If history is any indication, the Bay Area will likely go into a recession in the 2nd half of 2017 or 2018. The bottom of the next real estate market will be around 2020-2022. However, the correction will not be very steep. 20%-25% maximum is my guess. This has been my guess for a couple of years now. Right or wrong, this is only one man's opinion.
Don't listen to music. Don't watch TV much. Spend about $50/year on 4-5 finance and real estate books. Used books are quite cheap. I don't think I have spent anywhere near $1,500 on books. Some books can be downloaded for free.
Listen to finance and real estate podcasts when driving. They're also free. These subjects can also layer to life, on top of things, like thinking of ways to increase and protect financial wealth not only for this generation, but hopefully also for future generations. All in all, we spend about the same amount of money. We just have different interest. There is truly no right or wrong answer. Whatever floats your boat. :-)
Hope all is well. It seems like software engineers currently rule the Silicon Valley. I have been out of the work force for almost 6 years now so I'm clueless on what's really going on out there. Instead of going to work every morning, I spend my morning sitting at home and thinking of ways to generate more wealth for myself and future generations.
Your comment about the road less traveled reminds me of this saying "Entrepreneurship is living a few years of your life like most people won't so you can spend the rest of your life like most people can't." Most people take the safe road by going to school, trying to get a good job after graduated and ending up working for others and making their bosses' dreams become a reality. Thus, I don't consider going into a minority field to be a road less traveled. Just my opinion of course.
If history is any indication, this market will top out around 230. It's hard to believe the housing market can go up another 25%- 30% from here, but history repeats itself.
Saved for posterity.
I was looking at the Case Shiller HPI this morning, which currently stands at 214, and I remember of your post. In just over 1 year, the HPI goes from 181 to 214. What's the likelihood of it hitting 230 do you think?
A picture is worth a thousand words.
VCs have been air dropping $7-8billion a year into the Bay Area. SoCal has been getting injections of a couple of billion dollars a year. Party like its 1999.
The biggest difference is that a lot of current start-up companies are making money compared to 1999 where a lot of companies were burning money. Although we're not at the peak yet IMHO, things are getting a little frothy out there. Just be careful.
Wow good for him. Though, I'm not sure I would post his pictures out there publicly.
I don't think they care. They're in Brazil. He knows Patrick personally. He can ask Patrick to take the photos down if he doesn't like them.
Just to prove a point that taking risk at an appropriate time can yield huge returns. The same effort can be used to think of ways to make more money instead of save money. It works for us. Others should try sometimes.
He also got lucky that the Real lost a lot of value. When he moved there, the exchange rate was 1 dollar = 2.15 real. Now, it's over 3 real for a dollar. He's been living large. Lucky guy and gal.
Patrick.net will always have a special place in my heart. This is where I met a complete stranger, who shared a lot of common interests. We invested in real estate together during the downturn. Thanks to those investments, he could afford to retire in Natal, Brazil with his Brazilian wife since February 2014 at the age of 41. Here are some pics for those who have met pkennedy in person.
With these kinds of salary compensations coupled with our geography and NIMBYism mentally, and we're wondering why real estate along the Peninsula is expensive?
liberal politicians who he criticizes for placating discontented middle and lower class voters with affordable housing which led to numerous painful distortions
It's probably all true. No politician is going to win election promising to lower home valuations.
The idea is ludicrous on its face.
This is a classic case of the unintended consequences. As master oogway said "One often meets his destiny on the road he takes to avoid it."
Not sure why people keep on whining and bitching about real estate in the Bay Area while it has proven time and time again that waiting on the sideline can be costly. Why do you think the housing bear website now becomes a Bay Area hi-tech site?
But when you tell someone without kids that they're self-centered, you blow right through the border crossing into DoucheLand.
It's normal; these folks have elevated Oxytocin (as oppose to Oxycontin), levels which gives 'em a sense of bonding and belonging. The fact that other ppl don't need that, since we're able to function independently, is surprising.
