WatchIn late 2010, I think 4 of my coworkers were laughing at me because I said housing will double-dip. They all thought prices would stay flat or drop only a couple of percentages. Well, it's June 2011 and prices already fell 5.5% from Jan to Mar 2011. They look at that and now say that it won't fall anymore even though sales numbers are double-digits in the red.
The sheeple are so brainwashed it's mind boggling! I think it's hopeless guys. America will never wake up to reality until the ESPN is shut down or until the economy totally collapses!!
OMG I'M ANGRY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Thanks for letting me vent!!!!
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HousingBoom says
I like it. I like how you create a thread and disappear. :)
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bubblesitter says
I'm still here!
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Santa Cruz, CA
People who have a vested interest in their hope will not lose it because the thought it too depressing sometimes.
My friend here wanted to sell his house/land for a huge amount at the top, his wife said NO.
He wanted to cash out, go to a no tax state or low tax state and relax. Instead he works about 6.5 days/week because he has no savings and must reverse mortgage his house when he wants to retire.
He gets angry if I mention all of the empty commercial real estate here, the falling values, etc. and tells me to buy silver and land here.
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Seriously--why does that make you angry? If you think the stock market is going to correct and your coworkers don't--does that piss you off?
And why the gratuitous shot at ESPN?
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HousingBoom says
I don't get it either. . . why are you so angry? Is there something in your personal life?
http://www.angermgmt.com/
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Nomograph says
You forgot, AM talk radio.
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Half Moon Bay, CA
I feel sorry for the people I know who bought last year, after I warned them that prices would continue to fall.
One guy I know put more than 20% down to get into a 50 year old Fremont home. That 8k cash back for buyiing a home was too much to resist! His wife was pregnant, so I think he was sort of forced into buying to make her happy.
I tried to talk him into getting a 30 year fixed, but he said it was $250 more per month than the 5 year fixed he had. I told him prices would continue to fall and he wouldn't be able to refiance, but he refused to listen. I said what would he rather do, pay $250 more per month now and keep his house, or lose it when he can't refinance? He just stared at me blankly, like I was crazy.
When he tried to refinance this year, the price of his house had dropped so much, he didn't have enough equity and couldn't find a lender to refinance his home. The house appraised too low.
We don't talk about his house anymore.
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waiting_for_the_fall says
fool and his money is quickly parted..he deserved what he got..
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47 male
Lafayette, CA
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HousingBoom says
Untrue. Case-Shiller reported a drop of less than 1.9% between January to March 2011. When you apply the Case-Shiller seasonal adjustment, it only fell .5%. You're welcome to check my math:
http://www.standardandpoors.com/indices/sp-case-shiller-home-price-indices/en/us/?indexId=spusa-cashpidff--p-us----
HousingBoom says
They are probably right. The housing market has gone up in spring 2009 and spring 2010. Redfin reports a better than average Spring 2011 however it will be a few months before Case-Shiller reports it.
If they are right and you are wrong, does that mean you'll become the brainwashed sheeple?
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HousingBoom says
..or as AF says, until western civilization totally collapses!!
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iwog says
you've been wrong since day one. I remember you said prices will go up a few months ago. quack quack!
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47 male
Lafayette, CA
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HousingBoom says
I said the bottom was 2009 and that we'd be in a flat market for years to follow. I NEVER EVER EVER EVER said we were entering a new bull market. Where I've said prices are going up, it has always been seasonal.
Your prediction for 2009, 2010, and 2011 was for a continued crash. Correct? How well did that prediction turn out?
Anyway this is all besides the point. You called your friends "Brainwashed Sheeple" because they said the market wasn't going to go down anymore after falling 1.9% from January to March. If the market doesn't actually go down anymore this year and the spring rush comes in as predicted, doesn't that mean you become the brainwashed sheeple? That's perfectly fair right?
