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Social effects of the bubble

By SQT15   Follow   Wed, 21 Sep 2005, 10:01am   8,448 views   583 comments
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Per Jamie's request

What kind of social impact do you think there has been by the bubble? Are people any different because of the wealth effect? What about the social impact on people who have not bought into the RE market? Do you think what we are seeing is predictable human behavior that will occur again in the next bubble?

Is there a social impact we haven't discussed yet?

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1. SQT15 Follow Befriend 25 threads 1,690 comments SQT15's website

   104   10:07pm Wed 21 Sep 2005   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)   My husband had a funny story today. He knows a guy who's trying to sell a house in El Dorado Hills, its been on the market for 4-5 months I think. The guy is such an idiot. He puts the house on the market for $750,000 and gets and offer for $705,000, his response is "are they nuts! I'm not selling for $705K." And he lets the house sit. A month or two goes by and he re-lists the house at $700,000 and someone offers him $680,000. He gives the same answer and doesn't sell. The house is now listed at $650,000 and he says he'd kill for an offer of $680,000. But if someone offers him less than $650,000 he's not going to take it! I wonder how long this is going to go on and how low he'll eventually go. If I hear I'll let you know.

2. SQT15 Follow Befriend 25 threads 1,690 comments SQT15's website

   105   10:09pm Wed 21 Sep 2005   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Jack I was thinking of emailing Surfer-X and telling him that everyone wants him to stay, but I don't want to be too pushy. What do you think?

3. SQT15 Follow Befriend 25 threads 1,690 comments SQT15's website

   106   10:34pm Wed 21 Sep 2005   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Cindy All I know is that the guy bought a new house and is selling the old one. He has family money so doesn't have to sweat it too much, but he keeps wanting to hold out for more money and is just sitting watching the price go down rather than take an offer.

4. SJ_jim Follow Befriend 451 comments

   107   10:35pm Wed 21 Sep 2005   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   How 'bout some crazy/bizarre real estate property ads? Or, in this case, a series of ads that basically amounts to crazy. These below are for the same property, posted on Sept 15, 18, & 21 (top to bottom): http://www.craigslist.org/sby/rfs/97828686.html http://www.craigslist.org/sby/rfs/97949488.html http://www.craigslist.org/sby/rfs/99093921.html If you don't want to look, basically the price for same unit is listed at 459K, 450K, and 439K on Sep. 15, 16, and 21. At least CL is free. The funny thing is, a while back, the person was listing the price higher, then lower, then higher within a 1-2 wk time frame. Like friggin' realtor schizophrenia. LOL. Oh here's another interesting read: http://www.craigslist.org/sby/rfs/98431958.html

5. Jamie Follow Befriend 1,566 comments

   108   10:39pm Wed 21 Sep 2005   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   LOL, this thread is crazy. I vote that I not be allowed to suggest any more topics for discussion. Can I get an "amen?" :-P Surfer-X, I'm sorry about your friend. And I do hope you'll stick around. We need someone to rage against the machine. Owneroccupier, your point about us having it better than most of the world is well-taken. Thanks for adding a ray of light in all the doom and gloom. :-) I want to believe that any bad economic times to come will ultimately bring positive change. RE the catastrophes in the gulf coast region, I would be very surprised if it contributed to a greater demand for real estate here in CA. Many people who've never lived in CA are terrified of the earthquakes, so I'm guessing the snow birds and such are not going to flee one disaster area for another potential one. Plus real estate is so relatively cheap there as opposed to here (even with recent run-up in FL prices), it's pretty hard for people to make the leap from that region to this one. Or at least it seems that way to me. :-)

6. HARM Follow Befriend (1) 119 threads 4,785 comments HARM's website

   109   10:40pm Wed 21 Sep 2005   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   SactoQt, Great story --this is a classic example of riding the market downhill. Btw, I wouldn't worry about Surfer-X --he'll be back eventually. As Jack, Cindy, Karrie, etc. correctly pointed out, irritating though the troll may be, no one should be feeding him. The more negative attention he gets, the more he keeps coming back.

7. Jamie Follow Befriend 1,566 comments

   110   10:41pm Wed 21 Sep 2005   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   PS I'm clearly feeling the need to add many smiley faces to this thread. Please excuse the excessive smiling.

8. SQT15 Follow Befriend 25 threads 1,690 comments SQT15's website

   111   10:45pm Wed 21 Sep 2005   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   PS I’m clearly feeling the need to add many smiley faces to this thread. Please excuse the excessive smiling. Personally I could use the smiles. I mixed a double martini and took a bath to unwind. This is supposed to be fun right? Btw, I'm trying to watch the thread while taking care of two kids and packing to move in a week and a half. Have pity on me when I can't get to the troll's post's and ignore ignore ignore. I'm begging here. :?

