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Hey Iwog - prices are falling

By gameisrigged   Follow   Fri, 18 Feb 2011, 12:37am   5,879 views   81 comments
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Didn't you predict that prices would start coming back by the end of 2010?

Well they aren't.

http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2011/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay110217.aspx

The median price paid for all new and resale houses and condos in the Bay Area was $338,000 in January, down 9.9 percent from $375,000 in December and down 3.4 percent from $350,000 in January 2010.

It doesn't look good. ALL Bay Area counties are down year-over-year. All of them.

Let's look at the whole state:

http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2011/News/California/RRCA110217.aspx

The median price paid for a home last month was $239,000, down 5.9 percent from $254,000 in December, and down 3.2 percent from $247,000 for January a year ago.

It's the fourth month in a row of YOY decreases for California.

Care to comment? (This should be good)

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1. MarkInSF Follow Befriend 14 threads 1,118 comments

   42   10:14pm Tue 26 Apr 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)   klarek says SubOink says I love how people have made it their task in life to prove IWOG wrong. He’s tasked himself with being wrong, the rest of us are just along for the ride. Yep. It's good to have a few bulls on the board so we can have the satisfaction of saying "I told you so".

2. MarkInSF Follow Befriend 14 threads 1,118 comments

   43   10:18pm Tue 26 Apr 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   EBGuy says My crystal ball says SF Bay Area C/S Index goes positive in April with a new low come next year (see 1995 for similar action). I'm curious what your reasoning is. Is it just seasonal? I had kind of written off the housing tax credit as very minor factor in the bay area, but the circumstantial evidence points to it actually being a powerful motivator. Now I'm wondering about the expiration of higher loan limits for Fannie, Freddie, and FHA loans in the fall.

3. tatupu70 Follow Befriend (3) 15 threads 5,653 comments

   44   5:20am Wed 27 Apr 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   MarkInSF says klarek says SubOink says I love how people have made it their task in life to prove IWOG wrong. He’s tasked himself with being wrong, the rest of us are just along for the ride. Yep. It’s good to have a few bulls on the board so we can have the satisfaction of saying “I told you so”. Yes, you can say I told you so even BEFORE you are right. It's a rare gift that you have...

4. schmitz_kris Follow Befriend 36 threads 178 comments

   45   6:12am Wed 27 Apr 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   How do you think one makes money in financial markets? You MUST prognosticate accurately. Your treat is profit and/or an avoidance of a loss. No "rare gift" is required. We are being sustained in a pitiful state by unprecedented money printing and accounting trickery - it's a complete scam, and the real economy, what is left of it, is ill. It doesn't take a wizard, telepath or anything esoteric to realize RE values are going to keep going down. I suppose we could do a flat-out currency revaluation manipulating a zero or two - would that make you happy?

5. tatupu70 Follow Befriend (3) 15 threads 5,653 comments

   46   6:44am Wed 27 Apr 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   schmitz_kris says How do you think one makes money in financial markets? You MUST prognosticate accurately. Your treat is profit and/or an avoidance of a loss. I think you missed the point. Saying I told you so isn't prognosticating...

6. klarek Follow Befriend (7) 1 threads 1,217 comments

   47   7:01am Wed 27 Apr 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   tatupu70 says Yes, you can say I told you so even BEFORE you are right. Implication that we're not in an official double dip, or that prices aren't falling?

7. tatupu70 Follow Befriend (3) 15 threads 5,653 comments

   48   8:10am Wed 27 Apr 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   klarek says tatupu70 says Yes, you can say I told you so even BEFORE you are right. Implication that we’re not in an official double dip, or that prices aren’t falling? I'd just have thought that you'd wait until prices actually fall below the earlier minimum...

8. klarek Follow Befriend (7) 1 threads 1,217 comments

   49   8:29am Wed 27 Apr 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   tatupu70 says I’d just have thought that you’d wait until prices actually fall below the earlier minimum… Off by 0.01 according to Case-Shiller, below previous false bottom by Core Logic's measures. But we sure don't want to be splitting hairs, or would we?

