Every day the realestate price is going higher and higher never seen anything like it 1 year ago you could not sell the home for 1.3 Mil now it gets blown out for 2.2 and more in my area
Vancouver Canada Boiling Hot Real estate Market
By westparkestates Follow Tue, 17 May 2011, 5:13pm 20,730 views 44 comments
Watch (1) Share
Quote
Permalink Like Dislike « First « Previous Viewing Comments 5-44 of 44 Last » See most liked comments
|
westparkestates is moderator of this thread. |
Follow
Befriend (1)
2 threads
73 comments
San Diego, CA
It's not just Vancouver. I'm here in Toronto and have been the past few weeks and housing prices here seem really expensive for the income levels. I'm not sure this trend can keep up.
I'm seeing absolute dumps going for $500,000. And the houses are so close together in many neighborhoods here. I'm in a rental in a nice area and I can literally stick my hand out of a window and almost touch the neighbor's house.
These kind of bubble prices remind me of the USA a few years ago.
Follow
Befriend
1 threads
3 comments
Newport Beach, CA
Canada is currently in a delusional bubble due to low mortgage rates. The bubble will burst eventually and the fall-out will be tremendous. Most Canadians are living well beyond their means. The party will be over soon, and I predict the crash will be as bad or worse than the current U.S. recession/depression.
Follow
Befriend (13)
107 threads
3,864 comments
justme says
bubble, some Canadian type of NAR speculation.
Follow
Befriend
1 comments
Our Government should limit foreign investment and speculation in real estate. Man of us have been driven out thanks to the Chinese and our short-sighted Government. Vancouver is becoming unlivable. What do people do if they only make $60-80K a year? Live in a 500 square foot box? Commute from Aldergove?
Follow
Befriend
1 comments
It's flight capital. The Chinese (and buyers in several other nations) are trying to put their cash (a) into hard assets which will retain some value in an economic or currency meltdown, and (b) into a place where their own government can't confiscate it with the stroke of a pen. If these folks have to make a run for it, buying houses gives them a place to go where they will have a roof over their heads.
That's especially true for the Chinese, because pools of wealth were created there by corrupt local administrations greenlighting development in exchange for massive fees.
Yes, the Chinese could put their money into foreign bank deposits, but they're too smart to trust the foreign governments not to repatriate the money if China demands it.
Follow
Befriend
3 threads
106 comments
San Diego, CA
It should be interesting to see how this unwinds. Will a crash in the Chinese or Australian housing markets send an even bigger wave of buyers to Canada? People aren't rational; when their investments fail in other bubbles instead of thinking about what happened and trying to avoid making the same mistake twice they'll seek out another bubble market that's "different because..." and try again.
But it doesn't matter where the money is coming from, domestic or foreign, a bubble is a bubble. Eventually there will be no greater fool to be found and it will come crashing down.
Follow
Befriend
3 threads
106 comments
San Diego, CA
JO says
Rent, like many people now wish they did during the US bubble. There will be an opportunity to buy after it all comes crashing down.
Follow
Befriend (7)
70 threads
1,151 comments
Shawn says
Interesting possibility.
Shawn says
There that though...
Follow
Befriend
1 threads
5 comments
Hi Thank you for the feed back I remember the 80s and 90s and this is so much more dangerous I just look at the commercial space for lease and turn over that tells you everything when you go to the court house you hear of many more foreclosures than you did say 3 years back out side of Vancouver is much slower
Follow
Befriend
14 threads
168 comments
Brooklyn, NY
"Unlike London or New York, “we don’t have enough jobs with high
incomes to justify” the home prices, said Ladner"
"Vancouver’s median home price of C$602,000 ($618,000) was 9.5 times the annual median household income of C$63,100, the group said in a study released Jan. 24. Canada had a 4.6 national multiple, making it “seriously unaffordable,” while the U.S. at 3.3 was “moderately unaffordable,” the study showed. To be affordable, the multiple must be 3 or less."
the 2 most important points of the article.
Follow
Befriend
34 comments
It does seem to be different in Vancouver. I used to own several homes there. Unfortunately I sold them to purchase in Seattle when I moved. Dumbest thing I ever did. The last Vancouver home is now worth more than twice what I sold it for in 2007, the house I bought in Seattle I short sold for 1/2 my purchase price.
The dynamics of the Vancouver market are: many foreign investors, most homes have a rental unit in them to make them more affordable (constructing one will net you $50-100k more on resale). Most Vancouverites who don't already own can't afford to buy, it's definitely a move-up market with the foreigners coming in to keep the cycle moving. This has been going on since 1990 with Hong Kong reversion to communism, and amazingly hasn't stopped. $250k home in 1990 now worth well over $4M
Follow
Befriend (5)
10 threads
2,329 comments
Is there any reason why the Vancouver bubble will not burst?
Follow
Befriend
19 threads
1,536 comments
Los Angeles, CA
People flock there for the mediteranean climate, right?
