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  • On 1 Sep 2014 in My first real estate bear thread (ever), curious2 said:

    New Renter says

    Texas is the thirty-second richest state in the United States of America, with a per capita income of $19,617 (2000).

    State level comparisons are too broad. Try comparing Houston and SF, and you'll see a 20% difference in after-tax income vs an 80% difference in housing costs.

    indigenous, I do see your point that assets favored by the 1% have gone up more than assets elsewhere, but it relates not only to the Fed supply of money but also to the demand created by fiscal policy that funnels income to the top 1% as iwog has described in other threads. For example, I would point out that vast spending on hospital corporations and pills (Infinite spending! "No lifetime caps!") enriches the CEOs and shareholders in those sectors. SF's biggest industry is hospitals, and that's the industry to be a CEO of right now. To adjust from iwog's point, it isn't only the Fed.

  • On 1 Sep 2014 in My first real estate bear thread (ever), curious2 said:

    indigenous says

    Do you see that?

    I see clearly the demand for housing in the district that you don't seem to appreciate, and the restrictions on supply. These days, when money travels at the speed of light, it isn't reasonable to attribute the difference in prices to the speed at which money arrives somewhere.

  • On 1 Sep 2014 in PatNet to ISIS: Allah Sucks Moosecock, curious2 said:

    APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch says

    I just got a call from the Moose Lodge in town and they're not amused and say they won't put up with any untoward advances by the ISIS people.

    This gives me an idea, a modest proposal to solve the problems of violence and hunger and overpopulation in the Muslim world. It could be a Kickstarter project, to complement Patrick's Divine wine bar.

    Print shops and old printing presses are cheap now, especially the kind where you have to typeset by hand. There are probably plenty of print shops set to crank out Korans for madrassahs. My idea is to buy up a few of these print shops, and change some verses of the Koran.

    Where it says young males must go jihad and convert infidels by the sword, make it say the title of this thread instead, and say the faithful must prove their courage and skill by following that example. Within one generation, millions of young Muslim males will give up the battlefield and go to Alaska in search of moose.

    If, by mistake, some of them end up at a Moose Lodge, just tell the fraternal members of the Loyal Order to close their eyes and think of England.

    BTW, if this idea works, it has great potential for expansion. For example, changing a few lines in the Book of Moron could give those missionaries a bold new mission, of Moose and Morons:

  • On 1 Sep 2014 in My first real estate bear thread (ever), curious2 said:

    New Renter says

    Its not the lack of restrictions.

    It is, actually. TX can build out or up or both. Look at Houston, or Austin. You have your choice of skyscrapers or SFH. Housing prices remain within the normal 2x-5x annual income range, usually nearer 2x, because supply is allowed to meet demand. In SF, you could still build up, but it's prohibited, and likewise there are limits to building out due to park land and bay protection etc.

  • On 1 Sep 2014 in My first real estate bear thread (ever), curious2 said:

    indigenous says

    I'm not angry?

    OK, if you're not angry, then surely you must be able to see that price reflects (a) supply and (b) demand. You are right that TX prices don't skyrocket like SF because TX allows construction to meet demand. But, it is also true that SF prices would not skyrocket if there were not enough demand to cause that. Regardless of how people feel about Rep. Pelosi's legislative record, many are willing to pay for the privilege of living in the district that elected her.

  • On 1 Sep 2014 in My first real estate bear thread (ever), curious2 said:

    New Renter says

    walking up from Oakland.

    Berkeley is beautiful, the hills and the area around campus are among the finest places to live anywhere. Alas the homeless industrial complex and the prison industrial complex and the medical industrial complex have turned Telegraph Avenue into their version of a rendering factory, but other parts of Berkeley remain highly valued and rightly so.

  • On 1 Sep 2014 in My first real estate bear thread (ever), curious2 said:

    New Renter says

    indigenous says

    New Renter says

    No I'm pretty sure Berkeley takes that prize.

    I'm gunna have to go with Pelosi's district.

    I take it you've never been to Berkeley. You probably know West Hollywood though.

    These are all fine places, but they used to be fine and cheap places, and now they have become incredibly expensive fine places.

    indigenous, your market ideology should tell you that the price increase results from higher demand, i.e. many people want to live in these places. If you can't appreciate why, then open your eyes a bit and smell the flowers instead of getting angry and denying observable reality.

  • On 1 Sep 2014 in My first real estate bear thread (ever), curious2 said:

    New Renter says

    You only need to build enough to meet demand. Can SFBA housing demand be met with existing resources? I'd venture absolutely if the political will were there.

    I agree, especially when I see technology like 3D printing and concrete Lego-like houses built by robots, either of which would halve the cost of construction while also improving quality and increasing quantity. In SF, Sears catalog houses that were never designed to last this long have been tarted up and flipped for millions. No matter how much gold leaf you paint on the exterior, the structure remains creaky wood frame, and the height remains 4 storeys max. The technology and resources could build better quality and 10x more quantity in the same space. The fact that does not happen is entirely a function of zoning and planning, which is to say political will.

