comments by ThreeBays

ThreeBays   befriend   ignore   Tue, 25 Aug 2015, 7:52am PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 1

Surprise surprise, majority of Republicans think the leading Democratic nominee should suspend her campaign (insert reasons).

ThreeBays   befriend   ignore   Mon, 24 Aug 2015, 11:32pm PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 2

iwog says

This graph should make it extremely obvious that inventory isn't growing or shrinking based on sales versus listings. Also I don't know where you're getting your weekly data from.

The data is available on Redfin. You can see sales records with dates, and listings with # days on Redfin. Simple arithmetic, if more homes are coming on the market than are being sold or pulled off market then the # for sale will increase over time.

Also the County aggregate is hiding an important fact. The most desirable areas are the ones where listings are growing Y-o-Y.

# Homes for sale vs Prev Year
Palo Alto up 9.8%
Mountain View up 82.5%
Los Altos up 83.3%
Los Altos Hills up 38.5%
Sunnyvale up 49.5%
Santa Clara up 62.4%
West San Jose Up 40.7%
Saratoga up 88.7%
Campbell up 7.4%
Cambrian Park up 24.8%
Almaden Valley up 10.9%
Evergreen up 22.2%

Los Gatos down 2.6%

ThreeBays   befriend   ignore   Sat, 22 Aug 2015, 10:45am PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 3

Everything I said is from Redfin. Please check the facts.

iwog says

I've gone through and counted every home for sale in a Redfin coverage area and they are spot on perfect.

Then I did the same thing with realtor.com/movoto data, which share the same database, and they had numerous listings that have already been sold counted as for sale. I have never found any fault with Redfin data which is why I use them. I'm not sure where you got the 1906 number from.

Redfin's listing data is the most accurate. What I'm disputing is their "Market Trends".

The 1908 number is what Redfin says is for sale. Don't know if 1906 was my typo, or it changed since I looked at it. https://www.redfin.com/county/345/CA/Santa-Clara-County/filter#!v=8&sst=&region_id=345&region_type=5&market=sanfrancisco

iwog says

ThreeBays says

Really? The graph shows that sales sales peaked in May, dropped ~30% in June, and dropped ~10% in July.

You're confusing sales with listings. They aren't the same thing. A house can be for sale in May, June, AND July but an actual recorded sale only happens once. A house can be taken off the market, put back on the market, or flipped. These will change the numbers and cause perceived, but not actual discrepancies.

No, I am using # sold. Can't be simpler than that. Check https://www.redfin.com/county-recently-sold/345/CA/Santa-Clara-County, you can see every sale.

iwog says

ThreeBays says

I provided you with data based on actual listings and sales which show that inventory is growing by over 10% per week.

This is absolutely false. Inventory is the actual number of houses offered for sale. Period. There's no way that inventory is growing by 10% per week and I think that assertion is ridiculous. Inventory in Santa Clara County is about the same as this time last year with the important difference that it is DROPPING instead of RISING.

Week 34
New homes 420
Closed 248

Week 33
New homes 456
Closed 330

There are more new homes than are selling. This will make inventory go up unless houses are taken off the market.

ThreeBays   befriend   ignore   Sat, 22 Aug 2015, 8:55am PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 4

Iwog, you're right when looking at Redfin's stats, the problem is Redfin's stats look self inconsistent!

* July # Homes for sale 2733.

Redfin says this is the # homes for sale at the end of that period. Nowhere on the graph can you find this number.
The actual number of listings in SC is 1906.

* July # Homes sold 103.4% up over previous month.

Really? The graph shows that sales sales peaked in May, dropped ~30% in June, and dropped ~10% in July.

If you look in-depth their data looks busted. I've been trying to collect their raw data so I can build my own graphs. In the meantime, I provided you with data based on actual listings and sales which show that inventory is growing by over 10% per week.

ThreeBays   befriend   ignore   Fri, 21 Aug 2015, 10:58pm PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 5

I'm only familiar with the Bay Area. If you look in detail at sales & inventory, I think the trend is that inventories will increase at a significant clip:

Alameda County
516 homes listed in past 7 days
354 homes closed in past 7 days

Santa Clara County
486 homes listed in past 7 days
253 homes closed in past 7 days

San Mateo County
219 homes listed in past 7 days
91 homes closed in past 7 days

The South Bay had growing inventory in July, and continues to have a weekly deficit of sales to listings of 253 units in Santa Clara.
Alameda has a 162 unit deficit.

* These keeping in mind that closings are a trailing indicator of demand.

ThreeBays   befriend   ignore   Fri, 7 Aug 2015, 7:01pm PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 6

iwog says

ThreeBays says

iwog, those stats are for June. Actually the way they work, those are for early June and will be revised.

The graph is from last week.

There is a time to close (3+ weeks).

The % to asking that you circled is 1) YoY, 2) Not updated since early July, 3) based on a 90 day running average AFAIK.

You're trying to reason there is no cool-down in the past 1 month based on data older than 1 month.

ThreeBays   befriend   ignore   Fri, 7 Aug 2015, 9:23am PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 7

iwog, those stats are for June. Actually the way they work, those are for early June and will be revised.