9. HARM Follow Befriend (1) 119 threads 4,785 comments HARM's website

   112   10:47pm Wed 21 Sep 2005   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)   PS I’m clearly feeling the need to add many smiley faces to this thread. Please excuse the excessive smiling. No :mrgreen: need :twisted: for :roll: you :evil: to :oops: apologize :lol: we :razz: understand :cool: the :shock: feeling :grin: completely :???:

10. SJ_jim Follow Befriend 451 comments

    113   10:49pm Wed 21 Sep 2005   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   I think it's somewhat likely that some people, in the frigid northeast, who had been planning on buying retirement/vacation property somewhere on the warm sunny gulf coast, would naturally look set their sights on california in light of the recent gulf coast disaster(s). How many people??? Anyone's guess. Hopefully, for their sake, they come out & experience the crisp & cool ocean water before committing to buy.

11. Jamie Follow Befriend 1,566 comments

    114   10:52pm Wed 21 Sep 2005   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Sacto, you're doing a great job. You shouldn't feel like you have to babysit us all the time. :-) :-) :-) :-) :-) HARM, LOL. I must expand my emoticon language skills. I love the face with the shocked eyes. I'm too lazy to go look up how to do them all.

12. SJ_jim Follow Befriend 451 comments

    115   10:59pm Wed 21 Sep 2005   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   SQt, Somehow it seems that when you post threads per someone's request, it degenerates like this one (like when I requested "rate hike" thread, too). So sorry! Don't worry, must be just a cruel coincidence! I'm sure it'll stope! Don't give up on threadmastering!

13. HARM Follow Befriend (1) 119 threads 4,785 comments HARM's website

    116   10:59pm Wed 21 Sep 2005   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   codex.wordpress.org/List_of_Emoticons

14. SQT15 Follow Befriend 25 threads 1,690 comments SQT15's website

    117   11:06pm Wed 21 Sep 2005   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike (1)   Thanks for the support guys! It is much appreciated. I do seem to get the threads that degenerate into the biggest messes. Just lucky I guess. I'm going to be out of commission for a few days when we move, so I'm thinking it might be time to talk some other regulars into threadmastering?? Anyone? Anyone? Just register and Patrick will send you a password and you'll have mighty thread making powers!

15. HARM Follow Befriend (1) 119 threads 4,785 comments HARM's website

    118   11:11pm Wed 21 Sep 2005   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Lol Now we just need Prat to chime in and it would be perfect. _shakes head in disgust at nasty flame war_ _walks a bit futher_ _kicks a teenage troll posing as $400K/year "investment banker"_ _walks a bit further_ _kicks a defenseless Realtor(tm)_ _walks a bit further_ _starts a preemptive bidding war_ _walks a bit further_ _holds beer while cackling with Jack, Peter P & KurtS @ Marin Brewing Co._ Chewbacca, HARM-as-prat

16. SQT15 Follow Befriend 25 threads 1,690 comments SQT15's website

    119   11:13pm Wed 21 Sep 2005   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Harm-as-prat Yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa! My evening is now complete! :D

17. Peter P Follow Befriend (4) 117 threads 17,655 comments Premium

    120   11:37pm Wed 21 Sep 2005   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   I go into an angry rant about once a week myself so I have not yet transcended the angry problem either. Angry? You are one of the nicest person I have ever met. Perhaps I have mistaken. :-P

18. SJ_jim Follow Befriend 451 comments

    121   11:39pm Wed 21 Sep 2005   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Pop!, I haven't read the whole article yet; but my first thought was: "Wow, they'll have to re-calculate all the ocean tide tables".

19. HARM Follow Befriend (1) 119 threads 4,785 comments HARM's website

    122   11:49pm Wed 21 Sep 2005   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)   I bet Jack had *no idea* just how prescient his "Roid is Prime" predictions were!

20. SQT15 Follow Befriend 25 threads 1,690 comments SQT15's website

    123   11:52pm Wed 21 Sep 2005   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   I'm trying to think of what a home on the moon would be called, but I can't think of anything as good as home'roid. Lunalots? Moonpads? Nothing sounds as good. I'll keep thinking.....

21. SJ_jim Follow Befriend 451 comments

    124   12:07am Thu 22 Sep 2005   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   McMoonsion

22. SJ_jim Follow Befriend 451 comments

    125   12:10am Thu 22 Sep 2005   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   LOL too funny Pop!

