The returns gragh is reason why software guys should stay away from commenting about housing.
You get that result if the home is vacant. In the real world, duh, homes collect rent or avoid rent. Once that duh,momment comes in, real estate is the best investment vehicle.
You know that because it pass the eyes test as the rich ass owns all the land. Real estate is the most common path to wealth in this world.
You know that real estate kick ass because the vanguard real estate index beats the legendary 500 index if you bought both from day 1 of existence. Look it up yourself. Vanguard real estate index vgsix, which has a 20 year history would made you a richer than the 500.
The reality is your typical owner in Palo alto is much richer than the renter. I.Don't know, millions more.
They own all homes and almost all the stocks. You cant tell me with a straight face that is the winning formula. Renting in Menlo park for two decades.
These points sounds great in theory, but fails the reality test.
These advice killed a lot of people financially recently.
Right now, It's damned if you buy and more damned if you rent. That's what make Patrick.net so devastating and ruin a lot of people the last 4 years and why I commented as much as I did and debunked Patrick's "xx" book and gave Thomaswong a hard time since Dec 2009.
software engineering. Pretty much every company in this world would love some code to solve some of their many business problems. The possibilities of coding and the problem it can solve are limited only by capability.
For example, Uber's taxi calling platform for the customer and driver is a brilliant piece of software yet there is so much more potential to make it better.
There's just no seller right now, regardless of the stupendous price. There are too many reasons to hold on to homes forever. My best guess is price comes down ahead of the next recession, around 2H of 2017. That would make it 5 up years which is always followed by 3 lean ones.
It's not the fine itself but putting some teeth to scare people to comply. Basic government trick.
The simple fact is that the renter - if willing and able to save his money - can buy a house outright in half the time that a conventional buyer can pay off a mortgage"
Does Patrick even have any reason's that jive with reality. Here is one that ruined Jason.
worth reminding based on Jason's situation
worth reminding based on Jason's situation.
reminds me of Jason's situation and why the ghetto calculator is useless.
" I waited for FUCKING YEARS and NOW I AM LOSING EVERYTHING – HOW IS THIS POSSIBLE!?!?!?!"
You mean to tell me that Patrick was wrong that If I save all that money from rent, I would be able to buy the house in cash and come out way ahead? Patrick is a fine example that strategy is disastrous and burn that buy/rent calculator as it's a buy in the ghetto calculator.
low new home sales is bullish for housing price.
but now I want to focus on SF tech companies.
and you will get crickets.
I've spent a lot of time since 2009 to tell the forum to throw the rent buy calculator in the garbage bin. To think of it, the whole ten reasons are crap and useless, or worst just wealth killers.
It's obvious Patrick does not know the factors into buy/sell. He uses more in the software science, math science with hard logic. I view it more from a social and behavior science or applied. If you know the calculator, it's just an input bias and nothing more.
The fall of home ownership (from tight lending) is extremely bullish for the housing market
It's a damn if you do (housing price) and more damned if you don't market (rent are way up and trending up).
I remember all those on Patnet in 2009 blessed the buy/rent calculator with 1% rent increase. Looks pretty foolish to me.
The low transaction #'s is a reason to love the housing market. It is a bullish as hell indicator.
starts have been going up, as it should. Buying will lag the rental demand in timing. Don't make it more complicated than it is. Your 23 year old renter today will be a 30 year old buyer.
Demographics will give us housing "demand" for years to come. Rent price increase is bullish for housing price. For sales of supply home is way too low against demographic trends.
The endgame for biotech is always going to be acquired or Bankrupt. Intermune next.
It does not matter, there are hosts of new biotech companies that will pick it up. There were what 60-80 biotech IPO's in the last 12 months and at least 15-20 were SFBA.
If you feel like you have more money than you need to retire, or on the path for the 2.5M or so some money article put out recently.
I would just raise my lifestyle from say 5K a month to 7K a month instead of decision 1, 2, 3 and 4. It's more sustained as the excitement of a new X5 lasts 18 days. A lot of retirement stuff focuses on having money when you are old and frail. it is at the expense of your young years. Have a proper balance and spend some money before you are too old to use it. Why wait to buy a second home in Hawaii when you have wrinkles, just find time and go NOW. Hawaii is not all that great when you are 70
borrow from friends and family. That's how I did it at age 23 and that's how my kids will do it.
* the participation rate of 55+ is 40%. If that demographic increase due to sheer size, it brings down the overall #. duh.
* the participation rate of 25-54 is already stabilized. 83% to 81% is not a huge dropoff and that trend already stopped. 81% participation rate is frankly as high as any in the world.
* 20-24 year old are staying in school longer.
It just means start-ups have more leverage to raise more money at a better price than the past.
16-24 year olds are peaking.
These % are meaningless unless you strip out 16-20 and then 62+ (when many start taking early ss and say goodbye to work). something like 50% of men and women claim SS at age 62. 16-20 and 62+ probably have participation rate of less than 15%. If they grow in #'s it drives down total. is it too hard to break it down by four brackets 16-24, 25-44, 45 - 62 and 63+???
I suspect more than half is just demographics and the other half collects rent, rich, have sugar mommas or collects assistance. If you need a job and willing, its not that difficult in the USA. Probably the easiest in this world.