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Investing in Australian $ or the Australian market.

By American in Japan   Follow   Sun, 10 Apr 2011, 11:56pm   3,824 views   30 comments
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Australian dollar is up again. Is anyone buying Australian dollars this month?

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?d=t&s=FXA (ETF)
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=FXA+Basic+Chart&t=3m (three month graph)

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1. justme Follow Befriend (2) 33 threads 3,456 comments

   1   7:52am Mon 11 Apr 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   What about the effect of the (finally) bursting Australian housing bubble?

2. justme Follow Befriend (2) 33 threads 3,456 comments

   2   7:56am Mon 11 Apr 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   This link is from yesterday: http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/04/australian-home-sales-sink-luxury-units.html

3. FortWayne Follow Befriend (13) 102 threads 3,759 comments

   3   8:02am Mon 11 Apr 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   I have relatives living in Australia. They got a pretty painful bubble out there, I recommend staying out.

4. Nomograph Follow Befriend (1) 104 threads 2,851 comments

   4   9:05am Mon 11 Apr 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   ChrisLA says I recommend staying out. I recommend doing the exact opposite of anything ChrisLA recommends.

5. American in Japan Follow Befriend (28) 149 threads 1,398 comments

   5   9:05am Mon 11 Apr 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Does that mean the housing market, their stock market or both?

6. theoakman Follow Befriend 2 threads 644 comments

   6   10:22am Mon 11 Apr 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Australia's housing market failed to pop in 2007 and continued to go up on a resource/export boom to China. If you believe China is in a bubble, then Australia isn't far behind. What that means for the AUD is up in the air. It's more psychology than any fundamentals in the short term, even after a pop in the Chinese bubble. I bailed on all my Australian investments (mostly mining stocks) the second they started talking about taxing them more than they already were. Personally, I'm out of Australia for good. I do own a small agriculture stock in New Zealand. That's about it.

7. justme Follow Befriend (2) 33 threads 3,456 comments

   7   10:33am Mon 11 Apr 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Agree that AUD could have some wild swings when the sh*t really hits the fan in Australia. Remember how the USD went **up** when the US stock market crashed (along with the housing bubble bursting) in 2008? The same thing could happen in Australia, or perhaps is already happening. But it is far from certain and not easy to time. Then there is the effect of the inevitable public interventions in the market. Australia's markets are going to be the same hornet's nest as we had here. Very diifficult to play unless you are the equivalent of "Government" Sachs.

8. American in Japan Follow Befriend (28) 149 threads 1,398 comments

   8   5:11pm Mon 11 Apr 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   @theoakman How did you do while you held the mining stocks? Did you get a good gain when you sold?

9. theoakman Follow Befriend 2 threads 644 comments

   9   6:53pm Mon 11 Apr 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)   I'm still holding. Biggest winner SLW (not really a mining stock though), approaching 950% gain. I jumped in heavy Nov/December 2008 when they got beat down. Put about 80% of the money I made from my new job into them the past 2 years as well. Basically, got me a house paid for in full if I want. At this rate, I may get another one when its all said and done. I think late 2008 was a once in a lifetime buying opportunity. These things are up 50 to 100% from their 2008 highs but way more from their 2008 lows. They should have never gone that low. I've always maintained that Gold is going to $2k and Silver is going to $50. Looks like Silver gets there first. I start major profit taking once either of those things happen. My time frame for that happening was always around 2013. I'll settle for 2 years early.

10. American in Japan Follow Befriend (28) 149 threads 1,398 comments

    10   11:15pm Tue 10 May 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Australian dollar is up above $1.08 $US again... Where will the Australian dollar go from here?

11. American in Japan Follow Befriend (28) 149 threads 1,398 comments

    11   2:50am Sun 26 Jun 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Australian dollar around 105.5 $US...

12. uomo_senza_nome Follow Befriend (13) 787 threads 1,542 comments

    12   9:48am Sun 26 Jun 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   You could short the Australian banks...I think there's Common wealth bank and West pac bank that have enormous exposure to the housing mortgages on their portfolio...and these banks are way overvalued, when considering the risk they have taken on. Steven Keen (debtdeflation.com, Australian economist) suggested this on Peter Schiff's radio show once.

13. American in Japan Follow Befriend (28) 149 threads 1,398 comments

    13   7:57pm Tue 9 Aug 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   The Australian Dollar has taken a hit in the last week.

14. American in Japan Follow Befriend (28) 149 threads 1,398 comments

    14   5:33pm Tue 30 Aug 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   The Australian dollar is inching back up.... over $107(US).

15. theoakman Follow Befriend 2 threads 644 comments

    15   6:17am Wed 31 Aug 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   I think the Aussie Dollar is going to have major problems with China faultering. They'll turn to the printing press and send it down. I'm not much for trading currencies though. Long precious metals seems to be all the insurance one has needed against currency moves.

16. FortWayne Follow Befriend (13) 102 threads 3,759 comments

    16   7:47am Wed 31 Aug 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Australia is in for some serious pain. Their housing bubble isn't sustainable anymore since no suckers left to play the game. They'll either let foreclosures happen or try to print money inflating their currency to worthless. It was a prison colony when Brits kicked them out, it probably will get back there again.

