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Hey Iwog - prices are falling

By gameisrigged   Follow   Fri, 18 Feb 2011, 12:37am   5,877 views   81 comments
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Didn't you predict that prices would start coming back by the end of 2010?

Well they aren't.

http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2011/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay110217.aspx

The median price paid for all new and resale houses and condos in the Bay Area was $338,000 in January, down 9.9 percent from $375,000 in December and down 3.4 percent from $350,000 in January 2010.

It doesn't look good. ALL Bay Area counties are down year-over-year. All of them.

Let's look at the whole state:

http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2011/News/California/RRCA110217.aspx

The median price paid for a home last month was $239,000, down 5.9 percent from $254,000 in December, and down 3.2 percent from $247,000 for January a year ago.

It's the fourth month in a row of YOY decreases for California.

Care to comment? (This should be good)

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1. bubblesitter Follow Befriend (5) 10 threads 2,329 comments

   1   9:02am Fri 18 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   So only Iwog can comment?

2. joshuatrio Follow Befriend 41 threads 703 comments Monterey, CA

   2   9:06am Fri 18 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   I'm pretty sure his stance is that the bottom was in 2009 - and that we may bounce along the bottom for a while.

3. sfbubblebuyer Follow Befriend 1 threads 750 comments Redwood City, CA

   3   9:13am Fri 18 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   We'll probably see about 20% off of the 2009 lows before the next bottom is in. The bottom after that may be even lower!

4. Done! Follow Befriend (4) 159 threads 2,826 comments

   4   9:40am Fri 18 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   I'm finding it hard to go by the published numbers anyway. They keep saying South Florida prices fell like 3 or 5% in 2010 by the end of the fourth quarter. Bull Shit I was there. January of last year the average house I was looking at was going for 225-240K. By mid July when I made the offer on my house. Those same houses were going for 160-175K. By my calculations it was closer to a 40% reduction, by the end of the second quarter. Now I'm starting to see those houses that were listed for 300k-400k down to around 200K. We're going to over correct across the board by a lot. There wont be anything anyone can do about it. Most wanting financing wont be able to buy them. And those with money to pay cash will continue to want fire sales. If our monetary policy was there, we probably would have seen the bottom by now.

5. joshuatrio Follow Befriend 41 threads 703 comments Monterey, CA

   5   9:43am Fri 18 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   The FL market got nailed. I know a couple moving out there next month from CA, and they are thrilled at the cost of real estate out there.

6. joshuatrio Follow Befriend 41 threads 703 comments Monterey, CA

   6   9:49am Fri 18 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Mr.Fantastic says FL, Texas, any Southern State, buying a home is like buying a car literally. The prices are trashed. TX has always been cheap, they didn't have a ton of appreciation, and they probably won't have a lot of depreciation.... Not only are property taxes high but the weather sucks.

7. joshuatrio Follow Befriend 41 threads 703 comments Monterey, CA

   7   1:15pm Fri 18 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Mr.Fantastic says Yeah I’ve heard Texas has some extreme weather. It still amazes me that people can buy acres of property with a 4 bedroom home out there for less than $500,000 in a “nice” area. I lived in Fort Worth. Paid $117,000 for a 2 year old, all brick, 3/2 with modest upgrades, in a non-ghetto area. We had a tornado rip through our area once or twice, but that was about it. I'd never move back because: a) it routinely gets 110 + degrees for days at a time b) my psycho path mother in law lives in Dallas (my wife and I don't claim her)

8. gameisrigged Follow Befriend 3 threads 617 comments

   8   1:23pm Fri 18 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   joshuatrio says I’m pretty sure his stance is that the bottom was in 2009 - and that we may bounce along the bottom for a while. How are you "pretty sure" that is the case?

9. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,546 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

   9   1:25pm Fri 18 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Protected   Probably because he's right. Again, median home prices were attacked mercilessly on this site in 2008 as being unreliable and a measure of market segment instead of the general market. I find it odd that you'd dismiss Case-Shiller in favor of median when pretty much everyone has been using Case-Shiller as the standard for years. Smaller units are currently in vogue. It's very possible for median to be falling in a rising market. Why would you be so disingenuous?