23. SQT15 Follow Befriend 25 threads 1,690 comments SQT15's website

    126   12:11am Thu 22 Sep 2005   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   MnMoonsion Ooooooooh, that's good. I give you both credit. ;)

24. SQT15 Follow Befriend 25 threads 1,690 comments SQT15's website

    127   12:14am Thu 22 Sep 2005   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   There is a Nobel Peace Prize, so he obviously didn't just value science.

25. tsusiat Follow Befriend 3 threads 310 comments tsusiat's website

    128   12:26am Thu 22 Sep 2005   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   How many people have concluded that Greenspan's "conundrum" might be based on the fact foreigners are now too afraid to hold long term US debt, in case the US dollar and economy sink further - hence the disconnect between short and long term rates? Any thoughts on that?

26. SJ_jim Follow Befriend 451 comments

    129   12:38am Thu 22 Sep 2005   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   tsusiat, I think your opinion is shared by several on this board. A quick search turned up this article http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/7038159/site/newsweek/ The article contains this rather disturbing statement: "Through September, foreigners had provided 32 percent of the money raised in U.S. credit markets in 2004, up from 14 percent in 2000." I'm curious as to the numbers for 2005.

27. SJ_jim Follow Befriend 451 comments

    130   12:51am Thu 22 Sep 2005   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)   Here, I found 55 page .pdf file concerning foreign central bank effects on long bond interest, among other things: http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~nroubini/papers/BW2-Unraveling-Roubini-Setser.pdf FWIW it's "Roubini and Setser"...I have no idea if they're well-regarded or not.

28. SQT15 Follow Befriend 25 threads 1,690 comments SQT15's website

    131   7:52am Thu 22 Sep 2005   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Hurricane Rita is now a category 5 and is bearing down on Texas. It could also veer to the right and hit southern Louisiana, just what they need. At least this time mass evacuations are underway and the federal government has already declared a state of emergency so the response won't be so slow this time. Hopefully this one will slow down before it hits, but it's still going to be a doozy. What effect do you guys think 2 category 5 hurricanes are going to have on the economy? Also, since it's still in the gulf, the oil rigs will probably be hit again.

29. Randy H Follow Befriend (5) 44 threads 4,602 comments Los Altos, CA Premium

    132   8:30am Thu 22 Sep 2005   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Protected   There is no Nobel prize in Economics. Mr. Nobel specifically prohibited it. He said it isn’t a science, and I agr I love it. You should probably go inform Geroge A. Akerlof (from my alma mater), A. Michael Spence and Joseph E. Stiglitz (from my other alma mater) that their prizes don't exist. I think there's a ton of these non-prize winners sitting over in Berkeley too. Got to nobelprize.org for reference. The actual award's full title is: "The Bank of Sweden Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel"

30. Jamie Follow Befriend 1,566 comments

    133   8:32am Thu 22 Sep 2005   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   "You must have a hole in your head if you think diluting an existing race and culture is a good thing." You could have disagreed with me without insulting me. That was completely unnecessary.

31. Randy H Follow Befriend (5) 44 threads 4,602 comments Los Altos, CA Premium

    134   8:32am Thu 22 Sep 2005   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Suggestion for new thread topic (directed at SactoQt): OIL SHOCK! (Part II). With Rita now headed straight for the US refinery heartland, what effects can we expect economically. Short-term, long-term, macro, micro, psychological. And finally, if/how/when will this affect the Bay Area's real-estate bubble?

32. Randy H Follow Befriend (5) 44 threads 4,602 comments Los Altos, CA Premium

    135   8:50am Thu 22 Sep 2005   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   They say diversity of race/sex/perversion is great, but how? They have never provided one logical argument about why it is great. Because they can’t. Their real goal is to destroy America and western civilization in general. They do that with their constant attacks on morality and Christianity. They do that with their socialism. And they do that with their immigration policies allowing this country to become the United Nations. Firstly, I'll try to avoid the direct race-baiting which is going on. I really deplore that kind of troll the worst. (a) One need not be liberal to believe diversity has logically consistent, social and economic benefits. I, for one, am anything but liberal. I count myself an Objectivist, which is closer to Libertarian than anything, and I ensure you that I am _way_ more fiscally conservative than you can imagine. (b) I have provided at least 4 logical arguments regarding diversity, all of which are grounded in economic theory and proven empirically and historically. (c) Who's goal is it to "destroy western civilization"? Just because intelligent people disagree about these things doesn't indicate that they are somehow your enemy. Not only does this not follow, but it's starkly anti-American. (d) Morality and Chistianity? You have drawn a parallel linking Liberals to non-moral/non-Christians and conservatives as the opposite. Let me ask you this: Who, exactly, has been responsible for the overwhelming bulk of immigration into the US since the Industrial Revolution, continuing today? Unless you answer Oligarchs, Industrialists, and most recently Multinational Corporations then you are simply wrong. I don't seem to recall seeing many of these folks crusading for leftist causes over the years. (e) Finally Socialism. Historically, Socialist countries have allowed very little-to-no immigration. This continues today in much of Socialist-Democratic Europe. If the US becomes "more Socialist", then expect less immigration because the people here already will exert their self-beneficial intent to erect barriers to free-trade, immigration, and capital market liberalization. It is the fiscal conservatives (pro-free market, free trade), who want _more_ immigration because it helps to create greater overall economic growth and wealth generation. ...I'm happy to provide ecomonic proofs, etc. but if all people are worried about is religious culture wars, then I can't offer anything of use. Just remember that dogmatic ideological crusades make you no better than those you call your enemy.

