I'd sell for this reason. Otherwise, I would consider hanging onto it for the following reasons:
Option 1: Sell at $220k and net about $90k profit. Tax liability is about $30k after factored in 15% long-term capital gains, 10% state tax and 25% depreciation recapture. You walk away with about $80k.
Option 2: Do a cash-out refinance at 75% LTV. You walk away with about $67k after fees and closing costs. Your cash-flow is close to neutral, but someone is buying you a house.
The delta is $13k between the two options. If you don't see yourself as a long distance landlord and given the fact that the house is in a questionable neighborhood, I'm a seller. Also, the market is approaching the top and your rental is in a tertiary market, which tends to take the biggest hit during a recession.
Why still the bitterness even after you have moved? Like everything in life, you take the good with the bad. It's great if you have more good than bad. Not everyone can just pick up their bag and move. We have families, friends and community. Not every community in CA is bad. Not everywhere in CA is as foggy as Monterey where you used to reside. This doesn't make them stupid for not wanting to move out of CA.
People live where they live for a reason. The fact that you could just pick up your bag and moved across the country shows you value something else more than families and friends. Everyone's priority is different. Get out there do so something positive for the country instead of being bitter about CA.
I don't know if it's life at the moment of conception, but to say that there's no life before birth? Really? A 4- to 9-month old baby is the mom's womb is not life? WTF is the matter with you people? Have you talked to women who had an abortion? How many of them are being haunted or traumatized for life?
Everything in life has a price. You will pay for your action one way or another day. As a Budhist, I truly believe in karma.
Happy Thanksgiving to you and your family. Just calm down. It's unfortunate for sure. However, we have no one to blame but ourselves. Our lives are a direct result of our choices. If we don't like our lives, it's time we make better choices. Like a river, we cannot touch the same water twice. It's because the flow that has passed will never pass again. So enjoy and cherish every moment of your lives with your loved ones.
Like you, I found this site in late 2009. There's so much emotion involved when we discussed about housing. However, it's our job to screen out the noise and separate the smart ones from the dumb ones. Some people are still bitter about it until this day for different reason. That's not a good way to go through life IMO.
I found a real estate investment partner on Patnet, who has now retired in Natal, Brazil since February 2014 at the age of 40. Thanks to some good housing investments that we made between 2011 to 2013 which has enabled him and his wife to enjoy life now. He goes by the "pkennedy" handle. Let me see if I can ring him up @pkennedy. I have since moved on because the sentiment on this site is quite negative. However, Patnet will always hold a special place in my heart. This is where I met one of my investment partners and have made some friends.
While people are still yelling and screaming that housing is getting expensive, this has been my best year in terms of investment. My new partner and I picked up a total of 28 units in downtown San Jose for $4.615MM. That's about 165k/unit. Gross rents is about 451k/year while fair market rent is north of $580k. This is a direct result of "If I want something in my life that I've never had, I'll have to do something that I've never done." We all will have to do what we have to do UNTIL we can do what we want to do. What I want is to be able to spend my life in my own way.
It's sad that you and some others have realized Patrick's flawed advice too late. SF ace pointed this out many times in the past. It's unfortunate that the market has left you and them in the dust and now have to face the reality of being renters for life if you're sticking around here. Patrick's owner could uprooted him at anytime, that's when he would face the reality of cut throat rent on the Peninsula.
With that said, take it easy. Find peace within yourself. Happy Thanksgiving to all!
They did. They waited patiently and watched the housing market went by. This was an opportunity once in a lifetime for an average Joe to get ahead in life. The average Joe was able to buy properties with 25% down, and some even house hacked with an FHA loan at 3.5% down. Now they own income producing assets for their entire life while jacking it the rents year in and year out. Thanks to Mr. and Mrs. tenants for buying your landlord a building.
The housing market for average Joe undoubted blow the returns in the stock market out of the water in the last 6 years.
they raise taxes, cut pensions, wages, cut imports, increase exports, cut the bureaucracy, etc...
This is the wrong thinking. The more taxes they raise, the more they spend. How responsible do you think government bodies with spending other people's money when they know they can raise taxes if the need more?
People love to vote for raising taxes when they're not the ones paying it. They just don't realize that the rich are well connected and get around paying taxes with loopholes. The middle class and the poor will eventually ending up paying the most in taxes. Talking about voting against your best interest.
This is why I say screw W-2 job. Owners will pay just enough so their employees don't quit while employees will work just hard enough not to get fired. When you work for others, you build their dreams. Why not work for yourself and build your own dreams.
Stop taking the abuse from the owner and orders from your union? Take control of your own destiny for god sake crying outloud. Go in your office on Monday, give your boss a middle finger and get the hell out the there. If you keep working for others and keep letting them squeeze you, you have no one to blame but yourself.
When iwog hired a newly graduated attorney to work for his firm during the recent downturn, he paid her $40k/year while he knew the fair market salary was $50k. This goes back to my first point above. There's a price to be paid working for others. There is no frickin guarantee when you will get canned or they will chop off your benefits and salary.
The only two things that are guaranteed in life are death and taxes. You only have one life to live. Make the most of it by building your own dreams and memories instead of others. If not, put your head back in the sand and keep on getting abused. Don't come on here or anywhere else to whine and bitch.
If history is any indication, the Bay Area will likely go into a recession in the 2nd half of 2017 or 2018. The bottom of the next real estate market will be around 2020-2022. However, the correction will not be very steep. 20%-25% maximum is my guess. This has been my guess for a couple of years now. Right or wrong, this is only one man's opinion.
Don't listen to music. Don't watch TV much. Spend about $50/year on 4-5 finance and real estate books. Used books are quite cheap. I don't think I have spent anywhere near $1,500 on books. Some books can be downloaded for free.
Listen to finance and real estate podcasts when driving. They're also free. These subjects can also layer to life, on top of things, like thinking of ways to increase and protect financial wealth not only for this generation, but hopefully also for future generations. All in all, we spend about the same amount of money. We just have different interest. There is truly no right or wrong answer. Whatever floats your boat. :-)
Hope all is well. It seems like software engineers currently rule the Silicon Valley. I have been out of the work force for almost 6 years now so I'm clueless on what's really going on out there. Instead of going to work every morning, I spend my morning sitting at home and thinking of ways to generate more wealth for myself and future generations.
Your comment about the road less traveled reminds me of this saying "Entrepreneurship is living a few years of your life like most people won't so you can spend the rest of your life like most people can't." Most people take the safe road by going to school, trying to get a good job after graduated and ending up working for others and making their bosses' dreams become a reality. Thus, I don't consider going into a minority field to be a road less traveled. Just my opinion of course.
If history is any indication, this market will top out around 230. It's hard to believe the housing market can go up another 25%- 30% from here, but history repeats itself.
Saved for posterity.
I was looking at the Case Shiller HPI this morning, which currently stands at 214, and I remember of your post. In just over 1 year, the HPI goes from 181 to 214. What's the likelihood of it hitting 230 do you think?