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  • On 25 Aug 2014 in Nearly everyone on earth is blaming the federal reserve, Reality said:

    iwog says

    Only someone with gross ignorance would make the claim that there's a market discovery process that isn't saturated with manipulation and double-dealing and results in anything useful. Even with extensive regulations, banks still fuck with interest rates for profit.

    So how much manipulation and doubling-dealing have you seen in the bread market? as opposed to, say the taxi market? The latter is much more regulated than the former.

    Did it ever occur to you that banks "fuck with interest rate" precisely because they are a regulated oligopoly? Just like taxi under protection of the medallion system, the government prevention of new entries is what's keeping those cheaters' lunches from being taken by new-comers. The Europeans even want to ban Uber.

    Which is amazing since you're the first one to bitch about manipulation in the gold market. Your solution? Less regulation. Why? Because somehow a market so saturated with fraud that everyone abandons it is better than what we've got now.

    Brilliant.

    Where did you get the idea that I was the first one to complain about manipulations in the gold market? I don't remember myself complaining about the gold market being manipulated, although it is quite conceivable that the gold paper market is manipulated, according to the rules imposed on the paper contract market.

  • On 25 Aug 2014 in Nearly everyone on earth is blaming the federal reserve, Reality said:

    iwog says

    Just because there is a market determined short term interest rate DOES NOT mean that's the correct discount rate. In fact I'm pretty sure a market based rate would seriously fuck things up. The banks would be playing a casino.

    Nobody knows for certain what the theoretical correct discount rate is. That's why a market discovery process is necessary for discovering the price of money . . . just like a market price discovery process is necessary for discovering the price of bread or lettuce. The soviet style price fixing would only lead to shortage, waste and market lock-up . . . which was exactly what happened when FED held the rates too low for too long during a boom, then when the bust takes place it tries to keep bad debts alive.

  • On 25 Aug 2014 in Nearly everyone on earth is blaming the federal reserve, Reality said:

    tatupu70 says

    Reality says

    Be careful about how you measure Real Wage. When an under-stated inflation compensator is used, of course you'd get the wrong result.

    lol--when data doesn't agree with your worldview, it's questionable. When it does, it's correct.

    That decribes what typical government data targeting does. The falsehood is easily shown by what one median wage used to be able to afford decades ago now being unable to afforded by two median wages.

    Reality says

    The fact that what comfortable middle class family living of single family house, two cars, college education for kids, etc. etc. could all be accomplished on one job holder before the advent of pure fiat money in 1971, whereas today not even two holders can accomplish the same, should give us a clue that the numerical adjustor for inflation is way off.

    You attribute a problem to the wrong cause, of course. Fiat money has very little to do with the issue.

    Fiat money has everything to do with this:

    1. Fiat money system transfers money from the rest of the economy to the financial gambling (making gambling having a positive return expectation value instead of a negative one after transaction cost) and the ultra-rich;

    2. Fiat money system enables the global military empire that makes out-sourcing jobs easier and safer to the capital owners;

    tatupu70 says

    Reality says

    A person making $1M a year increase 10% in his salary can even out 20 people $50k/yr losing 10% in their salaries, as far as "Average Wage" is concerned.

    Which is why nobody speaks of "average" wages. Median wage is almost universally used.

    Average per capita GDP is still the most frequently used measure for living standards for a given country, despite its inherent faults. Even Median Wage as a measure of living standard is grossly skewered when the effective unemployment rate is as high as we have now (i.e. labor participation rate is as low as we have now).

    tatupu70 says


    That's why the percentage workers working for financial industry has increased dramatically in the past 40 years, and the wealth disparity has increased dramatically. If you and I invent a "coin toss gambling industry," where each of us bet $10x our net worth each year on a coin toss, heads you pay me your entire networth and have the rest of the society pay me 9x your networth (that neither of us ever had), tail I pay you my net-worth and the rest of the society pays you 9x my networth, why would either of us want to work for anyone else when we have such a money printing scheme going?

    Again--pure nonsense. I know that analogy probably plays with the tea party crowd, but it's pure BS.

    Analogy is a basic logic skill that the typical college graduates are expected to be able to do in GRE tests. In any case, the case above is called exemplification, not analogy. Fiat money bailout makes financial gambling a positive sum game instead of zero-sum (and negative-sum after transaction cost) for all participants on gambling derivative contracts. That is a mathematical fact.

