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but but but I thought the bottom was 2009 ?

By pkowen   Follow   Wed, 9 Feb 2011, 12:47pm   13,824 views   157 comments
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Home prices to hit bottom this year, report says

Read more: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2011/02/08/BUC81HK33N.DTL#ixzz1DUrCcUzJ

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1. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 273 threads 12,491 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

   118   5:20pm Wed 16 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   SLos Angeles Renter says I’ll be honest IWOG, I’m not sure what you mean by you have “the other 25% leveraged against other assets”. I remember in the past you said you financed all your investment/rental properties 100%.. When I hear financing 100%.. I think you don’t have any liquid asset to back it up? So that would lead me to believe the bank/govt. would want PMI insurance payments. Where is that 25% leverage coming from? Is it similar to a poker player throwing his “gold watch” on the table saying “I’m good for it”… leverage equals collateral? SF ace is correct. I have 4 mortgages at 75/25% (maximum allowed for investment units) and some private money backed by equity on my office building. I also have a mortgage on my personal residence for the maximum conforming amount ($600,000) @ 4.25%. The creative bookkeeping is mostly using my paid for house as collateral for the down payments on my rental properties. I suppose you might say that I'm not technically 100% financed since no single property is more than 75% encumbered, however I went from zero debt & zero investment properties to lots of investment properties and 100% of the value of those homes in debt. If I could borrow another $5 million at 5% interest and spend it on real estate, I'd sign the paperwork today. There's almost no downside and there are opportunities for positive income flow everywhere.

2. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,778 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

   119   5:41pm Wed 16 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   I usually love arguing with IWOG on here, but I am actually trying to figure out how to leverage up my investments too. I just purchased 3 condos for average prices of $40K including rehab (but I suppose discounting some backbreaking long days of work by me) and rented them for $800 each. However, the long term income potential to me seems better to move a bit up to homes from 80 to 100K, and get loans. Then I can stretch my remaining 350K to way over a million dollars in new investments, and let future inflation if and when it shows up, kill the loans off.

3. MarkInSF Follow Befriend 14 threads 1,118 comments

   120   12:02am Thu 17 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)   SF ace says LA renter, if you understand how REIT’s work, they will borrow as much as possible at 5% if they invest in assets that generate FCF. In this case, more debt creates even more cash flow which flows into more assets. People who knows how to handle money have no fear taking on debts at these rates, it’s actually an opporutunity. Not sure I follow. Isn't the proper way to look at an investment it's actual income, including amortized expenses? Who cares about cash flow? I can do reverse mortgage on my home and that's cash flow, but doesn't mean I'm generating income. I've seen Iwog estimation of expenses, and it essentially ignores repairs and maintenance, vacancies, potential legal fees, not to mention his own labor. It seems to me it makes no sense to use financial leverage at 5%, if the property is only returning 4% cap rate after a proper accounting of expenses. Not unless you're gambling on inflation. On the other hand, I look at the numbers robertoaribas puts up and it makes me wonder if I shouldn't make a trip out there.

4. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 273 threads 12,491 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

   121   12:30am Thu 17 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected   I've actually posted expenses to excruciating detail. Here's a repost and a link from Sept. 2010. I've also talked in great detail about what insurance covers and what it doesn't cover, but I can't find the link at the moment. I don't worry about legal fees, I'm married to a lawyer but almost any potential problem can be handled in small claims court. No one ever said being a landlord didn't involve work. http://patrick.net/forum/?p=528285 - A 50-year roof costs $10,000. (not $17,000, I actually got an estimate yesterday) That works out to $16.67 per month. - A 15-year water heater costs $1000. Monthly that budgets to $5.56 - Washer/dryer $500 each and should last 10 years. $8 (both) - I’d be surprised if termites turn up more often than once every 20 years. Inspections are free. Eradication and prevention $5000-10,000. However a termite insurance contract that guarantees our house is termite free forever costs $18.75 per month. - If the car I use to inspect my properties breaks down???? Now we’re REALLY reaching. @ .35 per mile and one trip every month (all my homes are on the same block) that works about to be about $10 per month which includes repairs. - Special property tax assessment. I haven’t seen one yet. A $300 assessment would cost $25 per month. To protect myself from EVERYTHING YOU LISTED, I would have to budget $83.98 per month. I actually budget $125 to be safe. The extra money covers vacancy (none yet) and repairs that are more than the tenants deposit but less than my insurance deductible. To a person who owns a single rental property for the first few years it’s certainly possible to get strung out by bad luck and/or bad planning. For a person who owns many rental properties over a decade and has the cash to cover all contingencies, the amounts I listed are EXACTLY what it costs to be a landlord. Not a penny more.

