Thanks for sharing Barry Goldwater's letter. Barry got it right. You can't change people's mind. People will believe what they want to believe.
Let's get back to economics. Based on the current economic indicators, there's no recession insight, but that can change in the coming quarters. What does your crystal ball say? I think you're a little too bullish while I'm starting to get cautious. I believe we're approaching the last phase of the cycle. Things should remain good until spring/summer 2017, but all bets are off after that IMHO. I will re-evaluate my position then.
With that said, I'm with you that there's no recession this year or even the 1st half of next year, but what about the 2nd half of 2017 or 2018? I expect the next recession to be a mild one so regardless of who's getting elected, that person has a high probability of being a one term president if history is any indication. Let me ask you this: what do you think will be the catalyst for the next recession?
The politicians are hypocrites. 2015 was the first year that 100% of Pkennedy's income was from his rentals. Guess his tax bracket after depreciation. 1%. LOL! He's doing everything legally within the IRC.
The politicians wrote the tax code for themselves. It's your job to use it to your advantage. If you're not, you have no one to blame but the person you see in the mirror every morning.
Such an easy answer for someone who came to America from a communist country.
Let's put things in perspective. How many people do you know that escape from a communist country to a capitalist country? How many people do you know that escape from a capitalist country to a communist country? There's your answer.
Losers. Fair and Affordable to whom? Taking something that has proven to further restrict supply and drive up rent for others to task again. What's the definition of insanity again? Stupid is stupid does, and I thought this was a free country. A whole bunch losers at work with a whole bunch of entitled losers. I didn't think this beautiful state of CA could produce so much losers.
Mostly, most don't understand location, location, location is in 2016 will be location X5 in 2026. The calculators have a basic flaw that don't understand people pay $$ for value and they sure will be a lot more.
Not only location, location, location, but also timing, timing and timing. Right location always helps, but right timing will bail you out in any market cycles.
Thanks for pointing/proving out Patrick's calculator's are complete junk.
Take it easy there. Patrick is a smart dude, but he's too stubborn. Pkennedy and I had lunch with him a couple times in 2011 and 2012, and Pkennedy tried to convince him, but he wouldn't listen. Instead, he said he was on a mission. Sigh....
Instead of looking at the history of Bay Area real estate, Patrick relied on some phantom calculator and got priced out AGAIN for the 2nd time. That's16-17 years of his life went by, and he's still a renter.
As much as some people don't like to admit, most long for being a homeowner. How many 17 years do we have in our lifetime? 4 maybe 5 if we're lucky. I don't see myself being a renter ever again. I don't like to live on other's terms.
I wish Patrick and other renters the best of luck as it seems like the chance of homeownership in the Bay Area especially the Peninsula and SF is getting further and further away. Moving to the East Bay or out of state is always an option though.
Interesting, three of my tenants have recently asked me if I would sell my rental to them. Yes, it's the house they're currently reside in. I told them I'm open to it. If everything goes accordingly, I'll sell one to one of them this April. 😳
This guy allowed his hatred of realtors to get in the way of common sense. Some Patnetters bought during the downturn while some are still renting. We only have one chance at this life. Don't let this stupid housing situation hold us back for years and possibly a decade. If it's close enough, buy, be done with it and move on with your life.
I came to this country at the age of almost 16 without speaking the language. People used to make fun of my English in high school. I guess kids were being kids. I would love to meet those people again to see how they're doing with their lives.
I've toned out the noise and just follow the data. While everyone here was yelling and screaming at each other about buy or rent, I've accumulated 27 rentals (my share). I started out with $100k in savings and a $250k HELOC on my house. I've started selling off a couple in December and intend to sell a couple more this year to raise cash and pay-off my primary residence.
I haven't had a job since 2009 and don't intend to ever go back to a W2 job ever again. If everything goes accordingly, I'll retire my wife off her W2 next year and should be able to generate $40k-$50k/year by 2018. Half of the money will go to our living expenses while half of the money will go to charities.
Do what is right for you and your family. Listen to others' opinion is good, but you should draw your conclusion and act on it accordingly. I wish you the best of luck.
I'd sell for this reason. Otherwise, I would consider hanging onto it for the following reasons:
Option 1: Sell at $220k and net about $90k profit. Tax liability is about $30k after factored in 15% long-term capital gains, 10% state tax and 25% depreciation recapture. You walk away with about $80k.
Option 2: Do a cash-out refinance at 75% LTV. You walk away with about $67k after fees and closing costs. Your cash-flow is close to neutral, but someone is buying you a house.
The delta is $13k between the two options. If you don't see yourself as a long distance landlord and given the fact that the house is in a questionable neighborhood, I'm a seller. Also, the market is approaching the top and your rental is in a tertiary market, which tends to take the biggest hit during a recession.
Why still the bitterness even after you have moved? Like everything in life, you take the good with the bad. It's great if you have more good than bad. Not everyone can just pick up their bag and move. We have families, friends and community. Not every community in CA is bad. Not everywhere in CA is as foggy as Monterey where you used to reside. This doesn't make them stupid for not wanting to move out of CA.
People live where they live for a reason. The fact that you could just pick up your bag and moved across the country shows you value something else more than families and friends. Everyone's priority is different. Get out there do so something positive for the country instead of being bitter about CA.
I don't know if it's life at the moment of conception, but to say that there's no life before birth? Really? A 4- to 9-month old baby is the mom's womb is not life? WTF is the matter with you people? Have you talked to women who had an abortion? How many of them are being haunted or traumatized for life?
Everything in life has a price. You will pay for your action one way or another day. As a Budhist, I truly believe in karma.