Why did they fall so much when this is probably the only sector of the economy that is guarantied a lot of business and good prices independently of whatever happens in China/emerging markets?
I assume partially because of what happened in 2008. The bubble was in full burst mode while major talking-heads still pushed housing. Another reason could be margin pressure as affordability is coming to an end, so they have to build and sell relatively "cheaply" on pricey land.
Not if this is a precursor to more inventory. Sure, hot markets like the bay area are still tight, but rents are easing already in other parts. SRS is near a 52wk high, though still very depressed from its continued beating since the Fed started inflating post 2008. Housing shorts have been utterly and constantly destroyed and decimated since 2009, many fighting the Fed bazooka probably ended up in the poor-house. They are raging and trying to roar back now that we're still effectively sitting at ZIRP and the end of the QE tunnel and foreign housing money has likely been reached - I'm not so sure about the end of QE, never underestimate the Fed, maybe operation titty-twist is imminent! It's gonna be a good tug-of-war.
Your Bear Sterns is a oil company that's kind of the point. The velocity of a oil company compared to a debt leverage financial sector is very little
Yeah, not trying to come across as ultra-bearish by any means and I still think a big crash is unlikely, but the p/e s are simply still overvalued for many sectors and stocks, so there's more downside.
Recessionary Data Trends are the easiest to spot out of all data lines because you're working from cycle highs, when it happens no one can hide from it
There is one simple data point that has been around forever since stocks started zooming again, esp. tech stocks. With the exception of true bellwethers like GOOG, AAPL, MSFT, IBM etc. many tech stocks simply don't have any net profits. While this is expected for start-ups and maybe early IPO stage a lot of them simply have been bid up post-IPO without ever turning a profit. Granted, some reinvest a lot of proceeds into expansion, but even that is a dangerous game as soon as demand contracts. It's no surprise that LNKD tanked 40% in one day, the surprise is that it took that long. Same for TSLA and NFLX is barely profitable, trading at a p/e of 300+, yeah that will end well. It's the same bs over and over again, but that seems to be simply part of the bull and bear cycles, that we overshoot, probably with the help of pump monkeys like CNBC and Cramer. How's that CHK looking now, Cramer? Maybe time for another epic Bear-Stearns call.
I ask myself: what is your strong conviction it's going to do? Down! And I do the opposite. I bought lots of stocks recently.
I'm strongly bullish.
Recession - late 2018
I don't think this is i the strong conviction of most. Most actually expect YABT, yet another bear trap. I see it going down or trading sideways in a seesaw pattern. Dead money at best. Too many risk factors out there right now to derail any meaningful rally, but GL anyways.
If Trump wins, yes. If any of the Cuckservatives wins, it is questionable. Paul would also have pushed for a repeal but he is not going to win. If the Dems win it won't be repealed for sure. The problem with such monstrous legislature is that once it is enacted it is very hard and costly to dismantle.
They have more demographic issues and the U.S. Banks don't have the leverage risk anymore as the S.E.C. capital reserve ratio of 40-1 was legally banned
Our Banks are fine here in America
We will see. Commodity-related debt can hurt quite some if the world-wide economy continues to slow and oil doesn't recover. Plus add in a new credit crisis / defaults and it could get ugly. They are probably not threatened by default at this point, but it's hard to argue why one should invest in banks now. This could be in part a consequence of the Feds ZIRP policy, this time inducing commodity over-investment. The spectre of deflation is already everybody's worry and the promised rate hikes are not going to be bullish for commodities.
So far the predicted trend is fully intact, the market is not having any of the "good news". Add the worries about Europe and esp. DB to it and you get this crap market. But hey, it's a European bank, we all know American banks are much better capitalized ;)Time to roll back the rate hike and re-open the unlimited fiat distress discount window (was it ever closed?). All your fiat are belong to us!
Obama sucks. Because of Obamacare, Frank-Dodd, Common Core, did not ease up on war.
The real problem is the legacy this asshole leaves.
But undeniably the economy is improving: DESPITE Obama
A little hyperbole, but generally agreeable. Meanwhile the wheels are coming off Obamacare and more and more people are reporting such dramatic deductible increases that they are far worse off than before. The market is not having it either.
We're not part of the sports team herd and mentality.
Anyone who votes to put Republicans in government deserves Republicans in government. I can't make it more clear than that.
Pick your poison, I'd say with the current state of the Democrats the Republicans are the lesser of two evils (wasn't always that way). Of course now with the rise of the Cuckservatives we may be trending towards equally bad now. But that's where Trump comes into the equation..
Who talks about equality all the time, and complains that wealthy have more? Democrats.
Who has all the feminists screaming that outcomes are not equal and equal salaries are required? Democrats.
These are big points, esp. the 2nd one. We all know that administrations (and governments in general) are corrupt on both sides, always have been to some extent and will be (seems it has gotten worse but who knows), but the 2nd point is basically about codifying corruption and abolishing the meritocracy. Much worse than positive, i.e. crony corruption which is already bad enough by itself.