Follow
Befriend
1 threads
3,248 comments
There are certainly fortresses in Vancouver as well, and I don't see their price crashing. Hoods like Burnaby are a different story.
Any place on the receiving end of Chinese/Indian money share the same characteristics like the Bay Area. Just remember, there are 1.3 billion Chinese and it only takes the top 200K of them to fill up the supply of the best neighborhoods. Vancouver, Syndey, Bay Area, LA all have neighborhoods that showing extreme resilience because of that. It doesn't take many, just the top few hundred thousand or a few million Chinese to fill up the supply of the best spots in the few Asian immigrant friendly cities in the world.
Vancouver is more like Monte Carlo, if you look at the income of the local people, none of them can afford all these multi-million mansions. But the best spots are not meant for locals anyway.
Follow
Befriend
2 threads
4 comments
Baltimore, MD
Where do these Chinese get all of their money from? Factory owners? If you are able to become so wealthy under such a system in China then one would think you would know how to invest in non-bubble investments. At least they know that real estate in China is a bad investment.
Follow
Befriend (5)
27 threads
2,073 comments
OO says
Really? What neighborhoods in the Bay Area and LA are showing "extreme resilience" because of foreign buyers? Do you have any data showing this?
Follow
Befriend
1 threads
3,248 comments
Look at it this way.
Essentially there are 1 billion + slaves out there who will work for anything. If you can escape the slave class and do cost arbitrage on them and get in between outsourcing, you will be golden. Not necessarily factory owners, but Chinese bureaucrats, real estate developers, or even bankers and accountants, sales and marketing people etc.
The wealth distribution in China is very skewed, so if you are top of the pyramid, you take much more than your fair share. Now only a very tiny fraction of the population get to be the top, but since there are so many people out there, it is not difficult to find hundreds of thousands of wealthy people.
Follow
Befriend
1 threads
3,248 comments
There are no data showing whether the buyer is foreign or not. But anecdotally, there are lots of cash Chinese buyers in San Marino and Arcadia, and you can look at the population composition, same for Cupertino, Palo Alto in the Bay Area.
Now, you realize that every year, only about 5% of the total inventory goes on market. So let's say, you have 10,000 houses altogether in San Marino, it doesn't take 10,000 Chinese cash-rich buyers to support the market. All you need is 500 of them each year.
Follow
Befriend (5)
27 threads
2,073 comments
"There are no data showing whether the buyer is foreign or not. "
Right, so you are basically making the same unsupported claim that most realtors do. People said this about the overpriced condos in SF, like One Rincon Hill, and few of the anecdotes have turned out to be true ("I went to a homeowners' meeting, and half the people were speaking Chinese...").
Also, if you're trying to cite the Mercury News for Cupertino, I'm sad to say they made a huge error. The foreign born population in Cupertino according to the 2000 census was 42.8%, not 22% (http://www.mercurynews.com/sunnyvale/ci_17798040 vs. http://www.bayareacensus.ca.gov/cities/Cupertino.htm).
I get that you only need buyers on the margins, because that's how the housing market works, but is there evidence?
Follow
Befriend
1 threads
3,248 comments
Corn,
sure, believe all you can, but so far the fortresses are still fortresses, and there are plenty of cash transactions. The perma bears on this site have been talking down the fortresses forever thinking that they can buy houses in more coveted neighborhoods on a dime, I am just saying it ain't gonna happen.
I myself have been waiting all these years to trade up in west valley neighborhoods like Portola Valley and Los Altos Hills into one of these mansions, I realized it probably is never gonna happen, because there are far more richer people ahead of me.
Follow
Befriend (5)
27 threads
2,073 comments
Huh, that's funny, I've been watching the same neighborhoods, and the "fortresses" haven't been immune. People keep talking cash transactions, but the statistics only support cash transactions on the low end from so-called investors buying up cheap properties (e.g. outer East Bay for Bay Area).
Follow
Befriend
1 threads
7 comments
OO says
I can attest to this "all-cash", 110%(100K over price) phenomenon in area straddling 85(zipcodes 95014, 95129...) Some of the homes have serious Section-1 issues, still got swooped up in 2-3 days(all cash)
Follow
Befriend
1 comments
yes, a lot of chinese purchases are cash deals, so the leverage factor in most of these communities are lessened. sure, they can crash, but remember these people believe in the value of real assets. also, if they happen to be in great school districts no amount of reduced valuations will make them move as they value education above almost everything else. i live in los angeles and we're definitely not doing well on the real estate front. but you only have to look in nice communities that have a large chinese population such as south pasadena, arcadia and san marino to see that prices have held steady somewhat (i'm not saying theyre immune to downturns) but they still attract new money from asia. but also look at the schools - this is the number one criteria for them.
Follow
Befriend
35 threads
75 comments
San Diego, CA
The Chinese-Rich looks at money differently from us mortal. Their portfolio goes up and down in $millions a day. Us mortal would cash out that $millions right away and retire for good.
