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Inflation-Adjusted Prestige Index for the Bay Area is back to 2000

By corntrollio   Follow   Thu, 2 Jun 2011, 3:50pm   2,508 views   46 comments
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Here's what I wrote in another thread, but I thought it was worth starting a new thread:

What's interesting to note is that certain indices are back to 2000 with respect to San Francisco/Bay Area when adjusting for inflation. A good example is the Prestige Index, which First Republic reports:
http://www.firstrepublic.com/lend/residential/prestigeindex/sanfrancisco.html

The First Republic Prestige Home Index™ is the first statistical model of its kind customized to measure changes in homes valued at more than $1 million in key California urban markets. Some common features of luxury homes in the Index: 3,000 to 6,000 square feet, three to six bedrooms, and three to six bathrooms. San Francisco Bay Area properties include a cross-section of luxury homes in Alamo, Atherton, Belvedere, Danville, Healdsburg, Hillsborough, Lafayette, Los Altos, Los Gatos, Mill Valley, Moraga, Orinda, Palo Alto, Piedmont, Portola Valley, Ross, St. Helena, San Francisco, Saratoga, Sonoma, Tiburon and Woodside.

This index monitors the upper end of the housing market in the most expensive Bay Area locales. Of course, the dotcom boom caused its own local real estate bubble for the top end, and whether the tech boom permanently adjusted fundamentals here is still an open question. The Prestige Index is based on Case-Shiller data.

If you adjust for inflation, the current index number for Q1 of 2011 is between Q1 and Q2 of 2000. $2,491,950 in 2011 is $1.908M in 2000 dollars. Q2 of 2000 was $1,942,700 and Q1 of 2000 was $1,826,029. The inflation-adjusted 2007 peak of $3.085M is $3.346M in 2011 dollars, so we are down more than 25% from peak.

HT to "sfrenegade" on SocketSite who ran this analysis.

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1. APOCALYPSEFUCK is Shostakovich Follow Befriend (28) 169 threads 4,155 comments Premium

   7   11:45am Sat 4 Jun 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   And at the end of Wave 4: CANNIBAL ANARCHY!

2. B.A.C.A.H. Follow Befriend (6) 5 threads 2,359 comments

   8   11:55am Sat 4 Jun 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   dunnross says The final wave 3 decline will take prices back to 1975, Maybe. But not in The Fortresses along the Left Coast. 1975 was before they were minting new wealthy elites who coveted those Fortresses, in India and Communist China (thank you very much, outsourcers), and the purchasing power of our "nominal" currency was not going down in relation to theirs. Also there was no H-1 floodgates then.

3. dunnross Follow Befriend 28 threads 1,489 comments San Jose, CA Premium

   9   1:06pm Sat 4 Jun 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected   sybrib says dunnross says The final wave 3 decline will take prices back to 1975, Maybe. But not in The Fortresses along the Left Coast. 1975 was before they were minting new wealthy elites who coveted those Fortresses, in India and Communist China (thank you very much, outsourcers), and the purchasing power of our “nominal” currency was not going down in relation to theirs. Also there was no H-1 floodgates then. In 1975, Detroit was the Fortress Area.

4. dunnross Follow Befriend 28 threads 1,489 comments San Jose, CA Premium

   10   1:12pm Sat 4 Jun 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Protected   ptiemann says Prices have a long way to drop, there is no real reason why an old 3/2 in a smelly place like Santa Clara costs $600k when you could get the same e.g. in beautiful Las Vegas for $80k. Only temporary factors like high paying jobs and school district. The jobs disappear already as thomas.wong points out periodically (See his favorite link about the “shrinking silicon valley”) and the good schools .. will become mediocre once the tigermoms and families have packed and returned to their home country. I strongly suggest renting, even though the monthly rent payment may be higher than a mortgage payment. You have more security as a renter. The schools are already sub-mediocre. If home prices around the country were truly in proportion to the quality of schools (as a lot of the bulls claim), bay area prices would be already cheaper than Detroit.

5. B.A.C.A.H. Follow Befriend (6) 5 threads 2,359 comments

   11   1:20pm Sat 4 Jun 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   dunnross says Detroit was the Fortress Baloney ! Newly wealthy folks from Asia (or any other places) did not covet buying a SFH in Detroit. Not in 1975, not in 1875, not never.

