I'm buying up July puts today. So far I've got 20 x $280, 20 x $285, and 20 x $300. I'm also selling May $350 calls
- ipad clones getting very good
- Google is entering the market
- iphone and droid sales currently about even
- product shortages for apple coming
- chart looks identical to Google in late 2007
I haven't been to Vegas for awhile so this is my gambling for the month.

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austrian_man says
I don't accept your correction and consider it nothing more than bullshit. Free-market unrestrained capitalism is a dismal failure and results in poverty for the vast majority of citizens whenever and wherever it is tried.
The federal reserve is irrelevant to this main point. If you can't understand a game of Monopoly, you have no business discussing the economy.
wormwood says
The system abandoned by the country when Reagan was elected president. A highly progressive tax system, strong unions, strong economic borders, anti-trust enforcement, and active regulatory agencies.
It worked fine from 1946 to 1980 and also helped the country emerge from the depression after 1932. It's also the system employed by all other successful first world nations.
The world you want is best represented by Somalia. They didn't have a central bank until very recently you know.
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iwog says
wormwood says
Iwog, why do you even try?
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archaeonflux says
Hehe.....well this may sound weird, but I write mostly to put my own thoughts in order. :)
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wormwood says
Yup. There's a huge difference between the economy at the beginning of a Monopoly game (the fun part) and the end of a Monopoly game. (when most capital assets are in the hands of the aristocracy)
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wormwood says
Game over Iwog, the "Founding fathers had the perfect system in mind, and we've just corrupted it with our silly laws" card has been played. Pack up your shit and GTFO!
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wormwood says
I'm not trying to troll you, but this is yet another instance of you tripping all over your own bullshit. Fucking listen to me this time and stop replacing what I actually write with the voices in your head.
I never said I love socialism. I've never advocated socialism. I think socialism is a dead end in most cases. I own and operate two businesses. I have employees. I pay medical benefits. I'm not even all that liberal.
The economy is like a game of Monopoly because every fundamental aspect is modeled almost perfectly. Furthermore the economy has been performing exactly like the model. Wealth disparity reaches an all time high in 1929, crash. Wealth disparity nearly matches the all time high in 2008, crash. The same happened in France, the same happened in Russia, the same happens everywhere. You want to kill an economy? Eliminate progressive taxes and give all the money to rich people. It's not complicated.
wormwood says
Yes. My disability check has been getting smaller and smaller while food stamps barely buy beer anymore. What's wrong with this country?
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iwog says
lol, just because the free-market sound money system doesn't fit with your political leanings, you just reject it blindly as bull-shit without even considering the appropriate causes for the depressions.
All depressions are engineered....wealth disparity is caused by very few people privileged to control the system. wealth disparity is a consequence.
You're trying to fix the symptom, I am trying to fix the root-cause...thats pretty much the difference.
iwog says
its already been proved that free market sound money economy is NOT monopoly.
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austrian_man says
I have an outstanding knowledge of historical events. To claim every depression is engineered is an astounding assertion which in some cases implies that those in power actually took actions to cause their own heads to be cut off.
You've made no effort whatsoever to support this claim (although I keep prodding you with historical examples of my own) therefore it rests ENTIRELY on a blind assertion of fact. Why do you think you can simply dictate the truth when others are going to such great lengths to prove their views are valid???
austrian_man says
Your "fix" will get people killed. Your fix always gets people killed. You really think this song and dance hasn't been tried yet? Your premise is wrong therefore your conclusions are wrong therefore your fix is wrong. Andrew Jackson (here we go again with REAL proof) slaughtered the second attempt at a central bank. By 1837 the money supply had shrunk and the country was thrown into a severe depression that lasted until 1844. NOTHING, and I mean NOTHING in history supports ANY of your views on the economy. NOTHING!
austrian_man says
Yet you can't say why can you. I invited you and everyone else to improve the economic model of the Monopoly game to better fit the real world. Why haven't you done so?
