College educated Americans with dual incomes we will be buying more homes
plus there will be the beginning of the Boomer Die-Off, median boomer will be 65 in 2020, potentially freeing supply.
In California tho thanks to Prop 13/58 protection it'll make tons of sense to convert these properties into rentals.
Great job, Howard Jarvis.
shows how the demographics are driving renters growth, most people in their 20s ain't going to be buying, so if they move out of their parents' place it's going to be in a van by the river or an apartment.
conservatives want to point the finger at black people or jewish bankers, not their own fucked "free market" deregulation ideology that actually produced the mortgage fraud bubble of 2004-2007.
There is zero sitting in the the SSTF.
assuming the Treasury loses its power to tax the US economy, yes.
otherwise SSA owns $2.7T of money-good treasury debt.
. It is sometimes reported that Social Security's current costs exceed its revenue, but if that happened, we wouldn't need a report to tell us.
Actually there's $2.7T sitting in the SSTF, ~$1.7T of that was supposed to pay out the boomers' SSA checks to the extent FICA pay-in from the boomer echo and Gen X didn't cover it.
Aside from the inspirational stories of subprime lending, here's what really happened:
Our consumer goods supply pipeline is so efficient
and below capacity
is the % over contribution of FICA receipts, i.e. how much the trust fund balance rose / total FICA payments
There's currently $2.7T sitting in the SSTF, for the General Fund to pay these bonds off as per the Greenspan Deal of 1986 has been framed as an incipient crisis by the right.
They think any tax rise is a crisis though, so there's that.
the irony is that SF is the home of Georgism.
Henry George said he got his key insight while somewhere in the east bay, looking at all the ripening land there.
reading this makes my head hurt.
"derive strength" apparently means prices shooting up to the moon or something.
why are housing starts so low when the baby boom echo is age 15-33 and the boomers are still occupying their housing too?
When I was going to college my housemate/pal/coworker got free rent managing the condo near campus his parents owned.
Place cost $200,000, mortgage rates were 10% so with a $160,000 loan that had an operating cost of around $1300/mo, total rents collected were $1100/mo so his free rent was a ~$200/mo cost to his parents.
So my housing costs for the 5 years were $24,000, his were -$24,000.
Appreciation petered out in the 1990s:
but of course roared back in the Bush economy; being incredibly smart people, his parents bought in the 80s and sold at the peak in 2007.
"Beating productive people down to give it to the unproductive"
The funny thing is that with land, this is how the private sector is structured and operates, the unproductive rent-seekers beat money out of their wealth-producing renters.
And not just working stiffs, nearly all small business owners (unless they got a taco truck or something) face this hidden taxman in the form of the commercial real estate lessor.
Nobody makes land, so people profiting from its ownership are getting something for nothing.
Granted, the capital good required to provide housing/office space on this land is a bona-fide capital investment, but that's not the whole story with real estate.
As the RE scumfucks say, it's mostly "location, location, location", and the owners have nothing to do with the value of that.
This is so plain-as-day obvious that nobody can really see it. But when you do, it's
as you say, that would be bad for business. Does Costco try to prevent its customers from returning?
This issue has been my hobby horse since 2004, funny seeing it slowly trickle into wider cognizance.
says rents have doubled since 1990, but really in most places they've more than tripled.
What was $700 in 1990 is more like $2100 today.
Guess they're doing hedonic adjustments with that graph
Another means of silently lessening the inequality of [landed] property is to exempt all from taxation below a certain point, and to tax the higher portions or property in geometrical progression as they rise. --Thomas Jefferson
a lot of these are related to
e.g. railroads have been busy shipping shale oil to refineries.
China's not going to "melt down"
shows they have a 30% margin to print-up their currency, to do what Japan's been doing 2013-now
when everybody prints, nobody prints
We need to stop using this meaningless word and start using the word depression again.
red is recessions as measured by loss of full-time employment growth, height is depth of loss from the top
Note that by this measure the 2001 recession started in 2000
Hmm, the 1990 and 2001 recessions lasted a bit longer than the official record . . .
early 80s recession was caused by monetary policy:
blue is above UNRATE, red is real interest rates
What we need is to require liability insurance for gun ownership, with subsidies for those who can't afford it.
We could set up insurance exchanges in each state so people could bargain-hunt for the best insurance deal, too.
Offer 3 insurance levels -- "Bronze" for the accidental shooting at home, "Silver" for self-defense incidents, and "Gold" for when you really want to exercise your 2nd Amendment rights at schools, theaters, government offices, airports, etc.
What kind of person likes Trump only because they know how much it will upset and frighten educated people to have another idiot moron President ?
the half of the country that has an IQ below 100
people want in their politicians more than anything a shared belief system and worldview.
Trump is providing that to the nativist crowd, the "Know Nothings" of our time. They may only be 30% of the population, but they will always be with us.
Evangelicals thus far aren't Trump's biggest fans, but they pulled the lever for Romney, so they'll vote for anybody not (D) in the end who shares their social conservatism.
The excess reserves are simply the money added pooling in strong hands. Of course the 99% didn't get much benefit from the money-add. They're broke, living paycheck to paycheck on the whole.
shows if the Fed repeated the tightening it did during Clinton's first term we'd be at $10T in MZM, not $14T.
The money's out there, held by the investor class, pushing down yields.
CERTAINLY wasn't money injected into the economy
$2T in treasury buying, buying all the treasuries the Treasury Department could print, after the SSTF's purchases of course.
The money was injected into the economy, but cycled through quickly. Economics doesn't model monetary flows all that well, assuming everything is in equilibrium.
That's the problem, like you say it's an end-state monopoly game.
If Greece was able to maintain a negative balance of trade like the Untied States has been doing for decades, it would have been just fine.
NIIP at -$7T. $20,000 per capita. Yeah, we're actually Greece but just don't know it.
We could print that away but that'd be around 2X the recent Fed money dump 2009-2015.
And a weaker currency wouldn't do our trade deficit any favors, either. Importers would be able to buy more of our ag output for the same $, and things we import would just go up in price, since we can't manufacture much of anything here, in the consumer space at least.
They will literally make a roadblock, make you pullover and rob you
I have zero desire to go any further south than SLO.
Which reminds me, Paso Robles / San Simeon shares the same latitude as Tokyo, believe it or not.
Tokyo gets the Siberian airmass Dec - Mar and the June - Sept monsoon from Indochina, which makes its weather SUCK tho.
They DO own more cash because of QE.
yup, what QE facilitated was this:
Gov't spending stepped in 2009-2011 to provide the velocity missing once the bubble borrowers busted out.
The bonds the Fed now holds is just evidence of the monetary injection, not the injection itself.