So a lot depends on how tech companies do. If the tech bubble really pops (not the actual usage of products, the stock prices for tech companies) then we could see some big price declines in Palo Alto. So the question for SFO down to San Jose is whether that particular stock bubble will pop.
I don't see why the pop couldn't already have started. The VIX is making mad moves.
From the comments: "The author is making the point that the largest property bubble in all recorded history is from SFO down to San Jose and around the Bay. It is total insanity and was based upon the tech bubble of the past forty years. H-P led us into it and they are now leading us out of it. There is no f***ing way a laid-off H-P employee who gets a new job at the Depot can afford $10K-$13K /mo payments with about $2k in property taxes thrown in. You lose your job, you lose your house, your wife, and probably your life. It is time to put one to the temple. To owe $2.5 mil on a house that deflates down to $650,000 or less, would leave few choices...all bad. Mail the keys in and try to get away before the repo man grabs the Tesla and Lexus.
Greed is so powerful, it completely removes all common sense with people fully believing the bubble can expand indefinitely. That s*** house at $5 mil, then $10 mil; all perfectly normal, nothing to worry about. After the bubble burst the lemmings look for someone to blame and the banks demand bailouts. Rinse-repeat. The bursting will send a tsunami across the whole U.S."
I remember in 2007, many people were expecting the crisis to be caused by China stopping its reserves accumulation, or selling some, and pushing up US rates or causing some kind of currency crisis.
In fact the crisis happened, but the break point was completely different. These things are hard to predict.
Still this is an argument I had several time with Iwog: rates were pushed down by a saving glut. Now as we move forward, many of the savings will turn in dissavings: China's reserves is one likely source, and so is boomers retirement savings. Not sure if this will be enough to change substantially the rates, but at least it will push in that direction.
China is a side-show, albeit important. The reason the market is crashing is that the Fed is cornered, afraid it may lose what's left of its credibility (amidst end-the-fed protests) it feels the pressure to follow through with the rate hike and people are selling in anticipation of rising rates. If they delay again they may risk a falling market despite continuation of ZIRP which may be far worse and spiral things out of control.
SF is not the Boston of the west coast. That was a misnomer, spread during my early childhood.
SF, never had a sense of community and was always this cesspool of bums, transients, and wannabes. With that stated, if/when SF goes into an economic depression, it'll be just another Philadelphia.
You cannot compare east vs west coast. SF never was and will never be as tidy, but it is a charming city with the right mix of people and can even incorporate hippies and bums (which gravitate to SF because of the climate, so Boston has an advantage here). I disagree on the depression part, 2008-2010 were actually fairly enjoyable years again before the tech and housing bubble was reinflated. The money from Silicon Valley concentrates in few neighborhoods (and sectors such as housing) and is less important than many would think. I'll take that bet against Philadelphia, but it has to go into the next recession first.
Agreed, the bay area and SF has a lot to offer, but housing is not it. There are still few remote neighborhoods by the ocean (outer sunset/outer richmond) or the presidio (Marina maybe to a certain extent) where it's nice, quiet and relatively clean (for SF), the rest of the neighborhoods are just plain shit. It's nice to work in a high rise with great views and party, but living anywhere near downtown is just pure shit. Human and dog feces, insane amounts of traffic and dirt everywhere. The place to live in SF was many years ago when it wasn't suffocating from too many idiots, when a studio in south beach went for $1500 rent and the neighborhoods were up and coming. People who bought in SF will have a a rude awakening once the Chinese money dries up and the new tech hipsters see their companies go bankrupt (hello twitter!) and rediscover rural living after pissing away 500K+ for a 200 sqft shitbox next to the homeless. It won't be pretty, but then SF will regain some of it's charme as it is an undeniably beautiful city which just has been taken for a ride by years of corrupt government and the housing mafia.
The bay area will follow, I think we are already entering the correction with a nice blow off top, I think we will see a considerable slowdown August into winter. If the Fed stalls yet once again on their measly quarter point hike it may get a temporary breather, but it's coming.
Agree that stops are not very useful, but the complaint is justified. There's so much front-running and false bid/ask flashing going on and even larger brokerages have trouble filling retail orders during bear raids or flash crashes. A mandatory 2 or 3 second rule for every bid/ask would work wonders here. Algos would still be useful and retail would have the chance to react appropriately. Swing-trading is fine but skimming money off via front-running and fake bids/asks is fraud.
Next regarding the consequences at the population level, I doubt whether "the urge to do it your own way and resist conformity" correlates with average testosterone levels. To the contrary, Enlightenment thinking and rejection of established religion seem much better predictors than testosterone. For example, if you look at the Muslim countries, they seem on average to have a huge excess of "male, testosterone-laden aggressiveness" and yet they despise (and kill) anybody who resists conformity to their doctrine. Ditto the Soviet Union and North Korea and other communist countries, and of course the actual Nazis. In all of those examples, the dictators and politburos and mullahs are 100% sausage fests, "no girlz allowd". I tend to think that power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely, and whoever has power may feel tempted to impose some degree of conformity (aka "law and order").
