldn't be able to rent a real home (which I get reimbursed for) when I'm assigned to a project out of town for 6 months, where my daughter can play in the back yard? My only option as a renter should be the Oakwood apartments?
Doesn't make a lot of sense to me.
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Mark_LA says
You kinda misunderstand. I was speaking of economic rent really, and more towards the confiscatory level of taxation.
Prop 13 and rent control has resulted in the basic freezing of mfh supply in LA and SF. If a LL improves his building or builds a new one he gets hit with higher taxes based on the value of the capital improvement.
This is retarded. We should encourage new building by taxing it less, not more. AND we should also tax the shit out old buildings that have run through their depreciation and should probably be replaced with better stock.
Renting out of condos and SFHs should be illegalized, as a business at least. No interest deduction. Just fuck off and find a better, more constructive use of your capital.
they take the taxes that landlords pay
LLs don't pay those taxes, those are pass-through taxes from rents. LL income is not based on costs, it's based on what the market will bear.
If I choose to be a renter, then I can’t rent a house with a yard and swings for my kids to play in?
If rents were taxed then buying wouldn't be the Major Production it is now. It's only due to the fact that the Rent is Too Damn High that houses cost so much. Eliminate rents and the price of housing will crash to the capital cost of the improvement + the premium it takes to win the bid against others who would want to live there.
My only option as a renter should be the Oakwood apartments?
Your transient story is just smoke to obscure the millions of Americans that are rent slaves in this country.
Transient homeowners in your example should not really displace people who need a place to live in their community.
AFTER those people get their homes, then the transient rental market could be accommodated.
Part of the problem this society has is the great dichotomy between SFH and MFH housing. I'd like to see us reduce this gap; I have ideas but it's pointless bringing them up here & now since all this housing crap is never going to improve in my lifetime, if ever.
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Troy says
Interesting link. Probably worthwhile for anyone in this debate, whether they agree with it - or you - or not, just to capture the different perspective.
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Troy says
To understand your blathering anyone that makes money on any property other than an apartment complex is the devil and are evil leeches. Uncle Ho would be very proud of you, but fortunately, most of the people in VN have abandoned Uncle Ho's principles long ago! You are stuck in the past. You often quote Ho Chi Mihn, so how come you have never moved there permanently? Are the current communists in power not communist enough for you? I've spent a considerable amount of time in Vietnam over the past 2 decades, and most of the Vietnamese people don't even feel the same way you do. They love to make money and would love to be even more capitalistic. Most people are the same around the world, it's just their governments that are different. If you talk to the average Vietnamese citizen in either Ho Chi Minh City (Thành phố Hồ Chí Minh) or Hanoi they are capitalist at heart and wish they could be even more so. Your utopia in the US would be all renters living in apartments with no one renting homes from the evil American leeches. Oh yea, sort of like we have now and we call them slums, goverment housing, "The projects." U.S. "projects" are paradise compared to the equvilent in Ho Chi Minh City, Dalat, Hanoi or any other big city in VN. Get a clue because your behaviour and mindset is offencive even to the Vietnamese people.
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Orland Park, IL
Oh good! another post where iwog and robertoaribas are going to jab at and insult each other for the next 400 comments. I think I'm moving on now. There has to be something better to read over at FoxNews.
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Jeff O says
There's not one single insult from me directed at robert in this entire thread.
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Scottsdale, AZ
robertoaribas's website
Iwog didn't insult me, rather he chose to insult an entire metropolitan area... and I haven't responded in a day...
But really, buying property is about price/rent market fundamentals etc.
Saying "don't buy Phoenix because it is the desert and doesn't have an economic reason to exist" is really really idiotic.
By the same logic, The bay area and LA should be simple port cities with populations of a million or less.
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@roberto - dont get me wrong....phoenix is my second favorite city in the usa (behind san francisco..but SF has an ocean!). what i like about phoenix are (were?) the stable middleclass. if you like the outdoors the mountains and desert are just a short drive away...fantastic climate for hiking and 4x4....phoenix is 'california without an ocean'...LOL.
10 years ago before the big build, it was a different city. all the new construction in queen creek and buckeye and west surprise are going to be a drag on phoenix and arizona in general.....a really scary situation.
people that denegrate phoenix as a whole are really ill informed but we are no where near a bottom in housing or the economic downturn. i predict 50% of housing in the phoenix metro area will go to zero...yes zero. no one will buy and the gov will bulldoze new homes just like they did in the 1930's. wait til the MERS problem really kicks in......!
