Patrick.net

Is this the bottom :-)

By SP   Follow   Mon, 13 Oct 2008, 6:45am   2,830 views   193 comments
Watch (0)   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

I wanted to get this in before the Dow crashes again... (it is up 400 points this morning).

I have no reason to believe this is the bottom of this depression.

However, what are you going to look for as signs?

Reversion to trend? Which trend, and how far? Dow was 3800 at the beginning of 1995, and 6800 in Jan '97.

Or "is it different now", and we can't really look to simple numbers like the DJIA and Nasdaq to tell us when a widespread credit-bust may be coming to an end?

(Racist, sexist and other anti-American posts will be taken out back and shot.)

SP

« First     « Previous     Viewing Comments 154-193 of 193     Last »     See most liked comments

1. Malcolm Follow Befriend 2,842 comments Carlsbad, CA Malcolm's website

   154   10:30am Wed 15 Oct 2008   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   I'm getting a sinking feeling that this time next year for the first time in my life there might be a decline in the global population.

2. Peter P Follow Befriend (4) 117 threads 17,655 comments Premium

   155   10:39am Wed 15 Oct 2008   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   I’m getting a sinking feeling that this time next year for the first time in my life there might be a decline in the global population. That may help reduce carbon emission.

3. Malcolm Follow Befriend 2,842 comments Carlsbad, CA Malcolm's website

   156   10:43am Wed 15 Oct 2008   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   There is more than one thing going on. Is the Russian captured ship with the tanks still going on? This was a seperate Iranian tanker that evidently didn't make the news, or I just missed it. I'm confused but it is crazy nonetheless.

4. DennisN Follow Befriend 4 threads 1,056 comments Boise, ID

   157   11:13am Wed 15 Oct 2008   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Getting back on topic.... ....yes this must be the bottom: I have it on the best authority. :) http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2008/10/15/financial/f090057D89.DTL&tsp=1 The worst is over ... said Leslie Appleton-Young

5. MST Follow Befriend 114 comments

   158   12:24pm Wed 15 Oct 2008   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Malcolm/TOB: Oh, yeah, the Ukranian troop/tanks/weapons ship is still out there: http://www.wlos.com/template/inews_wire/wires.international/23588081-www.wlos.com.shtml As for "Iranian/Chinese": sorry for my shorthand. The whateveritis cargo of MV Iran Deyanat was loaded in Nanjing, the shipping company regularly falsifies its manifests to get around UN sanctions (of the IAEA-Uranium Enrichment type), and China has certainly been selling weapons, missiles and apparently "fissiles" to mid-east tin-pots for decades now. I wasn't claiming this as a joint military exercise, nor that China would have known what was up, but wouldn't China dearly love to see us embroiled in more middle-east horror shows? Still haven't found a contradiction in these stories... still looking for the Russian confirmation... Still waiting on Armeggeddon... Oh, yeah... That 900 point rally? Um. Nevermind.

6. MST Follow Befriend 114 comments

   159   12:54pm Wed 15 Oct 2008   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   TOB: We're talking about two ships here just to clarify for Malcolm: the Ukranian one with the guns, soldiers and tanks, and the Iranian bulk carrier with the Mysterious Cargo. The second is the one that is killing it's Somali Pirates stangely. Iranian ship, mostly Iranian crew, Loaded in China, seized August 21. Anchored off Eyl (?) Sorry for the confusion. 2 different ships.

7. Malcolm Follow Befriend 2,842 comments Carlsbad, CA Malcolm's website

   160   12:59pm Wed 15 Oct 2008   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   MST Says: October 15th, 2008 at 10:21 am "JustYou: There is no way the MSM would not have reported something on this if it were true". uh, yeah, OK. We’ll let that pass. __________ Thanks for finding a real link at least confirming the story of the cargo and the deaths. That is really disturbing.

8. MST Follow Befriend 114 comments

   161   1:00pm Wed 15 Oct 2008   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   stangely = strangely

9. Malcolm Follow Befriend 2,842 comments Carlsbad, CA Malcolm's website

   162   1:00pm Wed 15 Oct 2008   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   MST Says: October 15th, 2008 at 12:54 pm "TOB: We’re talking about two ships here just to clarify for Malcolm: the Ukranian one with the guns, soldiers and tanks, and the Iranian bulk carrier with the Mysterious Cargo." I figured it out eventually but thanks.

10. Malcolm Follow Befriend 2,842 comments Carlsbad, CA Malcolm's website

    163   1:03pm Wed 15 Oct 2008   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   I understand the relationships at hand, before today I wasn't aware of the Iranian ship being seized.

11. Malcolm Follow Befriend 2,842 comments Carlsbad, CA Malcolm's website

    164   1:09pm Wed 15 Oct 2008   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   The Original Bankster Says: October 15th, 2008 at 1:02 pm "the idea of a Iranian ship being hijacked by somali pirates and getting radiation disease:" MST provided the link substantiating the general facts. http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,430681,00.html I agree FOX News is biased but I accept that as confirmation of the story.

