- On 19 May 2013
in
Would shorter amortizations make the housing market safer?,
E-man said:
Actually, cash or f.u. would make the housing market safer.
for the 1%
LOL! So true. I advocated for 0% down payment for owner-occupy, but Patnet readers were against it. It boils down to "be careful what you wish for."
- On 16 May 2013
in
Denial Or Avoidance Won't Fix Housing Or Grow The Economy,
E-man said:
Denial and avoidance is better than the alternative. We will take the path of least resistance until we can no longer handle the pain.
Yes, the alternative is that scary. So be careful what you wish for.
- On 16 May 2013
in
SF Bay Area median housing sale price $510,000,
E-man said:
That means we have 3 more up years?
who wants to play Russian roulette ?
I don't know. I'm just asking. At this pace of appreciation, I'm selling half of my holding next summer. I'd rather be 1 year early than 1 year late.
it seems be it Japans RE bubble or our own 1990/2006, anything remotely tied to RE speculation at the end becomes suicidal. we are way to weak to be exposed to another economic downturn and recession.
That's why the Fed will not allow it to happen. Looking at the recent reported CPI, it seems like another QE is on the wing now. QEternity baby.
- On 16 May 2013
in
SF Bay Area median housing sale price $510,000,
E-man said:
That means we have 3 more up years?
who wants to play Russian roulette ?
I don't know. I'm just asking. At this pace of appreciation, I'm selling half of my holding next summer. I'd rather be 1 year early than 1 year late.
- On 16 May 2013
in
SF Bay Area median housing sale price $510,000,
E-man said:
At the top of the market, the median price was $665k at 7% interest rate. At the bottom of the market, the median price was at $375k at 4.75%. Now we're at $510k at 3.5%
prebubble it was $200-250K. with Ubber rich Marin being $375K. or about $100-115 per sq ft. Go figure!
I've been in the housing market since 1996 so I know what you're saying. Back in 2010, you argued that we would drop back to the (green) inflation line from your FHFA graph. I told you that it will not happen in your lifetime, and I still believe that is the case.
- On 16 May 2013
in
SF Bay Area median housing sale price $510,000,
E-man said:
In a separate story, the same paper reported that's more than 10x the median income.
sounds like 2003 rather than 2013... sounds to familar.
That means we have 3 more up years?
- On 16 May 2013
in
SF Bay Area median housing sale price $510,000,
E-man said:
Real estate is about control and leverage.
Oh gimme a break you jackanape...BA RRE is OTT and you damn well know it.
Not that I personally care...
I have no clue what you're talking about uncle Jody.
- On 16 May 2013
in
Would shorter amortizations make the housing market safer?,
E-man said:
Actually, cash for f.u. would make the housing market safer.
- On 16 May 2013
in
From Brooklyn to California, Housing Bubble Threat Grows,
E-man said:
Borrowing $500k at 7% for 30 years fixed is different with borrowing at 3.5%. If you're a high networth client, you can borrow $1M at 2.2% interest rate at Charles Schwab, or 2.875% at US bank.
We're no where near a bubble yet.
- On 16 May 2013
in
SF Bay Area median housing sale price $510,000,
E-man said:
Let's put things in perspective.
At the top of the market, the median price was $665k at 7% interest rate. At the bottom of the market, the median price was at $375k at 4.75%. Now we're at $510k at 3.5%.
Had you bought at the bottom of the market and put 20% down, your $75k deposit would have given you $135k in equity gain. If you refinance now, you can pull out all your down payment and more, and transfer all the risk onto the lender.
Real estate is about control and leverage. How can you control the most properties using OPM.
- On 29 Apr 2013
in
Signs The Housing Market Is Starting To Head South,
E-man said:
You'd have to excuse my partner. He says a lot, and we don't agree all the time so it's normal that you disagree with him. Pushing on a string or not doesn't impact us. Our investment loans are 3.875% to 4.25% and everyone of them is generating positive cashflow.
Congratulations on your growing empire! It sounds like the two of you are good partners.
I just wanted to say that I've refinanced all three investment mortgages with Amerisave at 3 5/8%. It looks like the 1% investor premium is all but gone now and the difference between the rentals and my primary is only 1/8th.
Interesting strategy with the 1031 exchange. I've considered something like that but I've heard it's fraught with peril. Best of luck to you.
Thanks Iwog. We're just lucky. Those are fantastic rates that you got there. We're doing a cash-out refinance on a condo now, and the rate was locked at 3.875% with $1,200 credit for closing costs. Not as good as yours, but we're happy with it.
- On 28 Apr 2013
in
80k profit on a flip in 20 days??,
E-man said:
Ouch. The margin is tight. These guys are working for peanuts. Well, making some money is better than making no money I guess.
- On 28 Apr 2013
in
Signs The Housing Market Is Starting To Head South,
E-man said:
pkennedy said: Unfortunately, there are a whole slew of people under water, and these recent housing price jumps are going to get them OUT from underwater, and they will actively sell and buy, creating lots of inventory, which will support these new home prices.
