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Housing Outlook 2011: When Home Prices Will Head Up

By Hysteresis   Follow   Sun, 28 Nov 2010, 6:58pm   2,195 views   24 comments
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http://realestate.yahoo.com/promo/housing-outlook-2011-when-home-prices-will-head-up.html

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1. HousingBoom Follow Befriend (1) 48 threads 172 comments

   1   11:00pm Sun 28 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   lol they have been saying that since 2006.

2. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,571 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

   2   11:33pm Sun 28 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   HousingBoom says lol they have been saying that since 2006. That's true, but just remember realtors have been right far more than they have been wrong. There have been many huge fortunes made in real estate.

3. CrazyMan Follow Befriend 449 comments Boulder Creek, CA

   3   12:49am Mon 29 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Still depends on where and what market segment. Where rent has a reasonable parity and where jobs support it, yeah, you bet. Where rent is considerably cheaper than to buy, except for a few special places (and by special places I mean Atherton) it will correct further. Beyond that, prices in the 400K+ will continue to go down. Mid- high will "tank" coming to a parity where 20% down +/- 5/10% rent parity is reasonable. Anything beyond that is crap and is a bubble. In the bay area we've only begun. Just wait.

4. klarek Follow Befriend (7) 1 threads 1,217 comments

   4   9:21am Mon 29 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   iwog says That’s true, but just remember realtors have been right far more than they have been wrong. Not by my estimation they haven't. In the past four years, they're batting .100 or worse.

5. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,571 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

   5   9:42am Mon 29 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   klarek says Not by my estimation they haven’t. In the past four years, they’re batting .100 or worse. Four out of what? Four hundred? As long as population continues to increase and resources continue to be limited, real estate will always be a long term win. One can make the argument that ultimately land is the ONLY thing of value since everything other than air and rain is tied to it. Pent up demand is building. New house construction is almost dead. Some people caught in the early stages of the crash are going to be out of credit jail next year and they will be looking to buy. Even if it didn't end in 2009, there's a ZERO percent probability that the bear market will extend to 2015. As for Japan, homes in the United States are already cheaper than Japan so what are people betting on exactly? USA housing ghetto to the world? Not gonna happen. Now is the time to buy.

6. klarek Follow Befriend (7) 1 threads 1,217 comments

   6   10:11am Mon 29 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   iwog says Four out of what? Four hundred? Yeah dummy, realtards have been around for four hundred years. They landed on Plymouth Rock with the pilgrims. iwog says Pent up demand is building. New house construction is almost dead. There is no pent up demand. Sales are down like what, 20% from a year ago? When interest rates are lower? How does that equate to demand building, bird brain? New house construction is almost dead.... not exactly. They are still building, despite a huge overhang of inventory from the bubble. They scaled back, but shouldn't even be building if we were to ever reach an equilibrium in a timely manner. iwog says As for Japan, homes in the United States are already cheaper than Japan so what are people betting on exactly? That is completely irrelevant. We've been over this many many times. You cannot compare prices in one country's versus another. You have to consider all kinds of factors that differentiate them. What you CAN compare is one country to itself, at two different times. That gives you far fewer differentiations to control for or consider. Hence, we can use the market fundamentals with a certain amount of fidelity and error to estimate where prices should be or will be in the future. It's more sophisticated than your approach at least.

7. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,571 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

   7   12:23pm Mon 29 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   shrekgrinch says Population increase? For the first time in its history, California has not gained population and will not be receiving any additional congressional seats/electoral votes as per the 2010 census as a result. By the time of the 2020 census, California may even lose congressional seats/electoral votes. False. California is not receiving any additional seats because the population of California is growing at near the national average rate of growth. Obviously you only gain seats if you're growing FASTER than the national average and you lose seats if you're growing SLOWER than the national average.

8. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,571 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

   8   12:27pm Mon 29 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   klarek says There is no pent up demand. Sales are down like what, 20% from a year ago? When interest rates are lower? How does that equate to demand building, bird brain? By definition if x population buys a baseline (average) amount of real estate per year, and the number of sales for any given year goes below that baseline, it is creating pent up demand. People who want to move or need to move are being prevented from doing so by credit jail, fear, or unemployment. All of this is pent up demand. Denying it is kind of absurd.

9. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,571 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

   9   12:33pm Mon 29 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   According to the census, California's population increased 381,293 people from 2008 to 2009. That's greater than 1% growth per year. Please stop insisting your fictional data is correct. http://www.census.gov/popest/cities/files/SUB-EST2009_6.csv

10. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,571 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    10   12:55pm Mon 29 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   shrekgrinch says 1) Census was taken in 2010, not 2009. Those are estimates. So, who is quoting fictional data here? Once again, I quote something and you quote nothing. In your world apparently a blind assertion of "California population is not growing" trumps a census growth estimate. shrekgrinch says Uh, no. California already had such a large population base that if it only kept increasing in population at replacement-level percentages per year, it would have gained an additional seat at least. I have no idea what this is supposed to mean, but California will not gain seats in the House or electoral college unless it gains population above and beyond the national average. Saying California's population isn't growing because California isn't gaining seats doesn't make any sense and is simply wrong.

11. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,571 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    11   1:01pm Mon 29 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   shrekgrinch says Conscious schills for the Realtard commenting on this board are a dime a dozen. But the unwilling dupes in denial as you sometimes appear to be are a real special treat, I must say. That's nice. What's your forecast for 2011? I trust it will be just as wrong as your forecast for 2009 and 2010. Of course you might be correct. Why not type it here and we'll find out?

12. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,571 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    12   1:08pm Mon 29 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   shrekgrinch says What forecast? I don’t make one because I don’t have to. The hard cold facts do it for me, without any efforts on my part. Ahem…where’s the ‘demand’, Iwog? You know have the correct economic definition to use in finding the data to support your contention that it is out there. Where is it? Yeah that's nice too, but I asked you a question. What's your real estate forecast for 2011? You've already called me a "dupe" so I'm interested in what a non-dupe thinks about next year's market. As far as your question goes, I already listed the demand but I'll do so again: 1. people don't stay in credit jail past 5 years. 2. the population continues to increase despite your false claims to the contrary. 3. there IS a recovery and unemployment will drop. 4. market fear is always temporary and always resolves as it becomes clear the sky isn't falling. I've been kind enough to answer your questions. Lets see if you're honest enough to answer mine.

13. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,571 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    13   4:10pm Mon 29 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Thank you! I promise not to beat you over the head if you're wrong and prices go up 10% next year. ;) I don't like condos and will stick to SFRs. I agree that picking the right neighborhood is extremely important.

14. LAO Follow Befriend 78 threads 405 comments

    14   6:40pm Mon 29 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   iwog says That’s true, but just remember realtors have been right far more than they have been wrong. There have been many huge fortunes made in real estate. Same could be said about the stock market... don't all good things come to an end eventually?

15. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,571 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    15   7:48pm Mon 29 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   shrekgrinch says shrekgrinch says Yeah that’s nice too, but I asked you a question. Good for you. I notice you do so to deflect off your screw-up that I called you on. You made your prediction, not me. I don’t have to defend anything. iwog says I already listed the demand but I’ll do so again No, you did not. ‘Demand’ with regards to housing is an economic term and you know it. None of your points prove that demand exists nor will it exist (not my fault you chose to stake in something you can’t prove because it hasn’t happened yet). iwog says I’ve been kind enough to answer your questions. No you haven’t. You’ve offered red herrings at best (see above). I’d like to see proof that what you describe will happen. Show me the time machine. iwog says the population continues to increase despite your false claims to the contrary. Sorry. But it is not a ‘claim’ but an absolute fact, like the sky being blue. But denial can’t operate very well when absolute facts get into the way, so I can see why you still stay in denial. I guess all this means you don't have the balls to actually say the real estate market is going down. That's pretty amazing considering you called me a "dupe" for buying right now. Take a seat next to justme. Both of you have so much fear you can't even write the words "real estate is going down" although you'll viciously attack anyone who says it's going up. I'm sorry folks but this is beyond pathetic.

16. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,571 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    16   7:49pm Mon 29 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Los Angeles Renter says Same could be said about the stock market… don’t all good things come to an end eventually? Yup they certainly do. All bad markets also come to an end eventually. Generally after 2-4 years.

17. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,571 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    17   7:50pm Mon 29 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   shrekgrinch says iwog says the population continues to increase despite your false claims to the contrary. Sorry. But it is not a ‘claim’ but an absolute fact, like the sky being blue. But denial can’t operate very well when absolute facts get into the way, so I can see why you still stay in denial. So it's an absolute fact that the population is decreasing? LOL

18. ¥ Follow Befriend 35 threads 5,700 comments Bellingham, WA

    18   8:38pm Mon 29 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   iwog says All bad markets also come to an end eventually. Generally after 2-4 years. Depends on the entry. We entered this "bad market" after a 5 year bubble run that got out us of the last "bad market". Here's the consumer debt graph in log scale. Note the current flattening is worse than than the early 80s recession that was caused by Volcker putting the brakes on the Baby Boomer economy of the late 70s (the front half of the baby boom was aged 25 to 34 in 1980). The 1980s economy was ready to spring back once interest rates were lowered to under 10%, plus Raygun's tripling the national debt in nominal terms (doubling it in real terms) didn't hurt either. The entry into the current crisis is entirely different. We've successfully integrated our productive economy with China and Mexico's: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/DMANEMP reducing our durable goods employment to something from the 1940s in # of jobs if not wages. The only thing holding the economy together is education and health: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/USEHS and these are quasi-government sectors that the Republican no-tax program is simply going to slaughter this decade. 2-4 years my ass.

19. ¥ Follow Befriend 35 threads 5,700 comments Bellingham, WA

    19   8:52pm Mon 29 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Here's another chart I cooked up: Number of People per health/education worker

20. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,571 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    20   8:58pm Mon 29 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Plug in the fact that productivity keeps rising. Then realize an economy where nobody works and robots do everything is still a viable economy. The ONLY thing that matters now is distribution of created wealth. I'm not worried about jobs nearly as much as I'm worried about Republicans packing more and more money in the top 1%. Even then, we'll see a series of booms and busts rather than a long depression.

21. ¥ Follow Befriend 35 threads 5,700 comments Bellingham, WA

    21   9:10pm Mon 29 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   iwog says The ONLY thing that matters now is distribution of created wealth True enough & a good point. I think we're in the "long depression" now tho. We haven't yet adjusted our economy to the fact that the American middle-class standard of living is going to continue to disappear without serious & careful gov't intervention though. 2012 is going to be interesting.

22. native94027 Follow Befriend 2 threads 100 comments Atherton, CA

    22   2:31am Tue 30 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   2011 will be the year that increasing numbers of people will start calling this a "Depression".

23. justme Follow Befriend (2) 33 threads 3,460 comments

    23   7:19am Tue 30 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Japan and japanese real estate has been in a long depression from 1991-2010 (so far). Anyone who thinks 2006-2010 is the extent of the US depression should keep this in mind.

24. tatupu70 Follow Befriend (3) 15 threads 5,643 comments

    24   7:20am Tue 30 Nov 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   When you guys talk about depression, are you talking about the overall economy or just housing?