comments by Bellingham Bill

Bellingham Bill   befriend (0)   ignore (3)   Sat, 11 Jun 2016, 7:45pm PDT   Like   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 1

^ something's bugging me about that chart . . . here, let me fix it:

here we see the national debt was exploding well before 2009 and so Obama ain't even responsible for much of it, given his first budget kicked in late 2009.

this is largely thanks to the Fed buying so much debt to get us through the rough patch when the housing market was flat and households were deleveraging:

Trump's a real expert on BK but I'm not that's the right kind of experience we need running the country.

2000-2008 in that last graph is how the GOP operates -- pump & dump.

Bellingham Bill   befriend (0)   ignore (3)   Mon, 2 May 2016, 7:33pm PDT   Like   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 2

justme says

ZIRP is doing it! It is not the "savings" of the wealthy that is doing it. It is what amounts to "printing" of bank reserves.

The money the Fed printed ended up in the 1%'s hands soon enough. The Fed bought the trillions of bonds, and government ran colossal deficits courtesy of the Fed being the extra buyer, and all these trillions were spent into the private economy and eventually hoovered up by the "savers" aka rich, people who have the generational money of interest earning interest earning interest for them.

Interest never sleeps.

The Feds borrowed $2T/yr during the crash! Inconceivable!

Bellingham Bill   befriend (0)   ignore (3)   Mon, 2 May 2016, 7:29pm PDT   Like   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 3

tatupu70 says

but anyone who thinks we have 3 simultaneous massive bubbles

I don't see much of a bubble in stocks, unless you think corporate profits are going to zero again.

Rents support housing costs, so no bubble there.

Not even sure what a bubble looks like in the bond market . . .

Prices high so yields low? Well, welcome to teh deflation, courtesy of the Fed injecting trillions into the top of the economy to fend away cross-default collapse.

Bellingham Bill   befriend (0)   ignore (3)   Mon, 2 May 2016, 7:25pm PDT   Like   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 4

tatupu70 says

I don't belong to the Fed cult so we will disagree on this one too. The Fed controls exactly 1 rate which is almost never used.

What the Fed also did was stick-save asset prices and corporate profits 5-6 years ago.

Without that we'd be in 1936 now and asset value would be 10% of what they are now, everyone would be BK'd and overall the rich would own less in some areas (their debt and corporate equities) and more in others (real estate and other hard assets).

Bellingham Bill   befriend (0)   ignore (3)   Mon, 2 May 2016, 7:21pm PDT   Like   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 5

justme says

QE does not primarily buy 10 year treasuries. It buys some, but mostly it buys crummy bonds that others will not buy.

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TREASTtatupu70 says

justme says

Documentation? Savings deposit balances as function of total wealth?

Savings is more than savings account balances.

Here's some "documentation"

Top 10% own 94% of the financial securities.

Bottom 90% owe 72.5% of the debt.

Bellingham Bill   befriend (0)   ignore (3)   Mon, 2 May 2016, 7:18pm PDT   Like   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 6

justme says

QE does not primarily buy 10 year treasuries. It buys some, but mostly it buys crummy bonds that others will not buy.

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TREAST

Bellingham Bill   befriend (0)   ignore (3)   Mon, 2 May 2016, 6:08am PDT   Like   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 7

justme says

there is no way the theory of the "savings glut" can be true. What we do have is a debt glut.

one man's savings can be another man's debt.

real per-capita consumer debt

Bellingham Bill   befriend (0)   ignore (3)   Sun, 1 May 2016, 9:42pm PDT   Like   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 8

yeah I recently read that rent-seeking article and was pleasantly surprised that it defined rents as getting something for nothing, not the rent of "economic rent".

Bellingham Bill   befriend (0)   ignore (3)   Sun, 1 May 2016, 9:42pm PDT   Like (1)   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 9

"Locke says that it is when you mix your labor with the land that it becomes yours."

Last I checked Locke was irrelevant today. Well, except for the:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lockean_proviso

Bellingham Bill   befriend (0)   ignore (3)   Sun, 1 May 2016, 9:32pm PDT   Like (2)   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 10

saving is deferred consumption.

but if something is not consumed now, it is not created, and there is no need for the workers involved.

you can't buy a candy bar and save it for 20 years to enjoy in your retirement.

what savings really is buying a spot at the casino table we call the equities market -- or otherwise acquiring a piece of something that will produce income in the future.

thing is, we've got too much of this investment action, we're drowning in people trying to save money.

saving, is, in fact, stupid, on the macro level.

we'd all be much better off in a full-on keynesian/MMT economy where there wasn't recession-level slack in the system

where are the bounds of wealth creation now? Where are we running out of stuff?

