Patrick.net

but but but I thought the bottom was 2009 ?

By pkowen   Follow   Wed, 9 Feb 2011, 12:47pm   13,836 views   157 comments
Watch (4)   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

Home prices to hit bottom this year, report says

Read more: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2011/02/08/BUC81HK33N.DTL#ixzz1DUrCcUzJ

« First     « Previous     Viewing Comments 78-117 of 157     Next »     Last »     See most liked comments

1. ch_tah Follow Befriend 3 threads 391 comments

   78   10:44am Fri 11 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (2)   joshuatrio says ch_tah says But an “if” that has 0% chance of happening is not worth mentioning. That’s your opinion. And you know what they say about opinions… You make is sound like a return to conservative lending standards is a bad thing. Unless you’re underwater, or have recently made a house purchase - a return to “sane” banking would be a good thing (long term) for our economy. Edit: http://blog.useforeclosurelaw.com/2011/02/07/housing-debt-financing-is-disappearing/?source=patrick.net#post-233 this article today was a pretty good read. If financing becomes difficult in the future - and lending standard do tighten - I don’t see any reason why they won’t start requiring 20% down again - or at least a higher percentage…. Heck, if they are requiring 3.5% now - that’s a huge leap from nothing during the boom. Even worse, if banks refuse to lend, it’ll just make things cheaper. Granted, all we can do is guess at this stage in the game, but saying that the chance of lending standards changing is 0% is pure hogwash. Ok, I guess that's your opinion. Be sure to let me know when 20% down is required again.

2. grywlfbg Follow Befriend 220 comments

   79   10:47am Fri 11 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   robertoaribas says actually IWAGGLE’s above quote was merely one of his MANY restatements… Before that, he had claimed that there would be no drop in price last fall due to pent up demand. He had post after post how the $8k credit hadn’t made any difference in the bay area, etc. etc. etc. Anybody who has been reading his BS on here, and has the time to look back can probably find his old posts along those lines. Only ONCE prices were clearly falling, did he revise his prediction to include small price drops. later, he revised it to include the aforementioned 8 to 10% drop… He argued stridently that the low of 2009 would never be breached, and we had all missed the bottom. How is life at the ministry of truth treating you IWOG? Uh, let's not forget that all of the bears on this board have made a ton of restatements over the years. Chastising Iwog for changing his predictions is the height of hypocrisy. You all need to look in the mirror before you pile on to someone. I happen to disagree w/ Iwog - I believe that the govt took such extraordinary measures to halt the decline that should have occurred but the economy still has structural problems and that we can't support current prices. But after observing the lengths the govt will go to I've stopped trying to predict the bottom. At the end of the day, it's cheaper for me to rent than to buy in my area so I'm still renting. When the math changes I'll buy.

3. joshuatrio Follow Befriend 41 threads 704 comments Monterey, CA

   80   10:59am Fri 11 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   ch_tah says Ok, I guess that’s your opinion. Be sure to let me know when 20% down is required again. That's all opinions are - opinions. But completely dismissing an idea, just because you don't agree with it doesn't make it not worth mentioning. We may never see 20% down again, but we may never see 0%... Who knows? What if banks require 40% ? **gasp** People would actually have to save money again if they wanted the luxury of buying a home (when was that ever such a bad thing) ! You're on a forum - guess what you typically read on forums - you got it - "opinions."

4. bubblesitter Follow Befriend (5) 10 threads 2,329 comments

   81   11:07am Fri 11 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Troy says joshuatrio says a return to “sane” banking would be a good thing (long term) for our economy. I’m a happy renter and I’m not entirely sure about this. There’s this $6T mortgage bubble we’ve got to pay off . . . http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/HHMSDODNS This! I am not sure why the 2009 bottom callers can't see it. Oh they pretend not to know it. I get it.