6. dunnross Follow Befriend 28 threads 1,489 comments San Jose, CA Premium

   12   1:25pm Sat 4 Jun 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Protected   sybrib says dunnross says Detroit was the Fortress Baloney ! Newly wealthy folks from Asia (or any other places) did not covet buying a SFH in Detroit. Not in 1975, not in 1875, not never. No, but newly wealthy folks from California did.

7. B.A.C.A.H. Follow Befriend (6) 5 threads 2,359 comments

   13   1:40pm Sat 4 Jun 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Well lessee, some portion of Californians, 20 M at the time, coveted Detroit in 1975. Even though I never did meet anyone here in the Bay Area like that in those days, though there was a girl in my high class who came here with her family a couple of years after that from Detroit. The newly wealthy portion of 20 M Californians coveted Detroit in 1975? I am skeptical but OK If you say so. Hardly the same numbers of the newly wealthy portion of the 2 B Asians who coveted the Left Coast Fortress communities.

8. dunnross Follow Befriend 28 threads 1,489 comments San Jose, CA Premium

   14   2:23pm Sat 4 Jun 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   sybrib says Well lessee, some portion of Californians, 20 M at the time, coveted Detroit in 1975. Even though I never did meet anyone here in the Bay Area like that in those days, though there was a girl in my high class who came here with her family a couple of years after that from Detroit. The newly wealthy portion of 20 M Californians coveted Detroit in 1975? I am skeptical but OK If you say so. Hardly the same numbers of the newly wealthy portion of the 2 B Asians who coveted the Left Coast Fortress communities. There is actually more wealth going to Asia from California now, then coming from Asia. In fact several of my Chinese co-workers have already picked up their families and went back to China, because there are more opportunities to make money, there. Why would wealth want to come here, if Asia is where all the action is?

9. B.A.C.A.H. Follow Befriend (6) 5 threads 2,359 comments

   15   2:25pm Sat 4 Jun 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Could be. Probably The Fortresses will do just fine if the net in the margins for the overall state is outbound. Or maybe those are just the subset of ones who can't stomach Fortress Arithmetic, and heaven forbid living somewhere in our region outside of The Fortress Walls.

10. dunnross Follow Befriend 28 threads 1,489 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    16   2:34pm Sat 4 Jun 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   sybrib says Could be. Probably The Fortresses will do just fine if the net in the margins for the overall state is outbound. Or maybe those are just the subset of ones who can’t stomach Fortress Arithmetic, and heaven forbid living somewhere in our region outside of The Fortress Walls. So, why would they go back to Asia, if you say that arithmetic is even worse there? I talked to some of those people who left, and they all say that Bay Area reputation as some kind of a "glamor" city is nothing but a big myth. The fact is, Bay Area no longer has a monopoly on tech jobs, or good education, or the Sun, or anything else, for that matter. The collapse of the Bay Area prestige, is really, not at all, unlike Detroit after the collapse of the auto industry. This is quite a turn-around from the denial folks like you who still think that Bay Area is really something "special".

11. B.A.C.A.H. Follow Befriend (6) 5 threads 2,359 comments

    17   2:44pm Sat 4 Jun 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)   dunnross says if you say that arithmetic is even worse Did I say that? The Fortress communities are indeed bargains for wealthy people from crowded canyons of Shanghai and Mumbai and other such places all over the world. But they are not bargains for the Petty Bourgeois folks from anywhere, not Petty Bourgeois from Asia nor Detroit nor Chicago nor even (like myself) the Bay Area, who are "not wealthy enough" for the Basic Arithmetic of The Fortress to make sense. But that's OK if you don't lose your face by renting (like you) or by living (like me) among the working class folks in a non-Fortress neighborhood like me.

