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foreclosures up 40% in the bay areaa

By robertoaribas   Follow   Thu, 10 Feb 2011, 8:49pm   6,083 views   98 comments
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write on que, we see that foreclosure filings are once again rising in the bay area, right here on patrick news...
So lets see:
1. continued price declines ala case shiller.
2. Foreclosure filings climbing.
3. Interest rates climbing
4. Fannie and Freddie reorganization overdue, and simply put, any change that helps them lose less money means less lending available for marginal buyers, less demand and another kick to an ailing demand side of the market.

Shortly the usual suspects will be along to explain that these facts don't matter, but lets save them the trouble:
War is Peace, Slavery is Freedom, Ignorance is strength.. (they are very strong!!!)

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1. bubblesitter Follow Befriend (5) 10 threads 2,329 comments

   1   9:58pm Thu 10 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   but but but I thought the bottom was 2009 ?

2. terriDeaner Follow Befriend (7) 70 threads 1,151 comments

   2   10:34pm Thu 10 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   "Under the spreading chestnut tree I sold you and you sold me: There lie they, and here lie we Under the spreading chestnut tree."

3. antman Follow Befriend 1 comments

   3   3:57pm Fri 11 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   More specifically...."The number of Bay Area homeowners who entered the first stage of foreclosure in January spiked by almost 40 percent from a year ago as banks once again gear up the foreclosure machine after hitting the pause button." However...."In the Bay Area, 1,364 foreclosed homes were taken back by banks last month, a 21.5 percent increase from December, but a 12.1 percent decline from a year ago." This does not mean prices will decline another 40%... prices look to be slowly declining but possibly still close to the last bottom. We shall see what happens

4. ch_tah Follow Befriend 3 threads 391 comments

   4   4:17pm Fri 11 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   It's a shame the article provides no information about Santa Clara County and lumps San Mateo County in with Alameda and Contra Costa.

5. ch_tah Follow Befriend 3 threads 391 comments

   5   4:53pm Fri 11 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Maybe this is why they left off specifics: http://www.realtytrac.com/trendcenter/ca/santa+clara+county-trend.html http://www.realtytrac.com/trendcenter/ca/san+mateo+county-trend.html Houses in foreclosure: Cupertino: 1 in 3500 Sunnyvale: 1 in 900 Saratoga: 1 in 900 MV: 1 in 1200 Los Altos: 1 in 2700 PA: 1 in 750

6. PockyClipsNow Follow Befriend 19 threads 1,534 comments Los Angeles, CA

   6   4:56pm Fri 11 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Yes F&F are going to make less loans. I think we all know that means FHA will make exactly that many more loans.....and FHA is the subprime lender with weaker standards.

7. pkowen Follow Befriend 30 threads 555 comments San Carlos, CA

   7   5:00pm Fri 11 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   bubblesitter says but but but I thought the bottom was 2009 ? Hey that's my line!

8. Katy Perry Follow Befriend 8 threads 530 comments Murrieta, CA

   8   6:01pm Fri 11 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   yep that would line up with my SF /Bay area friends finally starting to verbally poop themselves this month.

9. thomas.wong1986 Follow Befriend 16 threads 4,426 comments

   9   7:34pm Fri 11 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   antman says However….”In the Bay Area, 1,364 foreclosed homes were taken back by banks last month, a 21.5 percent increase from December, but a 12.1 percent decline from a year ago.” This does not mean prices will decline another 40%… prices look to be slowly declining but possibly still close to the last bottom. We shall see what happens Wonder how many were bought not that long ago, after the first leg of the price declined happened ? Not the homes that were purchased back in 2002 to 2006

10. bubblesitter Follow Befriend (5) 10 threads 2,329 comments

    10   8:04pm Fri 11 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   pkowen says bubblesitter says but but but I thought the bottom was 2009 ? Hey that’s my line! That's right. I liked it so I posted it.

11. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 272 threads 12,462 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    11   8:13pm Fri 11 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   robertoaribas says 1. continued price declines ala case shiller. "Continued price declines" ala case Shiller is actually a flat line from early 2009 trending upward. Y'all need to brush up a bit on your chart reading skills. Continuing to post easily disproven propaganda doesn't serve anyone. By the way, this chart is current and published 2 weeks ago.

12. CrazyMan Follow Befriend 448 comments Campbell, CA

    12   10:24am Sat 12 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   iwog says By the way, this chart is current and published 2 weeks ago. and is obviously trending down =/

13. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 272 threads 12,462 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    13   11:38am Sat 12 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   CrazyMan says iwog says By the way, this chart is current and published 2 weeks ago. and is obviously trending down =/ Yes, in winter like it always does. However for someone to characterize this graph as "continued price declines" is totally dishonest. I'm sure robert would rather kill himself than to say at any point on this graph that there are/were "continued price increases".

14. thomas.wong1986 Follow Befriend 16 threads 4,426 comments

    14   11:46am Sat 12 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   iwog says characterize this graph as “continued price declines” is totally dishonest. We (the Bay Area) were already deep in a housing bubble by year 2000. Prices doubled from 1998 to 2000. Even today you still have people with some common sense state prices are unaffordable based on incomes alone. All the hype is slowly evaporating.

15. thomas.wong1986 Follow Befriend 16 threads 4,426 comments

    15   11:48am Sat 12 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   We still have a long way to go... looking ONLY at post 2000 graph doesnt disclose the entire situation in the housing market. If we do go flat from here, it would be the first time prices and incomes become permanently disconnected. That is not sustainable in the long run.

16. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 272 threads 12,462 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    16   12:50pm Sat 12 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   thomas.wong1986 says We (the Bay Area) were already deep in a housing bubble by year 2000. Prices doubled from 1998 to 2000. Even today you still have people with some common sense state prices are unaffordable based on incomes alone. All the hype is slowly evaporating. You can predict anything you want. You'll either be right or wrong. The problem is when people like Robert believe that facts don't matter and post accordingly. Do you know when the BEST time to buy a house was in the Bay Area? April 2009. That might change or it might not change, but as of TODAY people who waited to buy made two mistakes: They missed the bottom and they missed 4% interest rates. I'm constantly amazed how arrogant some of you are about predicted future declines when the market as been kicking the crap out of your predictions for nearly two years now. Unless the Bay Area real estate market has SIGNIFICANT declines combined with a full 1% decline in interest rates, we will NOT match the first quarter 2009 buying opportunity. I actually bought two Bay Area homes in early 2009. Did you?

17. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 272 threads 12,462 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    17   12:55pm Sat 12 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   thomas.wong1986 says Prices doubled from 1998 to 2000. Your own chart doesn't even say this. Your assertion is utterly absurd.

18. ¥ Follow Befriend 35 threads 5,700 comments Bellingham, WA

    18   1:03pm Sat 12 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   iwog says I’m constantly amazed how arrogant some of you are about predicted future declines when the market has been kicking the crap out of your predictions for nearly two years now. I don't know what "the market" refers to but the markets I am interested in are still declining.

19. simchaland Follow Befriend (6) 10 threads 1,234 comments Oakland, CA

    19   1:20pm Sat 12 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Troy, how dare you inject foreign data into this thread? You can't possibly know what is really going on here. See, the Bay Area is the most special place ever. And the "fortress," aka the True Bay Area™, is the most specialest place ever anywhere on Earth. Prices never really go down here. Everyone wants to live here. If you claim you don't, you are just in denial. That means that demand is always highest here and prices go up forever. They aren't making any more land. Silicon Valley is the world's most innovative area in the world and never ever has any decline in economic activity so everyone there makes over $100,000 per year minimum guaranteed. Therefore the fortress is especially immune to any macro-economic forces. If you don't buy now you'll be priced out forever. Listen to the duck. He'll tell you all you need to know.

20. ¥ Follow Befriend 35 threads 5,700 comments Bellingham, WA

    20   1:31pm Sat 12 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   well, the fortress is in fact different, partially if not largely thanks to the stupendous successes of goog and aapl. Truth be told, I'd rather live in Los Altos than Bellingham, but damn if that place is not a fortress.

21. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 272 threads 12,462 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    21   1:35pm Sat 12 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Troy says I don’t know what “the market” refers to but the markets I am interested in are still declining. The market, the charts, and indeed the entire thread pertain to the Bay Area in Northern California.

22. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 272 threads 12,462 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    22   1:36pm Sat 12 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   simchaland says Troy, how dare you inject foreign data into this thread? You can’t possibly know what is really going on here. See, the Bay Area is the most special place ever. And the “fortress,” aka the True Bay Area™, is the most specialest place ever anywhere on Earth. Prices never really go down here. Everyone wants to live here. If you claim you don’t, you are just in denial. That means that demand is always highest here and prices go up forever. No one is making that assertion, we just happen to be talking about Bay Area real estate right now. Bellingham WA real estate is a tangent.

23. simchaland Follow Befriend (6) 10 threads 1,234 comments Oakland, CA

    23   1:44pm Sat 12 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Duck, that's a great hatchet job of editing my post which is only somewhat tongue in cheek. Really take a look at that last graph that you posted and look past the peak. What do you see? Draw a line from the peak to the end of the graph averaging data points after the peak and you get (clutch the pearls and gasp) a decline? Say it ain't so, Ducky.

24. dunnross Follow Befriend 28 threads 1,489 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    24   2:20pm Sat 12 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   iwog says robertoaribas says 1. continued price declines ala case shiller. “Continued price declines” ala case Shiller is actually a flat line from early 2009 trending upward. Y’all need to brush up a bit on your chart reading skills. Continuing to post easily disproven propaganda doesn’t serve anyone. By the way, this chart is current and published 2 weeks ago. Oooh! I like it when the duck gets all technical. Let's see: chart-reading -> chart-patterns -> Head & Shoulders pattern -> Head peak at 280 -> Neckline at 140 -> Bottom = 140 - (280 - 140) = 0. That's right, a 12 year H&S pattern with a target price of 0 (give or take 5-10%) in the year of 2018. That's technical analysis for you - Mr. Ducky.

25. joshuatrio Follow Befriend 41 threads 703 comments Monterey, CA

    25   2:26pm Sat 12 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Nice commentary Dunross - very creative :)

26. dunnross Follow Befriend 28 threads 1,489 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    26   2:55pm Sat 12 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Yes, in fact the results of this graph's technical analysis point to data which confirms all other predictions, including those based on fundamental and historical analysis: Low Tier Target Price = 0 (Low Tier houses & land is pretty much worthless in a Depression - even in the Bay Area - see Detroit) Middle Tier Target Price = 40 High Tier Target Price = 70

27. joshuatrio Follow Befriend 41 threads 703 comments Monterey, CA

    27   5:01pm Sat 12 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   dunnross says Yes, in fact the results of this graph’s technical analysis point to data which confirms all other predictions, including those based on fundamental and historical analysis: Low Tier Target Price = 0 (Low Tier houses & land is pretty much worthless in a Depression - even in the Bay Area - see Detroit) Middle Tier Target Price = 40 High Tier Target Price = 70 Nice work - I believe more colors, especially neons would really help get your point across to those who don't understand the "head and shoulders" action we have going on.

28. dunnross Follow Befriend 28 threads 1,489 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    28   5:42pm Sat 12 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   The H&S action hasn't quite yet been confirmed, because the index didn't break below the neckline. However, we are pretty close to it, and if it does break down, prices are going down to their respective target levels. That's an 80% drop from the peak for the middle tear, which equates to prices going back to the 1975 levels (in nominal terms).

29. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 272 threads 12,462 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    29   5:56pm Sat 12 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Technical analysis. ROFLOL "I realized that technical analysis didn't work when I turned the chart upside down and didn't get a different answer." - Warren Buffett

30. tatupu70 Follow Befriend (3) 15 threads 5,606 comments

    30   6:08pm Sat 12 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   iwog says Technical analysis. ROFLOL “I realized that technical analysis didn’t work when I turned the chart upside down and didn’t get a different answer.” - Warren Buffett Agreed. If you have to use technical analysis to make your point, then you are officially reaching....