  • On 25 Aug 2014 in Nearly everyone on earth is blaming the federal reserve, Reality said:

    iwog says

    Reality says

    Do you really embrace the Japanese Lost Decades as a model to be followed?

    Irrelevant to the conversation at hand yet you repeat it even when I very clearly pointed it out.

    How is that irrelevant? You advocate ZIRP policy using Japanese experience as your shining example, the reality is that the Japanese ZIRP policy has produced their Lost Decades. Do you advocate curing fever by cutting the patient's head off and let his body temperature drop to room temperature? Is that your technocrat solution for fever?

    The assertion was that ZIRP causes inflation and that everyone knows it. The assertion is false. I don't give a fuck about your idiotic Austrian alternate reality bullshit.

    What the heck does "Austrian" have to do with this? Is every basic concept in economics somehow "Austrian" to you? Do you actually take pride in being utterly ignorant regarding economics?

    The Japanese ZIRP policy has the explicit policy objective of inflating asset prices. That's what it has accomplished: inflation, which is what has been levitating asset prices.

  • On 25 Aug 2014 in Nearly everyone on earth is blaming the federal reserve, Reality said:

    iwog says

    As evidence of this not being true, I submit Japan which has had ZIRP for decades yet no inflation or outright deflation.

    Do you really embrace the Japanese Lost Decades as a model to be followed? BTW, the fundamental cause for the Japanese Lost Decades is two fold:

    1. the interest rates were kept low in the 1980's in order to keep the Yen down to help the huge exporters; it was too low compared to the asset price appreciation for both Nikkei and real estate in Japan. Those were where inflation was back then.

    2. ZIRP policy in the post-1990 Japanese crash has prevented the proper switching of resources from badly-run companies to better-run companies. The vitality of capitalism derives from vigorous elimination of bad companies. When bad companies are kept alive, it's the human lives that get wasted.

  • On 25 Aug 2014 in Nearly everyone on earth is blaming the federal reserve, Reality said:

    iwog says

    Reality says

    How should the price of bread be determined? Why don't we have government bureaucracy set price on bread?

    Obviously you are ignorant of how our monetary system works.

    There is no "our monetary system". Slaves may be delusional and call the plantation they work on as "our plantation," but the real ownership is quite obvious. I understand monetary systems quite well.

    A fed rate of "let the market decide" can't work. Therefore you're not actually talking about the point I raise and instead have introduced an entirely different premise which is "KILL DA FED!!!!". If you want to actually talk about the point I raised and not go off on some idiotic Austrian tangent, you can attempt to explain how an actual market-determined fed rate might work.

    Monetary system existed before there was FED; monetary system existed before domestic gold convertibility was abolished; monetary system existed before international gold convertibility was abolished; monetary system existed when Greenspan doctrine had the FED rates following market rate lead; monetary system still exists today in the post crash world as the FED prints up extra money to accomodate government borrowing. When the accomodation leads to revisiting the 1970's stagflation and possibly hyperinflation, monetary system will continue to exist, and some fools will continue to call it "our monetary system" even as rats scramble to abandon ship.

  • On 25 Aug 2014 in Nearly everyone on earth is blaming the federal reserve, Reality said:

    Bellingham Bill says

    Only where production cannot increase to meet the new demand.

    In a 21st century push-button, automated, high-touch service economy, 19th century limitations on wealth creation really no longer apply.

    Apple will have sold ONE BILLION iOS devices by next year, maybe this year.

    So why don't you try going into an Apple store, take one of their devices, and tell them they won't miss it because they will just make another one? In fact, try telling them you are doing them a favor by taking one off their hands! LOL.

    What you are missing is the fact that:

    1. for every Apple device taking up natural resources, an android device or laptop is not made from the same resources;

    2. All the workers on the production lines and the stores have to be paid in order to have food on their tables and roofs over their heads.

    We really live in a post-scarcity, Jetsons economy, we just don't know it yet, since we can't import housing or healthcare from China, yet.

    Silly people with small minds like that were rampant a hundred years ago, just before WWI. Many thought the study of physics would soon come to an end because all there was to be discovered was about to have been discovered.