12. Malcolm Follow Befriend 2,842 comments Carlsbad, CA Malcolm's website

    165   1:18pm Wed 15 Oct 2008   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   The Original Bankster Says: October 15th, 2008 at 1:10 pm "come on, remember how Fox news was reporting on the Georgian conflict?" Not sure what this is, she told a different story than they were expecting and they allowed them to tell the story.

13. Malcolm Follow Befriend 2,842 comments Carlsbad, CA Malcolm's website

    166   1:21pm Wed 15 Oct 2008   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Like I say, Fox News can be accused of being biased to the right, while other networks are to the left, but you can't honestly say that Fox News link is in the same realm as the dozens of conspiracy sites. It is a legitimate news network.

14. MST Follow Befriend 114 comments

    167   1:23pm Wed 15 Oct 2008   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Well, TOB, even the Iranians agree the ship was hijacked: http://www.tehrantimes.com/index_View.asp?code=179673

15. Malcolm Follow Befriend 2,842 comments Carlsbad, CA Malcolm's website

    168   1:23pm Wed 15 Oct 2008   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   And yes, Putin makes me nervous as well. The last thing we need right now is for Russia to go back to its old ways.

16. Malcolm Follow Befriend 2,842 comments Carlsbad, CA Malcolm's website

    169   1:28pm Wed 15 Oct 2008   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   ‘Russia attacked Georgia’ I honestly don't know but the other related videos were titled things like "Fox cuts off girl telling the truth" and that stuff. I thought that was the point. I didn't see it that way. Rather than debate it, why don't you tell us why Georgia attacked Russia? I wasn't aware that was in dispute. Be quick before the OT police start whining.

17. MST Follow Befriend 114 comments

    170   1:31pm Wed 15 Oct 2008   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   And that other link: http://www.thetimes.co.za/PrintEdition/Article.aspx?id=851953 Is the Times of South Africa, which confirms most of the broad outlines of the story. Please note the date: Sep. 28. Not a Murdoch paper, AFAIK. ;-) You can sample here, too: http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2008/09/mystery_surrounds_hi.php

18. KurtS Follow Befriend 1 threads 973 comments

    171   1:32pm Wed 15 Oct 2008   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   As read on the link above on Iceland. "Iceland was one of the richest countries in the world. A pale reflection of the golden age in Icelandic economy which is now going up in flames. Where’s the smoke?...The world is treating us like we’re dead. Bank accounts frozen. No business without cash payments in advance." I talk to friends in Iceland frequently, and during the high point most admitted to an unreal amount of economic activity, although the bubble were chalked up to the inherent "success" of their economy. Of course, massively excessive leverage was pushing the facade of their economy along. Assumptions drove more assumptions, until fundamentals are completely forgotten--sound familiar? Judging from that article, it doesn't sound like many people are owning up to the causes--familiar again.

19. Peter P Follow Befriend (4) 117 threads 17,655 comments Premium

    172   1:36pm Wed 15 Oct 2008   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   And yes, Putin makes me nervous as well. The last thing we need right now is for Russia to go back to its old ways. Russia is now rich, with mega-yachts to protect. I doubt they will go back to their old ways. But they play games well. Back in the days when humans could beat computers in chess, the best players were Russians. :)

20. Malcolm Follow Befriend 2,842 comments Carlsbad, CA Malcolm's website

    173   1:39pm Wed 15 Oct 2008   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   I would think they were doing pretty well. I can't wait for Bush to go and maybe we can get back on track to some sort of productive relationship with Russia. Bush sure has a way of pissing other countries off. I saw him lecturing Putin one time on democracy. Oh boy, I thought, that was pretty stupid.

21. Malcolm Follow Befriend 2,842 comments Carlsbad, CA Malcolm's website

    174   1:45pm Wed 15 Oct 2008   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   That I do know.

22. Malcolm Follow Befriend 2,842 comments Carlsbad, CA Malcolm's website

    175   1:49pm Wed 15 Oct 2008   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   That's just the way of life over there. Just like in all the latin countries, organized crime runs things the same way.

23. Malcolm Follow Befriend 2,842 comments Carlsbad, CA Malcolm's website

    176   1:51pm Wed 15 Oct 2008   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   I played volleyball with a guy who was Russian but looked Japanese. Another player asked me on the side how that could be. I rolled my eyes and said, "figure it out."

24. MST Follow Befriend 114 comments

    177   1:52pm Wed 15 Oct 2008   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   K. Jim Geraghty had the story running on NRO and he's finally got some feedback (It took this long!) UPDATED: Two readers with backgrounds in national security and naval affairs tell me not to worry and that the story is bogus. If they're not worried, I'm not worried. TOB's nose vindicated. Provided you believe those national security types.