Metals, maybe. Energy, not really. Rare earths, dunno.

At any rate, in a more virtualized, appified economy, we're going to need less stuff-stuff to satisfy our needs and wants.

Zuckerberg was pitching this not too long ago:

http://www.wired.com/2016/02/vr-moral-imperative-or-opiate-of-masses/

Of course housing is one thing we're not creating enough new wealth in. Those that own have a vested interest in keeping new supply out of their local market -- NIMBYism and last-one-in-itis.

We could stand to invest more in our transportation systems, as transportation is another way to multiply land wealth, allowing people to live further from major work and retail centers.

What this country needs is tons of investment in new capital wealth. Schools, hospitals, housing, streets, parking garages, computer-controlled traffic lights.

We'll get there, but slowly, since most people are too bamboozled now to be able to see they have the power to demand any new public -- government -- investment in the commons.

Bellingham Bill   befriend (0)   ignore (3)   Sun, 1 May 2016, 9:17pm PDT   Like   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 11

I parachuted into the Bay Area in mid-2000, at the peak of the madness and just before the bottom fell out of the dotcom mania.

Bellingham Bill   befriend (0)   ignore (3)   Sun, 1 May 2016, 7:40am PDT   Like (1)   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 12

Never mind that Social Security and Medicare have an unfunded liability in excess of $100 trillion

people think that like with military spending we're going to throw this $100T into a furnace and never see it again.

Medicare spending by the baby boomers is going to be an immense jobs program here. It's going to be the main engine pulling our economic train.

Boomers are age 52-70 this year.

Bellingham Bill   befriend (0)   ignore (3)   Sun, 1 May 2016, 7:34am PDT   Like   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 13

KgK one says

If you tax corporate, aren't you taxing same money twice once at corporate and then from person who gets dividends?

yes, this is how taxes work. My after-tax income becomes somebody else's after-tax income.

I'd be OK with eliminating corporate income taxes actually

blue is corporate pre-tax income, red is their tax paid.

Corporations own more than $4T worth of land, so if slapped a 10% tax on their land ownership and got rid of the corporate income tax we'd be revenue neutral . . .

Bellingham Bill   befriend (0)   ignore (3)   Sun, 1 May 2016, 7:25am PDT   Like (1)   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 14

jazz music says

Our tax money created silicon valley through NASA programs with the requirements to launch intelligent probes to other planets and send data back.

No, NASA was the addendum on our ICBM program.

Bellingham Bill   befriend (0)   ignore (3)   Sat, 30 Apr 2016, 7:45pm PDT   Like   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 15

Funny thing with all the printing the Bank of Japan has been doing, I just noticed the yen has strengthened 10%:

Kurdoda's going to need a bigger printing press.

Bellingham Bill   befriend (0)   ignore (3)   Sat, 30 Apr 2016, 6:34pm PDT   Like   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 16

> then with the Japanese ambassadors begging for peace being turned away by FDR,

The Japanese sent their second negotiator to the US in mid-November, about when the Japanese First Air Fleet began staging to Hokkaido in preparation for their late November sortie to Pearl Harbor.

The Japanese did not want "peace" in 1941 -- after all, Kurusu had been sent to DC by the new Prime Minister, Army General Tojo -- they wanted to continue their war in China, forcing CKS's surrender and the total subjugation of China as a client state in the Japanese New Economic Order, their East Asian Co-Prosperity Sphere.

With Hitler's tanks having overrun all of Europe and looking to be in Red Square before winter, French Indochina and the Dutch East Indies were glittering prizes free for the taking -- but for the American interference in Japan's affairs here.

Bellingham Bill   befriend (0)   ignore (3)   Mon, 25 Apr 2016, 8:40pm PDT   Like   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 17

Bellingham Bill   befriend (0)   ignore (3)   Mon, 25 Apr 2016, 7:47pm PDT   Like   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 18

fun trivia: it won't be until 4/17 of next year until the span of time since Dec 31, 1999 matches the time between the single's release and that date.

Prince's 80s singles are part of the sound-track of my high school days, but not the biggest fan.

I started watching his SNL appearances collection but it was pretty dreck.

He had a good run at life, props to that.

Bellingham Bill   befriend (0)   ignore (3)   Sun, 24 Apr 2016, 12:19pm PDT   Like   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 19

Bellingham Bill   befriend (0)   ignore (3)   Sun, 24 Apr 2016, 12:16pm PDT   Like   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 20

Strategist says

Why would profit seeking companies want to pay someone for doing nothing

Companies aren't profit-seeking, they don't have actual brains or motivations

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Control_fraud

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