comments by SFace

SFace   befriend   ignore   Wed, 12 Aug 2015, 5:57pm PDT   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 1

"10.Because there is a huge glut of empty new houses. Builders are being forced
to drop prices even faster than owners"

It's 2015 not 2009.

SFace   befriend   ignore   Wed, 12 Aug 2015, 5:56pm PDT   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 2

"9.Because boomers are retiring. There are 70 million Americans born between
1945-1960. One-third have zero retirement savings. The oldest are 66. The
only money they have is equity in a house, so they must sell."

The boomer will not sell for another 20 years.

SFace   befriend   ignore   Wed, 12 Aug 2015, 5:55pm PDT   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 3

"8.Because first-time buyers have all been ruthlessly exploited and the
supply of new victims is very low."

Prices are at record in-spite of record low home ownership rate. Money buys home not first time buyers.

SFace   befriend   ignore   Wed, 12 Aug 2015, 5:54pm PDT   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 4

"7.Because there is still a massive backlog of latent foreclosures"

It's 2015 not 2009.

SFace   befriend   ignore   Wed, 12 Aug 2015, 5:51pm PDT   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 5

"6.Because the housing bubble was not driven by supply and demand. There
is huge supply because of overbuilding, and there is less demand now that the
baby boomers are retiring and selling."

This is also so 2005 when 2M homes were built for 5 straight years, most in suburbs and exburbs. For the past 8 years, homes are underbuilt, less than 1M, which drives the supply problem now. Boomers are not selling for another 20 years which means the generation x will pay for it.

SFace   befriend   ignore   Wed, 12 Aug 2015, 5:50pm PDT   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 6

"5.Because buyers used too much leverage. Leverage means using debt to amplify
gain"

This is also so 2005. real estate leverage is pretty low.

SFace   befriend   ignore   Wed, 12 Aug 2015, 5:48pm PDT   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 7

"4.Because buyers already borrowed too much money and cannot pay it back."

That is a 2005 argument, not 2015.

SFace   befriend   ignore   Wed, 12 Aug 2015, 5:46pm PDT   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 8

"3.Because it's a terrible time to buy when interest rates are low, like now."

While that may true, interest rate have trended down in one direction for 30 years. Good luck waiting for interest to be back to 1980, which is never. Low interest makes carrying assets cheaper. Most homes are now off the market forever because of low interest rates. record low inventory amid record prices proves this

SFace   befriend   ignore   Wed, 12 Aug 2015, 5:43pm PDT   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike (1)     Comment 9

"2.Because it's usually still much cheaper to rent than to own the same size
and quality house, "

flawed logic. whether it is cheaper to own or rent is based on future unknown factors (future rent and future price). The lifetime owner in Palo Alto is at least 10 time richer than the liftetime renter in Palo Alto.

SFace   befriend   ignore   Wed, 12 Aug 2015, 5:41pm PDT   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 10

"1.Because house prices are in expensive areas still dangerously high compared
to incomes and rents."

Flawed logic. Homes are expensive because people pay for them and will pay even more for them. It's proven prime homes gets people rich. Buying cheap homes keeps you broke. location, location, location is not going to change, ah maybe location x5.

SFace   befriend   ignore   Fri, 7 Aug 2015, 10:49am PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 11

as always, it cools down in the late summer. After the superbowl in Santa Clara, buyers will be bat shit crazy again.

SFace   befriend   ignore   Tue, 4 Aug 2015, 2:06pm PDT   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 12

"hey, does apple have any office space in san francisco?

have not been able to find where it is if they do."

They just leased a 76K square foot place in SOMA. Probably for the digital music entity.

SFace   befriend   ignore   Tue, 4 Aug 2015, 1:54pm PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 13

rents are local issues. The logical way to fix it is supply.

taxing rent just means the renter pays for it.
There is a lot of fundamental issues with fixing something with policies when a lot of taxes are federal, state and local specific in nature.

The way I see it, the USA is a big damn place and there is cheap rent somewhere.

SFace   befriend   ignore   Mon, 20 Jul 2015, 12:15am PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 14

The returns gragh is reason why software guys should stay away from commenting about housing.

You get that result if the home is vacant. In the real world, duh, homes collect rent or avoid rent. Once that duh,momment comes in, real estate is the best investment vehicle.

You know that because it pass the eyes test as the rich ass owns all the land. Real estate is the most common path to wealth in this world.

You know that real estate kick ass because the vanguard real estate index beats the legendary 500 index if you bought both from day 1 of existence. Look it up yourself. Vanguard real estate index vgsix, which has a 20 year history would made you a richer than the 500.

SFace   befriend   ignore   Sat, 18 Jul 2015, 6:37pm PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 15

The reality is your typical owner in Palo alto is much richer than the renter. I.Don't know, millions more.

They own all homes and almost all the stocks. You cant tell me with a straight face that is the winning formula. Renting in Menlo park for two decades.

These points sounds great in theory, but fails the reality test.

SFace   befriend   ignore   Fri, 17 Jul 2015, 1:31pm PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 16

These advice killed a lot of people financially recently.

SFace   befriend   ignore   Wed, 8 Jul 2015, 3:04pm PDT   Share   Quote   Like (3)   Dislike (1)     Comment 17

Right now, It's damned if you buy and more damned if you rent. That's what make Patrick.net so devastating and ruin a lot of people the last 4 years and why I commented as much as I did and debunked Patrick's "xx" book and gave Thomaswong a hard time since Dec 2009.

SFace   befriend   ignore   Tue, 7 Jul 2015, 8:53pm PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 18

software engineering. Pretty much every company in this world would love some code to solve some of their many business problems. The possibilities of coding and the problem it can solve are limited only by capability.

For example, Uber's taxi calling platform for the customer and driver is a brilliant piece of software yet there is so much more potential to make it better.

SFace   befriend   ignore   Tue, 7 Jul 2015, 8:33pm PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 19

There's just no seller right now, regardless of the stupendous price. There are too many reasons to hold on to homes forever. My best guess is price comes down ahead of the next recession, around 2H of 2017. That would make it 5 up years which is always followed by 3 lean ones.

SFace   befriend   ignore   Wed, 24 Jun 2015, 1:56pm PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 20

It's not the fine itself but putting some teeth to scare people to comply. Basic government trick.

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