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  • On 17 Sep 2014 in Another $Trillion in debt in just 12 months as Jefferson says, Bellingham Bill said:

    darlag says

    in 2008

    what happened in 2008 was the 2002-2007 debt edifice collapsing like a WTC tower.

    people started defaulting on their loans because they ran out of money.

    The Fed cannot run out of money, not unless the Executive appoints super hawks and/or Congress takes its toys away.

    It will happen again whether or not you believe otherwise.

    This is just your own belief system doing the talking.

    The fact is the world economy is covered corner to corner with fiat currency systems now. This is not the 19th century or the 1920s, nor the 1970s.

    I don't pretend to understand or foresee what's going to happen over the next 30 years (if I could, simple currency hedging would make me a billionaire), but I do know our macro systems can remain crazier than the observer can remain sane.

    I think what's gone on 1984-now is going to continue through to 2044 and beyond.

    shows how 2000-2010 was The Great Leveraging.

    We'll figure out how to do it again. Life is so great when everyone can borrow money, as much as they want.

  • On 17 Sep 2014 in Three strikes and gold is out, Bellingham Bill said:

  • On 16 Sep 2014 in Stop predicting the dollar will collapse, Bellingham Bill said:

    more debt, more interest, more money, more inflation.

    but: also more opportunity, more business, more jobs, more actual wealth as more people contribute to the economy in producing goods and services instead of sitting around starving.

  • On 16 Sep 2014 in Stop predicting the dollar will collapse, Bellingham Bill said:

    What cost $100 in 1800 would cost $48.89 in 1850.

    What cost $100 in 1850 would cost $100.10 in 1900.

    What cost $100 in 1900 would cost $288.67 in 1950.

    What cost $100 in 1950 would cost $714.61 in 2000.

  • On 16 Sep 2014 in Stop predicting the dollar will collapse, Bellingham Bill said:

    The Professor says

    Do you think it was a bunch of gold or a murderous political fight culminating in the civil war that caused the plunge of the dollars value?

    What cost $100 in 1849 would cost $108.00 in 1854. (mild inflation)
    What cost $100 in 1854 would cost $99.96 in 1859. (stasis)
    What cost $100 in 1859 would cost $173.97 in 1864. (very inflation, 2x that of the 1970s)
    What cost $100 in 1864 would cost $85.18 in 1869. (deflation)

  • On 14 Sep 2014 in Stop predicting the dollar will collapse, Bellingham Bill said:

    1980-now = Potemkin Village

  • On 14 Sep 2014 in Stop predicting the dollar will collapse, Bellingham Bill said:

    marcus says

    represented in the graph

    actually the main point of that graph was the shaded areas; it's one of the few FRED graphs that goes back to the 1850s, when the Fed starts counting recessions.

  • On 14 Sep 2014 in Stop predicting the dollar will collapse, Bellingham Bill said:

    iwog says

    A much larger share of wealth was given to the working class

  • On 14 Sep 2014 in CA budget deficit was closed by taxes on the rich, Bellingham Bill said:

    when you go can I have your stuff?

  • On 14 Sep 2014 in Stop predicting the dollar will collapse, Bellingham Bill said:

    tatupu70 says

    Deflation doesn't cure itself naturally in short order. It's ugly, painful, and VERY unproductive.

    is a FRED graph showing the recessionary periods of the 19th century

  • On 14 Sep 2014 in CA budget deficit was closed by taxes on the rich, Bellingham Bill said:

    Walters is the center-right clown in the Bee.

    Better to tax the rich than borrow from them!

  • On 14 Sep 2014 in Stiglitz vs. Krugman on Scotland; Polls Diverge; New Fearmongering Tactics, Bellingham Bill said:

    Original here if you want of avoid Mike's crap take on it

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/comment/columnists/there-is-no-basis-for-this-scaremongering-but-this-is-not-just-about-money.25313968

    Scotland does have the population of a Norway or Denmark.

    Not quite the resource base though!

    Their population pyramid looks a bit troublesome:

    but it's probably better to have too few people (and mouths to feed) than too many!

  • On 14 Sep 2014 in Interesting early American Capitalist, Bellingham Bill said:

    (I am endlessly fascinated by the story of a continent full of riches free for the taking)

  • On 14 Sep 2014 in Nevada gives $1.3 billion to Tesla but can't afford a medical school, Bellingham Bill said:

    It's important to note that the bulk of the tax subsidies is just not being taxed on bringing newly purchased capital -- the stuff it needs to make batteries -- into Nevada.

    This is not an operating subsidy per se.

    (20% or whatever of the tax package are transferable tax credits are are thus more like a handout)

  • On 13 Sep 2014 in Dear iPhone 6 users, welcome to 2012!, Bellingham Bill said:

    SFace says

    his is the first time I feel bearish for apple as this may be it for product pipeline

    kinda feeling that way, too. They don't move like a company whose market cap is 3X that of INTC and NVDA combined.

    The Mac Pro was a fart in the bathtub as far as I'm concerned. Apple should produce that kit at the $1200 price point, where newegg aficionados like me just throw up their hands and say 'how did Apple do that? ? ?'

    Haswell CPU w/ an upgradeable GPU, what's your damage, Apple???

    BoomAndBustCycle says

    Nothing goes mainstream until apple adds the feature!