I agree that power corrupts, also that more testosterone likely means more extremes, but not more voluntary conformity. The examples you mention are either older regimes or those stuck in the past where women didn't have much to say in politics anywhere. Some brutal indoctrinating regimes have emerged under those men, but there always has been a lot of resistance as well and with a little luck some of those regimes would not have survived as long as they did. Also since East asians have the least amount of T, one could make the case that that is the reason why there is not a lot of resistance in NK whereas in the middle east there is a lot of rivalry (or Africa where T levels are the highest and hence it's full of anarchy). I think a female dominated society has a more sophisticated way of achieving real conformity, as opposed to a brutal male-dominated reign with lots of violent clashes. Conformity is achieved via social circles and government oppression when necessary, but character assassination and destruction of career and social life comes way before any violence which is then often not needed anymore ;)curious2 says
So, if you are correct about declining testosterone causing some measures towards social conformity, I think it would be in the sense of more small measures instead of the big extremes that exist elsewhere, e.g. the Aloha snackbars chopping off each other's heads. You might notice more scratches on the paint, but they are not nearly as bad as the "holy" decapitations that male-dominated theocracies use to impose conformity elsewhere.
Yeah, makes sense. The small measures though creep in and in the end you are like the frog that is boiled without noticing it (which happens to be a myth, but it's a good metaphor). I would also say that a regime that achieves domination/oppression via many subtle measures/changes will likely prosper much longer than their extreme counterparts.
“There is not enough evidence to recommend that patients inhale or ingest Cannabis as a treatment for cancer-related symptoms or side effects of cancer therapy.”
“No clinical trials of Cannabis as a treatment for cancer in humans have been found in the CAM on PubMed database maintained by the National Institutes of Health.”
Thousands of different kind of cancers, and pro marijuana lobby will point to a few rats and test tube studies.
Rah, human lab rats, toke on! Keep those pushers rich!
The reason there are no studies in the big databases is that it cannot be patented and make big pharma enough money. The few alternate studies that have been done had pretty clear results. Cannabis will be an integral part of many therapies 20 years from now and the politicians and big pharma lobbyists keeping it illegal for such a long time (and out of reach for people with chronic pain such as many vets) despite better knowledge should be held responsible and jailed. Obummer is one of them.
Fox and the GOP have lost control of the Zombie Orc army they lobotomized and indoctrinated.
They have broken out of the lab.
God help us.
It's more the lamestream (social) media masses who have been lobotomized by the consequent enforcement of Orwellian newspeak and think it's ok to have their choice of words dictated by some jackass idiot activist 'journalist' or social justice warrior.
But then again so could all of the racebaiters in the Liberal media. But it's nice to see a Call it crazy, Captain Shuddup and Fortwayne firing back at these sicko race baiters with IMPUNITY from damaging media smearing. It's like all of the meida shitballs the Liberal media machine is throwing at Donald has an Oxy-Clean coating.
I think the US is in a recession now because of the end of QE. I have to wonder if China's real GDP is even at 5% growth.
Mostly it is about re balancing and deflationary pressure from all the bad credit. Should be in better shape half way into next year in the US.
Agreed. Amazing that you got 2 dislikes for something that obvious. We don't know where we stand wrt the organic recovery part because QE/ZIRP has inflated the biggest asset markets to the hilt. Also so far people have gotten used to expecting the Fed to roll out new programs and reinstate ZIRP forever on any market softness, but the Fed has been mum and chances are as good that they will do their first measly quarter point hike as planned as that they won't. That doesn't sit well with the players. Add on international volatility/recession and this is going to be interesting. I doubt that there will be a gigantic crash, but in many ways a constantly net retreating market with intermittent upswings of hope and change is much more heinous..
Perhaps something for everybody battling on this topic: I would recommend the works of Rollo Tomassi ('The rational male' blog and book) who is somewhat less 'exotic' and less 'extreme' than most of TRP, MGTOW and PUA movements, highly scientific with razor-sharp focus on the issues and phenomenons of modern feminism and open hypergamy at hand. He dismantles and dissects 2nd and 3rd wave feminism and modern open hypergamy (and all the bs that comes with it) almost surgically, without anger or hyperbole and can be a good guide for men to self-awake, self-improve and become more alpha-assertive and dominant (what women naturally desire) and more successful in many aspects of life. Check out his blog and keep spinning those plates:
Can mean a lot of things (esp. if you include slang), transvestite, transsexual, transmission, vehicle/van. I think it's a combo of all, a tech stock-vehicle of flamboyant nature that is in fashion with all the right media pundits and rides the euphorical wave of tech-asset inflation ;) So, the (more popular) tech version of the Dow trannies, probably not coined, but taken over by ZH. I consider a lot of new tech stocks in this category, mostly those who have no or hardly any net profit but trade at 80 x valuations. TSLA for sure, FB actually has had some decent profits, but is also way overhyped, then you have nflx amzn and the likes. A lot of those are pumped by Cramer on mad money.
The market is looking horrid as asset-inflation is popping and retail is left holding the bag. However I also don't consider bonds safe going forward, they are just safer than stocks right now while stocks had the upper hand for a while during the inflation of this bubble. It also ups the chance that the Fed may delay raising the interest rate once again as they are cornered and the market is selling in anticipation of a measly quarter point hike. That's what ZIRP and QE brings you, a full-blown asset bubble with ridiculous valuations esp. for the tech trannies. Usually when cramer pumps the last bit out of them to sucker in the last retailer, then the market will begin to keel over. Housing is not safe here either, esp. if bonds falter.