comments by Bellingham Bill

Bellingham Bill   befriend   ignore   Tue, 1 Sep 2015, 6:51pm PDT   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 1

China FX, Small picture:

Big picture:

Bellingham Bill   befriend   ignore   Sun, 23 Aug 2015, 11:58am PDT   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 2

Quigley says

NEITHER party wants an end to war

shows that Clinton left real defense spending $75B/yr lower than he found it, and that current spending is now the same as it was before Obama took office.

There's a difference between "ending war" -- difficult to do w/o being accused of "cut & run" / "abandoning the boys" etc , and NOT STARTING THEM IN THE FIRST PLACE.

Granted, LBJ got fucked over Vietnam, "that bitch of a war" in his words.

Bellingham Bill   befriend   ignore   Sat, 22 Aug 2015, 11:30am PDT   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike (1)     Comment 3

Yup, and it's important to understand HOW the rich are pulling money out of the backs of the working quintiles aka paycheck economy.

Real Estate? Trillions in an asymmetric flow from sucker rent-slave (and let's not forget the small business owner needing retail space is also one of these) to an entitled owner.

Health Care? Twice the profit margin on the health goods and services provided vs. the rest of the world. Maybe a trillion being pulled out of the paycheck economy, all those dentists with their investment clubs is an indication of the imbalance.

Corporate profits in general is close to $1.8T/yr, that's money that could have gone into paychecks but sure as hell isn't now.

Even Piketty didn't analyze these flows all this well AFAIK.

Bellingham Bill   befriend   ignore   Sat, 22 Aug 2015, 11:18am PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 4

The Dow is a bullshit index. Don't look at it unless you're a day trader.

Meanwhile, real corporate profits:

red is S&P 500. FRED used to have more data on that series, and it matched profits pretty closely, actually.

Bellingham Bill   befriend   ignore   Thu, 20 Aug 2015, 5:40am PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 5

hanera says

y/o/y inventory increase and not decrease for those cities.

there can be an increase, but it's not going to be enough to meet pent-up demand.

and that's before we get everyone leaving BK/default jail starting around now, or the fact that the top half of Gen Y is age 25-34 next year, while the boomers are still in their houses, with the median boomer at age 61, still a year away from early SSA retirement.

Bellingham Bill   befriend   ignore   Wed, 19 Aug 2015, 8:24pm PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 6

I agree with iwog here of course.

Wish I could dig up my old analysis of the market, I had one with 4 - 5 different cases.

Didn't foresee the case of low overall inflation ($3 gas! In 2006 I thought it'd be $6 by now!) low interest rate environment, long-term ZIRP, yet a rock-solid economy (for the top 2 quintiles at least).

Don't know how much of the boom is just social media work, but damn if that didn't exist 10 years ago. Google was barely on anyone's radar then. Well, it had risen 4X over its IPO, not too shabby.

Bellingham Bill   befriend   ignore   Wed, 19 Aug 2015, 8:20pm PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 7

hanera says

shows y/o/y inventory increase in Cupertino.

you call that inventory? Just the people Apple hired last week could take that supply out.

What if there were only 20 cars for sale in all of 95014? Well, of course, people could go outside and buy elsewhere.

Can't do that with real estate, LOL.

Bellingham Bill   befriend   ignore   Fri, 14 Aug 2015, 12:55pm PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 8

The Reasonable Man says

It takes more than two to make up a SCOTUS decision.

This is perhaps the weakest argument I've seen on the internet in 20+ years of reading. You get hit in the head with a bat or brick when you were a kid? Eat paint chips?

At any rate, I'm actually OK with Citizen's United, since it increases freedom.

If this nation is too stupid to see through the resulting blizzards of electioneering BS, so be it.

Hobby Lobby decision sucks because it reduces freedom. Also a recent two-vote decision from the SCOTUS.

Bellingham Bill   befriend   ignore   Fri, 14 Aug 2015, 12:40pm PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 9

errc says

the gullibility of the American Democrat voters

it's not just one bloc, it's everyone.

People are free to form new parties, but that is a losing battle, it's much more effective to just change the policy platform of an existing major party that already has major mindshare and power centers.

That's what happened to the GOP, 1964-1994, they went from centrist to the far-right of Gingrich and Rove, picking up the racist south and midwest, plus the 'family values' idiots who were Democrat stalwarts prior to the Nixon/Reagan transition.

People here who have the beginning of a semblance of a clue are maybe 5% of the population. People who think they understand great Inner Party truths but in reality are just walking examples of the Dunning-Kruger effect are around 60%. The remaining 1/3 are the muddled middle too busy or ground down by the ratrace we call an economy to care one way or the other.

The nordic eurosocialist utopias have some pretty deep imbalances and idiocies, but what % of the country here even gets exposed to the barest of facts about them, or Germany, UK, Canada and Australia's socio-economic situation and recent socio-economic lessons? 1%. Probably not.

Everybody here is mentally confined into very small ideological and historical fenced pens, where the gamut of opinion runs from MSNBC to FOX, or America Now! and rightwing talk radio if you're really adventurous.

An idiot electorate is a manipulated electorate. And we're so, so idiotic.

Bellingham Bill   befriend   ignore   Fri, 14 Aug 2015, 12:28pm PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 10

iwog says

I've made it clear that nothing any president does will stop a deflationary depression at this point.

corporate profits, 2015 dollars. Seems like we have a new trend here . . . 1950s even prosperity, a top, or a rest before the next leg up??

Bellingham Bill   befriend   ignore   Fri, 14 Aug 2015, 7:51am PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 11

yeah I was looking at a Leaf again but with my gallon/day commute it doesn't pencil out.