    Back when the iMac came out I bought my mom one at CompUSA. I knew the puck mouse was kack so I wanted to get a regular mouse for here, but in mid-1998 CompUSA was selling NO USB MICE at all. (!)

    Windows only supported USB with OSR2 and NT4, and every machine still had PS/2 ports, so nobody in Wintel land was committed to USB.

    bob2356 says

    Apple came out with Itunes which had the content.

    Apple also cornered the supply of 1.8" drives from Toshiba, which gave them a monopoly on gigabyte players small enough to (easily) fit in a pocket.

  • On 13 Sep 2014 in Dear iPhone 6 users, welcome to 2012!, Bellingham Bill said:

    bob2356 says

    Just bought a super cheap dumb clamshell to replace my android smartphone.

    this is my communicator:

    /cold dead hands

    Minimum $80/yr pre-paid (400 minutes, add'l minutes are 20c each)

    With the phone part covered, I'm looking at either iPod Touch, an iPad, an nVidia Shield tablet, or the upcoming Nexus 9.

    I have a low tolerance for jankiness, but I think Android L might be where Android finally reaches parity with iOS.

    As an app developer, I'm interested in Android's evolution to the desktop, and think it might come through tablets (along with Chromebooks of course).

  • On 13 Sep 2014 in Dear iPhone 6 users, welcome to 2012!, Bellingham Bill said:

    thunderlips11 says

    what an innovation!

    do not intentionally miss what Apple innovated with the iPhone in 2007-2008.

    Like the Mac in 1984-86, they showed the world how to put the pieces together correctly.

    Apple didn't invent touch computing, PowerVR tile-based rendering, Gorilla Glass, but they had the product engineering chops in 2005-2006 to integrate it all into a single performant package, and in 2008 sprinkled on top the APIs and AppStore that enabled ISVs to bring mobile computing to the masses.

    Microsoft, Blackberry, Motorola, Palm, Nokia -- all the established players -- were wiped off the map by this masters class in innovation.

    Google was able to tack quickly enough in 2008-2009 to chase Apple's taillights and become the 2nd banana before the majors recovered their footing.

    Being interested in the mobile space, I've owned a first-gen PalmPilot, a Sharp SL-5000D, Sony CliƩ T615C, and an HTC PPC-6700, and also know about Handspring and Nokia's efforts in the first half of the 2000s to develop their respective platforms.

    Apple's iPhone came from another planet, man. The pieces were there to be picked up in 2005, but putting them together the right way the way Apple did was brilliant (Nokia was closest but didn't have the software competency to produce the API or graphics stack to do what Apple was doing, UI-wise).

    Sadly, since then Apple has done little of that calibre. I'd love for them to monkey around in the PC space, making the next Amiga 500 or something (hint: it'd be a tablet that somehow drives a TV)

  • On 13 Sep 2014 in Dear iPhone 6 users, welcome to 2012!, Bellingham Bill said:

    A clarification of market share; Android has 52% and Apple has 42% of US sales.

    However, when we eliminate ghetto purchasers (people with no money) and look at just app revenue, in 2013 Google app revenue was 13% of Apple's App Store's.

    I don't mean to sound elitist or overly fanboi here -- it is true that Apple's event last week was relaunching stuff first shipped in the Android world and highly disappointing to me.

    Now, Apple appears to have worked harder and smarter to get the major banks on their side for their NFC effort, and that's worth something (a system, like a chain, is only as strong as its weakest link).

    As for the watch, if it were radically thin I'd be spooged out now, but as it stand now I have zero interest to mount a brick on my wrist, 18k or no.

    I'm also looking forward to the upcoming Nexus 9. I'm in the market for a new tablet and if the specs are what's rumored (64-bit K1, 4GB RAM) I'll get one, since Apple does seem to be too dilatory about expanding and updating its various offerings.

    As I mentioned elsewhere on the web, it's kinda comical that I'm waiting for Intel to ship Broadwell H, nVidia to ship its 900M series, Samsung to ship its PCIe NVMe M.2 SSD, and Sharp to rev its 4K displays, just so Apple can tell Foxconn what goes in the Macbook Pros the latter is making in Shenzhen.

    Apple is something of a fifth wheel in PCs these days. They make a killer laptop, but it wouldn't surprise me if the Chromebook doesn't eat its lunch here eventually. The Nexus 9 is rumored to have a 2560 x 1440 display (330DPI)-- my current MBP has a 1440x900 display!

    There's no technical reason Chromebook and Chromebox can't self-host (build the OS on the device); when that happens, all bets are off!

  • On 13 Sep 2014 in Nevada gives $1.3 billion to Tesla but can't afford a medical school, Bellingham Bill said:

    Papercut says

    maybe they should just cut corporate tax rates for all companies.

    cut the bullshit taxes like taxing corporations when they install new production lines.

    raise taxes a lot on usage of land area -- unimproved land value tax -- instead.

    the core problem is corporations now hold the whip hand in our economy; they own the media, and the politicians, because the electorate has the collective IQ of a potato right now and is easily swayed by BS.

    Too bad accommodative tax rates can't just be the norm for all businesses.

  • On 13 Sep 2014 in Nevada gives $1.3 billion to Tesla but can't afford a medical school, Bellingham Bill said:

    marcus says

    That sales tax exemption for the batteries is probably actually be passed on to the consumer

    I believe the sales tax exemption for Tesla is for equipment purchased for their plant, not their consumer products, but I could be wrong.

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