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iwog says
$8,000 tax credit is an artificial prop up by the gov't. It's like saying the stock market is doing very well and is in new bull market only after the FED printed trillions and trillions of dollars to prop it up. Nobody can predict when the gov't wants to throw in another stimulus for the housing market.
From what I recall, most people on this forum don't take your comments seriously. Enough said!
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iwog says
It already fell 5.5% from Jan to Mar 2011 according to all the articles (including mainstream).
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47 male
Lafayette, CA
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HousingBoom says
That's what you said, and I directly contradicted you AND linked the Case-Shiller reports that say you are wrong AND I invited you to check my math.
I'm not sure what "the articles" are, but most people around these parts use Case-Shiller.
So are you going to answer my question? You said they were brainwashed sheeple because, and I quote: "Well, it’s June 2011 and prices already fell 5.5% from Jan to Mar 2011. They look at that and now say that it won’t fall anymore even though sales numbers are double-digits in the red. " Does this mean you'll admit your a brainwashed sheeple if prices are done falling for the season and head back up? Yes?
HousingBoom says
Good! I wouldn't want to lead anyone astray. The guilt would be awful!
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Bellingham, WA
iwog says
http://patrick.net/forum/?p=578859
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47 male
Lafayette, CA
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Troy says
Come on, you know I was talking about the spring rush. I even went into detail about how I expected it to start early and how Redfin was confirming that prices were starting to move.
That's hardly the same as calling a new bull market.
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klarek says
Wait, let me guess . . . you're angry at the rest of the world too?
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iwog says
You wouldn't happen to have a link to this alleged Redfin report, would you?
Also, why do you always quote Redfin when you think it's in your favor and say it's nonsense when it disagrees with you? One would think you would have learned your lesson after your "Get ready California, prices are going up!" debacle where it turned out your whole case was based on a data glitch.
This is why nobody takes you seriously, Iwog.
The "spring rush" ain't happenin' this year.
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Iwog, do you have something to gain for house prices to stop falling? You fight this topic to the death in every thread.
Does anyone ever talk about seasonal trends like you always allude to? We're talking yearly trends...June '09 to June '10, June '10 to June '11. There's no benefit in comparing the 5 month time frame between a down month and a normally booming month. What are the year-to-date trends? Up or down?
Also, we must acknowledge the short boom that was caused by the 8k tax return, and the quick drop off afterward. It doesn't make sense to use this data in any comparisons unless you acknowledge the event that was taking place.
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No sense in being angry if you yourself didnt buy. I made the mistake of buying in 2008. Now I'm screwed. But at least one friend listened to me and chose not to buy in 2009. If she had she'd be on her way to being underwater too.
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Troy says
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHHA!!! Good find Troy!
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iwog says
Prices did fall beyond "a couple of percentages" so they are already wrong. Don't try to make a case out of nothing. I know you're extremely desperate to find anything to back up all your failed predictions. You're wrong..PERIOD!
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I don't think I've seen real estate "flatline" for an extended period ever.... that's because its a very costly asset with lots of emotions and other factors tied to it.. its normally either appreciating or depreciating in value... so, I don't buy the flatline thing at all...
the question is which will it be.. up or down ? what will jobs and wages be doing in the foreseeable future ? going up or down ?
Here in DC, with potential $2T in cuts coming, I don't see jobs and wages going up ... so, real estate has topped here as well... just like in SFBay area... jobs and wages will be under pressure for the foreseeable future and so will real estate prices..... another 15-20% haircut is coming...
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kmo722 says
Are you sure about that? The housing bust in LA/SF in the 90s had a decent flatline. It still had seasonal bumps, but it was largely nominally flat during the later stages. This is not atypical for the housing market -- a housing bust often has a sharp decrease, followed by a longer flat nominal period where inflation helps income catch up with prices.
In this case, we've seen massive government stimulus that helped prop things up a bit, and the efforts are still ongoing. It's anybody's guess what our overlords will do next. We haven't seen normal interest rates yet, and organic sales are still not up to their normal numbers, and distressed sales are still pretty heavy on the market, and I'm not sure how all that will react if there aren't as large subsidies given to housing.
