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Social effects of the bubble

By SQT15   Follow   Wed, 21 Sep 2005, 10:01am   8,432 views   583 comments
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Per Jamie's request

What kind of social impact do you think there has been by the bubble? Are people any different because of the wealth effect? What about the social impact on people who have not bought into the RE market? Do you think what we are seeing is predictable human behavior that will occur again in the next bubble?

Is there a social impact we haven't discussed yet?

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1. Peter P Follow Befriend (4) 117 threads 17,655 comments Premium

   64   3:51pm Wed 21 Sep 2005   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected   The rich will always stay rich; the poor will always stay poor–sadly. There is a saying, if you want to be rich, make money off the poor.

2. Peter P Follow Befriend (4) 117 threads 17,655 comments Premium

   65   3:54pm Wed 21 Sep 2005   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Protected   I think the churn between the Educated and Near-Wealthy could slow or stop too, and then within about 30 years that class will evaporate. Very well said. That class is so unnatural in the order of things. Randy, what caused this anomally?

3. Randy H Follow Befriend (5) 44 threads 4,602 comments Los Altos, CA Premium

   66   4:01pm Wed 21 Sep 2005   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Very well said. That class is so unnatural in the order of things. Randy, what caused this anomally? I don't pretend to answer that conclusively. My guess is that it's not an anomally at all, just a temporary phenomenon. I think such sub-rich classes arise naturally when there is structural change, rapid growth, or rapid technological shifts. Such a class existed for about 20 years in the early 20th century and ended with the onset of the Great Depression. I think something similar occurred during the great Industrialization phase also. Maybe it comes into existence because the societal structure can't accomidate new wealth generation fast enough. That is, it takes the Rich time to figure out how to transfer new wealth back into their own pockets, in the mean time the neveaux rich get to spend it for a while.

4. Peter P Follow Befriend (4) 117 threads 17,655 comments Premium

   67   4:07pm Wed 21 Sep 2005   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Protected   Jim Cramer: "the housing bubble is dead" I thought he used to say that there is no housing bubble. Okay, the unicorn is dead.

5. Peter P Follow Befriend (4) 117 threads 17,655 comments Premium

   68   4:09pm Wed 21 Sep 2005   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected   Hey, MP, did you see the sfarmls link I posed in the last thread? Do you think that one is "underpriced" because it is below the $1000/sf you suggested?

6. Randy H Follow Befriend (5) 44 threads 4,602 comments Los Altos, CA Premium

   69   4:21pm Wed 21 Sep 2005   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Protected   A $3.051M house in premium SF hardly provides any evidence of the housing market. What next, shall we shop comparables on Belvedere Island and in Atherton? I really could care less about asset values in the

7. Peter P Follow Befriend (4) 117 threads 17,655 comments Premium

   70   4:31pm Wed 21 Sep 2005   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Hey guys, are you surprised that this house went for $550,000 over asking? I mean, it’s September right and we’re supposed to be in a bubble right? Not surprised. I even expect the condo link I posted yesterday to go for 400K over asking. It proves nothing about the housing market in general.

8. KurtS Follow Befriend 1 threads 973 comments

   71   4:35pm Wed 21 Sep 2005   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)   i think it’s good value Whatever. That link provides little info for comparisons. And speaking of which, what's with this micro-focus on select SF markets? So the examples you hand-pick are selling high, one could easily take issue with that if we're making assumptions about the overal RE scene. What are providing to overal commentary? You examples are repetitious, and rather irrelevant and absurd, IMO. What next, shall we shop comparables on Belvedere Island Well, speaking of which: homes in Belvedere are mostly sitting. I've seen some with signs for 6 mos. or more--with no price reductions.

9. Peter P Follow Befriend (4) 117 threads 17,655 comments Premium

   72   4:45pm Wed 21 Sep 2005   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Peter P - You thinking your condo is going $400,000 over asking (35%+!!) while maintaining a bearish stance on real estate is inconsistent. How does that logic make sense to you? That’s like being a meat eating vegetarian! 1) These condos are not too credit dependent, people do not usually stretch to buy them. They are not representative of the general housing bubble picture. 2) Price over asking shows nothing because even if the asking price is $1, it will still go for the roughly the same sale price. Come on, "efficient market", right? That’s like being a meat eating vegetarian! I know a vegetarian who eats sushi.