    Then idiot revolutionaries in Russia thought all they needed to build a utopia was to steal the production lines once and for all. They didn't seem to realize that a 1950's Ford or GM model, as good as it was in 1950, would be obsolete by 1980. How happy are you with your 2007 original iPad anyway? now 7 years later? How do you think improvements would come about if not for the fierce battle between iOS vs. Android devices one-up another fighting for the same limited natural resources and human labor going into them?

  • On 25 Aug 2014 in Nearly everyone on earth is blaming the federal reserve, Reality said:

    iwog says

    1. "What they should be" is what exactly?? The fed has to put the rate somewhere, so how exactly should the RIGHT rate be determined?

    How should the price of bread be determined? Why don't we have government bureaucracy set price on bread?

    Different people have different risk appetite for time vs. money. Nobody has the full picture on what all possible investment opportunities are out there. The market place itself is better than any one individual or any small group of individual in setting price, including the price of money, which is interest.

    2. It is not accepted by virtually the entire economics world in fact Japan has held rates near zero for 20 years without inflation. Therefore your assertion is just plain wrong.

    What Japan has had is more than two Lost Decades. The Japanese Central Bank has the explicit policy of debasing the Yen and levitating asset prices in order to keep their big banks nominally solvent. The result is more than two decades of lack of business opportunity and stagnant economic growth. You don't see inflation simply because your statistics does not include asset prices.

    3. Where is OUR inflation after ZIRP since 2009?

    In the asset prices.

  • On 25 Aug 2014 in Nearly everyone on earth is blaming the federal reserve, Reality said:

    tatupu70 says

    Like I said earlier--inflation is a distraction. Real wage growth is what matters. There is no evidence that real wage growth is higher during low, zero, or negative inflation times vs. higher inflation times.

    Surprising to see you now talking about real wage growth instead of nominal wage growth. Now the next two layers of the onion to be peeled:

    1. Be careful about how you measure Real Wage. When an under-stated inflation compensator is used, of course you'd get the wrong result. The fact that what comfortable middle class family living of single family house, two cars, college education for kids, etc. etc. could all be accomplished on one job holder before the advent of pure fiat money in 1971, whereas today not even two holders can accomplish the same, should give us a clue that the numerical adjustor for inflation is way off.

    2. A person making $1M a year increase 10% in his salary can even out 20 people $50k/yr losing 10% in their salaries, as far as "Average Wage" is concerned. The central banking scheme grossly enrich the financial industry at the expense of the rest of the economy. That's why the percentage workers working for financial industry has increased dramatically in the past 40 years, and the wealth disparity has increased dramatically. If you and I invent a "coin toss gambling industry," where each of us bet $10x our net worth each year on a coin toss, heads you pay me your entire networth and have the rest of the society pay me 9x your networth (that neither of us ever had), tail I pay you my net-worth and the rest of the society pays you 9x my networth, why would either of us want to work for anyone else when we have such a money printing scheme going?

  • On 25 Aug 2014 in Nearly everyone on earth is blaming the federal reserve, Reality said:

    tatupu70 says

    Do you believe that wage growth is independent of inflation?

    Nominal wage growth pulled up by inflation is just another way of saying wage growth is lagging inflation; aka, real wage DECLINE!

    Real wage DECLINE for workers not in the money printing industries is indeed the result inflation. Intended result of inflation/counterfeiting, which is simply a transfer of wealth from the rest of the society to the counterfeiters and their associates.

    I think you'll find there is a very strong correlation. Low inflation = low wage growth. High inflation = high wage growth.

    Whose wage growth? The real producers' or the counterfeiters'?

  • On 9 Aug 2014 in Meet "McCashier" Your $15.00 Per Hour McDonald's Worker Replacement, Reality said:

    Strategist says

    I would work for her as a slave.

    And she will close her pussy to you as soon as you sign up.

  • On 9 Aug 2014 in Meet "McCashier" Your $15.00 Per Hour McDonald's Worker Replacement, Reality said:

    Bellingham Bill says

    The bottom line is too many people, not enough work.

    Considering how heavily endebted our society and country as a whole are (i.e. borrowing productive capacity from the future to pay for current purchases), it should be damn obvious that the average American is a net consumer not a net producer: the more such people are in existence the more demand for jobs are there than can be fulfilled by such people.