10. gameisrigged Follow Befriend 3 threads 617 comments

    10   1:37pm Fri 18 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Ha, ha - I knew this would be good. So then your claim is that prices are actually rising, but the median figures give a false impression that they are falling. Really, Iwog? You're really going with that theory? Hilarious

11. gameisrigged Follow Befriend 3 threads 617 comments

    11   1:40pm Fri 18 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   joshuatrio says I’m pretty sure his stance is that the bottom was in 2009 - and that we may bounce along the bottom for a while. For the record, Iwog said: http://patrick.net/forum/?p=578859 Anyway completed sales should start to reflect increasing prices in December or January at the latest and will show up on all the indexes. Among other similar statements.

12. Bitcoins arent the future? Follow Befriend (1) 20 threads 174 comments Beverly Hills, CA

    12   1:54pm Fri 18 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Straight from your own article- 'A drop in sales from December to January is normal for the season, with the decline between those two months averaging 28.1 percent since 1988 when DataQuick’s statistics begin. Last month’s sales count was 19.2 percent below... ' So I'm seeing this January as 28.1 - 19.2 = 8.9% better than average sales numbers. 'The median price paid for all new and resale houses and condos in the Bay Area was $338,000 in January, down 9.9 percent from $375,000 in December and down 3.4 percent from $350,000 in January 2010.' the drop was 9.9% month over month, but only 3.4% year over year. I would guess that this is because the NAR was desparately trying to inflate home prices in 2010 but in reality they posted a 3.4% loss, which is fairly slow depreciation and may mean we are getting closer to an inflection point.

13. Katy Perry Follow Befriend 8 threads 530 comments Murrieta, CA

    13   2:07pm Fri 18 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Iwog may never see a bottom in his lifetime.

14. bubblesitter Follow Befriend (5) 10 threads 2,329 comments

    14   2:13pm Fri 18 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Katy Perry says Iwog may never see a bottom in his lifetime. No he does and will see it, but he does not want to admit it.

15. gameisrigged Follow Befriend 3 threads 617 comments

    15   2:54pm Fri 18 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Bubble Bobble says Straight from your own article- ‘A drop in sales from December to January is normal for the season, with the decline between those two months averaging 28.1 percent since 1988 when DataQuick’s statistics begin. Last month’s sales count was 19.2 percent below… ‘ So I’m seeing this January as 28.1 - 19.2 = 8.9% better than average sales numbers. ‘The median price paid for all new and resale houses and condos in the Bay Area was $338,000 in January, down 9.9 percent from $375,000 in December and down 3.4 percent from $350,000 in January 2010.’ the drop was 9.9% month over month, but only 3.4% year over year. I would guess that this is because the NAR was desparately trying to inflate home prices in 2010 but in reality they posted a 3.4% loss, which is fairly slow depreciation and may mean we are getting closer to an inflection point. Couple things wrong with this. First, I'm talking about PRICES, not sales volume. Iwog didn't make any predictions about sales volume that I know of, so let's not put words in his mouth. Second, you butchered your interpretation of the article. Here is the relevant part, quoted WITHOUT leaving things out: A total of 4,966 new and resale houses and condos sold in the nine-county Bay Area last month. That was down 30.8 percent from 7,178 in December and up 2.3 percent from 4,853 in January 2010, according to San Diego-based DataQuick Information Systems. A drop in sales from December to January is normal for the season, with the decline between those two months averaging 28.1 percent since 1988, when DataQuick’s statistics begin. Last month’s sales count was 19.2 percent below the January average of 6,148. Sales were down 30.8% from December, not 19.2% as you incorrectly claim. So not only were sales below average, the decline from December to January was ABOVE average. Third, I don't know what "only" 3.4% YOY is supposed to mean. If someone predicts prices will go up, and they go down instead, that person is wrong. Considering that prices were up YOY for most of last year, it's pretty significant that they are now down. I would guess that this is because the NAR was desparately trying to inflate home prices in 2010 but in reality they posted a 3.4% loss, which is fairly slow depreciation and may mean we are getting closer to an inflection point. Hmmm... these aren't NAR numbers, so I'm not sure what your point is.