10. Peter P Follow Befriend (4) 117 threads 17,655 comments Premium

    73   4:46pm Wed 21 Sep 2005   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   You thinking your condo... I wish it were my condo. :-P

11. Randy H Follow Befriend (5) 44 threads 4,602 comments Los Altos, CA Premium

    74   5:11pm Wed 21 Sep 2005   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected   Here you are, full of hatred, swearing, and bitterness b/c you missed the boat A lot of us here didn't miss the boat at all, myself included. We're just figuring out where the dock is to the next boat. You Realtors(tm) ...i love that, we trademark our title like we're a cult or something...go ahead and think that boats float forever. I'm staring at a 42 page document prepared by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York which says your boat is sinking, by all measurable dimensions. What you got? Padded MLS listings? California Association of Realtors data which has been conslusively proven false by nearly every reputable econometricist in the state? A "Virtual Tour"? Ok, vent-off. I really hate Trolls. I can never avoid taking the bait.

12. Peter P Follow Befriend (4) 117 threads 17,655 comments Premium

    75   5:21pm Wed 21 Sep 2005   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Guys, is there a dilplomatic solution?

13. Peter P Follow Befriend (4) 117 threads 17,655 comments Premium

    76   5:30pm Wed 21 Sep 2005   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (2)   Protected   Okay, this needs to stop.

14. Peter P Follow Befriend (4) 117 threads 17,655 comments Premium

    77   5:35pm Wed 21 Sep 2005   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)   Protected   Peter P, actually yes, there is a diplomatic solution, I won’t post here anymore, as quite frankly while I really enjoy most of your comments, fucknobs like Primetroll are the reason I despise the BA. That is entirely unacceptable. You are a star here. I sincerely ask you to stay. Why don't you start the next thread and you will have the power to delete?

15. Randy H Follow Befriend (5) 44 threads 4,602 comments Los Altos, CA Premium

    78   5:48pm Wed 21 Sep 2005   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike (1)   Protected   Social effects of the bubble The great schadenfreude I'll experience as I watch myriad Realtors(tm) get bounced out of their leased Lexuses. Oh where will they all end up? They're not charasmatic enough to sell used cars. They lack the quantitative skills to be insurance adjustors, or the salesmanship to be insurance agents. Forget about real licenses like CPAs or Series-X. Hmmm. I think we'll see that social-mobility (downward) theory come to life for this bunch. And this, I'll not mourn.

16. Peter P Follow Befriend (4) 117 threads 17,655 comments Premium

    79   5:54pm Wed 21 Sep 2005   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Social effects of the bubble LOL. Randy, you are the expert! Forget about real licenses like CPAs or Series-X. Amazing that real estate professionals do not have real licenses.

17. HARM Follow Befriend (1) 119 threads 4,785 comments HARM's website

    80   5:59pm Wed 21 Sep 2005   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Peter P, Thanks for taking care of our little 'problem child' --you beat me to it. I really wish he'd take up Surfer-X on his offer. I have a feeling that would take care of the problem ;-) .

18. SQT15 Follow Befriend 25 threads 1,690 comments SQT15's website

    81   6:01pm Wed 21 Sep 2005   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)   I'm sorry I wasn't here when the troll started posting, I can't monitor the site all the time so it's ineveitable the troll will post when I'm not here. I'm begging you guys to please stop responding to him. He likes the insults. He's here for the attention. You must ignore him or he won't go. Surfer-X, please don't go, I'll always jump in and delete his comments as soon as I can. But know this, there is nothing you can do to annoy him more than ignoring him. Truly.

19. Peter P Follow Befriend (4) 117 threads 17,655 comments Premium

    82   6:01pm Wed 21 Sep 2005   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Protected   Thanks for taking care of our little ‘problem child’ –you beat me to it. That was SactoQt, not me. :)

20. Peter P Follow Befriend (4) 117 threads 17,655 comments Premium

    83   6:02pm Wed 21 Sep 2005   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Protected   BTW, only Patrick and the thread-owner has the power.

21. SQT15 Follow Befriend 25 threads 1,690 comments SQT15's website

    84   6:07pm Wed 21 Sep 2005   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)   Yup, anyone who starts a thread has power to delete, this one just happens to be "mine."

22. HARM Follow Befriend (1) 119 threads 4,785 comments HARM's website

    85   6:08pm Wed 21 Sep 2005   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)   Say goodbye to MP's latest incarnation. He'll be back soon enough, of course.