5. ch_tah Follow Befriend 3 threads 391 comments

   82   11:11am Fri 11 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   joshuatrio says ch_tah says Ok, I guess that’s your opinion. Be sure to let me know when 20% down is required again. That’s all opinions are - opinions. But completely dismissing an idea, just because you don’t agree with it doesn’t make it not worth mentioning. We may never see 20% down again, but we may never see 0%… Who knows? What if banks require 40% ? **gasp** People would actually have to save money again if they wanted the luxury of buying a home (when was that ever such a bad thing) ! You’re on a forum - guess what you typically read on forums - you got it - “opinions.” I'm not sure what your point is. I understand these are all opinions and predictions. I said the chances of your idea (20% down requirement) is pretty much 0% for the foreseeable future. If you want to live in fantasy land of unrealistic "ifs" that's your prerogative. I'd rather focus on what might realistically happen. I agree that requirement a larger down payment would be a good idea. It should have been the requirement all along. That doesn't mean it's going to happen again.

6. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,579 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

   83   11:13am Fri 11 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   bubblesitter says This! I am not sure why the 2009 bottom callers can’t see it. Oh they pretend not to know it. I get it. It's not relevant and it doesn't have to be paid off. It can be printed or simply turned into more permanent debt. The federal government simply cannot allow the deflationary scenario that is so often presented by the bears. They will literally do anything necessary to keep the economy from collapsing and the government from shrinking. The only possible doomsday scenario is an inflationary one.

7. joshuatrio Follow Befriend 41 threads 704 comments Monterey, CA

   84   11:27am Fri 11 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   ch_tah says I’m not sure what your point is. I understand these are all opinions and predictions. I said the chances of your idea (20% down requirement) is pretty much 0% for the foreseeable future. If you want to live in fantasy land of unrealistic “ifs” that’s your prerogative. I’d rather focus on what might realistically happen. I agree that requirement a larger down payment would be a good idea. It should have been the requirement all along. That doesn’t mean it’s going to happen again. I will treat this, future and past comments posted by you as irrelevant and useless. If you disagree with myself or others users on this board, no matter how radical ones "opinion" might be, consider yourself out-of-line and borderline criminal. Going forward, please stop posting your opinion as most of what you state isn't worth mentioning to begin with :)

8. bubblesitter Follow Befriend (5) 10 threads 2,329 comments

   85   11:28am Fri 11 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   iwog says The only possible doomsday scenario is an inflationary one. With pay cuts and no well paying jobs and no banks willing to overextend? You still think home prices will go up. May be you are right. Wealthy non-Americans will start coming through the Ellis islands to solve the grief of Americans.

9. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,579 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

   86   11:35am Fri 11 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   bubblesitter says With pay cuts and no well paying jobs and no banks willing to overextend? You still think home prices will go up. May be you are right. Wealthy non-Americans will start coming through the Ellis islands to solve the grief of Americans. How is it possible the stock market keeps going up with such a huge credit contraction? How are bonds and gold near all time highs? The amount of credit extended isn't important. What matters at the end of the day is how much money exists in a bank account ready to spend. The M2 is currently $1.5 trillion HIGHER than when the recession started. You can't have a credit-contraction caused crash UNLESS that credit contraction removes money from the system. Whatever the ultimate cause, the money is NOT being removed from the system. It is being added to the system, therefore prices go higher and not lower.

10. bubblesitter Follow Befriend (5) 10 threads 2,329 comments

    87   11:39am Fri 11 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   iwog says bubblesitter says With pay cuts and no well paying jobs and no banks willing to overextend? You still think home prices will go up. May be you are right. Wealthy non-Americans will start coming through the Ellis islands to solve the grief of Americans. How is it possible the stock market keeps going up with such a huge credit contraction? How are bonds and gold near all time highs? The amount of credit extended isn’t important. What matters at the end of the day is how much money exists in a bank account ready to spend. The M2 is currently $1.5 trillion HIGHER than when the recession started. You can’t have a credit-contraction caused crash UNLESS that credit contraction removes money from the system. Whatever the ultimate cause, the money is NOT being removed from the system. It is being added to the system, therefore prices go higher and not lower. May be banks are investing cash in stock markets,gold and bonds. Another bad sign for housing. :)

11. ch_tah Follow Befriend 3 threads 391 comments

    88   11:42am Fri 11 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   joshuatrio says ch_tah says I’m not sure what your point is. I understand these are all opinions and predictions. I said the chances of your idea (20% down requirement) is pretty much 0% for the foreseeable future. If you want to live in fantasy land of unrealistic “ifs” that’s your prerogative. I’d rather focus on what might realistically happen. I agree that requirement a larger down payment would be a good idea. It should have been the requirement all along. That doesn’t mean it’s going to happen again. I will treat this, future and past comments posted by you as irrelevant and useless. If you disagree with myself or others users on this board, no matter how radical ones “opinion” might be, consider yourself out-of-line and borderline criminal. Going forward, please stop posting your opinion as most of what you state isn’t worth mentioning to begin with That's fine. I do find it interesting that because I don't agree with your opinion, you view my posts as irrelevant and useless. You seem to be very hypocritical. As for not posting, I'll post what I like; if you choose to ignore it, that's ok.

12. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,579 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    89   11:52am Fri 11 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Protected   bubblesitter says May be banks are investing cash in stock markets,gold and bonds. Another bad sign for housing. So you think the $1.5 trillion increase in money supply since 2008 is simply money going to the banks? That's a very odd assertion, especially considering the real estate bear market premise is that banks are black holes of contracting credit and insolvency. How do you reconcile the two?

13. bubblesitter Follow Befriend (5) 10 threads 2,329 comments

    90   12:32pm Fri 11 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   iwog says bubblesitter says May be banks are investing cash in stock markets,gold and bonds. Another bad sign for housing. So you think the $1.5 trillion increase in money supply since 2008 is simply money going to the banks? That’s a very odd assertion, especially considering the real estate bear market premise is that banks are black holes of contracting credit and insolvency. How do you reconcile the two? Then tell me how is stock market,gold,bonds being high help the housing market?

14. pkowen Follow Befriend 30 threads 555 comments San Carlos, CA

    91   12:44pm Fri 11 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Yes, yes, I'm sure all that capital will push all these foreclosures up to higher prices than 2009. http://www.mercurynews.com/ci_17342795?source=patrick.net&source=most_viewed

15. joshuatrio Follow Befriend 41 threads 704 comments Monterey, CA

    92   1:19pm Fri 11 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   ch_tah says joshuatrio says ch_tah says I’m not sure what your point is. I understand these are all opinions and predictions. I said the chances of your idea (20% down requirement) is pretty much 0% for the foreseeable future. If you want to live in fantasy land of unrealistic “ifs” that’s your prerogative. I’d rather focus on what might realistically happen. I agree that requirement a larger down payment would be a good idea. It should have been the requirement all along. That doesn’t mean it’s going to happen again. I will treat this, future and past comments posted by you as irrelevant and useless. If you disagree with myself or others users on this board, no matter how radical ones “opinion” might be, consider yourself out-of-line and borderline criminal. Going forward, please stop posting your opinion as most of what you state isn’t worth mentioning to begin with That’s fine. I do find it interesting that because I don’t agree with your opinion, you view my posts as irrelevant and useless. You seem to be very hypocritical. As for not posting, I’ll post what I like; if you choose to ignore it, that’s ok. LOL !! Classic example of the pot calling the kettle _____. Funny how I dismiss your comments as irrelevant and now I'm the hypocrite. I rest my case. You wouldn't know sarcasm if it slapped you on the face.

16. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,579 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    93   1:25pm Fri 11 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   bubblesitter says Then tell me how is stock market,gold,bonds being high help the housing market? It doesn't, it's simply a total contradiction of the credit-bubble-deflation-causes-housing-to-crash theory. Real estate is just another investment class. When I first joined the board, the dogma was almost perfect. Scripture said: 1. The massive credit market will collapse causing deflation. 2. Gold will crash 3. The stock market will crash 4. Real Estate will crash 5. We are Japan Reality didn't follow the script. 1. Other than a very brief period during the collapse of the oil market, deflation never happened. 2. Gold is near record highs 3. The stock market crashed but then quickly recovered 100% of it's pre-crash value. 4. Real Estate crashed then turned sideways in early 2009. The jury is still out. 5. We are not Japan and nearly all the numbers are starting to diverge. We are now in year FIVE of the bear market in real estate. By any measure, this bear market is beginning to get awfully long in the tooth. Credit jail lasts 2-4 years for bankruptcy and 5 years for foreclosure. Meanwhile pent up demand keeps building while housing starts are still face down dead in a ditch.