16. thomas.wong1986 Follow Befriend 16 threads 4,426 comments

    16   3:03pm Fri 18 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Get ready California, prices are going up! By iwog Monday, 15 Nov 2010, 1:58 pm 5149 views 234 comments Watch this post Spikes in the listing price have a near perfect ability to predict sales reversals 3-4 months down the road. As I’ve been saying in various threads, asking prices are going up sharply in California. I think it’s mostly due to interest rates being low combined with tons of investment money looking for a decent return. California is NOT Florida/Las Vegas. Anyway completed sales should start to reflect increasing prices in December or January at the latest and will show up on all the indexes."

17. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,546 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    17   4:36pm Fri 18 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   I think I was pretty damn accurate. BTW Case-Shiller is not going to reflect January price data for another month and a half. December data isn't going to show up for two more weeks. Why are you people crowing about information that doesn't even exist yet?

18. ¥ Follow Befriend 35 threads 5,700 comments Bellingham, WA

    18   5:12pm Fri 18 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Why are you people crowing about information that doesn’t even exist yet? Home sales volume and prices slip in January http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-housing-prices-20110218,0,265603.story

19. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,546 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    19   5:18pm Fri 18 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Median has been falling steadily even as Case-Shiller has been reporting prices going up and down. Does a prediction my part really merit its own thread? I don't know if the cosmos can handle me being wrong...........

20. thomas.wong1986 Follow Befriend 16 threads 4,426 comments

    20   5:26pm Fri 18 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   iwog says I don’t know if the cosmos can handle me being wrong………..

21. cloud13 Follow Befriend (1) 22 threads 142 comments

    21   9:40pm Fri 18 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   I think iwog is correct..... we can wait but would you want to wait another 5 years ?

22. cloud13 Follow Befriend (1) 22 threads 142 comments

    22   9:41pm Fri 18 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   People who even bought in 2006 in some neighbourhoods are much better off than now.....what's the point ?

23. gameisrigged Follow Befriend 3 threads 617 comments

    23   10:41pm Fri 18 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike   Are you posting in the right thread, cloud13?

24. gameisrigged Follow Befriend 3 threads 617 comments

    24   10:43pm Fri 18 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   iwog says I think I was pretty damn accurate. Yeah, you were 95% right. The only mistake you made was using the word "up" instead of "down" :D

25. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,546 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    25   11:55pm Fri 18 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (2)   Protected   gameisrigged says Yeah, you were 95% right. The only mistake you made was using the word “up” instead of “down” I was very clear about what I think will happen. We'll know in a month and a half. All you're doing right now is trolling.

26. gameisrigged Follow Befriend 3 threads 617 comments

    26   12:40am Sat 19 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   iwog says gameisrigged says Yeah, you were 95% right. The only mistake you made was using the word “up” instead of “down” I was very clear about what I think will happen. We’ll know in a month and a half. All you’re doing right now is trolling. Gee, it's been almost 5 seconds since you accused anyone of "trolling". I was starting to worry about you. :D

27. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,546 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    27   12:58am Sat 19 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   gameisrigged says Gee, it’s been almost 5 seconds since you accused anyone of “trolling”. I was starting to worry about you. I think calling someone out in a thread title is the definition of trolling. It's not something I do. I would feel far too childish.

28. klarek Follow Befriend (7) 1 threads 1,217 comments

    28   9:36am Tue 26 Apr 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   iwog says I think I was pretty damn accurate. BTW Case-Shiller is not going to reflect January price data for another month and a half. December data isn’t going to show up for two more weeks. Why are you people crowing about information that doesn’t even exist yet? It's two months later. Looks like you were wrong and everybody else was right.

29. sfbubblebuyer Follow Befriend 1 threads 750 comments Redwood City, CA

    29   9:52am Tue 26 Apr 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   CNN is running a story on how the double dip is officially in. We've hit new lows!

30. klarek Follow Befriend (7) 1 threads 1,217 comments

    30   10:53am Tue 26 Apr 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   sfbubblebuyer says CNN is running a story on how the double dip is officially in. We’ve hit new lows! Great job CNN, way to catch up to the past. Yet their man Ali Velshi has been out there pimping for NAR the past two years. Whenever that dude talks housing, he's in the "go out and buy" mode. Per Case-Shiller, we're almost exactly tied with the post-bubble lows. Of course, they'll revise their data, and past revisions indicate that this new point will be the lowest point from the peak (until perhaps the next month's report:).

