The above graph is more what happens when you run a "welfare state" and enslave half the world to feed your idle capital population(s).
I hadn't made the connection, but The Hunger Games was some analogue of ancient Rome's system of exploitation.
As for Japan's baby boom, it was sharp and short, just 2-3 years in the late 40s. They actually legalized abortion to nip it in the bud for some reason (I suspect they wanted to limit the growing half-Japanese population during the American occupation). At any rate while our baby boom was going on into the 1950s, the Japanese were aborting 1 million pregnancies a year.
Is my favorite image of Japan's future demographic challenge. Doesn't look too bad. Compared to the youth-oriented 1970s and 80s, there will be a lot fewer young people, a lot more old people.
Banks say a safe mortgage is a maximum of 3 times the buyer's annual income with a 20% downpayment.
20% is in the past like balloon and assumable mortgages are now.
Now it's 5% and pay some more points to avoid PMI.
3X factor was based on the 8% mortgage rates. Now they're well under half that.
Landlords say a safe price is set by the rental market; annual rent should be at least 9% of the purchase
price, or else the price is just too high. Yet in affluent areas, both those safety rules are still being violated. Buyers are still borrowing 6 times
their income with tiny downpayments, and gross rents are still only 3% of purchase price.
Two things; 10 year rates have collapsed:
So what was 9% gold-standard cap rate is now a 2% cap rate.
Plus CPI is still the landlord's best friend:
Rents never, ever go down, not since 1930 at least. You want to own your customers by the balls, buy RE.
Great post bob, sad but not surprising you got a dislike for it.
The main economic thesis in my life is of course 'all taxes come out of rents'. I'd like to think the high-tax high-service eurosocialist paradises (Netherlands, Denmark, Norway, Sweden) give people more gov't services at less actual hit to their discretionary incomes, but as you say reality has a way of trumping theory so absent any good studies on this the best way to see if this is true would be to live in the countries for a good while.
I lived in Japan for 8 years and that gave me for a taste of the advantages and disadvantages we face here in the US.
For one, it is true if one lives in some Podunk town in a red state the cost of living can be quite low compared to e.g. Japan.
Good luck finding a job, schools, medical care, public transportation or anything outside of a Walmart and fast food, but it would be cheap.
I'm retiring next decade and am going to scout where to base myself for the last decades of my life.
I'd like to stay in the US, either in ~10,000sqft culdesac lot in a quiet corner of a decent city or up in the foothills somewhere (lakefront in Bellingham is still The Goal I guess), but ISTM every time we-the-people put conservatives in control here they just turn the screws on everyone and fuck things up.
Total debt to GDP ratio:
Conservatives are on record of wanting to eliminate PPACA and turn medicare into a voucher system. If & when they do that I'll be outta here in short order.
Economically we're not yet on an even keel here, the Miseans and the conservatives in general still want to make the ship list more, we're going to need more redistribution and government intervention in the economy, not less.
Too much of this country is still economically screwed, and we just can't keep using our DOD as a jobs program. Real DOD spending per worker:
Conservatives imagine the eurosocialists benefit from a low defense burden, but remove DOD spending from our economy and we'd crater instantly since so much of our economy is directly or indirectly dependent on this gravy train.
It'd be nice if we could replace this spending with more socially useful spending, but that's socialism and half this country has been indoctrinated to fear it.
Housing is the key sector not really touched on by the Mises dude making that dodgy post. Generally the better a place is to live, the higher the housing costs are, and this holds for Sweden as well as Tennessee.
Germany is an outlier here, they have less home ownership but a cheaper housing market for some reason.
But if you don't own your own home in the USA, you're fucked too.
2. The coming deflationary depression which will drive down prices of all residential real estate.
I had half a foot in this camp 10 years ago but I'm out now.
I thought we might follow Japan, being so over-indebted, but as you know our BK rules are very debtor-friendly.
Plus their population is falling and median incomes are flat. Ours keep going up somehow.
And our Fed was willing and able to take their balance sheet from $800B to over $3.5T.
Corporate profits rebounded very nicely since 2010 and looking at the latest Z.1 I see total household assets are up $20T (40%) since 2010 and consumer debt is up 5%.
Total mortgage debt is still at 2011 levels. Consumer credit is up 8% but student loan debt has gone from $850B to $1.35T since 2010.
I just don't see what cylinder is going to throw a rod this time, except if the GOP retains control of Congress but Hillary wins -- in this hell-future we could have GOP shitfits that make 2011 look like the Tip & Ronnie show.