17. ¥ Follow Befriend 35 threads 5,700 comments Bellingham, WA

    94   2:19pm Fri 11 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)   ch_tah says I said the chances of your idea (20% down requirement) is pretty much 0% for the foreseeable future. You're entirely right about this, of course, since 30% is much more likely: http://wisecatrealtors.posterous.com/wells-fargo-now-asking-for-30-down-on-mortgag iwog says How is it possible the stock market keeps going up with such a huge credit contraction? Capital is fungible. It can be loaned to someone else and turned into an asset on the balance sheet. Or it can be invested in equity in corporations, or used to buy physical assets like land and PM. I don't pretent to understand what's going on here but I do think the really rich are happy as pigs in shit right now with more money flowing to them than they know what to do with.

18. ¥ Follow Befriend 35 threads 5,700 comments Bellingham, WA

    95   2:23pm Fri 11 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   iwog says By any measure, this bear market is beginning to get awfully long in the tooth. Credit jail lasts 2-4 years for bankruptcy and 5 years for foreclosure. Meanwhile pent up demand keeps building while housing starts are still face down dead in a ditch. People gonna need a J-O-B to buy. Also, it would help if money was flowing into the mortgage sector, not out of it.

19. pkowen Follow Befriend 30 threads 555 comments San Carlos, CA

    96   2:49pm Fri 11 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   iwog says bubblesitter says Then tell me how is stock market,gold,bonds being high help the housing market? It doesn’t, it’s simply a total contradiction of the credit-bubble-deflation-causes-housing-to-crash theory. Real estate is just another investment class. When I first joined the board, the dogma was almost perfect. Scripture said: 1. The massive credit market will collapse causing deflation. 2. Gold will crash 3. The stock market will crash 4. Real Estate will crash 5. We are Japan Reality didn’t follow the script. 1. Other than a very brief period during the collapse of the oil market, deflation never happened. 2. Gold is near record highs 3. The stock market crashed but then quickly recovered 100% of it’s pre-crash value. 4. Real Estate crashed then turned sideways in early 2009. The jury is still out. 5. We are not Japan and nearly all the numbers are starting to diverge. [..] I'll acknowledge that after a very significant drop, housing is going mostly sideways - but more, I think, on a downward trend. I don't think you are characterizing the 'dogma' of partick.net accurately. There were a lot of views, but primarily from what I saw (I think you and joined at a similar time) it was mainly that housing, especially in the bay area, was way out of whack with fundamentals. People were getting loans with NO skin in the game and WAY beyond anything they could ever pay without a huge appreciation and subsequent flip. I.e. a gamble and a game. This was the dogma of the market that I heard everywhere in the bay area, co-workers, acquaintances - and they literally had a plan which was buy ANYTHING, get quick appreciation, sell for profit, buy again, and work your way into something you could actually pay for. THIS WAS the conventional wisdom. Patrick.net was the antidote to THAT, everything else you mention was periphery. This CW is what drove up prices, and more or less CREATED the bubble. All these other subjects were tagged on. Gold was a whole other thread. I never once even thought about it until I saw you and others posting about gold. No connection to housing for me. I also don't think it's accurate to say, "Real estate is just another investment class". Perhaps in some limited ways (commercial?), but by and large single family real estate specifically is very different from stocks, bonds, commodities, etc. It is a place to live and perhaps ultimately die, not 'just an investment'. People invest time and sweat into houses because they plan to live in them, not because they plan to profit from them (except with the advent of the bubble and 'flip this house' mania). Yes, to many a house is a hope of security and equity down the road - but it isn't the main motivator EXCEPT in this goofball bay area housing market and that has already proven to be a lie. Finally, as someone with a geography and natural resources background, I actually understand that most all wealth actually comes from the land. This is not say SFRs but rather arable land, clean water, minerals, etc. So while I recognize the value of land, I actually find the valuation of SFR and even MFR in many areas a mania and not tied to actual real measurable value. Or to quote apocalypsef*#k, "Plant potatoes".

20. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,579 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    97   3:04pm Fri 11 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Protected   I think you're missing my main point. I wasn't trying to argue "real estate bears are wrong, don't listen to them!" I'm saying that the primary reason for an extended Japan-style decade long bear market in housing has FAILED when applied to everything else. Here's a typical chart from a typical WE ARE JAPAN crash blog written in 2008: Back in 2008, a deflationary credit-collapse driven depression was a very valid theory. In 2011, it's no longer a valid theory because NONE of the nightmare scenarios took place. I think all of it must be re-evaluated in light of what's actually happened.

21. ¥ Follow Befriend 35 threads 5,700 comments Bellingham, WA

    98   3:05pm Fri 11 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   iwog says I’m saying that the primary reason for an extended Japan-style decade long bear market in housing has FAILED when applied to everything else. The "decade long bear market" failed when looking at the 1930s too . . . I'm sure if we get WW3 going later this decade we'll be OK eventually.

22. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,579 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    99   3:09pm Fri 11 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Protected   Troy says iwog says I’m saying that the primary reason for an extended Japan-style decade long bear market in housing has FAILED when applied to everything else. The “decade long bear market” failed when looking at the 1930s too . . . I’m sure if we get WW3 going later this decade we’ll be OK eventually. It's a simple matter of putting money back into the hands of consumers. Rent/mortgage-free living is going to do wonders.

23. ¥ Follow Befriend 35 threads 5,700 comments Bellingham, WA

    100   3:11pm Fri 11 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   iwog says Here’s a typical chart from a typical WE ARE JAPAN crash blog written in 2008: Since SPX hit 666 that EW work looks damn pretty good actually. There was in fact a wave 4 of 5 that retraced from 800 to 900 before the last death ride down. Of course, the sheer intervention that was done 2009-2010 has saved the system, so the prior realities are no longer current. This is not to say the current realities are all that hot though.

24. ¥ Follow Befriend 35 threads 5,700 comments Bellingham, WA

    101   3:13pm Fri 11 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   iwog says Rent/mortgage-free living is going to do wonders. ? I don't know whether to LOL or just close this pane. Guess I'll do both.

25. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,579 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    102   3:14pm Fri 11 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (2)   Protected   Troy says Since SPX hit 666 that EW work looks damn pretty good actually. There was in fact a wave 4 of 5 that retraced from 800 to 900 before the last death ride down. I think the March 2009 bottom was caused by fear of imminent bank collapse, not lack of capital. Either way we're back over 1300 and our chart no longer resembles the Nikkei.

26. ch_tah Follow Befriend 3 threads 391 comments

    103   4:28pm Fri 11 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Troy says ch_tah says I said the chances of your idea (20% down requirement) is pretty much 0% for the foreseeable future. You’re entirely right about this, of course, since 30% is much more likely: http://wisecatrealtors.posterous.com/wells-fargo-now-asking-for-30-down-on-mortgag I'm sure you read the entire article and saw this: "If the 30 percent requirement does stand, some in the mortgage industry say it will drive more of the lending business from the private sector to the government. The Federal Housing Administration is exempt from the risk retention rules and offers loans with downpayments as low as 3.5 percent."

27. ¥ Follow Befriend 35 threads 5,700 comments Bellingham, WA

    104   4:46pm Fri 11 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   ch_tah says The Federal Housing Administration is exempt from the risk retention rules and offers loans with downpayments as low as 3.5 percent.” AFAICT they also want to change FHA back into a low-income thing -- like it was 10 years ago -- but with higher down payments (10%) too. The FHA limit was $240,000 in my area when I was in the market in 2001-2002.

28. ThreeBays Follow Befriend (1) 2 threads 53 comments San Mateo, CA

    105   11:57pm Sun 13 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   New signs of weakness lead to a conclusion that we're closer to a bottom... "Every hour that passes we are one hour closer to a bottom" said chief economist of the bleeding obvious.

29. TechGromit Follow Befriend (6) 85 threads 969 comments 44 male Egg Harbor City, NJ

    106   12:56pm Tue 15 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   iwog says Home values fall every winter. Even if 2009 doesn’t turn out to be the absolute bottom, the market is going to remain flat. The crash is over. I would have to agree for most areas, a few will continue to fall for a little longer. Las Vegas is still a poster child for more price reductions.