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iwog says
Please say in which case did the elites get screwed in a depression. They never do. That's the point of bubble blowing and busting.
iwog says
pretty useless when you can't apply the right theory to understand cause/effect.
iwog says
I am accusing the Fed to be the primary reason for bubbles. OK answer this question: Who is responsible for the housing bubble? I am asking for the root-cause. Not the peripheral people who took advantage and made the bubble worse.
iwog says
Truth is I am backing my claims with solid facts. Which is why it stands on its own and no one else other than you with your stupid reasons on the causes of depression are trying to defend a hopeless cause. Any analysis that's relying on weak fundamentals require the person defending it, go great lengths. You have to do it, because your views are myopic and serve to distort the truth.
iwog says
Again history distortion going on here. Andrew Jackson did not want the banks to issue paper notes for payments, which is backed by nothing. So he issued the specie circular, which drove out all the bad money (Gresham's law in action) and caused the panic-struck people to hoard. Once again, the bankers are the primary cause for the problem. why on earth would they lend beyond their reserves? answer: that is how they make their money...they are parasites...they make wealth by staking a claim on future human labor (claim on future human labor = debt).
debt should never be seen as a good thing, yet the bankers have deluded the people to think that it is a wonderful thing. When the debt spiral is trying to unwind, they won't even let it stop. Economy trying to heal itself of the malinvestment is a problem. Why? Why can't the bankers stop making more debt? Answer this question.
iwog says
You want to take a pure chance event game and model the real world, which is much more complex. people don't take risks with their capital based on pure chance. Although Monopoly is what is going on right now, thanks to your beloved central bank. They encourage speculation and borrowing, more than saving!
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austrian_man says
When you can explain why every game of Monopoly ever played fails, and when you can explain the fundamental difference between a game of Monopoly and the real economy, I'll listen to your reasoning.
My experience has been that genuine economic models are toxic to idealists and they will never discuss them.
austrian_man says
Jackson did exactly what you would have advocated, and we got a depression. A long one. Your takeaway from this event was that banks caused it? Cop out. Why not admit that returning to a strict gold standard caused it? That's the truth isn't it?
austrian_man says
Correct, however you've got a serious problem. There aren't any bubbles from 1933 to 1980. We had a well run sustainable economy WITH fed intervention.
Do you know when we have depressions and asset bubbles? When federal oversight is at its minimum. Explain it please.
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austrian_man says
I see, so which solid fact supports an Austrian economic system? I don't recall you presenting any.
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austrian_man says
I wouldn't argue the Fed doesn't share some responsibility, but it's not the primary cause. There have been as many, if not more, asset bubbles before the FED as after:
Tulips, South Sea Company, Railroads, etc.
austrian_man says
The cause was clearly the ability of banks to sell mortgages no matter how crappy the loans. Lending standards went to hell. Low interest rates were probably a contributing factor, but not the main cause.
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iwog says
OK iwog. let's deal with an appropriate definition of monopoly. I think we can agree that a single seller in a given industry can be said to be monopoly. correct? I think when you say Monopoly is bad, you actually need to make a distinction between a coercive monopoly and just an economic monopoly. Economic monopoly (meaning no other competition for the seller) is not inherently evil -- I mean if the single seller makes the most efficient product at low cost, he gets the most profit. Without regulation, a single seller being alone in the industry for too long is practically impossible as capital acts as a regulator in itself. Capital will seek the maximum rate of return, which means that more people will be driven to the industry and thereby put more pressure on that seller and drive down the prices.
All monopolies formed through some form of government coercion are evil. When Government comes in and prevents competition from occurring, it messes up the inherent nature of the free market to favor the consumer. It instead starts favoring the producer, so we have these big giants developed at the favor of the Government. You can argue that what if the seller got big enough and bribed the Government into favoring him? Well, then Government has engaged in corruption of the free market enterprise. It is not the free market's problem, it is the government's problem.
iwog says
Instead of saying this, you might have as well said printing money makes one more wealthier...LOL...seriously? banks caused it. you are the intellectual cop-out here because you seem lost on the true definition of money.
iwog says
respectfully disagree. Inflation ran very high during this time, eroding people who were savers. There were continuous wars -- world war, cold war activities, vietnam war, korean war. Wars can give the illusion of prosperity because there is a LOT of money printing involved lol.
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iwog wrote
I still disagree with your logic, but the trend lines are smiling at you this week.
There's still time, and I'm still betting against you.
Earnings are out in a week or two, but no matter how good they are, the stock price rarely reacts positively.