12. dunnross Follow Befriend 28 threads 1,489 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    18   3:34pm Sat 4 Jun 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected   sybrib says dunnross says if you say that arithmetic is even worse Did I say that? The Fortress communities are indeed bargains for wealthy people from crowded canyons of Shanghai and Mumbai and other such places all over the world. But they are not bargains for the Petty Bourgeois folks from anywhere, not Petty Bourgeois from Asia nor Detroit nor Chicago nor even (like myself) the Bay Area, who are “not wealthy enough” for the Basic Arithmetic of The Fortress to make sense. But that’s OK if you don’t lose your face by renting (like you) or by living (like me) among the working class folks in a non-Fortress neighborhood like me. The Fortress has nothing special to attract these wealthy people to come here. For weather and scenic beauty, they might as well go to the North Coast of Chile where it's warmer and much more scenic. The ocean is too cold for swimming. There aren't many cultural amenities. The business is no longer good here. This is basically a city on it's way out. Why would they like to come here, as opposed to hundreds of other places around the world?

13. B.A.C.A.H. Follow Befriend (6) 5 threads 2,359 comments

    19   3:42pm Sat 4 Jun 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   I don't know about those places. Maybe they are going to those places too. They are also very much attracted to here. Just go drive around The Fortress and see for yourself, or go to the public K-12 and look at the kids.

14. dunnross Follow Befriend 28 threads 1,489 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    20   3:47pm Sat 4 Jun 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Protected   sybrib says I don’t know about those places. Maybe they are going to those places too. They are also very much attracted to here. Just go drive around The Fortress and see for yourself, or go to the public K-12 and look at the kids. That's the point. In some areas like Cupertino, already 75% are from those areas. If only 10% of those people all decided to pick up and go somewhere else, prices would drop like a rock. All your point is making is that this place is already an "Overcrowded Trade", and it's time to dump this "Bay Area Fortress" stock for better pastures someplace else.

15. B.A.C.A.H. Follow Befriend (6) 5 threads 2,359 comments

    21   4:06pm Sat 4 Jun 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   dunnross says your point is making is that this place is already an “Overcrowded Trade”, and it’s time to dump this “Bay Area Fortress” stock for better pastures someplace else. Yep. Besides the Basic Household Arithmetic, there's the Basic School Arithmetic obsession with API. API tracks how ALL the kids did in the school. It does not predict how YOUR kid will do. Funny how some Petty Bourgeois folks in fields like Finance, and engineering PhD's, ignore very basic statistic concepts like mean and distribution when it comes to assessing the Best Value for education. The first order determinant of how their kids will do is who the parents are and the parents' Tiger-Parenting. Even more hilarious is how teachers and school administrators will take all of the credit for the results of the Tiger-Parent ethic, like the Unclothed Emperor all are in awe of how "great" the "schools" and "teachers" are. The reality is that those kids would do just as well in an API index if they were homeschooled on the internet. Like the pages who escorted the unclothed emperor around his village, Realtors pronounce the "awe" of those regal API score schools and the staff there. But dunross, API obsession probably is rooted in some kind of cultural norm. It is hard to undue centuries of genuflection to god of Civil Service Exam standardized tests in a generation or even in a century. Until that happens, they ain't dumpin the "stock".

16. dunnross Follow Befriend 28 threads 1,489 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    22   4:58pm Sat 4 Jun 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   sybrib says But dunross, API obsession probably is rooted in some kind of cultural norm. It is hard to undue centuries of genuflection to god of Civil Service Exam standardized tests in a generation or even in a century. Until that happens, they ain’t dumpin the “stock”. That didn't stop RE prices from crashing before in predominately asian cities like "Hong Kong", Singapour & Tokyo.

17. dunnross Follow Befriend 28 threads 1,489 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    23   5:13pm Sat 4 Jun 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   dunnross says That didn’t stop RE prices from crashing before in predominately asian cities like “Hong Kong”, Singapour & Tokyo. Actually, another deeply-rooted cultural trait of Asians is their attraction to gambling, and, like all gamblers, they start to panic at the first sign of weakness. When the ground starts to shake in these "Fortress" areas, there will be a stampede for the exits, like nothing you've seen.

18. APOCALYPSEFUCK is Shostakovich Follow Befriend (28) 169 threads 4,155 comments Premium

    24   6:09pm Sat 4 Jun 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   They'll all wake up when starving neonazis kick down their front doors and rip out their livers and eat them in front of them.

19. B.A.C.A.H. Follow Befriend (6) 5 threads 2,359 comments

    25   6:29pm Sat 4 Jun 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   ptiemann says They won’t care about their credit as they leave the country. Not so fast. Most of their kids have only ever lived The Fantasy Life in The Fortress; not in places like Communist China (nor in Taiwan with its military obligation).

20. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 272 threads 12,464 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    26   6:31pm Sat 4 Jun 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected   dunnross says In 1975, Detroit was the Fortress Area. No it wasn't. Obviously you've never watched the movie "Roger and Me", which was filmed at the culmination of a generation-long decline of the US automotive industry.

21. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 272 threads 12,464 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    27   6:34pm Sat 4 Jun 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Protected   dunnross says The final wave 3 decline will take prices back to 1975, in nominal terms. At the end of wave 3, all the vapor wealth will be gone, and only a few bottom feeders will be picking up the crums. Right. Prices are going to decline below what a shanty costs in Bogota Columbia. Funny thing about all the money supply charts. They only go up. In fact you proposed your 1974 theory back in 2010, yet since 2010 there is MORE money in the system, not less. I assume that your theory includes lots of vapor wealth being destroyed right now. Please show me a measure of that vapor wealth being destroyed. It sure as hell isn't showing up in people's bank balances. Those just keep going higher.

22. APOCALYPSEFUCK is Shostakovich Follow Befriend (28) 169 threads 4,155 comments Premium

    28   6:40pm Sat 4 Jun 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Protected   When China forecloses on every last note; When the Chinese carry off every last white woman; Detroit will stand as a FORTRESS against Sinoese tyranny in the New World. Freezing cold. A population with nothing to lose. Everyone armed to the teeth. Paradise.

23. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 272 threads 12,464 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    29   6:41pm Sat 4 Jun 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   APOCALYPSEFUCK says When the Chinese carry off every last white woman; Dunno, Chinese women look pretty white to me.

24. xenogear3 Follow Befriend 10 threads 419 comments

    30   7:00pm Sat 4 Jun 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Can the people in Detroit do something else besides the Auto? The house is almost given away now. Shouldn't the economy in Detroit booming because the living cost is low?

25. dunnross Follow Befriend 28 threads 1,489 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    31   7:02pm Sat 4 Jun 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   iwog says dunnross says The final wave 3 decline will take prices back to 1975, in nominal terms. At the end of wave 3, all the vapor wealth will be gone, and only a few bottom feeders will be picking up the crums. Right. Prices are going to decline below what a shanty costs in Bogota Columbia. Funny thing about all the money supply charts. They only go up. In fact you proposed your 1974 theory back in 2010, yet since 2010 there is MORE money in the system, not less. I assume that your theory includes lots of vapor wealth being destroyed right now. Please show me a measure of that vapor wealth being destroyed. It sure as hell isn’t showing up in people’s bank balances. Those just keep going higher. The money supply is going up because the FED is buying up all the worthless paper and pretends like it's actually worth something. The FED is print up new money and giving it to the banks, who, in turn, lend the money to foreign central banks. But all this printed money is not enough to cover up all the losses from worthless RE. None of this money is actually winding up in people's pockets. The total wealth of US citizens is shrinking rapidly. But, if we all move to Iwog's La-La Land and jointly pretend that there are no losses, yes the money supply is going up.

26. dunnross Follow Befriend 28 threads 1,489 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    32   7:22pm Sat 4 Jun 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Protected   iwog says dunnross says The final wave 3 decline will take prices back to 1975, in nominal terms. At the end of wave 3, all the vapor wealth will be gone, and only a few bottom feeders will be picking up the crums. Right. Prices are going to decline below what a shanty costs in Bogota Columbia. Funny thing about all the money supply charts. They only go up. In fact you proposed your 1974 theory back in 2010, yet since 2010 there is MORE money in the system, not less. I assume that your theory includes lots of vapor wealth being destroyed right now. Please show me a measure of that vapor wealth being destroyed. It sure as hell isn’t showing up in people’s bank balances. Those just keep going higher. Japan's money was always going up during their 20 year deflationary cycle. In fact back in 2002 their money supply grew almost 30%. That's because, like their US counterparts, they were only showing showing the profits, and not the liabilities form the RE losses, which lost more than 80% of it's peak value, in big cities.

