comments by bdrasin

bdrasin   befriend (0)   ignore (0)   Wed, 22 Jun 2016, 10:13am PDT   Like   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 1

BayArea says

I still don't believe for a second that more are leaving than coming. I don't think the article is being totally clear on the details of that stat...

Yes, a net decrease in population should mean a reduction in supply and dropping prices so I'm skeptical. It's like the old joke, "No one goes there anymore, it's too crowded".

bdrasin   befriend (0)   ignore (0)   Mon, 13 Jun 2016, 1:59pm PDT   Like   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 2

Ok then I'm not sure what we are talking about. The original article was about uncounted ballots from the June 7th California primary; I pointed out that this is normal and there's nothing corrupt or underhanded about it, and the ultimate results will in all likelihood be close to the election night results.

If you are just generally grousing about the way the press covers the primary process then fine. But overall the picture painted by the press is accurate; Clinton has won the great majority of delegates and votes and will be the nominee.

bdrasin   befriend (0)   ignore (0)   Mon, 13 Jun 2016, 10:25am PDT   Like   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 3

Dan8267 says

bdrasin says

There's a possibility that the final margin of victory will be somewhat lower (or higher) than that reported on election night, but it's just not plausible that Sanders will win based on the evidence we can see now.

It's not mathematically possible for EITHER candidate to win until the superdelegates vote in July. It's a tie.

I was referring to California only, sorry if that wasn't obvious; the lead of 12% could theoretically be overcome in the uncounted ballots but it's statistically implausible.

Yes, Clinton did not secure the 65% of pledged delegates that it would take to win if ALL the superdelegates voted the other way. But that's not going to happen.

bdrasin   befriend (0)   ignore (0)   Mon, 13 Jun 2016, 9:53am PDT   Like   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 4

The process is very transparent and well understood. All of the valid votes will ultimately be counted, under the watch of observers from both campaigns. The reason for the delay is that mail-in votes have to have signatures manually compared to the signature on file (per CA law) before they are opened, and provisional ballots need to be verified (historically 85-95% are ultimately accepted).

You can follow the count here: http://vote.sos.ca.gov/returns/president/party/democratic/

So far, of the 34k ballots counted since Tuesday night they have broken very close to the same as those counted election night.
Election night:
Clinton: 1,940,580
Sanders: 1,502,043
Total: 3,442,623
= about 56%-44% for Clinton

Total now:
Clinton: 2,128,194
Sanders: 1,653,416
Total: 3,781,610
= about 56%-44% for Clinton

Counted after election night:
Clinton: 187,614
Sanders: 151,373
Total: 338,987
= about 56%-44% for Clinton

Also of interest is the LA registrar/recorder's twiter account, which is providing periodic updates (as well as explaining the process to conspiracy nuts) https://twitter.com/lacountyrrcc?lang=en

There's a possibility that the final margin of victory will be somewhat lower (or higher) than that reported on election night, but it's just not plausible that Sanders will win based on the evidence we can see now.

bdrasin   befriend (0)   ignore (0)   Fri, 10 Jun 2016, 8:50am PDT   Like   Dislike (1)     Share   Quote   Comment 5

Not reading the article because fuck breitbart, but I assume this is a reference to DC vs Heller which, overturning several previous precedents on what types of gun control are allowed. Seeing as that was a 5-4 decision and Scalia was in the majority, it's likely that a Clinton appointee would have ruled differently. It's quite an exaggeration to say that this would do away with the 2nd amendment; if that were true it would mean that we've only had the second amendment from 2008 on which is just ridiculous.

bdrasin   befriend (0)   ignore (0)   Thu, 9 Jun 2016, 7:21pm PDT   Like (1)   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 6

http://www.theonion.com/article/id-you-post-long-aggressive-rants-social-media-say-53070

bdrasin   befriend (0)   ignore (0)   Mon, 6 Jun 2016, 9:50am PDT   Like   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 7

Forget betting on Patnet; PadyPower has Clinton as the favorite, so you must think these are great odds:

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/other-politics/us-politics/-10655393.html#link_91265103&force_racing_css=&ev_desc=California Democratic Primary

Go for it.

bdrasin   befriend (0)   ignore (0)   Tue, 31 May 2016, 9:24am PDT   Like   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 8

iwog says

Sorry, Zoey Tur. They kinda look alike.

bdrasin says

This is just one individual of course and I wouldn't want to extrapolate any conclusions to all trans people everywhere.

That isn't what I did. This is a discussion on how society promotes transgenderism so I'm demonstrating how tolerated this type of behavior is in our society.

Someone who says "MAYBE this is a mental illness" will be crucified.

