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Home sales data misreported due to NAR problem

By inflection point   Follow   Wed, 23 Feb 2011, 7:11pm   323 views   2 comments
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Calculated Risk: Real House Prices fall to 2000 Levels, Update on NAR Overstating Sales.

The National Association of Realtors issues monthly estimates of the number of homes sold in the U.S. Due to a problem in their methodology, their estimates of home sales may have been 10% to 15% too high from about 2007 onwards.

This would mean that the real estate market is a bit worse than thought with the “months-of-supply” now being much longer than previously disclosed.

In non-inflation adjusted terms, home prices, on average, are now back to early 2003 levels. When adjusted for inflation, home prices have fallen to year 2000 levels (as I read the article). Estimates of further price declines range from 5% to 25% drops – but no one has done well at making predictions.

Hmmm Problem. What do you think?

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1. klarek Follow Befriend (7) 1 threads 1,217 comments

   1   7:12pm Wed 23 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   I think NAR needs to be burned to the ground.

2. terriDeaner Follow Befriend (7) 70 threads 1,151 comments

   2   10:13pm Wed 23 Feb 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   CR has been on top of this story for a while. Zero hedge also had a piece about this a month or so ago (can't find the link, their search engine sucks). Ultimately, I guess the question becomes... Is the damage done? One one hand, the cooked sales figures probably helped to bolster prices in some markets over the past few years. On the other, ACTUAL unaccounted for inventory could help push up supply in said markets. Only time will tell.