Hey, aren't you supposed to be building your dream home in the southern hemisphere?
I agree with the first part that you said -- essentially that is what the Fed 'stabilization' program is all about. Not so sure about the second part (sell and move up). The first bubble stole buyers from the future, at this point we're just trying to make sure they don't make a 'rational' decision and leave. What was irrational with a fully amortizing ARM or underwater home becomes a lot easier to stomach at 3.5%. I can't help but wonder if the strange market we're seeing now is going to turn into a 'pushing on a string' exercise.
@EBGuy,
You'd have to excuse my partner. He says a lot, and we don't agree all the time so it's normal that you disagree with him. Pushing on a string or not doesn't impact us. Our investment loans are 3.875% to 4.25% and everyone of them is generating positive cashflow.
- On 29 Mar 2013
in
Home prices still 50% too low in Bay Area - rent STILL cost twice the mortgage.,
E-man said:
If I had $271k in cash, I might lend it to a flipper at 14% a month.
Can I get the name of the flippers who are paying that kind of interest rate? I'd love to loan them some money at 10%/month, and I'll let you keep 4% referral fee.
- On 29 Mar 2013
in
Home prices still 50% too low in Bay Area - rent STILL cost twice the mortgage.,
E-man said:
I suspect Patricks wife works so he can fart around all day with this website. If so, good job!!!!
LOL! Now that's funny. @Patrick, great job. That'd make two of us, and I'm very proud of it.
- On 27 Mar 2013
in
US home prices surge. Will it hold on,
E-man said:
As long as interest rate is below 4% and Consumer confidence is trending up, there will be plenty of demand to push home prices further.
I see the surge through 2014.
Surge through 2014 and not 2016? At this pace, I will be very nervous by 2015.
@iwog, looks like we will go through continuous boom and bust cycles like pre Great Depression. Is history repeat itself??? :)
- On 27 Mar 2013
in
I just bought a house and it will cost half as much to own vs rent same house,
E-man said:
Well 20% price appreciation is pretty sweet. I will let you all know what my best offer is - plan to sell in June.
Already? You just barely moved in. Imagine after you cashed out and we get hit with hyperinflation. Isn't that going to wipe you out? :)
Why sell now and pay capital gain? Wait until you hit the 2 year ownership mark and get $250k capital gain exclusion. $500k if you're married or your significant other is also on the title.
- On 27 Mar 2013
in
Rents are falling.,
E-man said:
35% rise in prices plus unsustainable rent rate may make Phoenix “scratching head” for money managers think that maybe is a time to take profits.
@REpro,
So when do you think it's time to take some chips off the table for the Bay Area? :)
- On 25 Mar 2013
in
449 Roberts Road D-1,
E-man said:
I see it went pending for 3 weeks and fell out of escrow. That's the thing about selling it to a financing buyer nowaday. Just take the all cash with no contingency offer and call it a day.
This agent doesn't do a very good job. 21 days contingency in this market?
- On 25 Mar 2013
in
I just bought a house and it will cost half as much to own vs rent same house,
E-man said:
the fly in his ointment is interest rates.
if the interest rate rises, the property becomes unbearable
You can lock a 15-year fixed for 2.75% or 30-year fixed for 3.5% right now. Who cares if interest rate rises. Did you know that FHA loans are assumable? Why pay the high interest rate when you can assume the low interest rate loans?
Man, I love real estate.
- On 22 Mar 2013
in
Is The Housing Market Really Improving?,
E-man said:
Is The Housing Market Really Improving?
Yes. The numbers don't lie. Home builders are hiring.
- On 22 Mar 2013
in
What Could Cause Interest Rates to Rise?,
E-man said:
What Could Cause Interest Rates to Rise?
Japan is a good example. 3% @ 30-year fixed interest rate here I come. I believe we will see 3% interest rate before 6%.
- On 21 Mar 2013
in
Will prices go down in SF Bay Area?,
E-man said:
Any insights are appreciated...
Of course it will go down again in the future. The next housing bottom is 2021-2023.
- On 21 Mar 2013
in
Someone said..if 5 years from now hous eprices are up by 25% in March 2011,
E-man said:
Have been hearing on radio about "zero down mortgages" again over here. This time, the ad claims "they are not old subprime types, but government sponsored FHAs". Yes, our government/the Fed is doubling down on housing.
Where have you been? They have been offering "zero down mortgages" forever. A relative bought a brand new townhouse in San Jose in 2010 with 0.5% down. Not quite 0%, but close. The builder paid for all closing costs. Got a ton of free upgrades. Got $10k state tax credit on top of the 3% credit the lender gave toward the deposit. :)
- On 21 Mar 2013
in
Someone said..if 5 years from now hous eprices are up by 25% in March 2011,
E-man said:
Sit back, grab a beer, and watch SFBA and PHX Bubble#2...
Yep. Sit back, drink beer and watch. You will get another chance to buy in 10 years. There's a couple of gentlemen on here that have been waiting to buy since 1998. Guess what? They're still waiting. What' another 10 years when they've been waiting for 15?