23. OO Follow Befriend 1 threads 3,248 comments

    86   6:11pm Wed 21 Sep 2005   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   I think whoever thinks that US is definitely going down need to take some time off and travel around the world for a year, and I mean it. There is nothing more telling than seeing the world with your own eyes. If you think we stink, there are far more stinkier countries out there. I say so because I am a first generation immigrant (legal of course) and I thought real hard about which passport to carry. I deliberately worked and studied in many countries to make sure I don't get on a sinking boat. I am with Randy H 100% on his/her assessment of the situation. Grant it, when the bubble bursts, we will be heading into probably the most difficult period of American history, since we need to repay many debt that this country has accumulated over the years, moral debt, social debt, skill debt, etc, the list goes on. But never lose sight that even with all these problems, we still enjoyone of the highest natural resources per capita, we have more than enough food and water generated in this country for our own consumption (60% of world's food output comes from US) even if world trade comes to an entire halt. So if it is going to be the end of the world, I will stick around here because we shall have a better survival chance than anywhere else on earth. Period. In a way, we need a big recession. We have been sick for a while, and it is about time that the symptoms surface altogether so we can take a stab at the root of the problem. Perhaps we have to turn a bit left for social stability, perhaps we have to cut down shopping expenditure, that is all needed for the healing process.

24. KurtS Follow Befriend 1 threads 973 comments

    87   6:13pm Wed 21 Sep 2005   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)   Wow, guess something happened while I was away. Did someone have a meltdown? awww. Why don’t you start the next thread and you will have the power to delete? X-man, stay around--your posts are interesting, and far more relevant than our bent Marina statistician.

25. Escaped from DC Follow Befriend 1 threads 290 comments Escaped from DC's website

    88   6:33pm Wed 21 Sep 2005   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   1. Let everybody speak. To silence one is a mistake. 2. Ignore him or don't. 3. Surfer X, come on man, thicken that skin. Physical threats? He's beaten you so many times here, why take it up in person? He has got a thumb on your button, and you can't ever beat a button pusher by popping your head off every time he pushes your button. 4. To threaten a man about whom you know little or nothing is either very brave or very foolish. As I once said in a younger year when anger was still within me . . . "I don't care how big you are, if you're not bulletproof, you're picking the wrong fight."

26. OO Follow Befriend 1 threads 3,248 comments

    89   6:34pm Wed 21 Sep 2005   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   According to Merrill's annual survey, we have close to 4M millionaires in the US (50% of the world), classified as those with at least 1M worth of cash or cash equivalents (stock, bonds, etc.), realty holdings and occupied homes don't count towards the networth. I think only these 4M people should be counted towards the sub-rich class. Of course, the billionaires are also included in the 4M number.

27. SQT15 Follow Befriend 25 threads 1,690 comments SQT15's website

    90   6:39pm Wed 21 Sep 2005   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Escaped from the District . . . With Kurt Russel Says: 1. Let everybody speak. To silence one is a mistake. 2. Ignore him or don’t. 3. Surfer X, come on man, thicken that skin. Physical threats? He’s beaten you so many times here, why take it up in person? He has got a thumb on your button, and you can’t ever beat a button pusher by popping your head off every time he pushes your button. 4. To threaten a man about whom you know little or nothing is either very brave or very foolish. As I once said in a younger year when anger was still within me . . . “I don’t care how big you are, if you’re not bulletproof, you’re picking the wrong fight.” Please don't chime in just to stir the pot, it isn't needed or wanted. Many many times has the blog voted to BAN the troll, we've tried to block him but he's so desperate for attention he won't go away. We like Surfer-X and want to keep him so please don't add to the antagonism.

28. Escaped from DC Follow Befriend 1 threads 290 comments Escaped from DC's website

    91   6:45pm Wed 21 Sep 2005   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   I was chiming in to stir the pot? Man o man. Does that minimize what I thought I was doing. Hey - sure - whatever. I guess I'll try to go figure out why I cared enough to post. Don't feed the troll. Mollify the profane crybaby who provides "valuable posts." Oh wait, look, I'm a troll. Better delete this post before is messes up the profound continuity of this thread.

29. Peter P Follow Befriend (4) 117 threads 17,655 comments Premium

    92   6:47pm Wed 21 Sep 2005   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected   I vote to nicely ask Surfer-X to stay.

30. Peter P Follow Befriend (4) 117 threads 17,655 comments Premium

    93   6:48pm Wed 21 Sep 2005   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)   Protected   Oh wait, look, I’m a troll. Better delete this post before is messes up the profound continuity of this thread. How are you a troll?

31. Peter P Follow Befriend (4) 117 threads 17,655 comments Premium

    94   6:50pm Wed 21 Sep 2005   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)   Protected   Escape, your view are highly valued too. Gosh, diplomacy is hard.