31. bubblesitter Follow Befriend (5) 10 threads 2,329 comments

    31   11:22am Tue 26 Apr 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   sfbubblebuyer says CNN is running a story on how the double dip is officially in. We’ve hit new lows! How many times CNN has said we are in the recovery?

32. sfbubblebuyer Follow Befriend 1 threads 750 comments Redwood City, CA

    32   11:52am Tue 26 Apr 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   That's kind of my point. If CNN's is saying we're in a double dip, how much longer before MSNBC finally admits it as well?

33. SubOink Follow Befriend (3) 9 threads 704 comments Los Angeles, CA

    33   12:33pm Tue 26 Apr 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)   sfbubblebuyer says That’s kind of my point. If CNN’s is saying we’re in a double dip, how much longer before MSNBC finally admits it as well? If you are leaning towards the media like CNN or MNSBC to get your info then you're never going to really know what's going on. They mislead the public in any way and make sure to get everybody in at tops and out at bottoms...for example, yesterday they announced gold going to 5000...today silver had the biggest drop in a long time...LOL! It's nothing but a circus - lets go doom and gloom to get everybody worried and sell and lets get everyone excited to buy... You can pretty much trade against those CNBC type channels. I love how people have made it their task in life to prove IWOG wrong. I am actually jealous of the fame. Iwog, you know you made it when your name shows up in threads. Good job!!

34. klarek Follow Befriend (7) 1 threads 1,217 comments

    34   12:47pm Tue 26 Apr 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   SubOink says I love how people have made it their task in life to prove IWOG wrong. He's tasked himself with being wrong, the rest of us are just along for the ride.

35. Hysteresis Follow Befriend (2) 14 threads 648 comments

    35   12:51pm Tue 26 Apr 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   SubOink says I am actually jealous of the fame there's always room for another retarded kid for us to pick on.

36. Shawn Follow Befriend 3 threads 106 comments San Diego, CA

    36   2:39pm Tue 26 Apr 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   What's the point of personal attacks? Instead of spending so much time trying to point out who was wrong and how wrong they were, how about actually debating the datapoints you find relavent? Although I disagree with him, I think IWOG does that. He pulls up the numbers/charts from where he gets his opinion and then opens the debate. Everyone is entitled to their own opinion of the market. Put your money where your mouth is and see what happens.

37. thomas.wong1986 Follow Befriend 16 threads 4,426 comments

    37   4:03pm Tue 26 Apr 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Shawn says He pulls up the numbers/charts from where he gets his opinion and then opens the debate. In Iwogs world, everthing began in the year after 2000. He/she ignored any and all data pertaining to housing prices prior to 2000. I dont know what Iwog puts in his/her month, like many things people say, it cant be verified because they so wrote it on message board.

38. klarek Follow Befriend (7) 1 threads 1,217 comments

    38   5:20pm Tue 26 Apr 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Shawn says What’s the point of personal attacks? It's not a personal attack. Keep in mind you're talking about a guy who goes so far to argue his ridiculous points that he'll insultingly throw an "early winter doldrums market" excuse for falling prices.... for AUGUST. I like debates that are challenging. To his credit, he can sometimes offer something resembling that. Not most of the time though.

39. EBGuy Follow Befriend 4 threads 2,095 comments

    39   6:08pm Tue 26 Apr 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   I dont know what Iwog puts in his/her month, like many things people say, it cant be verified because they so wrote it on message board. Uhh... yes it can. That is why he is so credible. That said, I certainly don't agree with him about all things. My crystal ball says SF Bay Area C/S Index goes positive in April with a new low come next year (see 1995 for similar action).

40. B.A.C.A.H. Follow Befriend (6) 5 threads 2,359 comments

    40   6:52pm Tue 26 Apr 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   klarek says It’s two months later. Looks like you were wrong and everybody else was right. I doubt that iwog is at all concerned if he was wrong about that; he his just having his fun arguing with others here. Iwog is probably laughing all the way to the bank. The worse real estate gets, the more his for-profit bankruptcy firm can exploit people who are on the losing end of the trend. More fees, more profit, and after his clients have lost their homes, more cheap housing for him to buy up so he can exploit those kinda people again for the positive cash flow rentals he's been boasting about.

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