17. AJ Follow Befriend 1 comments

    17   8:45am Wed 31 Aug 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Macquarie tips Australian dollar could reach $US1.20 http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/markets/macquarie-tips-australian-dollar-could-reach-us120/story-e6frg94o-1226126520294

18. American in Japan Follow Befriend (28) 149 threads 1,398 comments

    18   8:51am Wed 31 Aug 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   @FortWayne Got an axe to grind with the Australians?

19. FortWayne Follow Befriend (13) 102 threads 3,759 comments

    19   9:30am Wed 31 Aug 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   American in Japan says @FortWayne Got an axe to grind with the Australians? Just with their government.

20. Patrick Follow Befriend (54) 5,181 threads 6,153 comments 46 male Menlo Park, CA Premium

    20   12:45pm Wed 31 Aug 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Seems to me it might be a good bet to buy Australian government bonds at this point. When their housing bubble gets seriously deflated, they are probably going to lower interest rates like the US did. This just mathematically drives up the price of existing bonds. Of course their currency will fall if their interest rates fall, so your gains would be in nominal Australian dollars, which is fine if you want to spend them in Australia. Not investment advice, just speculation. Wait, not speculation either. Just, uh, musings or something like that.

21. Clara Follow Befriend (10) 11 threads 169 comments San Bruno, CA

    21   1:11pm Wed 31 Aug 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   When so-and-so tell you "look into this, this is good investment", that shit is most likely overvalued already.

22. FortWayne Follow Befriend (13) 102 threads 3,759 comments

    22   2:48pm Wed 31 Aug 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Patrick says When their housing bubble gets seriously deflated, they are probably going to lower interest rates like the US did. This just mathematically drives up the price of existing bonds. Of course their currency will fall if their interest rates fall, so your gains would be in nominal Australian dollars, which is fine if you want to spend them in Australia. That actually sounds like a good idea, at least I do expect their bubble to pop in next few years. I just don't really understand how bonds work to make that call.

23. American in Japan Follow Befriend (28) 149 threads 1,398 comments

    23   11:46pm Thu 16 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   How will the Australian dollar fare in the next 3 years?...

24. uomo_senza_nome Follow Befriend (13) 787 threads 1,542 comments

    24   10:51am Fri 17 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   American in Japan says How will the Australian dollar fare in the next 3 years?... Australia is a commodity based economy and commodities will fare strong when all currencies are weakened competitively (currency wars - everybody wants a weaker currency than everybody else and therefore they all weaken at different rates over time). All currencies will be devalued, because no currency can be allowed to become too strong (severe deflation). Lessons can be learned from Swiss Franc (CHF) for e.g.. It is pegged at 1.20 to the Euro. We are in a currency war and those who don't fight, lose - Colombian Finance Minister. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-13/currency-flows-reversing-china-to-colombia-as-trade-slows.html To answer your question: relatively it can do well (say against the euro or the dollar), but when measured against hard assets - it will also lose value over time.

25. American in Japan Follow Befriend (28) 149 threads 1,398 comments

    25   7:41pm Fri 17 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Thanks for the info.

26. American in Japan Follow Befriend (28) 149 threads 1,398 comments

    26   1:49am Fri 12 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Interest rates were lowered again this month...

27. B.A.C.A.H. Follow Befriend (6) 5 threads 2,359 comments

    27   12:30pm Fri 12 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   My partner's cousin lives somewhere near Melbourne. The extended family recently "invested" in a SFH rental. Sky was the limit. Someone in that clan (a CPA) just got riff'ed by the municipality she worked at.

28. Michinaga Follow Befriend (2) 3 threads 283 comments

    28   2:52pm Fri 12 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike   Brentok3 says You should note that the Australian dollar went to around 60 cents to the US dollar during the 2008-9 crisis. This is when I put $1000 US into AUD. A nice, safe, easy hedge, and it worked out great. That money is now $1500. A small investment, sure, but that 50% USD-denominated return in just 4 years is fantastic. All my savings accounts pay under 0.5% per year, and I own negligible stock (employer forbids it) -- so it feels very strange to have unearned income like that.

29. curious2 Follow Befriend (5) 31 threads 2,227 comments Premium

    29   3:04pm Fri 12 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   theoakman says I bailed on all my Australian investments.... theoakman says I'm still holding. Biggest winner.... Oz sounds like a magical place where you can have your cake and eat it too.

30. E-man Follow Befriend (31) 34 threads 2,542 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    30   7:12pm Fri 12 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected   Michinaga says Brentok3 says You should note that the Australian dollar went to around 60 cents to the US dollar during the 2008-9 crisis. This is when I put $1000 US into AUD. A nice, safe, easy hedge, and it worked out great. That money is now $1500. A small investment, sure, but that 50% USD-denominated return in just 4 years is fantastic. All my savings accounts pay under 0.5% per year, and I own negligible stock (employer forbids it) -- so it feels very strange to have unearned income like that. Nice. Congrats. 50% return in 4 years is great.