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Nomograph says
No, just helping you out. Your sermons usually have a part about talk radio to pad your sanctimonious bullshit.
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Saint George, UT
elliemae's website
That link reminded me of my fav "slam" against Iwog - "Iwhack."
I do know people who've bought and are upset because their phantom equity vanished. It doesn't piss me off, just makes me sad for them.
Everyone enters a financial transaction with the hopes of making $ - and many have been devastated by the economy. I take no joy in any of that.
HousingBoom says
Please, please, please (and I'm asking politely and with extreme humility...) don't ever imply my ESPN would go away. Even though I have about 30 hours of sports on the DVR that still await viewing, that would go away soon and my life would be left a desolate wasteland with nothing to look forward to at 3am when I can't sleep. I repeat, DON'T DISS MY ESPN!!!! IMHO, if ESPN were to shut down, the economic ramifications would be far reaching and the cause of the end of civilization as we know it. (wait, let me drink another glass of wine... I might be taking this a little too serioiusly. But you've thrown down, and now I must respond as a red-blooded 'merican woman).
...or is there a sports bubble no one is talking about?
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This is because half the "stimulus" is propping up prices in Europe to save the Euro.
The end game is China joining the first world and allowing their currency to float so foreign exchange markets can punish them. Until then it is inflation forever.
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47 male
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HousingBoom says
Well the new Case-Shiller numbers are out and the market is up. Not only are the numbers up for the 20-city index, but they are up for the three major California markets.
http://www.standardandpoors.com/indices/sp-case-shiller-home-price-indices/en/us/?indexId=spusa-cashpidff--p-us----
Your friends might not be as dumb as you thought.
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Los Angeles, CA
iwog says
I think HousingBoom is outside...with the sheep.
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iwog says
Yaaannnnn!
Bay Area May Home Sales, Median Price Inch Up From April; Fall below 2010
June 15, 2011
La Jolla, CA.----The Bay Area housing market in May posted modest month-to-month gains in sales and median prices, but those same measures fell sharply from year-ago levels, which had been pumped up artificially by homebuyer tax credits. Move-up buying and new-home sales were especially weak last month, while the share of sales involving distressed properties, cash buyers and investors remained far above normal, a real estate information service reported.
A total of 6,988 new and resale houses and condos sold in the nine-county Bay Area last month. That was up 2.9 percent from 6,789 in April but down 15.4 percent from 8,264 in May 2010, according to San Diego-based DataQuick. Last month’s year-over-year drop was the sharpest since sales fell 22.8 percent last October.
On average, Bay Area sales have risen 6.6 percent – about double last month’s gain – between April and May since 1988, when DataQuick’s statistics begin.
Last month’s sales were the lowest for the month of May since 2008, when 6,216 homes sold, and the third-lowest on record, behind May 1995 and 2008. May sales have ranged from a low of 6,216 in 2008 to a high of 13,567 in 2004, while the average is 9,693. Last month’s sales fell 27.9 percent below the May average.
Builders sold 370 newly built homes last month in the Bay Area, down 47.1 percent from a year earlier and the lowest number for a May since at least 1988. Builders have struggled with the weak economy and competition from the resale market, especially distressed properties.
“Given the sluggish start to this spring’s home-buying season, with sales 20 to 30 percent below average, it’s no surprise we’re logging sharper declines from 2010. Sales got a big shot in the arm a year ago, when people rushed to take advantage of expiring homebuyer tax credits. Today the market must stand on its own, and it’s having a hard time doing that in the absence of stronger job growth and consumer confidence. So far, low mortgage rates and lower home prices aren’t enough to overcome the concern some potential buyers have that prices could fall more. Other would-be buyers are unemployed or underemployed, or can’t qualify for a loan. Scores of would-be move-up buyers owe more than their homes are worth; so they’re stuck,” said John Walsh, DataQuick president.