27. thomas.wong1986 Follow Befriend 16 threads 4,426 comments

    33   11:02pm Sat 4 Jun 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   dunnross says The collapse of the Bay Area prestige, is really, not at all, unlike Detroit after the collapse of the auto industry. This is quite a turn-around from the denial folks like you who still think that Bay Area is really something “special”. When the Auto industry was hit with cheap imports from Japan, the same wave hit Silicon Valley Tech industry. We once produced 70% of world Semiconductors, which powers pretty much everthing these days. The Japanese in both cases dumped their supply below their own production costs to kill off US Auto and HT industries. Detroit was widely publized but the Silicon Valleys outcome wasnt. Why do we still call it "Silicon Wafer" Valley these days when we dont even make it anymore ?

28. xenogear3 Follow Befriend 10 threads 419 comments

    34   2:21am Sun 5 Jun 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   The auto takes 10+ years for people to realize that Japanese cars are better and reliable. The chips only take 2+ years to verify that Chinese electronics are reliable. US got nothing this time. Great Recession #2 is coming.

29. dunnross Follow Befriend 28 threads 1,489 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    35   11:59am Sun 5 Jun 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike   Protected   xenogear3 says The auto takes 10+ years for people to realize that Japanese cars are better and reliable. The chips only take 2+ years to verify that Chinese electronics are reliable. US got nothing this time. Great Recession #2 is coming. No, I don't agree. There will not be another Recession for many years. That's because this one will be a Depression. A Greater Depression.

30. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 272 threads 12,464 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    36   12:09pm Sun 5 Jun 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Protected   dunnross says In fact back in 2002 their money supply grew almost 30%. No it didn't. Where do you get your information anyway?

31. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 272 threads 12,464 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    37   12:10pm Sun 5 Jun 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Protected   dunnross says The money supply is going up because the FED is buying up all the worthless paper and pretends like it’s actually worth something. The FED is print up new money and giving it to the banks, who, in turn, lend the money to foreign central banks. Again....where do you get your information? None of this is counted in the M2 or MZM. I don't know how you form opinions with such flawed data.

32. dunnross Follow Befriend 28 threads 1,489 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    38   4:22pm Sun 5 Jun 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Protected   iwog says dunnross says In fact back in 2002 their money supply grew almost 30%. No it didn’t. Where do you get your information anyway? The growth rate of the money supply was up 30% in year 5-6. You can even see from you graph. But obviously it was never negative. So Japan's money supply was growing, while they had a 20 deflation.

33. dunnross Follow Befriend 28 threads 1,489 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    39   4:28pm Sun 5 Jun 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   iwog says dunnross says The money supply is going up because the FED is buying up all the worthless paper and pretends like it’s actually worth something. The FED is print up new money and giving it to the banks, who, in turn, lend the money to foreign central banks. Again….where do you get your information? None of this is counted in the M2 or MZM. I don’t know how you form opinions with such flawed data. Sure it is. This is coming straight out of wikepedia: In the money supply statistics, central bank money is MB while the commercial bank money is divided up into the M1-M3 components. Generally, the types of commercial bank money that tend to be valued at lower amounts are classified in the narrow category of M1 while the types of commercial bank money that tend to exist in larger amounts are categorized in M2 and M3, with M3 having the largest. So the FED printing money and giving it to the commercial banks, is the only reason why the M2 has been going up. However, none of this money is going into the hands of the people, because, that's not what the banks are doing these day.s

34. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 272 threads 12,464 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    40   5:13pm Sun 5 Jun 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   dunnross says The growth rate of the money supply was up 30% in year 5-6. You can even see from you graph. But obviously it was never negative. So Japan’s money supply was growing, while they had a 20 deflation. Do you have any fricken idea how huge is the massive chasm between what you said originally "In fact back in 2002 their money supply grew almost 30%." and what you changed it to: "The growth rate of the money supply was up 30% in year 5-6"? This very clearly demonstrates why it is impossible to have a conversation with you. dunnross: It's 1000 elephants! Iwog: Bull. dunnross: I SAID it's 1000 mice!