The self-centered comment was regarding to the post about your dad and maybe your sister. HydroCabron took things out of context like some other posters on this site. I People judge you by what you say since most of us are strangers on Patnet.
As you can see, I didn't accuse you of lying about your avatar. You always have to give people the benefit of the doubts. As you explained above, both your dad and your sister have ignored your advice for the last three decades. Thus, it got to the point where you don't give a damn about them anymore, which is understandable.
Now going back to being a dad, I didn't know what I didn't know until I became a dad. That's how special it feels. Like you, I'm fortunate enough to be in a position where I control my own time. I get to spend as much time with my daughter as I want to. You get to go bang hoes at your own discretion. Isn't that what financial freedom is all about? You can tell anyone, like your boss or supervisor, who wants you to do something to go eff themselves. :0)
Boo yeah. Welcome to the world of f-you money.
Here's my point ... so what? He's had a coronary and isn't exactly living a great life. My sister has made the life of everyone around her, esp her husband, miserable. This is the problem with having a sibling with histrionic and borderline personality disorder. As for dad, he's got his own neurosis.
As for my avatar, she's a look-a-like/doppelganger of a Nova Scotian esc*rt, I'd been with, in prior years. I'm not in touch with her, anymore.
Not sure if you pay attention to what you posted above, but you sound a little self-centered. Life is about giving. It feels great when we can afford to give without expecting anything in return. If you can afford to help dad out or even your sister, you should consider it.
I was curious about your avatar and had my assistant look into it. Her name is Grettell Valdez. She is a Mexican actress. Married in 2004 and divorced in 2010. Regardless, she's pretty.
I have around 400K of total savings (besides 401k) and a house that is 70% paid off. I am trying to figure out if i should spend $200K of my savings:
1. leave it in savings and continue to live poor now and driving my 10 year old honda civic with lot of body damage inflicted by other people.
2. buy 2015 BMW X5 for $60K + remodel home for $100K and put the rest ($40K) in retirement account?
3. live poor and continue driving beat up honda civic, but use $200K as downpayment for a second home in hawaii - my long term goal is to own two homes fully paid off - live in one and rent out the other for spending money.
I would use the money and pay-off the house. Personally, I don't like the idea of buying a second home. Are you sure you want to travel to the same place all the times? Don't mine if you want to get a new car if you can pay cash for it, and it doesn't hurt your bottom line. Remodeling your house is not a bad idea. Not a fan of retirement account. It's a freaking scam. Only contribute to your 401k up to maximum your company will match and not a penny more.
Once your house is paid off and you have some money stashed away, you are essentially untouchable. Don't you want to be untouchable? Untouchable means f-you money.
As much as your sister is so messed up, I bet your dad still loves her. You might want to ask your dad on the next family gathering.
Nice avatar by the way. She's pretty. What's her name?
Thanks for sharing.
There are certain things in life money can't buy. Being a dad is one of them. You won't understand it unless you have been there. Of course, I'm not trying to convince you. :0)
Not a fan of basketball.
Many ppl would rather do their hobbies like fixing cars, playing a guitar, seeing escort gals, etc.
Gotta love it. Anything that comes from Rin has "escort" in it. LOL!!!
This is bullshit. It obviously depend on the size of the windfall. $1M? $500M?
NOTHING is everything, but money will buy you most things.
Couldn't agree more. Enjoy the life of doing whatever you want to do, then tell me if you still want to work. What a bunch of manure.
Just like those saying "money doesn't buy happiness" are typically those that don't have money. LOL!!!
Inflation? We should be happy that we still have inflation now. Without our government's assistance and involvement, we would have deflation now. Of course, I'm happy and laughing all the way to the bank.
Thank you very much Mr. Ben Bernanke. You are my hero. (No Sarcasm)
It's not the Fed... It's all the excess cash being hoarded right now.