    But, I don't see it changing soon. Boomer pension funds continue to flood capital into startups, where the winners cash out with so much that housing prices seem cheap and the losers hope to cash out soon in these golden years, "Doing all right, but you gotta get smart Wish upon, wish upon, day upon day." It would take a decade to build enough supply to meet demand at reasonable prices, and that process cannot even begin until the political will is there.

    "SF’s Housing Crisis Explained"

  • On 1 Sep 2014 in Is ADHD a real disorder?, curious2 said:

    Ah yes, the DTC advertising of Rx drugs. (Linked with commentary on ADHD from KevinMD.)

    Advertising Rx drugs DTC is very lucrative but it makes no sense in any other way. The Rx requirement presumes that consumers are too stupid to decide for themselves what they need, which may in fact be true in some cases. The DTC advertisement tells the same consumer audience to "ask your doctor" for a particular drug. The drug companies pay (and otherwise induce) the doctors to say yes, and studies show most doctors tend to do what the drug companies induce them to do and patients ask them to do. So, DTC advertising of Rx drugs defeats the purported purpose of the Rx requirement, and instead results simply in more spending (aka revenue, aka power), which is the real purpose.

    People talk about payment mechanisms, e.g. lemon socialist "market" insurance vs single payer or NHS, but a more basic problem is the artificial demand created by DTC advertising, which collides with the artificial limit on supply created by the Rx requirement. The subsidized Rx confers a perception of value (including an official endorsement) upon what might otherwise be perceived, more accurately, as a dangerous and probably worthless product.

  • On 1 Sep 2014 in Patrick wants to open a competitive wine bar, curious2 said:

    mell says

    APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch says

    Great idea.

    But how about a COMBAT WINEBAR ?

    If you're wrong, someone gets to challenge you to a steel cage match.

    Are Realtors allowed in?

    They're what's for dinner. Their wine will be spiked, so they will misidentify it and pass out helplessly.

  • On 1 Sep 2014 in Is ADHD a real disorder?, curious2 said:

    APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch says

    he attributes to....

    did he mention PhRMA promotion at all, e.g. direct payments and other inducements to prescribers?

  • On 1 Sep 2014 in Patrick wants to open a competitive wine bar, curious2 said:

    APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch says

    COMBAT WINEBAR ?

    I love it. If you spill red wine on your shirt, tell people it's only blood.

  • On 1 Sep 2014 in Patrick wants to open a competitive wine bar, curious2 said:

    It may be a great pair of ideas, but it's definitely two ideas not one.

    Patrick says

    patrons will be encouraged to taste wine and guess which variety it is on their phone.

    That may be a great idea for a smartphone app. You could partner with existing wine bars to promote it, and connect it to social media so people can post their scores and compare or compete with their friends (e.g., if they get a good enough score that they grant permission to show their friends...). You might partner with one or more existing wine bars that might benefit from a new theme or at least an event night; for example, some bars with pool tables have pool league nights, and others have other theme nights to draw other crowds. You or the wine bar owners could partner with wine labels to promote tasting and rating their wines.

    Patrick says

    At a minimum, the project depends on obtaining a liquor license from the city of San Francisco.

    The project depends on that only if you define the project to include starting the wine bar. Those take a lot of time, and hands-on attention.

    Patrick says

    This could be difficult.

    It's only 2pm but I think that will probably win for the understatement of the day award. Also, getting the license would not be the only difficulty in starting a bar, which would need staff and inventory and promotion and on and on.

    In fact, starting a wine bar might actually undercut the app idea. Local wine bar owners might be less likely to partner with you if they think you might try to promote your bar over theirs. Even in other markets, people would look at the success or failure of your wine bar as an indicator of whether your app draws traffic; since a high % of new businesses fail, there is a high risk that a new wine bar might fail, and drag your app down with it.

  • On 28 Aug 2014 in STEM graduate says he can't find a job, curious2 said:

    Rin says

    Your question is incentive

    No, my question is the same as it always was, and you still have not answered.

    But here's the thing - I'm working on the SIWOTI. I am going to take a deep breath, log out, forget about the question, and move on with my life. The answer doesn't even matter anyway, our lives will not be one day longer or shorter because of it, but we will accomplish less in the time allowed if we keep wasting time on it.

    Wish me luck.

  • On 28 Aug 2014 in STEM graduate says he can't find a job, curious2 said:

    Rin says

    What part of this do you not understand?

    Your persistent refusal to answer one simple question, and my SIWOTI that caused me to ask more than once. That's two parts, but I'd settle for understanding the first.

  • On 28 Aug 2014 in STEM graduate says he can't find a job, curious2 said:

    Rin says

    In my scenario, many ppl simply leave to become accountants, actuaries, doctors, or patent agents.

    Do you understand that you have proposed two different scenarios and still not answered the original question? How does the means test encourage that result?

    Here is a sample answer to show what one might look like.

    If there were means testing, then people who want more money would leave the program so they can earn a higher legal income. Without means testing, they would continue to participate in the program, even while earning a higher income, and that would be bad because space aliens or something.