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Los Angeles, CA
I can see Troy is frustrated with high priced housing, so am I. But you can't ever change the system really. p13 is permanent and so are 'slumlords' - who get a bad rap. In fact landlords have been having there azz handed to them during this crash if they bought during the bubble. Its work and has huge risks attached to it from loss of $, lawsuits, you could get killed also I suppose. In fact in Los Angeles I am alway seeing sec-8 people who live in the SAME or better housing than I do. Its common for them to be in regular 'middle class housing' not slums. Quite frustrating to have leeching welfare 'liars' who drive a mercedes live in same house as me when I have savings, a real job, and drive a honda. Anyway we are all equally free to become sec-8 leeches or landlords - its freedom get it?
A better approach would be to play the game - now might be an OK time to 'lock in' a low p13 tax rate in CA so you could 'victimize' people by letting them live in your house in exchange for a promise to pay you. I dont like to get involved in 'how the tax code SHOULD work' discussions its a pointless wasto time. So is being angry.
Troy consider moving to AZ or LV - there is no p13 in those states (so your taxes get jacked up perpetually! heaven?! i think not) but the prices are totally sane and 'real world pricing'.
So many people complain about the high prices where they live (coastal CA, manhattan, etc) but of course no one wants to move to flyover....which is a huge reason prices are high...
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PockyClipsNow says
2 weeks ago I was at the market in Glendale, CA and someone in front of me was paying for their groceries with a new type of credit card I had never seen with a beautiful picture of the California coast labeled "Golden State Advantage". Later on I figured out this card has replaced the old paper "Food Stamps" people used when I was a kid: http://www.ebtproject.ca.gov/ .
When I was in the parking lot, I noticed this person was packing up the groceries that he had bought with the tax dollars we all pay and made their way to his pocket into the trunk of their Mercedez S-class with pimped-up 20" chrome wheels.
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Bellingham, WA
PockyClipsNow says
Robbing a bank is "work" and has huge risks, too.
The value of an economic activity is simply the wealth creation involved. LLs do not create wealth. They expropriate it.
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Yeah I know welfare cheats are 'reality'. I know a guy whose 'common law wife' lives with him - she got him setup as a sec-8 LL but get this - he cashes the checks and gives the $ to her. Of course she gets all other welfare (food stamp/AFDC).
Most people I know actually marry thier wife legally (dumb!)- then she quits her job after the first baby is born and they can never ever get welfare due to the husband has income. Much much smarter to not get married and leech off the system I suppose. Its legal too athough I have read the gov can inspect your house to make sure 'no man is living there' -cuz thats illegal?- but they give you plenty of notice so lots of time for him to clear out. hilarious.
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lurking says
It's kinda funny how the Viet Minh won their war partially due to the abusive absentee landlords living the fat life in the cities on the backs of tenant farmers, and now they have fallen right back into the same historical pattern of high land values and abusive landlords.
Exact same thing happening in "Communist China" -- rampant speculation in housing impoverishing working people and causing truly colossal misallocation of investment.
The sad thing is, back in 1970-71, for a brief period of time the prior agrarian economy of Vietnam (before it industrialized in the 80s and 90s) was in fact made the most just and equitable, with tenant farming reduced from 60%+ in the coastal lowlands to almost non-existant, thanks to Thieu's "Land to the Tiller" program that was partially funded by the US. (We paid the administrative costs and the GVN paid to buy out the LLs via bonds).
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,905909,00.html
To understand your blathering anyone that makes money on any property other than an apartment complex is the devil and are evil leeches
And as for my "blathering", all I can say it my moral arguments have a VERY strong tradition, stretching from Adam Smith's "Wealth of Nations" to Jefferson's private letters, to Thomas Paine's "Agrarian Justice", to 19th century moral philosophers like J.S. Mill, and to much of the intellectual milieu of the Progressive Era, eg. Mark Twain, Tolstoy, George Bernard Shaw, Sun Yat-Sen, and hundreds more.
http://www.cooperativeindividualism.org/georgism_01.html
Capitalism's strength is the capitalist creating and/or bringing to market goods and services. But land was not created by the capitalist, it was created 4.5 billion years ago! And land that is in demand needs no marketing, these days at least.
When someone is profiting from something that he did not create, that's a form of theft. So much of the crap economics of the world can be found in this exploitation -- the collapsed housing bubbles of Japan, the US, UK, Spain, Ireland, and no doubt China and Vietnam.