Things have changed significantly in July. The Redfin post is also talking about things they've seen just in the last month.

We can see that the # sold dropped steeply, as if it was Christmas in July. The sold price data is naturally delayed. Redfin will publish initial July summary soon, and then will revise it in September as more sales close.

ThreeBays   befriend   ignore   Thu, 6 Aug 2015, 9:33pm PDT   Share   Quote   Like (2)   Dislike     Comment 8

iwog says

This article doesn't apply to California. Yet.

It does. I've been watching San Jose and Fremont. The best ready to move in houses are still selling fast, but in general homes are sitting on the market longer, some price cuts, and bidding war environment significantly changed in July. You can now expect to bid at asking price or even lower in areas, instead of 100~200k over asking.

ThreeBays   befriend   ignore   Thu, 11 Jun 2015, 8:06pm PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 9

One of the worst companies to work for.

ThreeBays   befriend   ignore   Fri, 29 May 2015, 1:55am PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 10

Misquoting Obama... he said it is a serious threat, not the number one threat. Is this from Faux News Egypt?

ThreeBays   befriend   ignore   Sat, 16 May 2015, 11:37am PDT   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 11

Other Josh wasn't available for comment.

ThreeBays   befriend   ignore   Sat, 16 May 2015, 10:48am PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 12

Move to a state with no income taxes.

ThreeBays   befriend   ignore   Thu, 14 May 2015, 8:16pm PDT   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 13

Philistine says

Doesn't pencil out for me. The car would be $20,000k (easily more), insurance would double, and I only drive 5000 miles a year @ 21 cents/mile for fuel using current gas prices. I'd essentially pay double my current vehicle expenses to get into an electric car for fuel "savings".

Leasing a new EV can be very cheap.

http://www.mychevysparkev.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=4044

ThreeBays   befriend   ignore   Wed, 6 May 2015, 8:30pm PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 14

What do you think about buying Bay Area real estate at this point? I'm looking in the Penninsula. There are bidding wars going on so winning a property requires bidding well over recent comps. We'd like to own but it seems very risky right now.

ThreeBays   befriend   ignore   Wed, 4 Mar 2015, 9:42am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 15

Wages are stagnating while productivity is rising, because wages have little to do with productivity. Wages are a supply and demand issue.

The supply of unskilled labor is plentiful, and the demand dropped from technological advancement and globalization. The only ways to balance this is for people to move into higher skilled jobs, and/or government involvement in spreading the wealth.

ThreeBays   befriend   ignore   Sat, 21 Dec 2013, 1:27pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 16

thomaswong.1986 says

bgamall4 says

Well, if I had to accept a city with rich and poor divided, at least many of the wealthy in SF actually make stuff. Most in NYC just lend out toxicity. I think Google should not provide a bus for those folks crowding in on SF, but at least Google has a product instead of a lending scam.

Google doesnt make anything.. they provide marketing information and sell adds.

Ask yourself how much RE and Mortgage ads do these portels sprew out ...

They are the NEW madison avenue of this centurey... as if thats good!

They sell everything about you...

Besides that, Google isnt in SF.. SV isnt part of SF, never was... what was the last time SF prime

ever created anything ? Levis and Shipping but that was long ago... Its all Tourists and Conventions

today... not much to speak of...

The resident Google hater is here.

What do you work for a Google competitor or something?

ThreeBays   befriend   ignore   Sat, 21 Dec 2013, 4:40am PST   Share   Quote   Like (2)   Dislike     Comment 17

People think household income of just $75K+ is rich in San Francisco? It's barely enough to survive on for any new family.

ThreeBays   befriend   ignore   Mon, 16 Dec 2013, 2:19pm PST   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 18

dublin hillz says

Between 2010 and 2040, population is projected to grow by 2,148,000 while housing units are projected to increase by only 660,000. So, in essence we will have net extra 1,488,000 competitors for housing compared to 2010. Just peachy!

Umm... no. You will have 700,000 more households competing for 660,000 more housing units.

Oh noes! I bet prices will go up a million percent.

I just hope we get another lane built on the freeways, and self driving cars by then. I don't mind living twice as far if the car will drive itself while I take a nap :).

ThreeBays   befriend   ignore   Mon, 16 Dec 2013, 1:09pm PST   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 19

bgamall4 says

Apparently they don't love it, unless they are in a hurry to sell and get the hell out. Rew says

They want to make it convenient and productive for their employees to get to and from work (wi-fi bus rides for all).

They probably can't afford to go to work without the bus.

The reason for the buses is so that people can work on their laptop for part of the work day instead of being stuck driving their car while breathing in smog for 2 to 3 hours a day commuting from SF to MV. And probably helps to reduce congestion around their campus.

ThreeBays   befriend   ignore   Mon, 16 Dec 2013, 11:29am PST   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 20

Those people on the buses are mostly working on software and hardware, so they are tech-workers. That is primarily what Google employs.

Would you call the sw/hw engineers working at banks "bankers", because the business is primarily banking?

And what was the point of all your pointless arguing thomaswong? Is calling Google a non-tech company going to cause a realignment of the stars?

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