When the Chinese-Rich buy in Vancouver, they will not be bothered by any drop in prices, say $500k. The key for them is to buy something in Vancouver to park their cash. This is better than having to pay protection corruption payoffs to the local government to hold their cash in place. (The local government knows how much they can get fees from the Rich).
Now, this is quiet different from the bums and creeps that flowed into SoCal in the late 90s and 2000s. No money but wanting to get rich with real estate, taking out HELOC to live high.
So there really is paradigm shift in Canada. The Chinese-Rich is coming.
Follow
Befriend
1 threads
5 comments
Hi Thank you for the help
Follow
Befriend (5)
27 threads
2,073 comments
desibaba says
Okay desibaba, how many 110% sales do you see for Cupertino in April?
http://www.julianalee.com/reinfo/sold-CU.htm
I see:
10) 10568 Lonna Ln
18) 19971 Merritt Dr
Honorable mention:
20) 7578 Normandy Wy -- not quite 10%, but $100K over
That's 2 out of 41 sales that meet your 110% number, and 3 out of 41 that meet $100K over, which doesn't suggest this is a huge trend. It suggests that those houses were probably underpriced to begin with.
Follow
Befriend (5)
27 threads
2,073 comments
desibaba says
I'm calling busted on this 2-3 day thing as well. Let's look at DOM:
10699 Larry Wy -- 11 DOM, sold at asking
10266 Beardon Dr -- 16 DOM, sold at asking
21367 Meteor Dr -- 12 DOM, sold at asking
10454 Scenic Ct -- 17 DOM, sold for $40K more ($1.418 vs. 1.378)
10303 Scenic Bl -- 12 DOM, sold for $71K more ($1.97 vs. $1.899)
5 out of 41, with average DOM at 53 days.
Most people go by what realtors say, but don't ever look at hard stats.
Follow
Befriend (31)
34 threads
2,612 comments
San Jose, CA
Premium
westparkestates says
Sounds like this market is close to the top now. The moment this market stops going up, it's time to price your home slightly below FMV and sell it. Watch it fall and buy a home back in 3 years at a discount :)
Follow
Befriend
3 threads
106 comments
San Diego, CA
bubblesitter says
Because it's different here....
Follow
Befriend
30 threads
555 comments
San Carlos, CA
Shawn says
Well said. It's different here too.
Follow
Befriend (5)
10 threads
2,329 comments
Shawn says
Yeah right!
Follow
Befriend (2)
34 threads
3,497 comments
MoneySheep says
It is certainly possibly that *some* rich chinese cash buyers will not care enough to create fire sale conditions if prices start to drop.
But what about the regular mortgaged buyers, and their lenders. I bet they will care.
Follow
Befriend (6)
5 threads
2,368 comments
justme says
They may care but then there'll be another wealthy foreigner to step right in to secure a foothold in a Fortress location that they perceive has more political stability.
Follow
Befriend
7 threads
36 comments
It's so funny that finally when china is poised to take over as the next financial powerhouse of the world, those elite who stand to benefit are instead bailing out to buy a 600k home somewhere to protect their assets. Yeah, that makes sense.
People please support your arguments with data, otherwise go and buy a house before the Chinese own them all!!!,
Follow
Befriend (5)
10 threads
2,329 comments
ih8alameda says
In a few decades Chinese will take over all real estate around the world. LOL.
Follow
Befriend
5 comments
All US (and Canadian) women need to buy as much property as they can afford, right now....
Follow
Befriend
95 threads
472 comments
Kent, WA
John Bailo's website
Global warming will sink Canadian real estate.
Right now 90 percent of the people live in the first 100 miles north of the US border. This band contains all the major cities and transportation.
However, with rising temperatures, millions of acres will open up and become liveable for the average person, plunging the entire North American real estate market into a tailspin unseen in history.
Follow
Befriend (6)
5 threads
2,368 comments
John Bailo says
They are STILL skiing up in the Sierras as there's so much snow deposited this season.
Global warming my ass.
No wonder the Liberalati have changed from calling it "global warming" to "Climate Change."
Follow
Befriend
35 threads
5,700 comments
Bellingham, WA
sybrib says
"Along with elevated temperatures, many climate models predict more precipitation, too. The mountain climate response to these changes is that snowpack will first increase with the additional precipitation. However, this trend will reverse as higher temperatures raise the snowline (Barry, 1990)."
http://www.jurisense.com/snowpack.htm
This paper is from 1998. It's just a MA thesis so it's not authoritative, but it does illustrate how global warming can possibly result in counter-intuitive real-world trends.
Follow
Befriend (3)
14 comments
Calistoga, CA
The US is a failed state, and a police state as well. China is also a police state, but prosperous. Anyone with money and brains will get the hell out of the US and China. And Canada is a smart destination. Even with cold weather, the level of civility and freedom in Canada are reflected in the value of real estate.