9. bubblesitter Follow Befriend (5) 10 threads 2,329 comments

   50   9:09am Wed 27 Apr 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   klarek says tatupu70 says I’d just have thought that you’d wait until prices actually fall below the earlier minimum… Off by 0.01 according to Case-Shiller, below previous false bottom by Core Logic’s measures. But we sure don’t want to be splitting hairs, or would we? Klarek, Hold your guns for 0.01 decline on the next CS report.

10. SubOink Follow Befriend (3) 9 threads 705 comments Los Angeles, CA

    51   9:10am Wed 27 Apr 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   MarkInSF says SubOink says I love how people have made it their task in life to prove IWOG wrong. He’s tasked himself with being wrong, the rest of us are just along for the ride. Yep. It’s good to have a few bulls on the board so we can have the satisfaction of saying “I told you so”. and boy, have you told me so!! Let's stop the premature ejaculation. See y'all in Sept/Oct. let's see if you will still have "told me so".

11. bg Follow Befriend (13) 42 threads 313 comments Pacifica, CA Premium

    52   7:06pm Wed 27 Apr 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Katy Perry says Iwog may never see a bottom in his lifetime. LOL! she said bottom!

12. tatupu70 Follow Befriend (3) 15 threads 5,653 comments

    53   9:08am Fri 29 Apr 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Shockingly, I didn't see this posted anywhere... http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20110428/bs_nm/us_usa_economy_housing1_1 I know, I know. Most of these sales won't make it to closing, right? "In other evidence that housing market woes may be settling, home builder Pulte Group Inc (PHM.N) reported a smaller-than-expected quarterly loss. The nation's second largest home builder said order cancellations had fallen and that it did not need to offer more incentives to lure customers" Oops. I guess they are making it to closing.

13. klarek Follow Befriend (7) 1 threads 1,217 comments

    54   9:24am Fri 29 Apr 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   tatupu70 says “In other evidence that housing market woes may be settling, home builder Pulte Group Inc (PHM.N) reported a smaller-than-expected quarterly loss. The nation’s second largest home builder said order cancellations had fallen and that it did not need to offer more incentives to lure customers” Oops. I guess they are making it to closing. That's quite a high bar there, lower losses than expected. I wonder which other builders are having less losses than were expected. I also wonder how new home sales in general compare to the past. http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/search/label/New%20Home%20Sales Wow, lowest level ever.

14. joshuatrio Follow Befriend 41 threads 704 comments Monterey, CA

    55   9:34am Fri 29 Apr 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   tatupu70 says Shockingly, I didn’t see this posted anywhere… http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20110428/bs_nm/us_usa_economy_housing1_1 I know, I know. Most of these sales won’t make it to closing, right? “In other evidence that housing market woes may be settling, home builder Pulte Group Inc (PHM.N) reported a smaller-than-expected quarterly loss. The nation’s second largest home builder said order cancellations had fallen and that it did not need to offer more incentives to lure customers” Oops. I guess they are making it to closing. Tatupu - pending home sales can be "up" and prices can fall at the same time. The title of this thread is that "prices are falling" - which they are.

15. klarek Follow Befriend (7) 1 threads 1,217 comments

    56   9:42am Fri 29 Apr 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   joshuatrio says Tatupu - pending home sales can be “up” and prices can fall at the same time. Typically falling prices will increase demand, hence sales increases. Always been an inverse correlation between the two. But when you shake up the demand side, sales can fall while prices are falling as well, as we've seen during the past eight months. That's the impact of the tax credit.

16. MarkInSF Follow Befriend 14 threads 1,118 comments

    57   10:00am Fri 29 Apr 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   tatupu70 says Shockingly, I didn’t see this posted anywhere… http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20110428/bs_nm/us_usa_economy_housing1_1 LOL. Home sales always pick up after the winter. The referred to NAR pending home sales index is down 11.5% from last March, so sales volumes are down from a year ago.