Well, I think if you just said "I think Zoey Tur is mentally ill" you might get further (that's basically what Adam Corolla said on his show IIRC). She sure doesn't seem healthy...

bdrasin   befriend (0)   ignore (0)   Tue, 31 May 2016, 9:11am PDT   Like   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 9

iwog says

I consider this case proven beyond any reasonable doubt. The fact that Bruce Jenner threatened someone with physical violence for even questioning the biological source of transgender identity, and the wide acceptance of this anti-social behavior, is all the substantiation I need.

http://www.breitbart.com/video/2015/07/16/watch-tur-threatens-to-send-shapiro-home-in-an-ambulance-during-jenner-discussion/

That was Zoey Tur, not Jenner. I was really taken aback by that video because in my life I've never seen a woman threaten a man like that, whereas I've seen men do it to other men fairly regularly. This is just one individual of course and I wouldn't want to extrapolate any conclusions to all trans people everywhere.

bdrasin   befriend (0)   ignore (0)   Mon, 9 May 2016, 4:12pm PDT   Like (1)   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 10

Quigley says

komputodo says


Why I'm voting for Clinton

hah, as if your vote matters and anyone gives a c

And as if this was some huge surprise.

About the data...much of what Trump has said is an exaggerated take on a real issue. Therefore while being technically false, it's still mostly true, or designed to call attention to a problem. He's had his share of stating lies as truth, mostly I believe when he's badly misinformed. Which he is pretty misinformed on a lot of issues, so When he talks about them he says a lot of things that are untrue. This gives great grist for the media mill to cherry pick data for misleading charts.

Oh really? When Trump accused Ted Cruz's father of involvement in JFK assassination, what true problem was he calling attention to?

bdrasin   befriend (0)   ignore (0)   Mon, 9 May 2016, 9:50am PDT   Like   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 11

Not gonna happen. These two are so uncharismatic that they couldn't get votes for free drugs in a crack house

bdrasin   befriend (0)   ignore (0)   Fri, 6 May 2016, 2:23pm PDT   Like   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 12

FP says

iwog says

So based on that online popularity contest, Bernie Sanders obviously won the primaries.

He may win them if they were to redo them in the fall.

Or was the popularity contest taken last year?

Clinton has always been more popular than Sanders among Democrats who, shockingly, are the ones who by and large control the Democratic primary process:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-democratic-primary

bdrasin   befriend (0)   ignore (0)   Fri, 29 Apr 2016, 11:11am PDT   Like   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 13

tatupu70 says

It's fun re-reading the rootvg posts.

We'll be seeing more of this as the Trumpkins will handwave every poll showing Clinton with a crushing lead all the way to November. Some people never learn

bdrasin   befriend (0)   ignore (0)   Thu, 28 Apr 2016, 1:42pm PDT   Like (4)   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 14

Breaking news: Ted Cruz to announce his Supreme Court nominee

bdrasin   befriend (0)   ignore (0)   Mon, 11 Apr 2016, 9:02am PDT   Like   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 15

Yes, there will be a contested convention. And it will be ugly.

bdrasin   befriend (0)   ignore (0)   Fri, 8 Apr 2016, 9:07am PDT   Like   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 16

marcus says

Heraclitusstudent says

You just refuse to admit that "knowing it is very unlikely to exist" is the same as "knowing it doesn't exist".

You're making your own mistake of defining God as a thing that can be known to exist or not. This is common, in fact I would say it is a fact that all atheists that make a big deal of knowing God does not exist are defining what the existence of God would mean in a number of ways.

IF a believer doesn't agree with any of those definitions, then that means the atheist and the believer (at least sometimes) aren't even talking about the same thing.

I have to say, this really sounds like an argument for Theological noncognitivism. If so, then I agree.

bdrasin   befriend (0)   ignore (0)   Sat, 26 Mar 2016, 1:26pm PDT   Like (1)   Dislike (1)     Share   Quote   Comment 17

Relax, the judge rejected her arguments and she's most likely going to prison. Of course her lawyer is arguing that she is innocent, that's his job.

bdrasin   befriend (0)   ignore (0)   Mon, 21 Mar 2016, 12:33pm PDT   Like (1)   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 18

Its my understanding that the charges included child porn of six year olds. That's illegal everywhere.

bdrasin   befriend (0)   ignore (0)   Fri, 11 Mar 2016, 9:19am PST   Like   Dislike (1)     Share   Quote   Comment 19

Whats the big deal? I didn't listen closely (have actual work to do) but it sounds like she just ended a relationship with someone she didn't love, which sounds like it was the right thing to do. And she wants to be someone's homemaker/housewife - so what? There are plenty of people who want that type of relationship.

She should quit smoking though.

bdrasin   befriend (0)   ignore (0)   Tue, 8 Mar 2016, 12:14pm PST   Like   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 20

Great thread. More evidence that Trump has less impulse control than my 7 year old daughter

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