    The problem is that the current tax, regulation and monetary system is not translating people's wants and desires into legit jobs. People have natural propensity for leisure, therefore not having to work means they don't go out to work.

  • On 7 Aug 2014 in Meet "McCashier" Your $15.00 Per Hour McDonald's Worker Replacement, Reality said:

    IMHO, this is still akin to the attempt to drive the car with rein and whip a hundred years ago. The voice and touch screen inputs will soon be for dummies only, whereas most orders especially drive thru orders will be handled by smartphone beaming.

    Then the next step is online pre-order before going there to pickup. This has the potential of seriously undermining fast food oligopoly e's in favor of inexpensive made to order gourmet takeouts. The online customization directly displayed to the chef can be far more precise than going thru a server or an order taker like they are now.

  • On 7 Aug 2014 in Rin's favorite North American R&R Destination under threat, Reality said:

    It's not a tax if it is voluntary, like charity or simply gift giving. Yes, mating is always one of the most efficient redistribution mechanisms, ever since the day Prince Charming picked up Cinderella, or the day the proto - ape male gave the proto female ape a piece of bone after giving her his boner.

  • On 7 Aug 2014 in Rin's favorite North American R&R Destination under threat, Reality said:

    Rin says

    From 1775 to 1781, we'd fought England for our independence.

    Centuries later, we're forbidden to pay for a bo*nk in America but can do so back in the UK.

    LOL. If King George ' s 3% tax had been kept in place as the only tax collected from these colonies, a lot of bans and wars would not have been possible. The world would have been a much more peaceful and happier place. Love the founding fathers for their principles, but look at what they have done, or more precisely what the people have done after 1776 despite that good start.

  • On 7 Aug 2014 in 10 reasons debunked #2, Reality said:

    JH says

    Have you cashed that in yet? You have gains on paper

    At present time, collecting $3-4k/mo net operating cash flow off each building and writing off $10k+/yr in depreciation and $15k+/yr in interest expense is better than selling each building at about $1m, paying off mortgage, commission, marketing cost and capital gains tax then sit on about half a mil cash. My skin in the game was about $100k to $150k in each building like that. Not saying it's a good time to buy now however. LOL

  • On 5 Aug 2014 in 10 reasons debunked #2, Reality said:

    Well, during the 2011-2012 time frame, I bought in both the nice areas and the ghetto. The return from the nice areas have resulted in about 50-100% price appreciation in three years on top of 5-8% rental yield after all expenses, including mortgage interest cost. 3x-5x times that rate in terms of ROI thanks to leverage.

    In the ghetto, the return from price appreciation is 100%-200% two years after buying near the bottom. The rental yield is 20%-40% without leverage (bought with cash as those buildings could not be financed), but had to wait 6mo to a year of negative return due to renovation and gradually filling the buildings with good tenants.

    There are merits to both strategies. One strategy took guts to load up on debt when everybody and his dog was saying not to buy; the other took guts to carry the buildings while they were being renovated and every month was showing negative cash flow. You can't make money without taking risks.

  • On 30 Jul 2014 in Our suburbs are a colassal and costly disaster, Reality said:

    JH says

    So far the trend over the past 40 is this: gas was fifty cents, now it is 4 dollars. I would hate to see that trend play out for 200 years.

    Beef price also went up about 8x in those 40 years, and nobody is suggesting cattles have become endangered species. The price increase is simply the result of dollar debasement. As for 200 years, the dollar will be probably be reformed at some point before another 200 years is up, likely sooner rather than later.

  • On 29 Jul 2014 in Violent Crime Rises And Falls With Black Population, Reality said:

    Let's set aside the race issue, let's look at the Distance from Equator within Europe: even the southern Europeans are selected by local females for Don Juan behavior instead of the preference for more industrious types in Northern Europe in order to ensure the survival of her offsprings. That's all within the same race of "Caucasians."

    Another issue is "cross-over": "blacks" in the US have gotten a lot of lighter in skin color over the past 300-400 years, and many have crossed over to self-identify as "whites" after moving. It is estimated that the majority of "whites" in the US actually have at least one black person among their ancestors.