30. LAO Follow Befriend 78 threads 405 comments

    107   1:54pm Tue 15 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   iwog says It’s a simple matter of putting money back into the hands of consumers. Rent/mortgage-free living is going to do wonders. We shall see if banks decide to give strategic defaulters loans again.... What's to stop banks and credit agencies from extending the WAIT period on strategic defaulters.. It's pretty easy to look at someones credit history/score and see plain as day that they screwed a BANK in the past.. aka.. great credit everywhere except the default. Those living rent free may find the 4-5 year wait period may be extended for them to 10+ years wait before they can get another loan. Sure they could pay in cash... But any bank that would give a strategic defaulter another loan with a reasonable interest rate under 10% is not a bank I'd want to be invested in.

31. LAO Follow Befriend 78 threads 405 comments

    108   9:56pm Tue 15 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   iwog says What I do know for sure is that I’m extremely satisfied with my position. My equity paydown is 1.3% per year and rising. Everything is cash flow positive. There’s no question in my mind whatsoever that I made the right choice buying in 2008, 2009, and early 2010. I think anyone wishing to buy a house made a mistake not shopping in 2009 and 2010. As interest rates continue to rise, that may end up being a very large mistake indeed. Dont u pay like $ 150-200 a month in PMI insurance? Thats wasting $1k-2k a year until u have 20% down, which can take 10 years with front loaded interest or be $20k in payments!! That is most peoples down payment money... We are waiting to buy until we have 20% down on a 400k mortgage... That is NOT a mistake... We will make out better than u even if it takes a few more years to save that 20% down... We also get to write off more deductions as interest rates rise. Also, so far homes we are looking at in our local areas are still dropping..

32. B.A.C.A.H. Follow Befriend (6) 5 threads 2,359 comments

    109   10:09pm Tue 15 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Los Angeles Renter says We shall see if banks decide to give strategic defaulters loans again…. What’s to stop banks and credit agencies from extending the WAIT period on strategic defaulters.. The banks need borrowers to keep up their gig. I don't think there's enough rich guys like iwog to keep it going unless the banking downsizes a whole bunch, and they probably aren't ready to do that. So, I'd be open minded that strategic default will have the same stigma as having experimented with something illegal in college like Bill Clinton did, or driving 3 to 5 mph over the speed limit. Go for it! Default ! (if it's a nonrecourse mortgage, of course).

33. LAO Follow Befriend 78 threads 405 comments

    110   10:42pm Tue 15 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   sybrib says The banks need borrowers to keep up their gig. I don’t think there’s enough rich guys like iwog to keep it going unless the banking downsizes a whole bunch, and they probably aren’t ready to do that. So, I’d be open minded that strategic default will have the same stigma as having experimented with something illegal in college like Bill Clinton did, or driving 3 to 5 mph over the speed limit. Go for it! Default ! (if it’s a nonrecourse mortgage, of course). Sure, but do u really think they will get a prime interest rate?

34. B.A.C.A.H. Follow Befriend (6) 5 threads 2,359 comments

    111   10:45pm Tue 15 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Remember, they're making their money from the loan processing "fees", not the interest, because they don't keep the loans.

35. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,579 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    112   12:02am Wed 16 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Protected   Los Angeles Renter says Dont u pay like $ 150-200 a month in PMI insurance? Thats wasting $1k-2k a year until u have 20% down, which can take 10 years with front loaded interest or be $20k in payments!! That is most peoples down payment money… We are waiting to buy until we have 20% down on a 400k mortgage… That is NOT a mistake… We will make out better than u even if it takes a few more years to save that 20% down… We also get to write off more deductions as interest rates rise. Also, so far homes we are looking at in our local areas are still dropping.. I don't pay any PMI insurance. I don't have any loans under 75% loan to value, and the remaining 25% is leveraged against other assets. I don't think it's a mistake to wait until you have 20% down to buy a house in general, but the conditions for buying real estate in 2009 and 2010 are probably not going to be repeated in the near future. PMI sucks, but it's going to seem like chicken feed if you're locked in a 30 year mortgage for 1% higher than you could have gotten. Besides, PMI will eventually come off the loan as you pay it down and/or the market recovers.