5. MarkInSF Follow Befriend 14 threads 1,118 comments

   122   12:59am Fri 18 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   SF ace says Professionals measure a value of most business based on their discounted cash flow plus the value of discounted equity. Income statement is just supporting information to predict FCF and where equity is headed. That's more precise language. What I'm getting at is if you're not accounting for the decline in equity due to the deterioration and eventual repairs or replacements on your property, you're not getting a clear picture of the investment. If a individual investor owning a rental property is an equivalent business to a REIT, then Iwog is somehow able to pull off lower operating costs than a REIT, even without economies of scale. No, a roof, water heater, termites, washer/dryer, and a car to drive to your property is not an enumeration of "expenses to excruciating detail".

6. dunnross Follow Befriend 28 threads 1,489 comments San Jose, CA Premium

   123   4:06pm Mon 7 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Protected   So, explain again, which part of the "Bull Trap" concept do iwog, tatapu & nomograph do not understand????

7. tatupu70 Follow Befriend (3) 15 threads 5,616 comments

   124   4:28pm Mon 7 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Dunross-- Well, does the bull trap usually occur when the price is back at the mean? Like it is in most places in the US?

8. dunnross Follow Befriend 28 threads 1,489 comments San Jose, CA Premium

   125   4:34pm Mon 7 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Tatapu. I guess you haven't consulted with your buddy iwog, before you wrote that post. It depends where you start drawing the mean from. I draw it back from 1975, which is when this bubble really started, which means there is no place in the US where we are back below the mean, unless, maybe, Vegas or Detroit, and, even that is questionable. Anyway, I can see that we can negotiate the "mean", but "Bull Trap" is non-negotiable. It occurs every time.

9. tatupu70 Follow Befriend (3) 15 threads 5,616 comments

   126   4:36pm Mon 7 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   dunnross says Tatapu. I guess you haven’t consulted with your buddy iwog, before you wrote that post. It depends where you start drawing the mean from. I draw it back from 1975, which is when this bubble really started, which means there is no place in the US where we are back below the mean, unless, maybe, Vegas or Detroit, and, even that is questionable. Anyway, I can see that we can negotiate the “mean”, but “Bull Trap” is non-negotiable. It occurs every time. Oh come on--the bubble really started in 1876. Draw the line back that far and you'll see that the bubble ended in 2009.

10. dunnross Follow Befriend 28 threads 1,489 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    127   4:40pm Mon 7 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Protected   dunnross says So, explain again, which part of the “Bull Trap” concept do iwog, tatapu & nomograph do not understand???? Also, I don't see any signs of "Dispair" from any of the bulls on this blog, or any of the bulls that I know in real life. When we reach "True Dispair", all the Iwogs/Tatapus/Nomographs of the world will not be foaming at their mouths trying to argue with us, bears, about whether we hit the bottom in 2009 or not.

11. dunnross Follow Befriend 28 threads 1,489 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    128   4:43pm Mon 7 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Protected   tatupu70 says dunnross says Tatapu. I guess you haven’t consulted with your buddy iwog, before you wrote that post. It depends where you start drawing the mean from. I draw it back from 1975, which is when this bubble really started, which means there is no place in the US where we are back below the mean, unless, maybe, Vegas or Detroit, and, even that is questionable. Anyway, I can see that we can negotiate the “mean”, but “Bull Trap” is non-negotiable. It occurs every time. Oh come on–the bubble really started in 1876. Draw the line back that far and you’ll see that the bubble ended in 2009. I chose 1975, because 1975 is when this whole idea of "Ownership Society" has started. This is when a lot of current gov-t housing subsidies started, and this is when a lot of people started to think that "housing" was actually an investment.

12. dunnross Follow Befriend 28 threads 1,489 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    129   4:53pm Mon 7 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Now, I invite you or anyone else to look at the two graphs side by side, and tell me when this bubble started:

13. 709hannah Follow Befriend 1 threads 36 comments

    130   5:00pm Mon 7 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   real estate prices will bottom when those prices reflect a realistic expectation that the loan will be repaid....as long as the gov and the federal reserve are propping up the markets, prices will continue to decline and can not bottom. tax payers bailing out bad loans is not a viable business model.........