Anything less than $100/mo operating cost and why bother with EV!

My IC engine at least should have another 50,000 miles in it, that's 8 years of driving.

I hope to be back in Japan by 2023 away.

Bellingham Bill   befriend   ignore   Thu, 13 Aug 2015, 2:55pm PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 12

blue is jobs in mfg, retail, info, wholesale, transportation, and construction

red is 30% of the 15-64 workforce

showing we're about 15M jobs short of historical full employment in these sectors, and 8M jobs short of where we were in 2008 before everything went to shit.

Like a game of musical chairs, the marginal people get shut out of the job market when there ain't enough jobs.

Bellingham Bill   befriend   ignore   Thu, 13 Aug 2015, 2:32pm PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 13

"In many cases, I probably identify more as Democrat" -- Trump, 2004

Now there's a GOP candidate I can get behind!

Bellingham Bill   befriend   ignore   Thu, 13 Aug 2015, 1:15pm PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 14

I guess I was unfair to parents, since as a society we do need ongoing generational replacement every 18 years.

We're not particularly under or overcrowded, so I guess 2.1 kids per couple should be the standard allotment with no brownie points for 0 kids.

I'll have to cutback in other areas to enjoy my 3.5gpm showers . . .

mebbe get a composting toilet. with negative air pressure models, you can't even smell it!

Bellingham Bill   befriend   ignore   Thu, 13 Aug 2015, 11:01am PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 15

kinda looks like iwog's image now dunnit

this is what Trump is on about vis-a-vis China and Mexico

Actually, here's the top 10 deficits for 1H15:

1 China -$31.5B on $226B imported
2 Germany -6.4 on $60B
3 Mexico -6.1 on $145B
4 Japan -5.2 on $65B
5 Vietnam -3.0 on $18B
6 Korea, South -2.5 on $37B
7 Canada -2.5 on $150B
8 Italy -2.4 on $22B
9 Ireland -2.4 on $19B
10 France -1.7 on $23B

http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/highlights/toppartners.html#def

China, Germany, and Japan are the big criminals here, Mexico, not so much.

But Perot did say "giant sucking sound" about NAFTA in 1992, and that proved to be true.

Bellingham Bill   befriend   ignore   Thu, 13 Aug 2015, 8:32am PDT   Share   Quote   Like (2)   Dislike     Comment 16

"The standard for showerheads will change to 1.8 gallons per minute maximum flow rate starting July 1, 2018"

Nothing a drill press can't fix . . .

I didn't have kids so I'll take double my water allotment from the state, thanks.

Bellingham Bill   befriend   ignore   Thu, 13 Aug 2015, 7:40am PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 17

iwog says

Why don't you explain how excessive debt caused the fed to need 0% interest rates?

Federal debt to GDP was 30% in 1980, and in the 60%s in the 1990s - 2007.

It's been just above 100% since late 2012.

At 100% debt to GDP, each pp rise in the interest rate paid on the debt is essentially a 1% of GDP negative growth applied to the economy, as interest payments mostly vanish from the economy since the debt is held by "savers" not spenders.

We're actually not quite at 100% debt to GDP, since there's $4T of intergovernmental debt, $7T of non-held-by-public debt if we count the Fed, and we should.

So the true picture of federal debt to GDP:

Bellingham Bill   befriend   ignore   Wed, 12 Aug 2015, 8:44pm PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 18

A 'no' vote from Clinton in 2002 would not have stopped the AUMF from passing, as there were 12 red-state (D) senators voting yes to support Bush.

Plus Leiberman, pushing the yes contingent to a filibuster-proof 61. Plus back then things didn't get filibustered like the (R)s started under Obumma.

So Clinton straddled and triangulated in 2002, speechifying at the vote that we needed to support the president but it was his call to take the nation to war, preferably with final UN sanction.

"two emails that traversed the device while she was secretary of state contained information that warranted one of the government's highest levels of classification."

OMG. That sounds so serious. ::eyeroll::

Bellingham Bill   befriend   ignore   Wed, 12 Aug 2015, 5:38pm PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 19

Heraclitusstudent says

at a time when it becomes difficult to build more freeways/airports without it being completely useless

There is urban china with 3 populations of United States, and rural China with another population of United States.

China's ghost cities are out in the sticks, in an attempt at remote localities drumming up new immigrants.

Chongking, Hubei and Hunan have a population of 150M total and these are just 3 medium-density provinces.

I haven't been any closer to China than Seoul, but a nation of 1.35 billion people who came out of the economic dark ages in 1985 still have a massive amount of infrastructural investment to work on 30 years on.

"all extra profits will go to the top, because the job market doesn't require us to pay more wages".

demographically, China is going to run out of 20 yos:

well, see that group fall 30% from the peak at least.

Bellingham Bill   befriend   ignore   Wed, 12 Aug 2015, 1:31pm PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 20

Heraclitusstudent says

But that means losing revenues

We're just stuck in the Triffin Dilemma again.

How come corporate profits are pushing $2T/yr if everything is so fragile?

Granted, in real terms they've topped out:

Chinese will get richer and start consuming" story doesn't work and will not happen.

China is so big it's basically 4+ United States. 1/4 of China is most certainly consuming and becoming middle class in the western / East Asian "tiger" sense.

I don't know what China's problem is but from 10 time zones away it looks like they're not doing socio-economic policy all that well (e.g. real estate sector BS).

And like post-Soviet Russia they seem to have a lot of crony capitalism going on, Party insiders operating for their private benefit at the public's expense.

I think the macro situation is too complex for anyone to get a grip on. Just a FRED graph or two isn't going to clarify where we're going with this.

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