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tatupu70 says
The above statement is contradictory to the statement below.
tatupu70 says
If banks are responsible, and the bank's bank (The Fed) sets/controls the market interest rate, who's at fault? Remember, there is NOTHING federal about the Federal Reserve. It is basically a consortium of private banks. Answer this question: how do banks make money? Well, through issuing more debt. When issuing more debt is your incentive to earn more, then you will issue debt to infinity. Why would the central bank loosen the noose on monetary policy for the private banks? The TBTF banks own and dictate the monetary policy in this country.
tatupu70 says
South sea company bubble cause: Government war spending by England. (central planning by the government)
RailRoads: The Bank of England cut interest rates, making government bonds less attractive investments, and existing railway companies' shares began to boom as they moved ever-increasing amounts of cargo and people, making people willing to invest in new railways. (central planning by the central bank)
Tulip mania: See this paper (http://www.econ.ucla.edu/thompson/Document97.pdf) as always, Government meddles with the market.
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austrian_man says
But monetary policy had only a very small, if any, role in the debacle. And the federal reserve system had no role in underwriting standards. Hell--it was savings and loans that were the worst offenders.
austrian_man says
I think it was Twain that said--To a man with a hammer, everything looks like a nail.
Food for thought.
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tatupu70 says
How? That is the root...without which all the sloppiness at the bank level couldn't have occurred.
tatupu70 says
I quote actual historical references and you choose to be blind to it...and the ignorance continues.
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austrian_man says
OK--I give up. There will always be something you can blame. Wars caused bubbles before the Fed, but they stopped bubbles after the Fed.
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Santa Cruz, CA
Apple is making a deal with Chinamobile to sell them iPhones. Find out for yourself how many subscribers Chinamobile has. You do the math.
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Regarding the concerns:
- ipad clones getting very good
^-- I don't think the clones are that good. It can't replace ipad
- Google is entering the market
^-- Yes, Google is there but I played with several different tablet. They don't have what Apple has. The User Experience and the way the ipad device touches the user's heart & mind. Google don't have 'it'.
- iphone and droid sales currently about even
^-- iPhone don't have to grow tremulously, just steadily will just be fine for Apple to be very profitable
- product shortages for apple coming
^-- Not a bad thing, it drives demand and higher revenue. I am sure they know the pros and cons of factory ramp-up. So, this is priced in already (to me)
- chart looks identical to Google in late 2007
^-- Past result from a different company cannot be used to judge Apple. They have a very different philosophy behind what they do.
I have both Apple & Google stocks and I think they will both prosper. Nokia, RIMM, Motorola etc, I don't know..
Long on Apple & Google.
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Thunderlips, I have been to China. There are 1000 million poor people. There are still 300 million who have a few bucks to spend.
Having seen human nature in other situations, people who have had less in life are MORE brand conscious than you or I are.
I for example can own a virginmobile android phone and do not care, but my friends in China all want Apple. My father and my neice and nephew are also unsatisfied with anything less than Apple.
My friend in Mexico was ecstatic with her little iPod I bought a couple of Christmases ago and gave her.
My Chinese girlfriend from Shanghai told me that it seems crazy to her how Chinese struggle to buy Apple products. But, she herself is also extremely brand conscious. She will give her parents in Shanghai an Apple computer so she can video chat with them, although any crummy windows paperweight will suffice. She would not insult them with a Dell hunk of junk.
Apple will go to at least $500/share in a few years. Depending on Jobs' health, it could be $1000 in a few more.
Women decide in China what is bought in the household. For better or worse,a guy in China must shuck out the dough if he has it.
Think about it, has your girlfriend ever asked you if you had paid for your retirement or health insurance or PG&E before she requested the lobster at that restaurant?
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I've heard Chinese women were tough, but I never knew they were this tough.
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China cheap labors are not going away soon. I don't think China bubble will burst anytime before 2020. That is my conservative prediction. Here are my reasons:
1. Lots of "develop-able" lands still available in the major cities still. They won't run out of lands and drive up housing price in an uncontrollable way 'yet'
2. China government is a dictatorship government. They can totally control the market inflat or deflat. They own the banks, they have controlling power in contruction companies, they own the land. In another words, they set the price.
3. From my observation, Mainland Chinese people are very submissive, too submissive. When the housing prices are so crazily overpriced, they won't necessarily speak up or boycott, or no way to. It's communist country. They will just quietly try to make more money in order to get enough downpayment.
4. The goal of every Chinese adult is pretty much the same: "Make as much money as fast as possible in anyway I can so I can buy houses."
5. Private contruction company work CLOSELY with the government and they always negotiate behind close doors on how to re-collect lands from the poor and build skyscrapers with it. They have full control to fill the demand.
The housing bubble is still has a long way to go. It's still on the upward trend.
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6. Chinese won't change their minds, they have already decided that an empty apartment in an empty new city is a good "investment".
