comments by Bellingham Bill

Bellingham Bill   befriend (0)   ignore (3)   Fri, 5 Feb 2016, 7:01pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 1

bob2356 says

No one laughed at apples windows. It worked.

. . . minimally. PCs sold 2 million units in 1984 and Macs 372,000.

in '85 PCs rose to 3.7M and Macs fell to 200,000.

The Mac's failure its second year was the main reason Jobs got booted from the company that fall.

But the 1MB Mac Plus in Jan '86, along with PageMaker and the Laserwriter (released in mid-85), plus some much-needed OS polishing, made the Mac into a serious contender.

Microsoft wasn't standing still, but the x86 platform was such crap back then (still is, but was then too) it was a miracle they could ship anything to anybody.

Xerox's productization of the PARC stuff was the Star. Which was a super-deluxe office computer very similar to the Lisa, which failed for the same reasons the Lisa failed, and for the same reason the NeXT was going to fail in the 1990s. People want sub-$1,000 PCs, not $10,000+ personal workstations.

Bellingham Bill   befriend (0)   ignore (3)   Thu, 4 Feb 2016, 7:10pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 2

hope solo says

I don't see those two lines going in opposite directions.

the doubling of the red line since 2000 is actually suppressing the rise of the blue line -- the 2001 recession cut the incipient wage inflation of the late 90s in the bud.

Bellingham Bill   befriend (0)   ignore (3)   Tue, 2 Feb 2016, 8:08pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 3

blue is real per-worker wages

red is real per-worker corporate profits

Bellingham Bill   befriend (0)   ignore (3)   Tue, 2 Feb 2016, 6:48pm PST   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike (1)     Comment 4

it is possible there will be brokered GOP convention, with Cruz, Trump, Rubio having 25% each and the others having the pivotal 25%.

Trump is the master deal maker, so he'd like to stay in for that.

Bellingham Bill   befriend (0)   ignore (3)   Tue, 2 Feb 2016, 6:45pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 5

real (2015 dollars) after-tax corporate profits since 1950

stunning how they were flat 1950-1970, fell back down 1980-86, doubled during the Clinton years, then nearly tripled 2001-2007.

Bellingham Bill   befriend (0)   ignore (3)   Mon, 1 Feb 2016, 9:45pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 6

In June 2008 I called the S&P at 1050 by the end of the year.

And I was going long after December 2008, buying BAC calls etc. Full of Hopium, eh.

The 1Q panic was a bit deeper than I foresaw, but when the dust settled the market was right where I thought it would be, ~1100.

Bellingham Bill   befriend (0)   ignore (3)   Mon, 1 Feb 2016, 7:15pm PST   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 7

When the votes were counted, Upton Sinclair got 37% of the vote, the Republican candidate got 48% and a third-party progressive candidate took another 13%. [Goddammit!] Had it been a two-man race, or had Sinclair been less intellectually honest and more of a politician, he would likely have become Governor of California and the EPIC pension plan might well have become the California model.

(In a classic exercise in political hubris, Sinclair detailed his EPIC plan in a book published in 1933, with the confident title "I, Governor of California And How I Ended Poverty: A True Story of the Future." Following the election he would publish another book with the humbled title "I, Candidate for Governor and How I Got Licked.")

Bellingham Bill   befriend (0)   ignore (3)   Mon, 1 Feb 2016, 7:05pm PST   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 8

iwog says

Unfortunately it can't see the light of day until Americans are brutally punished economically and fix congress.

yup, 1930-1933 scale punishment I guess.

As for 10% higher taxes, my LLs have taken much, much more than that since 2000.

All taxes come out of rents.

Bellingham Bill   befriend (0)   ignore (3)   Mon, 1 Feb 2016, 7:02am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 9

mmmarvel says

Both candidates are the worst of the worst.

Sanders? What exactly do you object about him?

As for Trump, reading a book on Upton Sinclair, I came across the H L Mencken quote:

"The longer I live, the more I am convinced that the common people are doomed to be diddled forever."

Bellingham Bill   befriend (0)   ignore (3)   Sat, 30 Jan 2016, 5:34pm PST   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 10

Krugman's a liberal, but that's not synonymous with leftist, despite what ~50% of the country has been brainwashed to believe.

The current GOP is so far to the right that center-right peeps like Krugman look pink, but that's just the current Overton settings we're in.

As for Sanders vs. Clinton, I couldn't care less really.

Sanders aligns with my views much more, but I intensely dislike his pie-in-the-sky sales job on his single payer plan.

You can't lead from outer space like that, change has to come from the middle, and with the understanding that this is a bitterly divided country, on so many things.

With the GOP/conservative machine in blocking positions all over the place . . . House, Senate, SCOTUS, media, talk radio, propaganda outfits like Heritage, state governments, the Deep State, etc etc.

Bellingham Bill   befriend (0)   ignore (3)   Sat, 30 Jan 2016, 10:40am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 11

iwog says

Everyone with a brain including almost everyone on this board believes the Austrian cult and are filled with brain damaged idiots

I was reading an old Wired at work and they had an article on the founder/operator of Silk Road, the guy was infected with Misean bullshit, went all libertarian "Fuck The Man, man".

Well, The Man fucked back, LOL.