33. Randy H Follow Befriend (5) 44 threads 4,602 comments Los Altos, CA Premium

    136   8:56am Thu 22 Sep 2005   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected   Do you they ever claim that China is worse off because it only has Chinese? ...and one more thing, you show your ignorance here, I'm afraid. China is not "one-people", even if they all "look the same to you". Go travel in China a bit and tell me that the people in the rural north are the same cultural, ethnic, religious as those on the coast. China, in fact, is incredibly diverse, and is becoming more integrated as the government modernizes the economy and infrastructure and people move between regions. ...and lots of people complain about Japanese monoculture and hegenomy, and have been doing so since the early 1960s. Ask anyone who happens to live somewhere near Japan.

34. Jamie Follow Befriend 1,566 comments

    137   9:40am Thu 22 Sep 2005   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Thanks, Randy, for the very well-reasoned arguments. I agree completely.

35. KurtS Follow Befriend 1 threads 973 comments

    138   9:41am Thu 22 Sep 2005   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   “are they nuts! I’m not selling for $705K.” I think this scenario is repeating itself all over the place. ...The entire Central Valley, which is the most productive farmland on earth, would be desert without intensive irrigation. Originally the southern end was a huge lake/wetlands, which is why the early Spanish drew the area as an island on maps. Too bad LA sucked the place dry.

36. KurtS Follow Befriend 1 threads 973 comments

    139   10:30am Thu 22 Sep 2005   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (2)   “The article contains this rather disturbing statement: Through September, foreigners had provided 32 percent of the money raised in U.S. credit markets in 2004, up from 14 percent in 2000.” Yeah, a little unsettling isn't it? What would happen to money rates if they pulled their funds? Wouldn't that pinch our credit spree in a big way?

37. Peter P Follow Befriend (4) 117 threads 17,655 comments Premium

    140   10:33am Thu 22 Sep 2005   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Joseph E. Stiglitz Did you mention Stiglitz? I like his work.

38. Peter P Follow Befriend (4) 117 threads 17,655 comments Premium

    141   10:35am Thu 22 Sep 2005   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Historically, Socialist countries have allowed very little-to-no immigration. This continues today in much of Socialist-Democratic Europe. Although Canada is quite pro-immigration compared to Sweden.

39. Randy H Follow Befriend (5) 44 threads 4,602 comments Los Altos, CA Premium

    142   10:37am Thu 22 Sep 2005   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected   Yeah, a little unsettling isn’t it? What would happen to money rates if they pulled their funds? Wouldn’t that pinch our credit spree in a big way? If they pull their funds (sell their dollar-denominate assets, which is our debt), then all hell would break loose. But they won't, at least not in any dramatic or rapid fashion. The current worries are that they'll simply stop buying as many dollar-assets, and they'll diverify more, probably into EUR and JPY assets. I am certain of this for many reasons, but one above all others. Aside from the Europeans, who have their own unique (and quite structurally deep) fiscal problems, the Asians who hold a significant portion of US debt cannot afford the purchase-power-parity adjustments and rapid inflation that would ensue were they to start selling of dollars en masse.

40. SJ_jim Follow Befriend 451 comments

    143   10:37am Thu 22 Sep 2005   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Randy H, your comment about China's diversity is like saying America would be diverse, even if it was all white, because folks are different in the South, the Midwest, the West Coast, New England, etc. We all know that all countries have very diverse regions within them, some more so than others. I don't think anyone on this board is the type that assume all people of one color are the same (culturally, etc.)...well except maybe that East Cali dude. China and many other countries will never have anything near the multi-national-cultural diversity that America does. Is this good? Bad? I don't really care! If anything, I'd rather concern myself with environmental practices in manufacturing leading to unfair business advantages in global economy.

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