    Do you see how in that sample answer I distinguished between the two versions of your proposal? I observed that there were two versions and I thought through consequences of each. I didn't get emotional about robber barons or Apartheid or whatnot.

  • On 28 Aug 2014 in STEM graduate says he can't find a job, curious2 said:

    You switched your proposal to concentrate resources on encouraging meth labs and unabombers? That's your answer? I'm sorry I asked. I prefer AF's confidence in the inevitability of cannibal anarchy without requiring a new program.

  • On 28 Aug 2014 in STEM graduate says he can't find a job, curious2 said:

    Rin says

    Hey, you tried to confuse an authentic STEM examination system with some housing projects on the south side of town.

    I did no such thing, but you became obsessed with the hypothetical prostitute in 4Z or wherever. Examine her all you like, it makes no difference to me.

  • On 28 Aug 2014 in STEM graduate says he can't find a job, curious2 said:

    Rin says

    you're more concerned about some means-test.

    LOL that was your (second) proposal - don't try to mis-attribute it to me. I was curious about your first proposal, and why you switched to your second, but when I asked that question I got a series of non-responsive and increasingly bizarre comments.

  • On 28 Aug 2014 in STEM graduate says he can't find a job, curious2 said:

    Rin says

    Here's your problem, you're looking for some validation, from some greater forces within society. You need some 'higher up' telling you what's right or wrong.

    No, I swear to you, I was only asking a simple question.

    Rin says

    I'd earned $700K last year.

    There's your problem. It's replaced diligence with arrogance. The question was very simple. I don't even care anymore - your proposal isn't worth the time we've wasted discussing it, no matter how much money you put behind it or how emotionally committed you become to the position. Madoff made lots of money too, and Pete Peterson (whose policy ideas I do read, not because he's "higher up" than you but because he thinks through his policy ideas).

  • On 28 Aug 2014 in STEM graduate says he can't find a job, curious2 said:

    Rin says

    In reality, how many ppl can pass an exam on Thermodynamics and at the same time, show an income less than X, to be sponsored?

    Ted Kaczynski, for one.

    Rin says

    Now, would it be so bad....

    This is a waste of time. There is no point having a lengthy debate when you don't understand the terms you are using and the discrete concepts they represent. It would end with, "Oh, I meant something else." I'll copy and paste a working definition for you, then I'm done.

    Here you go:

    "means-testing, by which poorer [participants] would receive more generous benefits and the wealthy would receive less (or none at all)."

  • On 28 Aug 2014 in STEM graduate says he can't find a job, curious2 said:

    I think you don't understand the definition of means testing. That would explain why you don't understand that you have proposed two different policies, and the likely results of each.

  • On 28 Aug 2014 in STEM graduate says he can't find a job, curious2 said:

    Rin says

    If this person can pass a bunch of science and engineering exams then chances are ... there's some job out there for her. That's the difference.

    I regret, now, having answered your question, because you have not got any closer to answering mine. Please forget the hypothetical prostitute in 4Z or wherever, if you can, at least for a moment. How is Universe B, where you have your second alternate scenario (with the means testing) superior to Universe A (where you have your first alternate scenario, with payment based on measuring results or efforts)?

    Rin says

    In my society....

    You have proposed two different societies based on two different policy environments. I have asked four times why you believe that one of your two proposals is better than the other. I won't trouble you with repeating the question again, we've both wasted more time on it than it's worth.

  • On 28 Aug 2014 in STEM graduate says he can't find a job, curious2 said:

    Rin says

    In my alternate scenario....

    You don't seem to understand, you have proposed two different alternate scenarios. I even rephrased my question to assign each alternate scenario its own parallel universe, but still you repeat the question without answering? You're flailing all over the place, even to Apartheid of all things, perhaps indicating an intensifying emotional reaction without getting any closer to the actual question.

  • On 28 Aug 2014 in STEM graduate says he can't find a job, curious2 said:

    Maybe I need to re-phrase my question.

    curious2 says

    Why have you switched to a means tested program instead of a program that pays based on results or at least effort?

    Picture two parallel universes, identical in every respect except one. In Universe A, you have your original policy, as you explained it in your prior thread on the topic (which I quoted above). In Universe B, you have your changed policy, which is based on means testing, which you introduced in this new thread. Please can you explain, why is Universe B superior to Universe A?

    Rin says

    Once a smart person makes money illicitly, why would he want to take exams, every two years in Complex Variables or Non-Linear Dynamical Systems?

    People have families. This was part of the dynamic in Pruitt-Igoe; the issue is not only the prostitute in apartment 4Z or whatever, but also her three kids, who shoplift. A legal stipend like aid to women with dependent children provides a nice cover for how you make a living, while the illicit cash piles up along with toys bought with cash and accumulating in a barn somewhere. Also, you seem to have assumed, mistakenly, that the prostitute in 4Z (or whatever) isn't smart; in fact, she is acting rationally within her policy environment, and succeeding by evolutionary terms.

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