17. tatupu70 Follow Befriend (3) 15 threads 5,653 comments

    58   11:36am Fri 29 Apr 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   MarkInSF says tatupu70 says Shockingly, I didn’t see this posted anywhere… http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20110428/bs_nm/us_usa_economy_housing1_1 LOL. Home sales always pick up after the winter. The referred to NAR pending home sales index is down 11.5% from last March, so sales volumes are down from a year ago. Agreed, but last March was a good month--right before the end of the tax credit.

18. cooljohn Follow Befriend 1 threads 4 comments

    59   9:49pm Sat 30 Apr 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Iwog seems to be a very knowledgeable guy, he talks like he is some kind insider. i intent to believe him, but not on the housing prices. easy credit is gone. americans have already over spent. if China stops buying US bonds, the dollar's buying power will plummet. if China starts dumping US bonds, war will start. i dont see how prices can increase, unless there is a new way for people to get money.

19. B.A.C.A.H. Follow Befriend (6) 5 threads 2,359 comments

    60   9:54pm Sat 30 Apr 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   cooljohn says talks like he is some kind insider Of course he is an insider, running the day to day in and outs of a personal bankruptcy company; buying distressed properties and renting them out to working class folks who need a place to live. Exploitation on the way out, exploitation on the way in, and exploitation in between; and boasting about it throughout.

20. xenogear3 Follow Befriend 10 threads 419 comments

    61   4:21am Sun 1 May 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   He could be a pizza delivery boy during the daytime. Then become a lawyer, a stock analyst and a rich investor on the internet in the evening.

21. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,576 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    62   7:39am Sun 1 May 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Protected   xenogear3 says He could be a pizza delivery boy during the daytime. Then become a lawyer, a stock analyst and a rich investor on the internet in the evening. None of the above.

22. FortWayne Follow Befriend (13) 103 threads 3,768 comments

    63   11:40am Sun 1 May 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   iwog says None of the above. He secretly works for Aflac. :)

23. xenogear3 Follow Befriend 10 threads 419 comments

    64   12:54pm Sun 1 May 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Geico is more like it. Both animals are annoying.

24. dodgerfanjohn Follow Befriend 19 threads 591 comments Los Angeles, CA

    65   7:31pm Sun 1 May 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   iwog says xenogear3 says He could be a pizza delivery boy during the daytime. Then become a lawyer, a stock analyst and a rich investor on the internet in the evening. None of the above. It still astonishes me when I see people attach a measure of truth to any personal claims made by someone on an anonymous internet site.

25. B.A.C.A.H. Follow Befriend (6) 5 threads 2,359 comments

    66   9:11pm Sun 1 May 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   dodgerfanjohn says It still astonishes me when I see people attach a measure of truth to any personal claims made by someone on an anonymous internet site. iwog is not anonymous. He attaches a link to his family law practice on his posts. It is the link right under the word "Lafayette".

26. thomas.wong1986 Follow Befriend 16 threads 4,426 comments

    67   10:06pm Sun 1 May 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   sybrib says iwog is not anonymous. He attaches a link to his family law practice on his posts. It is the link right under the word “Lafayette”. Anyone could add a link to some business and lay claim. Hardly any evidence you or I can verify. If I was to believe the link is true, then HE is a SHE.

27. B.A.C.A.H. Follow Befriend (6) 5 threads 2,359 comments

    68   10:27pm Sun 1 May 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   thomas.wong1986 says If I was to believe the link is true, then HE is a SHE. thomas, iwog has written on his posts that his wife is the bankruptcy lawyer, not him. He has also referred to their clients including he posted the financial profile of one of their clients (so much for attorney client privilege), apparently he is involved in the office operations maybe as an office manager or paralegal or something like that.