All this misinvestment and the poverty among progress is entirely due to not understanding land economics.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Progress_and_Poverty
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Los Angeles, CA
Troy: I can't imagine a world where its illegal to rent a house out. CCCP? Cuba? Where? Even in communist china they can rent out thier house. Are hotel rooms ok to rent? If so can I rent you my house 'nightly' and thats ok but month to month is not? Private land ownership is the basis of every successful country that ever did or will (so far) exist.
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PockyClipsNow says
Oh, no. It is very legal in Cuba to rent your house to foreign tourists: it's called "casa particular" and the govt. explicitly permits and taxes it. It was legal and widely practiced in USSR, too.
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Bellingham, WA
PockyClipsNow says
I would just tax rents all to hell to get the supply out of the LLs hands and into families who desire to buy.
Curiously, this does not even go against Prop 13 : )
And as for how well the modern economy is doing, maybe you're not up on current events but take a fucking look around you.
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I am taking a look around very hard and I see only things getting better and better.
We should all celebrate as real estate 'gets back to normal' - I have been waiting for this since 2004. Low RE prices means everyone wins and there is more money to buy things and support your local community (or buy crap from china).
I think I have the same taxation belief Troy has which is basically "dont tax me, tax the #%*% outta the other guy". Most people are on this page.
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Bellingham, WA
PockyClipsNow says
LOL.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/18/us/18calif.html?src=twrhp
The shit has not yet hit the fan, locally, statewide, nationally, or globally.
But it's certainly arcing towards it.
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Saint George, UT
elliemae's website
iwog says
The sexual tension between you two is palpable.
It seems that Roberto posted his recent purchases to toot his own horn and knew that it would invite comments from Iwog. Then he gets hurt feelings because Iwog commented. Roberto, you knew that he would. You said:
robertoaribas says
You've made it clear that you disagree with Iwog and think he's an idiot. Iwog has made it clear that he doesn't respect your investment advice.
iwog says
Why can't you two accept that you have differing views of your chosen areas? There's good and bad about each.
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Scottsdale, AZ
robertoaribas's website
elliemae: Iwhack didn't post a single comment about my investments, rather he chose to insult an entire city and state, and me for living here. You will notice that I have NEVER said "all the home in california will eventually be worth $0" or "don't buy at any price in california, it has smog" or anything even 1% as stupid as what Iwhack chose to write on this thread, and many others?
Stupid is as stupid does, if Iwhack decides to know write idiotic things on Patrick, i will cease calling him out as an idiot.
If this distinction escapes you, well that is all you.
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elliemae says
Elliemae you are right about Roberto, he's a bloody self serving mongrel and braggart. As most here know he rarely has anything good to say about anyone else. He has been drinking his own egotisical kool-aid far too long and the dog in his post picture is probably his only friend.
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lurking--
I'm not sure. The dog really doesn't look that happy...
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Scottsdale, AZ
robertoaribas's website
I posted on Patrick, years ago when it was a simple blog each night, that I was selling my homes.... I took flak for that too.
If I continued to write why I think most housing will go down, and didn't post that I am actually buying, i would be called a liar on here if someone found it out. Post it and I'm a braggart.
So it truly is a no-win situation, at least with the no count low class stupid people on here [ie the last two who chose personal insults, rather than any reasoned based response]
Doesn't matter at all, I made half a million dollars on the bubble on the way up, I intend to take it way past a million dollars on the other side. "oh he doesn't have friends"... "on he is a braggart..." whatever. Sad to be as jealous and pathetic as the two who just chose to make those comments...
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robertoaribas says
Nope--no one would call you a braggart for that.
robertoaribas says
This statement on the other hand...
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Scottsdale, AZ
robertoaribas's website
And by the way, you can amend property #2 above.
I countered the bank at $30K, and they responded at $32K... So $1000 less than what is posted above. However, due to writing a dozen short sale offers to get these three, I had gotten the details confused. Yesterday, when I went by to inspect, much to my surprise since I was thinking of another condo in the complex, the unit is entirely tiled and the flooring is in good shape. new cabinets in the kitchen, and only some minor paint/cleanup and a bit of landscaping on the patio to do... Plenty of rentals look worse when the tenants move out. So $1000 less, and less work then I thought to get it ready.
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robertoaribas says
Only stating the facts. You are constantly denegrating others by calling them Stupid, Idiot, Dimwits, Nitwits and other childish names. Everyone on this site knows this unless they have you on ignore. Peace Out!