7. Chinese do not have access to other investments, e.g. mutual funds.
8. Chinese reinforce each other and independent thought is uncommon, i.e. "everyone else is buying empty apartments, I need to do so also."
9. Chinese know that many stocks in China are a scam, a la Sinoforest.
10. Chinese women decide what is done with money in Shanghai and other cities in China. There are fewer women than men, women call the shots. Men do whatever it takes.
11. In Shanghai it's common for the woman to have A. all the money B. man cooks etc. "The husband washes the woman's panties."
12. I dated a woman from Shanghai. She would work 7 days a week, 10 hours per day to make a bad money decision and later would never ever say she made any mistake of any kind. "I was wrong" or "I made a mistake" may be impossible for a Chinese woman to say.
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How did short plays go?
I have been on vacation almost a month not watching stocks.
But pleased to see my AAPL doing fine.
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Vicente says
I'm guessing that's a rhetorical question? Or just a poke with a sharp stick?
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clambo says
This is true in many foreign countries, particularly developing countries. The reason is that they are used to such crap quality products from local manufacturers. When they see a brand name on something, it can be a proxy for quality, and once people figure out a brand, they stick with it. It's similar for Sony products. You can't just get someone a Panasonic walkman (they still make those overseas, I believe, although I believe they don't sell them in the US any more) or discman, or they'll say, "my dumbass cousin got me a cheap piece of crap"; you have to get them the Sony brand, even if you get them the cheapest base model Sony vs. a fully loaded other brand. I've noticed similar things about iPhones, although a lot of foreigners don't realize that you can't get iPhones here without a contract without a much higher price.
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Iwog how much did you lose on that gamble?
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=AAPL&ql=1
news came out today that their profit doubled.
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Apple was my first stock I ever bought in 1996 for my Roth IRA. 2k was my initial investment. Unfortunately I've sold about 1/3 of my shares throughout the years. Still I'm not complaining about my 1300% return over 15 years. Not bad for my 2nd best investment.
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inga_feller says
Well I wanted to see if iwog pulled the eject handles before the blip or if he went down with his plane
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masayako2456 says
Good luck with your Google...
http://www.wordstream.com/articles/most-expensive-keywords
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I always learn something new here. The #20th highest CPC on El Goog is 'Cord Blood'.
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Chinamobile has 600 million subscribers, and Apple is making a phone to sell to them. Oh boy.
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Vicente says
He mentioned that downside wasn't that big so if he lost he didn't lose much.
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Vicente says
iwog says
I made more than enough on the $350 calls to cover the other bets. They expired worthless back in May.
Overall I'll make a couple of thousand. Not a jackpot, but not a loss either.
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Organizations that act like they're on Top of the World, Top of Their Game, brash enough to take on Big Showy Initiatives like Communist China hosting the Olympics, or Apple erecting a showpiece HQ on some of the most expensive land in California, sound like they've reached their peak and so the only way to go from here is in decline.
I will never forget the broadcast I heard a decade ago on NPR, about how we had achieved a new era of Pax Americana, an Era of The American Empire.
Eerily, the date of the broadcast was September 10, 2001.
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=1128633
Thomas Donnelly
* Deputy Executive Director, Project for the New American Century
Joseph Nye
Victor Davis Hanson
*Author of several books most recently, Carnage and Culture: Landmark Battles in the Rise of Western Power (Doubleday, 2001)
*Professor of Greek, California State University, Fresno
The Unites States has military forces in many countries around the world. And despite promises to cut back on military commitments, President Bush has decided to maintain the U.S. force in countries like the Balkans. Is it time to abandon euphemisms and hail the establishment of the American Empire?
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What are you going to do with all that money you'll gain?
People always wants their money to work for them, so I'm assuming that you're not going to stash your cash between your mattresses or rest it in the bank where it earns less interest than inflation.
When the economy was doing well people placed their money in housing. When housing started to turn they cashed out and placed it into the stock market. When the stock market crashed, they placed it in gold. People always needs a sure thing to place their money in.
I'll tell you where I'll place my money if it lands on my lap... Apple.
(LOL...you know I'm joking right :-) ... the best of luck with your ventures)
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pseudosea7 says
Thats worse than putting it under the mattress.
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Steve Jobs resigns as the CEO
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Apple-says-Steve-Jobs-apf-3667841820.html?x=0&.v=4
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I picked a bad day to stop sniffing glue.