32. SQT15 Follow Befriend 25 threads 1,690 comments SQT15's website

    95   6:51pm Wed 21 Sep 2005   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   So I have enjoyed the company of this board. You all seem like decent people. You all certainly are smart people. When you first get the notion that I may be right, some of you might be able to find me. Send me an email. Maybe. Maybe we can help fill that void. I think I know how. I think we can do it. Goodbye folks, be good to your neighbors, regardless of how little they will deserve your goodness. You posted this earlier in a fit of pique and only came back to defend what?? The troll his ability to irritate the hell out of everyone? We have tried to block him from the site at least 4 times because he's nothing more than an irritant. You think this is about free speech? You certainly objected to other pov's enough earlier to "leave" when you didn't like what was said. But now you're going to pull out the "holier than thou" card for an idiot who does nothing but provoke? Why waste your time?

33. Peter P Follow Befriend (4) 117 threads 17,655 comments Premium

    96   7:03pm Wed 21 Sep 2005   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   I think we need to relax and have some iced tea again.

34. SQT15 Follow Befriend 25 threads 1,690 comments SQT15's website

    97   7:12pm Wed 21 Sep 2005   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Peter P I am sorry. I shouldn't get into any arguements either. But I'm tired of defending myself when I am simply doing what the majority of the blog has asked for.

35. KDLady Follow Befriend 37 comments

    98   7:18pm Wed 21 Sep 2005   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   You know how to discipline an errant child don't you? Ignore and/or distract. Surfer X - you are much too intelligent to get drawn in to this MP - head in the sand- person's mentality. Come on, seriously, what kind of person takes the time to go out of his way to make other people feel so badly about themselves? Only someone with pathetically low self esteem. He is only trying to make himself feel better ( about what we don't know) but rest assured, he is hurting ( if MP was as successful as he wants us to believe, why in God's name would be even have a minute to spare or even bother to spew such hatred to people on this board)? He is bored and unfulfilled - don't even respond - just pretend ( better yet, don't even read his posts) that he doesn't exist. Life is too short - don't even waste another minute on this wanna be.

36. Peter P Follow Befriend (4) 117 threads 17,655 comments Premium

    99   7:19pm Wed 21 Sep 2005   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)   Protected   But I’m tired of defending myself when I am simply doing what the majority of the blog has asked for. You do not need to defend yourself against all POVs. You have the understanding of the majority. Thanks for maintaining all these recent threads. I should have been less lazy. ;)

37. OO Follow Befriend 1 threads 3,248 comments

    100   8:01pm Wed 21 Sep 2005   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)   jbunniii, our neighbor, Canada, has an oil reserve that is only second to Saudi, in the form of oil sand, in Alberta. Brazil also has a huge reserve that will be made profitable to explore if the spike in oil price continues. As a continent, we are assured of oil, food supply, drinking water. I am just looking at the worst case scenario. There are far worse continents, e.g. Asia, Europe (excl Russia), and of course Africa. If we can stand the worst case scenario, the rest is all upside.

38. SQT15 Follow Befriend 25 threads 1,690 comments SQT15's website

    101   8:16pm Wed 21 Sep 2005   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   I gotta log off for awhile. Ignore anything the troll posts and I'll delete when I get back. Eventually if we all ignore him, he'll go since he's not getting the attention he so desperately craves. And since I'm going to delete, it'll be like he was never here anyway.

39. OO Follow Befriend 1 threads 3,248 comments

    102   9:54pm Wed 21 Sep 2005   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Just a random thought. What will the recent climatic catastrophy in the Gulf/FL region do to CA realty? I don't remember the east coast and the Gulf area whacked by hurricanes every year 10 years ago. Will the northeastern well-off snowbirds eventually realize that the Pacific coast is a better alternative than the-soon-to-be-under-water FL? Will that mean CA RE will just stand strong because obviously there will be millions of Americans who can afford to pay more for a better weather? Compared to this persistent annual disaster, once-in-a-while earthquake is just a piece of cake.

40. SQT15 Follow Befriend 25 threads 1,690 comments SQT15's website

    103   9:59pm Wed 21 Sep 2005   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Just a random thought. What will the recent climatic catastrophy in the Gulf/FL region do to CA realty? I don’t remember the east coast and the Gulf area whacked by hurricanes every year 10 years ago. Will the northeastern well-off snowbirds eventually realize that the Pacific coast is a better alternative than the-soon-to-be-under-water FL? Will that mean CA RE will just stand strong because obviously there will be millions of Americans who can afford to pay more for a better weather? Compared to this persistent annual disaster, once-in-a-while earthquake is just a piece of cake. Given the outrageous cost of RE here in CA displaced people might look to the midwest instead. We'll see.

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