35. dunnross Follow Befriend 28 threads 1,489 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    41   5:53pm Sun 5 Jun 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Protected   iwog says dunnross says The growth rate of the money supply was up 30% in year 5-6. You can even see from you graph. But obviously it was never negative. So Japan’s money supply was growing, while they had a 20 deflation. Do you have any fricken idea how huge is the massive chasm between what you said originally “In fact back in 2002 their money supply grew almost 30%.” and what you changed it to: “The growth rate of the money supply was up 30% in year 5-6″? This very clearly demonstrates why it is impossible to have a conversation with you. dunnross: It’s 1000 elephants! Iwog: Bull. dunnross: I SAID it’s 1000 mice! No, year 10, which is 2002 it was also up 30%. And, as usual, Iwog tries to divert the conversation, away from his own faulty assumption that "Positive growth in money supply reported by the gov-t has nothing to do with people actually getting richer" to petty anal nitpicking.

36. bayhousehunter Follow Befriend 37 comments San Jose, CA

    42   11:00am Mon 6 Jun 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Though I have not yet "seen with my very own eyes" the decline in prices in the "prestige" areas, there are strong indicators from my own observations that prices are indeed dropping even in the so called "Fortress" and "Prestige" areas. - For certain houses that come up for sale in these areas, a look at history on zillow or redfin will show that the prices are below or at the same levels as when some of these very same houses were sold previously in 2003-2004 year frame. - In the past 3 weeks, I came across 2 houses (in 2 "prestige" neighborhoods) that were bought by "all cash purchasers" from mainland china in 09 and now they were dumping them because they found bigger properties to invest in (my take is that they are pulling their money out - the houses were listed slightly below or at the same level as their previous purchase price - that means a 6 figure loss if realtor commission is factored in) - A lot of the old timers in the bay area (I mean the original house owners who are now in their 70s and 80s) are putting their houses on the market and moving out - seems that they fear a big price drop is coming up. - A lot of Mandarin speaking bay area techies have moved to mainland china as the prospects for them over there are phenomenal. I see it in my workplace as well as my neighborhood. I tend to agree that there is more money moving out of here to China than there is coming in the form of real estate investments.

37. bubblesitter Follow Befriend (5) 10 threads 2,329 comments

    43   11:30am Mon 6 Jun 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   dunnross says vapor wealth Haha. I like that.

38. bubblesitter Follow Befriend (5) 10 threads 2,329 comments

    44   11:51am Mon 6 Jun 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   ptiemann says Prices have a long way to drop, there is no real reason why an old 3/2 in a smelly place like Santa Clara costs $600k when you could get the same e.g. in beautiful Las Vegas for $80k. Only temporary factors like high paying jobs and school district. The jobs disappear already as thomas.wong points out periodically (See his favorite link about the “shrinking silicon valley”) and the good schools .. will become mediocre once the tigermoms and families have packed and returned to their home country. I strongly suggest renting, even though the monthly rent payment may be higher than a mortgage payment. You have more security as a renter. Just 500 years into its birth and development and you think USA will be like this forever? You need to learn history in terms longer time span(decades,centuries etc.). If there is going to be a downfall, at some point there must be a beginning way before it actually happens. :)

39. corntrollio Follow Befriend (5) 27 threads 2,073 comments

    45   12:27pm Mon 6 Jun 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   sybrib says But not in The Fortresses along the Left Coast. 1975 was before they were minting new wealthy elites who coveted those Fortresses, in India and Communist China (thank you very much, outsourcers), and the purchasing power of our “nominal” currency was not going down in relation to theirs. Also there was no H-1 floodgates then. The fortresses were different in the 1970s. Why would they stay constant now? If our economy takes a turn for the worse, why would Indians and Chinese continue to come here? In addition, H-1 floodgates? Where are the floodgates? Last I checked, tech companies were lobbying to increase the quotas. Until the Great Recession, the number of applications was far exceeding the quota, even on the first day they took applications. If we are to continue to grow our economy, we should encourage more innovators to come here.

40. thomas.wong1986 Follow Befriend 16 threads 4,426 comments

    46   2:24pm Mon 6 Jun 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   bubblesitter says If there is going to be a downfall, at some point there must be a beginning way before it actually happens. http://news.google.com/newspapers?id=vRAhAAAAIBAJ&sjid=oHIFAAAAIBAJ&pg=982,4924505&dq=japan+enter+semiconductor+industry&hl=en

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