Happy Thanksgiving to you and your family. Just calm down. It's unfortunate for sure. However, we have no one to blame but ourselves. Our lives are a direct result of our choices. If we don't like our lives, it's time we make better choices. Like a river, we cannot touch the same water twice. It's because the flow that has passed will never pass again. So enjoy and cherish every moment of your lives with your loved ones.
Like you, I found this site in late 2009. There's so much emotion involved when we discussed about housing. However, it's our job to screen out the noise and separate the smart ones from the dumb ones. Some people are still bitter about it until this day for different reason. That's not a good way to go through life IMO.
I found a real estate investment partner on Patnet, who has now retired in Natal, Brazil since February 2014 at the age of 40. Thanks to some good housing investments that we made between 2011 to 2013 which has enabled him and his wife to enjoy life now. He goes by the "pkennedy" handle. Let me see if I can ring him up @pkennedy. I have since moved on because the sentiment on this site is quite negative. However, Patnet will always hold a special place in my heart. This is where I met one of my investment partners and have made some friends.
While people are still yelling and screaming that housing is getting expensive, this has been my best year in terms of investment. My new partner and I picked up a total of 28 units in downtown San Jose for $4.615MM. That's about 165k/unit. Gross rents is about 451k/year while fair market rent is north of $580k. This is a direct result of "If I want something in my life that I've never had, I'll have to do something that I've never done." We all will have to do what we have to do UNTIL we can do what we want to do. What I want is to be able to spend my life in my own way.
It's sad that you and some others have realized Patrick's flawed advice too late. SF ace pointed this out many times in the past. It's unfortunate that the market has left you and them in the dust and now have to face the reality of being renters for life if you're sticking around here. Patrick's owner could uprooted him at anytime, that's when he would face the reality of cut throat rent on the Peninsula.
With that said, take it easy. Find peace within yourself. Happy Thanksgiving to all!
They did. They waited patiently and watched the housing market went by. This was an opportunity once in a lifetime for an average Joe to get ahead in life. The average Joe was able to buy properties with 25% down, and some even house hacked with an FHA loan at 3.5% down. Now they own income producing assets for their entire life while jacking it the rents year in and year out. Thanks to Mr. and Mrs. tenants for buying your landlord a building.
The housing market for average Joe undoubted blow the returns in the stock market out of the water in the last 6 years.
they raise taxes, cut pensions, wages, cut imports, increase exports, cut the bureaucracy, etc...
This is the wrong thinking. The more taxes they raise, the more they spend. How responsible do you think government bodies with spending other people's money when they know they can raise taxes if the need more?
People love to vote for raising taxes when they're not the ones paying it. They just don't realize that the rich are well connected and get around paying taxes with loopholes. The middle class and the poor will eventually ending up paying the most in taxes. Talking about voting against your best interest.
This is why I say screw W-2 job. Owners will pay just enough so their employees don't quit while employees will work just hard enough not to get fired. When you work for others, you build their dreams. Why not work for yourself and build your own dreams.
Stop taking the abuse from the owner and orders from your union? Take control of your own destiny for god sake crying outloud. Go in your office on Monday, give your boss a middle finger and get the hell out the there. If you keep working for others and keep letting them squeeze you, you have no one to blame but yourself.
When iwog hired a newly graduated attorney to work for his firm during the recent downturn, he paid her $40k/year while he knew the fair market salary was $50k. This goes back to my first point above. There's a price to be paid working for others. There is no frickin guarantee when you will get canned or they will chop off your benefits and salary.
The only two things that are guaranteed in life are death and taxes. You only have one life to live. Make the most of it by building your own dreams and memories instead of others. If not, put your head back in the sand and keep on getting abused. Don't come on here or anywhere else to whine and bitch.
If history is any indication, the Bay Area will likely go into a recession in the 2nd half of 2017 or 2018. The bottom of the next real estate market will be around 2020-2022. However, the correction will not be very steep. 20%-25% maximum is my guess. This has been my guess for a couple of years now. Right or wrong, this is only one man's opinion.
Don't listen to music. Don't watch TV much. Spend about $50/year on 4-5 finance and real estate books. Used books are quite cheap. I don't think I have spent anywhere near $1,500 on books. Some books can be downloaded for free.
Listen to finance and real estate podcasts when driving. They're also free. These subjects can also layer to life, on top of things, like thinking of ways to increase and protect financial wealth not only for this generation, but hopefully also for future generations. All in all, we spend about the same amount of money. We just have different interest. There is truly no right or wrong answer. Whatever floats your boat. :-)
Hope all is well. It seems like software engineers currently rule the Silicon Valley. I have been out of the work force for almost 6 years now so I'm clueless on what's really going on out there. Instead of going to work every morning, I spend my morning sitting at home and thinking of ways to generate more wealth for myself and future generations.
Your comment about the road less traveled reminds me of this saying "Entrepreneurship is living a few years of your life like most people won't so you can spend the rest of your life like most people can't." Most people take the safe road by going to school, trying to get a good job after graduated and ending up working for others and making their bosses' dreams become a reality. Thus, I don't consider going into a minority field to be a road less traveled. Just my opinion of course.
