but now I want to focus on SF tech companies.
and you will get crickets.
I've spent a lot of time since 2009 to tell the forum to throw the rent buy calculator in the garbage bin. To think of it, the whole ten reasons are crap and useless, or worst just wealth killers.
It's obvious Patrick does not know the factors into buy/sell. He uses more in the software science, math science with hard logic. I view it more from a social and behavior science or applied. If you know the calculator, it's just an input bias and nothing more.
The fall of home ownership (from tight lending) is extremely bullish for the housing market
It's a damn if you do (housing price) and more damned if you don't market (rent are way up and trending up).
I remember all those on Patnet in 2009 blessed the buy/rent calculator with 1% rent increase. Looks pretty foolish to me.
The low transaction #'s is a reason to love the housing market. It is a bullish as hell indicator.
starts have been going up, as it should. Buying will lag the rental demand in timing. Don't make it more complicated than it is. Your 23 year old renter today will be a 30 year old buyer.
Demographics will give us housing "demand" for years to come. Rent price increase is bullish for housing price. For sales of supply home is way too low against demographic trends.
The endgame for biotech is always going to be acquired or Bankrupt. Intermune next.
It does not matter, there are hosts of new biotech companies that will pick it up. There were what 60-80 biotech IPO's in the last 12 months and at least 15-20 were SFBA.
If you feel like you have more money than you need to retire, or on the path for the 2.5M or so some money article put out recently.
I would just raise my lifestyle from say 5K a month to 7K a month instead of decision 1, 2, 3 and 4. It's more sustained as the excitement of a new X5 lasts 18 days. A lot of retirement stuff focuses on having money when you are old and frail. it is at the expense of your young years. Have a proper balance and spend some money before you are too old to use it. Why wait to buy a second home in Hawaii when you have wrinkles, just find time and go NOW. Hawaii is not all that great when you are 70
borrow from friends and family. That's how I did it at age 23 and that's how my kids will do it.
* the participation rate of 55+ is 40%. If that demographic increase due to sheer size, it brings down the overall #. duh.
* the participation rate of 25-54 is already stabilized. 83% to 81% is not a huge dropoff and that trend already stopped. 81% participation rate is frankly as high as any in the world.
* 20-24 year old are staying in school longer.
It just means start-ups have more leverage to raise more money at a better price than the past.
16-24 year olds are peaking.
These % are meaningless unless you strip out 16-20 and then 62+ (when many start taking early ss and say goodbye to work). something like 50% of men and women claim SS at age 62. 16-20 and 62+ probably have participation rate of less than 15%. If they grow in #'s it drives down total. is it too hard to break it down by four brackets 16-24, 25-44, 45 - 62 and 63+???
I suspect more than half is just demographics and the other half collects rent, rich, have sugar mommas or collects assistance. If you need a job and willing, its not that difficult in the USA. Probably the easiest in this world.
I love your graphs, simple. simple conclusion.
Logan's epic fail. Don't confuse complicated as sophiscated and smart, its not.
You gotta get better grades than what is shown/reputation. simple as that.
A lot of parents (in the field) are teaching their kids how to program/code as early as age 7. Good luck competing with that. Your public school is on a no child left behind so everyone is slowed down)
There is no 401k loan with no job.
If you can't repay the loan, you get to report the income as well as pay penalty. That would make the loan as stupid as a loan shark.
It's not a surprise homeownership rate is down, which is quite bullish for the housing market.
Over the past five year, SFH has been institutionalized like a mofo. companies like Waypoint, Silver Bay, American properties, Starwood are 0 properties to 10K property portfolio trading on wall-street. How may more 2K home portfolios are out there, plenty? How many 30-50 portfolios LLC's out there, huge? This bode ill for first time homebuyers.
In the end, the only thing that can slow prices down is building and completing more new homes than that can be absorbed. That has not happened yet and which is why home prices will go up until completions go way up. The economy runs in cycle but in the end, social science tells you people compete for everything, including homes. If you can't afford it, someone else will. many factors are keeping homes off the market, the inventory number amid three years of rising prices reflect that.
Anything based on median metric is quite useless unless everyone has the same wage and wealth and no outside factors. The median household is nearly a retiree or a single person household.
The product was not useful. Making your own soda taste nasty and people gave up on it. Hence revenue dropped like a mofo.
But companies with increasing dividends are winners. So dividends can go up or down. If you get the latter , you will lose $$ just as easy.
"Of the dozen surveyed cities on four continents, Austin was reported to be home to the youngest pool of talented people, said Paul Tostevin, lead research analyst for Savills. "It's got the talent," he said."
Look at Patrick's list, it is 2000 companies deep. There are too many zero to hero companies to name. How many uber's and Airbnb's which had billion dollar funding rounds and worth 40B and 15B respectively out there in Austin?
The graphic is a visual disaster and meaningness. The box is just a visual trick for the uninformed.
Low ownership rate is a bullish indicator. There, as simple as that.
The US and western market is a tougher nut to crack. Xiaomi rise in China does not mean squat to white people.
Sorry, your graphics make no sense. It looks pretty but says absolutely nothing. When it says nothing, you know it is wrong. A bunch of confusing, circles, colors and death trap is just visual crap.
There's plenty of pent up housing demand. See Bellingham Bill's graphics, simple, easy conclusion. The 23 year old and their coming cohorts is your future demand and a housing market with a low homeownership ratio is your tailwind.
These graphs make a hell of a lot more sense to Logan's.
There are plenty of pent up demand for housing in the USA.
Yes, repealing prop 13 is the first step to fixing the land value problem. If everyone had to pay what the land was worth, we'd see a better use of it and more reasonable prices for all. As it is now, we have owners holding on to severely undervalued land and keeping it out of circulation simply because of this unfair tax law.
But don't mention it to anyone over 55. They'll start yelling ...
CA lawmakers are made up of old people who acquaint with more old people. Good luck with that one.
Besides, Prop 13 is magnified in very certain areas of the state where the flux between assessment and value are pretty extreme. For 80% of CA, there is little difference or differences that are minor. If you live in Sacramento to Riverside, prop 13 don't do squat.
It's hard to repeal a state law when the other larger half of the population don't give a crap.
why don't we make it 3% over 60 years and they'll take 80%, lol?
who the heck would choose 2% off the top in a 401k? that is simply idiotic. An index is 0.2% and most 401K are three years. For most people, they take $200 bucks over three years.
401K is the safest wealth generation tool for the majority. All the smart people max out the damn thing.
does not matter.
Divorce (paperwork wise) will work better.