14. dunnross Follow Befriend 28 threads 1,489 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    131   5:09pm Mon 7 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   709hannah says real estate prices will bottom when those prices reflect a realistic expectation that the loan will be repaid….as long as the gov and the federal reserve are propping up the markets, prices will continue to decline and can not bottom. tax payers bailing out bad loans is not a viable business model……… Let me correct that, just a little. The gov-t is "trying" to prop up the market. Where on the FHFA graph do you see any gov-t manipulation actually working. The FED is throwing in everything but the kitchen sink, and all we get is a little blip in San Jose area, and, even a smaller one in Oakland. Well this dead-cat bounce is hardly the "Bull Trap", even iwog can be proud of!!!

15. 709hannah Follow Befriend 1 threads 36 comments

    132   5:21pm Mon 7 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   the gov is actually propping up the market. i didnt say it was maintaining a certain level. if we didnt have ZIRP and massive freebies to the banks (ala POMO's) the market would be at ZERO.....!.... there would be no real estate market because the financial system would be locked up! in this case 'propping' means stopping the free fall.....!

16. dunnross Follow Befriend 28 threads 1,489 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    133   5:30pm Mon 7 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   709hannah says the gov is actually propping up the market. i didnt say it was maintaining a certain level. if we didnt have ZIRP and massive freebies to the banks (ala POMO’s) the market would be at ZERO…..!…. there would be no real estate market because the financial system would be locked up! in this case ‘propping’ means stopping the free fall…..! Well, I would still argue that, even in that case, both, the all-cash and the "priced-out-of-the-market-back-in-the-bubble-heydays" crowds would still come in for a "Bull Trap" experiment. You see, the purpose of the bubble is to suck in as many suckers as possible, both, on its way up, and on its way down. If the market went straight to 0 from the top, nobody would be suckered in on the way down, and it wouldn't be so much fun, now would it?

17. 709hannah Follow Befriend 1 threads 36 comments

    134   5:37pm Mon 7 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   by bull trap do you mean in the RE industry...i.e. R.E. buyers coming in and buying thinking it is a bottom...? i agree....i know at leat 10 people that have just bought a home.....some are already underwater numerically. 2 couples had to sell the new house and move (for job related reasons) and one lost a but load of money and the other still hasnt found a buyer and their listing price is less than their mortgage...sucks! the old 'i dont care about price' and ' R.E. wil not go down in my area' really trashed these people....but when the wife says she wants a house..well...you buy.

18. dunnross Follow Befriend 28 threads 1,489 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    135   5:46pm Mon 7 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   709hannah says by bull trap do you mean in the RE industry…i.e. R.E. buyers coming in and buying thinking it is a bottom…? i agree….i know at leat 10 people that have just bought a home…..some are already underwater numerically. 2 couples had to sell the new house and move (for job related reasons) and one lost a but load of money and the other still hasnt found a buyer and their listing price is less than their mortgage…sucks! the old ‘i dont care about price’ and ‘ R.E. wil not go down in my area’ really trashed these people….but when the wife says she wants a house..well…you buy. Yes, as you can see on the graph, it's the "Return to Normalcy" crowd thinking that the market has "Stabilized". It's the iwogs, tatapus & nomagraphs in the world, coming in to catch the falling knife. "Shadow Bubble" is another word for this "Bull Trap". It occurs because of the allure of self-made millionaires who made a bundle on the housing bubble is still fresh in people's minds, especially the ones who missed the heydays and are now thinking that this is their last chance to get it, before they are completely priced out.

19. E-man Follow Befriend (31) 34 threads 2,543 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    136   2:24pm Fri 11 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Protected   dunnross & 709hannah, You guys are absolutely correct. Home prices will not hit bottom until 2039. Renting is your best bet for the next 28 years :)

20. FortWayne Follow Befriend (13) 102 threads 3,762 comments

    137   5:35pm Fri 11 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Troy says ChrisLA says Government is actively restricting everyone from buying by artificially keeping the prices above what people can afford. I disagree with this. Affordability is orthogonal to what the government does and does not do. At the end of the day what it comes down to is “how-much-a-month”, plus the impetus of inflation creating a speculative premium that people are willing to pay. When Government intervenes to reduce the monthly expense for a given pricepoint, pricepoints just rise to compensate. Houses will always be on the edge of affordable, since they are sold on the bid. I think that is the problem, to an average person who does not consider long term it only comes down to "how much a month". Thats how cars are sold to the poor, houses follow. Not a very prudent way of shopping. So as soon as government provides 30 year loans prices go up to match 30 year mark. If max loan length was 3 years prices would drop accordingly. At least that's how I see it.