If history is any indication, this market will top out around 230. It's hard to believe the housing market can go up another 25%- 30% from here, but history repeats itself.
Saved for posterity.
I was looking at the Case Shiller HPI this morning, which currently stands at 214, and I remember of your post. In just over 1 year, the HPI goes from 181 to 214. What's the likelihood of it hitting 230 do you think?
VCs have been air dropping $7-8billion a year into the Bay Area. SoCal has been getting injections of a couple of billion dollars a year. Party like its 1999.
The biggest difference is that a lot of current start-up companies are making money compared to 1999 where a lot of companies were burning money. Although we're not at the peak yet IMHO, things are getting a little frothy out there. Just be careful.
Wow good for him. Though, I'm not sure I would post his pictures out there publicly.
I don't think they care. They're in Brazil. He knows Patrick personally. He can ask Patrick to take the photos down if he doesn't like them.
Just to prove a point that taking risk at an appropriate time can yield huge returns. The same effort can be used to think of ways to make more money instead of save money. It works for us. Others should try sometimes.
He also got lucky that the Real lost a lot of value. When he moved there, the exchange rate was 1 dollar = 2.15 real. Now, it's over 3 real for a dollar. He's been living large. Lucky guy and gal.
Patrick.net will always have a special place in my heart. This is where I met a complete stranger, who shared a lot of common interests. We invested in real estate together during the downturn. Thanks to those investments, he could afford to retire in Natal, Brazil with his Brazilian wife since February 2014 at the age of 41. Here are some pics for those who have met pkennedy in person.
liberal politicians who he criticizes for placating discontented middle and lower class voters with affordable housing which led to numerous painful distortions
It's probably all true. No politician is going to win election promising to lower home valuations.
The idea is ludicrous on its face.
This is a classic case of the unintended consequences. As master oogway said "One often meets his destiny on the road he takes to avoid it."
Not sure why people keep on whining and bitching about real estate in the Bay Area while it has proven time and time again that waiting on the sideline can be costly. Why do you think the housing bear website now becomes a Bay Area hi-tech site?
But when you tell someone without kids that they're self-centered, you blow right through the border crossing into DoucheLand.
It's normal; these folks have elevated Oxytocin (as oppose to Oxycontin), levels which gives 'em a sense of bonding and belonging. The fact that other ppl don't need that, since we're able to function independently, is surprising.
The self-centered comment was regarding to the post about your dad and maybe your sister. HydroCabron took things out of context like some other posters on this site. I People judge you by what you say since most of us are strangers on Patnet.
As you can see, I didn't accuse you of lying about your avatar. You always have to give people the benefit of the doubts. As you explained above, both your dad and your sister have ignored your advice for the last three decades. Thus, it got to the point where you don't give a damn about them anymore, which is understandable.
Now going back to being a dad, I didn't know what I didn't know until I became a dad. That's how special it feels. Like you, I'm fortunate enough to be in a position where I control my own time. I get to spend as much time with my daughter as I want to. You get to go bang hoes at your own discretion. Isn't that what financial freedom is all about? You can tell anyone, like your boss or supervisor, who wants you to do something to go eff themselves. :0)
Here's my point ... so what? He's had a coronary and isn't exactly living a great life. My sister has made the life of everyone around her, esp her husband, miserable. This is the problem with having a sibling with histrionic and borderline personality disorder. As for dad, he's got his own neurosis.
As for my avatar, she's a look-a-like/doppelganger of a Nova Scotian esc*rt, I'd been with, in prior years. I'm not in touch with her, anymore.
Not sure if you pay attention to what you posted above, but you sound a little self-centered. Life is about giving. It feels great when we can afford to give without expecting anything in return. If you can afford to help dad out or even your sister, you should consider it.
I was curious about your avatar and had my assistant look into it. Her name is Grettell Valdez. She is a Mexican actress. Married in 2004 and divorced in 2010. Regardless, she's pretty.
I have around 400K of total savings (besides 401k) and a house that is 70% paid off. I am trying to figure out if i should spend $200K of my savings:
1. leave it in savings and continue to live poor now and driving my 10 year old honda civic with lot of body damage inflicted by other people.
2. buy 2015 BMW X5 for $60K + remodel home for $100K and put the rest ($40K) in retirement account?
3. live poor and continue driving beat up honda civic, but use $200K as downpayment for a second home in hawaii - my long term goal is to own two homes fully paid off - live in one and rent out the other for spending money.
I would use the money and pay-off the house. Personally, I don't like the idea of buying a second home. Are you sure you want to travel to the same place all the times? Don't mine if you want to get a new car if you can pay cash for it, and it doesn't hurt your bottom line. Remodeling your house is not a bad idea. Not a fan of retirement account. It's a freaking scam. Only contribute to your 401k up to maximum your company will match and not a penny more.
Once your house is paid off and you have some money stashed away, you are essentially untouchable. Don't you want to be untouchable? Untouchable means f-you money.