Bellingham Bill   befriend (0)   ignore (3)   Thu, 28 Jan 2016, 7:46pm PST   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike (2)     Comment 12

funny thing is, here in the real world and not conservatard fantasy land, the better the public sector, the better the society.

Being born e.g. Norwegian, Danish, German, or Japanese is winning the birth lottery.

Being born American, Chinese, Somalian, etc, not-so-much.

Our public sector isn't terrible, but it's been under attack for all my life, and I'm no spring chicken.

Bellingham Bill   befriend (0)   ignore (3)   Thu, 28 Jan 2016, 7:22pm PST   Share   Quote   Like (2)   Dislike (1)     Comment 13

I heard Rubio say we need a stronger military, that Obama isn't keeping us safe.

Thus far we've had a handful of shooting and bombing incidents, a "stronger military" will do fuck-all against all that.

Plus all Obama's done is unwind the rising defense expense he inherited:

(real defense spending, 2015 dollars)

Bellingham Bill   befriend (0)   ignore (3)   Wed, 27 Jan 2016, 6:29pm PST   Share   Quote   Like (2)   Dislike (1)     Comment 14

Happiest countries:

1) Denmark
2) Norway
3) Switzerland
4) Netherlands
5) Sweden
6) Canada
7) Finland
8) Austria
9) Iceland
10) 'Stralia

The "socialism" quotient is particularly high, the populations are rather low, the ag/mineral/fishery wealth is decent, and the culture is historically White.

Not that we don't have our white trash here, but driving around town last week I saw a minority family waiting for the bus-- man, mother and I assume her 5 children.

I felt sorry for the kids, for the mother for not planning her life better, taxpayers for having to support this family, and our country for still not having a grip on poverty and the growth of the poor in this country.

Theoretically, one of these kids could be a rocket scientist, state Governor, or even President, but the odds are kinda stacked against them here.

Anyhoo, mathematically, high taxation on the top 1% and top 0.1% is basically demanded to retain long-run stability in our socio-economic system.

The 1% have a million ways to beat money out of the poors, the poors only have 2, and one's felony robbery.

To paraphrase the 1970s masterpiece Network, the Rich have taken billions of dollars out of our economy, now they must put it back.

Bellingham Bill   befriend (0)   ignore (3)   Tue, 26 Jan 2016, 6:53am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 15

Logan Mohtashami says

We are basically headline back to 2000 levels with more inventory but a lot less mortgage buyers when rates were at 8% back in 2000 and a lot less working Americans too

Granted, the baby boom was age 36 - 54 in 2000, prime age to dabble in the housing boom/bubble of 2002-2006.

echoers are still filing into their home-buying years:

shows how the echo is going to be a bigger surge into housing. Median echoer is 25 this year . . .

Bellingham Bill   befriend (0)   ignore (3)   Mon, 25 Jan 2016, 10:15pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 16

blue is real corporate profits, red is real consumer net borrowing, green is Fed QE money pumps.

boomers are not a drag on the economy they are a tractor.

this economy needs consumer demand, so boomers heading off into retirement are going to be great.

ssa and medicare spending / workers age 25-54

helluva jobs program we've got going this decade and next.

Plus median millennial is age 25, just about ready to start borrowing in earnest, like his parents did in the 70s and 80s.

Median boomer was age 25 in 1980, and they put Volcker in to try to stop the consumer debt inflation going on.

Bellingham Bill   befriend (0)   ignore (3)   Mon, 25 Jan 2016, 10:02pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 17

marcus says

he only has something like 14% of the general population

Ah, but a Hillary / Trump / Bloomberg race would be interesting.

Bloomberg is liberal enough to peel away plenty of Hillary votes, for those people who prefer maintaining their special snowflake personal purity over actual election outcomes.

There was a 30 seat swing to make Pelosi speaker in 2006, and the Dems need a bit more than half that to take the House this year, but I don't see that happening.

The GOP House -- voting by delegation -- might just put Trump in this time.

Bellingham Bill   befriend (0)   ignore (3)   Sat, 23 Jan 2016, 6:12pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 18

as for Sanders' tax plan, the GOP took over the House in 2010 and the Senate in 2014.

Even if Dems somehow retake these seats by 2024, they're not going to be liberal-left Dems.

Logan Mohtashami says

More people driving, going to work

Baby boom is age 52 to 70, ~25% into retirement.

Echoers are age 16 to 34, first year they're all into driving age is this year. Taking age 22 as when people really start driving, that's still a 2/3 take-up of driving among the 2nd dominant demographic.

So over the next decade we've got 3/4 of the boomers entering retirement vs. 1/3 millennials to start driving.

Bellingham Bill   befriend (0)   ignore (3)   Sat, 23 Jan 2016, 6:00pm PST   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 19

Madera to Fresno sounds about right.

Door-to-door by car is ~30 minutes

The shinkansen in Japan doesn't blast through big cities like Tokyo, it goes around 50 I guess until it's in more open ground.

It's 24 miles from Fresno to Madera, so call it 10 miles going 50, 10 miles accelerating to 150, then 4 miles braking to 0 gives about a 20 minute ride.

Saving that 10 minutes is going to be great.

Voting for this train boondoggle in 2008 is one of the few votes I regret. Self-driving cars and a smarter road grid is a much better investment.

Bellingham Bill   befriend (0)   ignore (3)   Thu, 21 Jan 2016, 7:43pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 20

Hillary is a more moderate Republican than Trump.

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