28. Bap33 Follow Befriend (3) 12 threads 3,101 comments

    69   11:18pm Sun 1 May 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   .."he's a transpondster!!!" - Rachael Green

29. cloud13 Follow Befriend (1) 22 threads 142 comments

    70   8:55am Mon 2 May 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   iwog you are a celebrity here.....:-))

30. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,576 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    71   9:00am Mon 2 May 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   cloud13 says iwog you are a celebrity here…..:-)) I guess bad attention is better than no attention.

31. dodgerfanjohn Follow Befriend 19 threads 591 comments Los Angeles, CA

    72   10:55am Mon 2 May 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   sybrib says thomas.wong1986 says If I was to believe the link is true, then HE is a SHE. thomas, iwog has written on his posts that his wife is the bankruptcy lawyer, not him. He has also referred to their clients including he posted the financial profile of one of their clients (so much for attorney client privilege), apparently he is involved in the office operations maybe as an office manager or paralegal or something like that. I fail to see how this invalidates my astonishment, nor how it invalidates the relative anonymity provided.

32. thomas.wong1986 Follow Befriend 16 threads 4,426 comments

    73   11:27am Mon 2 May 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   I guess bankruptcy lawyers make great finance/econ experts.

33. RayAmerica Follow Befriend (9) 120 threads 2,591 comments Burbank, CA

    74   7:45pm Thu 5 May 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Prices have now dropped nationally below 2009 levels. Has anyone seen Iwog the Duck ? http://www.cnbc.com/id/42904204

34. B.A.C.A.H. Follow Befriend (6) 5 threads 2,359 comments

    75   9:00pm Thu 5 May 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Ray, if prices keep dropping, iwog will have even more to laugh his way to the bank on. More collapsing prices, more misery, more distressed homes, more misery, more distressed families, more misery, more bankruptcy clients (and fees) for his firm. More bankruptcies, more foreclosures and evictions, more folks needing rental property. More bankruptcies, more clients, more fees, more downpayment money for scooping up distressed homes. More foreclosure evictions, more families who need a rental place to live. If iwog is right about house prices he can gloat and quack here; if you are right about house prices he can laugh all the misery to the bank. Either way he "wins". Give it up.

35. gameisrigged Follow Befriend 3 threads 617 comments

    76   9:28pm Thu 5 May 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Sybrib, I wish I could have the 30 seconds back I spent reading that post.

36. RayAmerica Follow Befriend (9) 120 threads 2,591 comments Burbank, CA

    77   11:39am Fri 6 May 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   gameisrigged says Sybrib, I wish I could have the 30 seconds back I spent reading that post. I'll second that. LOL

37. thomas.wong1986 Follow Befriend 16 threads 4,426 comments

    78   11:53am Fri 6 May 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   sybrib says More collapsing prices, more misery, more distressed homes, more misery, more distressed families, more misery, more bankruptcy clients (and fees) for his firm The vast majority of homeowners, like myself, bought long ago. Prices are mearly going back to long term sustainable levels. The distressed home owners mearly experiences the 'charlie sheen effect' of soberity. All the hupla they believed why prices of homes were sustainable is vanishing. Soberity is a bitch!

38. klarek Follow Befriend (7) 1 threads 1,217 comments

    79   11:54am Fri 6 May 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   RayAmerica says Prices have now dropped nationally below 2009 levels. Has anyone seen Iwog the Duck ? http://www.cnbc.com/id/42904204 He's abandoned the housing market forum in order to make political arguments in Misc. He'll probably resurface if we have a month of increasing prices.

39. RayAmerica Follow Befriend (9) 120 threads 2,591 comments Burbank, CA

    80   11:14am Sat 7 May 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   klarek says He’s abandoned the housing market forum in order to make political arguments in Misc. He’ll probably resurface if we have a month of increasing prices. He'll be abandoning Misc. soon as well because his political views are in a down market (just like his housing views). Everybody picks on the Duck. The Duck just can't win. No matter where he goes, it's open season on daffy Ducks.

40. bubblesitter Follow Befriend (5) 10 threads 2,329 comments

    81   1:25pm Sat 7 May 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   RayAmerica says it’s open season on daffy Ducks. Is it an early or delayed season? :)

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