    Now think about that for a moment. If we have 100 blue people to begin with, then each year the most intelligent among them is moved out of the group, replaced by one that is of exactly the average intelligence of the remaining 99. What do you think will happen to the average intelligence of the group after 300-400 iterations?

    It's the same effect as the most kinetic molecules evaporate and reduce the water temperature in an open container.

  • On 24 Jul 2014 in Fox "News" is an unhealthy (and ignorant) lifestyle, Reality said:

    Howdy There says

    I base my personal finances on Keynesian theory

    Really? You kite checks and force other people to accept them when you run short of money? Do they believe your promise that you will someday save up the money to make the checks good? instead of kiting more checks to pay past bad checks?

  • On 23 Jul 2014 in Addendum: No Kids and now, generally losing interest in women, Reality said:

    Rin is planning to be a neo-feudal rentier living off the dividends of tobacco and utility stocks, while pursuing his own intellectual interests as a Renaissance Man. i.e. he will be retired. He is not planning on climbing corporate ladders.

    In his case, financially and logistically support the women taking care of the kids' daily needs, the interaction with kids may well inspire him to new worthy technology pursuits and artistic output; instead of "opportunity cost," he may well be receiving new opportunity from those real interactions with kids and younger women.

  • On 23 Jul 2014 in Addendum: No Kids and now, generally losing interest in women, Reality said:

    The game is rigged against the average male wage slaves. However, Rin, you are supposed to be one who can afford to be a Renaissance Man; i.e. who has staff taking care of his needs, and have the resources to do the big thinking and live life experiences that the mere wage slaves would admire and fantasize about. Some of Goethe's best pieces were inspired by his personal relationship experiences, real courtship and pursuit of hard-to-obtain women much younger than himself. If Goethe wrote a piece about boinking wax effigy, I don't think the piece would have resulted in the popularity and acclaim of Marienbad Elegy. The dude was 73, proposing marriage to an 18 year old probable virgin (via his patron, the Grand Duke of Saxe-Weimar), for her intellect and beauty; the poem describing the old man's feeling after rejection was the master piece. You need the real relational experience to write inspiring pieces.

    Speaking of Goethe as your model of a Renaissance Man, aren't you forgetting the first thing Faust did after trading in his soul for unlimited power? He fell in love and impregnated a teenager. He didn't go hire a hooker, LOL.

  • On 23 Jul 2014 in Addendum: No Kids and now, generally losing interest in women, Reality said:

    Rin says

    Reality says

    Raising children is not hard when you have the resources and the dedicated partner to be on the spot at all time.

    I'm working towards my Renaissance man goals and for me, kids are not in that picture. I think we'd already had that discussion earlier.

    All three examples of Renaissance men that you mentioned (Gothe, Jefferson, Franklin) were very reproductive men. Having a clutch of kids entertaining you, helping you and stimulating your mind is not a distraction but a positive ingredient in your quality of life. Kids are only burdens for people who can not afford them. It's like employees: for employers who can not afford them, they are burden, but for the ones who have the means, extra hands can be put to good use.

    BTW, being able to afford them doesn't just mean being able to buy diapers, but being able to secure either a dedicated mother or being able to pay full-time staff, to change the diapers when you are not in the mood of discovering how diaper changing can be done more efficiently via some technology that you may come up with. LOL

  • On 23 Jul 2014 in Addendum: No Kids and now, generally losing interest in women, Reality said:

    Blowing money on hookers is really subsidizing social dysfunction. You can do so much more for the young women and their statistically almost certain to happen children by impregnating them with your own sperms and supporting them . . . if you can afford it.

  • On 23 Jul 2014 in Addendum: No Kids and now, generally losing interest in women, Reality said:

    Rin says

    Reality says

    There can still be a common goal: raising children together in a co-parenting arrangement outside marriage.

    Reality, despite your over-the-top messages, I get it, you're a parent.

    On the other hand, I'm not. A lot of that stuff needed to happen earlier in life. Today, it's simply too late.

    I did not become a parent until I was 33. And I intend to father more children with 20-something year olds despite myself having reached 40 already. Raising children is not hard when you have the resources and the dedicated partner to be on the spot at all time. Once you have an economy of scale going, the older kids love to pitch in helping raising the younger kids.

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