21. Nomograph Follow Befriend (1) 104 threads 2,851 comments

    138   10:31am Sat 12 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)   Mr.Fantastic says tatupu won’t be coming back to this site anymore. He was embarrassed and took off. His trolling and strawman arguments will disappear with him. It's cute how you try to get him to reply.

22. tatupu70 Follow Befriend (3) 15 threads 5,616 comments

    139   11:51am Sat 12 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Mr.Fantastic says No seriously, tatupu literally decided to take off. He sent me a long e-mail about how he hated me, and would have “people come after me” if he found out who I was. Now that's funny.

23. justme Follow Befriend (2) 33 threads 3,456 comments

    140   12:28pm Sat 12 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (2)   robertoaribas says IWOG: “though I said the bottom in 2009 would not be broken ever and argued in 1000’s of lines on here that I was right, I will now modify my position, and say that even if we do drop below it, it still doesn’t matter. Because that is what i do, I am a lying POS who will just change my premise when I’m proven wrong” +99, Iwog is a lying POS.

24. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 273 threads 12,491 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    141   2:45pm Sat 12 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike (1)   Protected   justme says +99, Iwog is a lying POS. I do believe this is a violation of the new TOS. I wouldn't mind if you actually had examples of me being a lying POS, but we both know you don't.

25. SubOink Follow Befriend (3) 9 threads 703 comments Los Angeles, CA

    142   4:29pm Sat 12 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)   iwog says - I’d be surprised if termites turn up more often than once every 20 years. Inspections are free. Eradication and prevention $5000-10,000. However a termite insurance contract that guarantees our house is termite free forever costs $18.75 per month. Not to change subject but I am interested in finding a termite insurance contract like you describe...any recommendations (CA, Los Angeles)?

26. dunnross Follow Befriend 28 threads 1,489 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    143   5:49pm Sat 12 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Protected   iwog says Troy says Since SPX hit 666 that EW work looks damn pretty good actually. There was in fact a wave 4 of 5 that retraced from 800 to 900 before the last death ride down. I think the March 2009 bottom was caused by fear of imminent bank collapse, not lack of capital. Either way we’re back over 1300 and our chart no longer resembles the Nikkei. BS Alert. Nikkei average tripled from 2003 to 2007, only to plunge back down before the 2003 low.

27. Nomograph Follow Befriend (1) 104 threads 2,851 comments

    144   5:50pm Sat 12 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)   Mr.Fantastic says No seriously, tatupu literally decided to take off It's absolutely precious how you try to get his attention. Just adorable.

28. dunnross Follow Befriend 28 threads 1,489 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    145   5:50pm Sat 12 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Protected   Here is the chart. The fact remains that our own S&P has actually underperformed the Nikkei so far, in this dead-cat market rally:

29. klarek Follow Befriend (7) 1 threads 1,217 comments

    146   5:55pm Sat 12 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   iwog says justme says +99, Iwog is a lying POS. I do believe this is a violation of the new TOS. Fortunately for you, lying is not a violation.

30. Nomograph Follow Befriend (1) 104 threads 2,851 comments

    147   9:31pm Sat 12 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Mr.Fantastic says I could give you the warm fuzzies. I'm flattered, but no thanks. I don't like you that way.

31. michaelsch Follow Befriend 21 threads 581 comments South Pasadena, CA

    148   4:27pm Tue 30 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   LOL, Patrick, funny spam. Russian hackers ad here. Have they registered or just hacked in?

32. pazuzu Follow Befriend 6 threads 198 comments

    149   4:52pm Tue 30 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   No no no, according to Shiller the bottom is now. LMAO Get ready for decades of decline. We are following the path of Japan except we don't have the savings and strong industrial exports to do as "well" as they have.

33. Call it Crazy Follow Befriend 228 threads 2,761 comments

    150   7:50pm Tue 30 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   pazuzu says No no no, according to Shiller the bottom is now. LMAO Yep, until next year, then that will be the bottom... and then the next year will be the bottom.... and so on.....

34. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,778 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    151   8:16pm Tue 30 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   pazuzu says No no no, according to Shiller the bottom is now. LMAO Get ready for decades of decline. We are following the path of Japan except we don't have the savings and strong industrial exports to do as "well" as they have. Call it Crazy says No no no, according to Shiller the bottom is now. LMAO Yep, until next year, then that will be the bottom... and then the next year will be the bottom.... and so on..... you do realize its been over 2 years or something since IWOG bought, and he's been routinely making rental income the whole time... No housing crash... Heck, I'm coming up on 2 years since my start to buying again in this crash, and my prices are all up over 50% on the earliest purchases.... Rent + tons of appreciation, that you guys really don't seem to understand!

35. E-man Follow Befriend (31) 34 threads 2,543 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    152   8:26pm Tue 30 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   LiarWatch says pazuzu says No no no, according to Shiller the bottom is now. LMAO Get ready for decades of decline. We are following the path of Japan except we don't have the savings and strong industrial exports to do as "well" as they have. They called bottom in 2007... prices fell. 2008... prices fell. 2009.... prices fell. 2010..... prices fell. 2011... prices fell. 2012... prices continue to fall. Anyone telling you any different is a liar. Hi Darrell, Which idiot called 2007 the bottom? You can run, but you can't hide Darrell. Are you still renting from Roberto, or did he evict you? :)

36. E-man Follow Befriend (31) 34 threads 2,543 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    153   8:32pm Tue 30 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   LiarWatch says Hiding? Running?I'm not a realtor here. That would be you..... hiding, running and screwing the public. Darrell, Actually, that was your ex-girlfriend. Not only did she screw the public, but she screwed you pretty bad before dumping you. Is that why you're so bitter?

37. errc Follow Befriend (7) 29 threads 1,204 comments 31 male Premium

    154   8:37pm Tue 30 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)   Protected   Why are all the specuvestors on this site so vile? If it was such a gravy train, they'd be silently smirking in the corner counting all their free money. Instead, they spend time here, patting themselves on the back, trying to put down others, pimping for the NAR, and (at least in my observations) whoring for the democrats. Id ask how you people sleep at night, but its obvious, not very well So sad. The worst will be these clowns will be crying foul when the market crumbles and they are crushed by their own leverage. It will be the evil GOPs fault and they will be demanding that the smart democrats throw the banks another trillion dollar bone to try and make them whole. Sucks for those of us that are forced to pay for this crap

38. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,778 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    155   8:41pm Tue 30 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   errc says Why are all the specuvestors on this site so vile? If it was such a gravy train, they'd be silently smirking in the corner counting all their free money. Instead, they spend time here, patting themselves on the back, trying to put down others, pimping for the NAR, and (at least in my observations) whoring for the democrats. Id ask how you people sleep at night, but its obvious, not very well So sad. The worst will be these clowns will be crying foul when the market crumbles and they are crushed by their own leverage. It will be the evil GOPs fault and they will be demanding that the smart democrats throw the banks another trillion dollar bone to try and make them whole. Sucks for those of us that are forced to pay for this crap errc: It must really be sad to live a life that bitter and pathetic! I'm sorry you totally screwed up your market timing, but being jealous and praying desperately for me to be wrong isn't a good use of your time. you could grow up, and quit being a whiney little biotch, but who am i kidding, that will never happen!

39. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,778 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    156   8:58pm Tue 30 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   LiarWatch says Exactly. If it were truly a profitable enterprise, you wouldn't hear a word from them. Clearly they are pimping junk and saying anything to do so. just as dumb with a new name! so everyone who post negative experiences is telling the truth, but anyone who posts positive experiences, must be lying! Nothing like biasing all of the information you receive to agree with your preconceived viewpoint! no wonder you both are always wrong on your decisions!! Not withstanding the fact, that I actually give verifiable information for everything I write, and you don't!

40. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,778 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    157   9:11pm Tue 30 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   LiarWatch says Falling housing prices to dramatically lower levels is bullish optimism and always has been. actually, it would be for me. Given the dynamics of real estate, it would take a couple years to turn Phoenix around, and go back down to new lows... plenty of time for me to rake in the rental income, save my salary, and then, buy a few more homes to rent out...

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