36. Cvoc13 Follow Befriend (9) 6 threads 194 comments Dublin, CA Cvoc13's website

    113   12:31am Wed 16 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   iwog says pkowen says My point is, “Home values fell in the Bay Area and around the nation in the fourth quarter…” The bottom was not 2009. Home values fall every winter. Even if 2009 doesn’t turn out to be the absolute bottom, the market is going to remain flat. The crash is over. Depends on what you consider crash... I say in the 4-5 years in the east bay Ca. and for the most part all of Ca. that we will see another 40-50% so if that is not a crash due to time line, then so be it, then the crash is over, If on the other hand price changes of over 20% count as a crash then I guess we still testing Crash Dummies ! Lol

37. Ohdarn Follow Befriend 1 comments

    114   2:10am Wed 16 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   And now we're right back to that very bottom of 2009 in southern California: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-15/southern-california-home-prices-decline-to-their-lowest-level-in-18-months.html?source=patrick.net#related_categories_tags_top It's just investors chasing yesterday's news that caused a tiny little temporary blip up, that's all.

38. BuyerBeware Follow Befriend 1 threads 5 comments

    115   6:02am Wed 16 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   The realtors are back to their old tricks of telling people the water is fine, jump on in.

39. EightBall Follow Befriend 12 threads 495 comments

    116   6:02am Wed 16 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Los Angeles Renter says We shall see if banks decide to give strategic defaulters loans again…. What’s to stop banks and credit agencies from extending the WAIT period on strategic defaulters.. It’s pretty easy to look at someones credit history/score and see plain as day that they screwed a BANK in the past.. aka.. great credit everywhere except the default. Those living rent free may find the 4-5 year wait period may be extended for them to 10+ years wait before they can get another loan. Sure they could pay in cash… But any bank that would give a strategic defaulter another loan with a reasonable interest rate under 10% is not a bank I’d want to be invested in. It only takes one or two banks scarfing up the business of the former SD's for the rest of them to fall in line. Why were they defaulting on these loans anyway? Most likely (or highly likely) they were upside down. If they put money down on a house that isn't likely to go upside down then they (the punitive banks) are just passing the business to their competitors. The same thing happened with the crazy loans this past decade. Stupidity is infectious. The only backstop to this is some sort of regulation but look at FHA now - they are still handing out low down payment loans. I am guessing someone would cry foul if the government mandated a "do as I say not as I do" policy. While you might see the government entities implement some sort of policy against these people, other banks will probably not - even if you think they should. So the answer to your question regarding what is to stop them from implementing a penalty for a strategic defaulter is: MO MONEY!

40. LAO Follow Befriend 78 threads 405 comments

    117   3:08pm Wed 16 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   iwog says I don’t pay any PMI insurance. I don’t have any loans under 75% loan to value, and the remaining 25% is leveraged against other assets. I don’t think it’s a mistake to wait until you have 20% down to buy a house in general, but the conditions for buying real estate in 2009 and 2010 are probably not going to be repeated in the near future. PMI sucks, but it’s going to seem like chicken feed if you’re locked in a 30 year mortgage for 1% higher than you could have gotten. Besides, PMI will eventually come off the loan as you pay it down and/or the market recovers. I'll be honest IWOG, I'm not sure what you mean by you have "the other 25% leveraged against other assets". I remember in the past you said you financed all your investment/rental properties 100%.. When I hear financing 100%.. I think you don't have any liquid asset to back it up? So that would lead me to believe the bank/govt. would want PMI insurance payments. Where is that 25% leverage coming from? Is it similar to a poker player throwing his "gold watch" on the table saying "I'm good for it"... leverage equals collateral? Anyway, I'm just a potential "first time home buyer"... keeping my eye on interest rates and homes in my local market... So far I haven't regretted or missed out on any bargain homes. I have missed out on the lowest of low interest rates.. But then again.. when interest rates were that low it was a crappy time of the year to be home shopping. The inventory was pretty crappy selection wise. i'm seeing a much better selection of homes in 2011 coming to the market... I've been rewarded in waiting, because instead of say 5 homes to choose from in the district I'm looking to buy.... I'm now seeing 10-20 homes to choose from all at similar price points. Since I'm choosing a home as a place to live and raise a family... The importance of choosing the "right home"is much more complicated than if i were shopping for a rental unit.

« First     « Previous comments     Next comments »     Last »