Who is doing the hoarding?
The days of savings earning money for nothing (e.g. in CDs) are over.
That's what you get for relying on others. Who cares about CDs when you can make 1%/month doing hard money loans at 65% LTV? In fact, you can borrow money at the bank at 2.5%, turn around and lend it for 12% and make 9.5% using OPM.
Come on. It's almost too simple. It has been done for centuries. You don't have to reinvent the wheels. You just have to get off the couch, put a little effort into it, and reap the rewards.
Given the options, cash in refi makes the most sense to me. I'm totally against the idea of selling. Even losing $200/month, that's $24k in 10 years. If history is any indication, there's a high probability the condo will worth $500k by then.
Although this investment is a dog, he can turn it around with a cash in refi. It's the cost of learning. The alternative is to find another positive cashflow investment to off set this dog. Given where we are in the cycle, finding another property that makes sense is not an easy task. Out of state investing is sure a loser even though the numbers look so rosy on paper.
Final thoughts ?
E-MAN, Iwog , Sface , suboink - happy new year to you and everyone else on the board
What SF ace said above. There is no reason 2015 will not be a positive year for real estate although the rate of appreciation might moderate.
1) up the rent.
Given the value of the condo, $1,900/month in rent sounds about. It's not like we can just up the rent without much consideration. My guess is he can push it to $2k/month max. At $2,100/month and he is at the risk of losing his tenant.
Waiting till summer to refinance is a great idea. I would suggest waiting till fall because the sold comps in the summer be recorded by then. There is a high probability that we will see mid single digit appreciation in 2015. Condos and townhomes have been outperforming SFHs in appreciation in the recent years because they were hit the hardest. So fingers crossed on your condo value in another 2-3 quarters.
Some people might say cash in refi is throwing good money after bad. It depends on your personal financial situation and your risk tolerance. I'd do exactly what I suggested above, but that's me.
Total Real Property: $205,000
Gross Assessment and Tax: $205,000
Homeowners Exemption: $7,000
Net Assessment and Tax: $198,000
How much exactly can I depreciate (1/27.5)? Is the depreciation based on $198,000 or more?
You can only depreciate the improvements, not land value. Therefore, $143k/27.5 years = $5,200/year. Since your income is above $150k, your passive losses will carry forward and off-set your gains in the future when you sell. So not all is lost. This is where being legally married cost you unless both of you are making more than $100k each. What can I say? Our tax code sucks
This is no doubt an alligator. I would bite the bullet and hang onto it for various reasons. If history is any indication, this condo would worth $1M to $1.2M in 30 years. That's a nice chunk of change compared to investing in the stock market. If you sell now, you basically walk away with about $10k. The positive thing is that, you will have about $100k loss that you can write-off for the foreseeable future at a rate of $3k/year. If you have company stock options that you can exercise and off-set the $100k loss in the near future, selling might make some sense.
If you want to make the situation more bearable, you would have to bring money to the table and do a cash-in refinance. You can get interest rate around 4.375% at 75% LTV on an investment condo. If you go with a 5/1 ARM, the interest rate is around 3.5%.
If you believe interest rates will not rise significantly in the future like I do, refinance it into a 1-year ARM at 1.75%. Terms are 1-month LIBOR + 1.56% margin. 1-month LIBOR is around 0.16% the last time I checked. However, they will only loan up to 70% LTV.
Disclosure: I'm currently refinancing two of my investment properties into this loan program. I'm looking at cutting my mortgage payments around $950/month on both. Interest saving is just shy of $17k/year. Loan qualification is based on 6.5% interest rate, which is quite conservative. Minimum loan amount is $200k. I can introduce you to my loan officer if interested.
There is nothing magical about real estate. The more problems you can solve, the more money you make.
Happy New Year.
How much is the condo worth?
Do you have a loan on the condo?
Do you currently have an umbrella insurance?
Do you want one?
Does your renter have a renter's policy?