25. Malcolm Follow Befriend 2,842 comments Carlsbad, CA Malcolm's website

    178   2:00pm Wed 15 Oct 2008   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   "TOB’s nose vindicated. Provided you believe those national security types." Time will tell, but I respect his original points of view.

26. Peter P Follow Befriend (4) 117 threads 17,655 comments Premium

    179   3:25pm Wed 15 Oct 2008   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Bernanke says bubbles should be tackled: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a_EGuB7kQmyo&refer=home Why now? Perhaps they want to suppress the coming commodity bubble?

27. OO Follow Befriend 1 threads 3,248 comments

    180   4:18pm Wed 15 Oct 2008   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Looks like the US is making it more difficult for both citizens and PRs to give up their status. "Congress has passed a law that will tax the assets of those who leave for good on their way out the door, as if they were selling those assets. But tax experts say the more significant change may be a provision that taxes U.S. heirs on amounts given or left to them by ex-U.S. citizens. Taxing the recipient instead of the donor will make it harder to get around the tax rules. "The new rules say, if you leave any of your property to a U.S. person, it will be taxed at the rates for U.S. gift tax," which are currently 45%, says Henry Alden, a certified public accountant at Everest International Group, a Baltimore-based financial-planning firm. * * * U.S. citizens and long-term residents who are terminating their status will be taxed once on their unrealized gains, at current market rates. Stock portfolios, real estate, art and most other types of assets will be captured by this new "mark to market" tax. Some experts say the new law could deter some citizens or residents from leaving the U.S., since the benefits of doing so will be reduced. Yet the simplicity of the new one-time tax may appeal to others." Gotta make sure the little ones are not US citizens, I believe that a natural born US citizen has the right to give it up when he reaches 18.

28. OO Follow Befriend 1 threads 3,248 comments

    181   4:22pm Wed 15 Oct 2008   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Our founding fathers must be turning in graves knowing that the new country they founded turned exactly into a tyranny that they were trying to escape.

29. justme Follow Befriend (2) 33 threads 3,460 comments

    182   4:59pm Wed 15 Oct 2008   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   The bad news, is that the stock market is going to hell in a handbasket. The good news is, if this doesnnot cause the fortress to crack, nothing will (no prediction on the timeline, though).

30. justme Follow Befriend (2) 33 threads 3,460 comments

    183   6:34pm Wed 15 Oct 2008   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   I'm waiting for Joe The Plumber to show up amongst us. Anyone :-) ?

31. justme Follow Befriend (2) 33 threads 3,460 comments

    184   6:36pm Wed 15 Oct 2008   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Who's going to be Joe The Plumber on SNL this week? My bet is on Will Forte.

32. thenuttyneutron Follow Befriend 438 comments

    185   6:52pm Wed 15 Oct 2008   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Ohio is full of stupid people. I was imported to the state to fill a job position that could not find qualified locals to fill. Out of a total of eleven openings, all had to be filled with people from out of the state. The smart people of the state got out long ago when they could.

33. thenuttyneutron Follow Befriend 438 comments

    186   6:54pm Wed 15 Oct 2008   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Asia is falling apart again.

34. thenuttyneutron Follow Befriend 438 comments

    187   7:14pm Wed 15 Oct 2008   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   TOB yes.

35. thenuttyneutron Follow Befriend 438 comments

    188   7:20pm Wed 15 Oct 2008   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   I take back the all part. There was a guy from South Ohio.

36. Peter P Follow Befriend (4) 117 threads 17,655 comments Premium

    189   11:00pm Wed 15 Oct 2008   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Huh?

37. Peter P Follow Befriend (4) 117 threads 17,655 comments Premium

    190   11:01pm Wed 15 Oct 2008   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   The smart people of the state got out long ago when they could. Randy is one fine example.

38. janni Follow Befriend 1 comments janni's website

    191   12:10pm Thu 16 Oct 2008   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Just a quick note to say thanks for using my 'fat bottom' picture although you might have asked me first. Let me know if anyone would like a print. Oh and I think the seat could well buckle under this greed ridden bloated artificial economy. http://jane.classycoolmusic.com/art2.htm

39. SP Follow Befriend 15 threads 1,255 comments

    192   11:27pm Thu 16 Oct 2008   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Janni please accept my apologies for linking to the image without permission - I just happened to find it on google-images. You have a very good portfolio, specially liked your photograph of the priory.

40. BeachRealty Follow Befriend 2 comments BeachRealty's website

    193   6:32am Sun 14 Dec 2008   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   I think you need to go back to the mid 80s Dow closer to 2000-3000, in 1985 dollars. The much touted great bull market was just that, BULL. built on cheap, over used credit and over leveraging assets everywhere. By the government printing money to bail out everyone we will eventually devalue the assets we are trying to maintain, though inflation.

« First     « Previous comments