31. Hysteresis Follow Befriend (2) 14 threads 647 comments

    31   7:28pm Sat 12 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   TA gets a bad wrap. but it's pretty useful if, and that's a big if, you know what to look for when trading stocks(don't know how well it applies to a housing index). claiming that list prices are increasing, so that must mean sale prices will increase is a form of technical analysis (ie chart reading).

32. simchaland Follow Befriend (6) 10 threads 1,234 comments Oakland, CA

    32   7:49pm Sat 12 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Syphilis says claiming that list prices are increasing, so that must mean sale prices will increase is a form of technical analysis (ie chart reading). Is it on the same level as when I analyze someone's birth chart?

33. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 272 threads 12,462 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    33   7:58pm Sat 12 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   So can we agree that the real estate chart and expert technical analysis predicts a crash in the price of real estate? Enough wishy washy telephone-psychic type answers. What's going to happen?

34. dunnross Follow Befriend 28 threads 1,489 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    34   12:31am Sun 13 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   iwog says Technical analysis. ROFLOL “I realized that technical analysis didn’t work when I turned the chart upside down and didn’t get a different answer.” - Warren Buffett When you turn the H&S pattern upside down, you get an inverse H&S pattern, which is one of the most bullish patterns known to a technician.

35. nrc2112 Follow Befriend 7 comments

    35   7:50am Sun 13 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   What does fortress area mean?

36. thomas.wong1986 Follow Befriend 16 threads 4,426 comments

    36   10:28am Sun 13 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   nrc2112 says What does fortress area mean? It means "Shangri-La" a mythical place, permanently happy land, isolated from the outside world. It started around the year 2000. LOL! Seriously, Not sure what the big deal is. Plenty of people who lived in the Bay Area over the past several decades never considered some of these towns, or cities as the fortress.

37. ¥ Follow Befriend 35 threads 5,700 comments Bellingham, WA

    37   10:29am Sun 13 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   ^ basically an area where the only way homeowners leave is in a hearse. Everybody wants in, nobody wants out.

38. thomas.wong1986 Follow Befriend 16 threads 4,426 comments

    38   10:41am Sun 13 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Troy says Everybody wants in, nobody wants out. A black hole, where gravity pull is so intense not even light can escape.

39. B.A.C.A.H. Follow Befriend (6) 5 threads 2,359 comments

    39   12:49pm Sun 13 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   A few times a year I look up my zipcode on foreclosure.com to form an opinion for myself about value in my neighborhoods and ones nearby. I was surprised to see among the names of "defendants" someone who used to be my boss (an engineering manager), in a neighborhood where homes are all on oversized lots and are said to be worth over 1 M.

40. B.A.C.A.H. Follow Befriend (6) 5 threads 2,359 comments

    40   12:58pm Sun 13 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   thomas.wong1986 says people who lived in the Bay Area over the past several decades never considered some of these towns, or cities as the fortress. It's not the past anymore. In former decades, tech field employment in the region was dominated by defense which required citizenship, so mainly staffed by Americans with the Common Sense about what is a reasonable portion of the income to spend on housing. And besides, even for the growing consumer sector, employment was mainly of Americans because in former decades the H-1 exploitation and student visa gaming the system were not so prevalent. It's not the past anymore. Defense employment is not dominant, it's negligible. In the Silicon Valley area, most of the tech employment is for recent immigrants who bring their own sense of what is reasonable portion of income to pay for housing. Even today's irrational Fortress prices are bargains; Fortress neighborhoods are like the Wide Open Prairie. I expect my ex-bosses' residence, if he hasn't straightened things out, will be gobbled up by an immigrant tech worker. Because of these wealthy foreigners, the Bay Area and particularly Fortress communities in the Bay Area, is special; and it IS different this time.

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