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  • On 28 Jul 2014 in 2015 Real Estate Prediction, SFace said:

    Diva24 says

    SFace says

    FortWayne says

    And it won't be long before this shatters, people can cannibalize their savings for so long. Once that runs out, I see instability coming. If one can't collect payment/rent, one can't stay in business very long.

    There's more rent money than ever. Rents are going up. Unless you mean to tell me another recession is coming in 2015 which based on where it stands now, little chance.

    A recession coming in 2015? It's already here

    288K jobs added in June?

  • On 28 Jul 2014 in 2015 Real Estate Prediction, SFace said:

    FortWayne says

    And it won't be long before this shatters, people can cannibalize their savings for so long. Once that runs out, I see instability coming. If one can't collect payment/rent, one can't stay in business very long.

    There's more rent money than ever. Rents are going up. Unless you mean to tell me another recession is coming in 2015 which based on where it stands now, little chance.

  • On 28 Jul 2014 in 2015 Real Estate Prediction, SFace said:

    2015 will be more like 2014 (as predicted), 2013 (as predicted) and 2012.

  • On 24 Jul 2014 in there you go...june existing home sales, SFace said:

    I shopped my rental in Hercules last Sep. During the process out of 10 applicants., 9 were planning to buy within 2 years. They are simply in credit jail or waiting for a little more cash.

    When my renters are buying, it is time to sell. That time is not now as the same 2005-2007 buyer will be buying in 2015-2017.

    I'm thinking 2017.

  • On 23 Jul 2014 in More than $100,000 increase. Are you kidding me ??, SFace said:

    Dsdf4 says

    Wait, are you really saying that if mortgage rates went to 8%, home prices would go up?

    the ride between 3.25% to 8% wil take housing to another level.

    Interest rates rise due to market condittions (slow inflation which is always house/rent inflation). by the time you see 8% interest, (which is not possible in the short/medium term anyway), housing price will be a lot higher than today. Then it will be a shitty time to buy.

    High interest rates are always the shittest time to buy. Think (cycle) peaks of 2008, 2000 and 1990. Prices zoomed in 2003-2008, 1997-2000 and again 1987-1990. If you are waiting for high interest rate, you will be devastated.

  • On 23 Jul 2014 in Doubled up on FB, SFace said:

    Goran_K says

    SFace says

    The way I see it, FB can be a 40% operating margin business. If you slap a 40-50% growth for the next three years, we're talking about a 15B dollar busines with operating profits of $6B or $4B net of tax.

    lol hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

    well, here it is about a year later

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/facebook-reports-second-quarter-2014-200500433.html

    46% operating margin and on track for 6B+ in pre-tax income. growth is 60%. I though it would take 3 years, but looks like FB will make 6B in 2014 not 2016

  • On 21 Jul 2014 in Is this thinking wrong ? Please advise, SFace said:

    leo9 says

    For ex - A house which was selling for $650k might be selling for $800k now because of interest rate. If the interest rate goes up then most likely home price will go down. If house prices goes down then the people who bought at higher price will see home equity shrinking or negative home equity. This will put lot of downward pressure.

    Is this thinking wrong ? Let assume all other factors are same - employment, flat wage, etc

    It's wrong because you are thinking textbook math vs. applied math.

    In the real world, wealth, supply, demand, yield, consumer confidence, alternatives, lending policies plays a larger role than just interest rates flux.

    plus who is to say fixed rate mortgage can't go down from here and we have low rates again next year and thereafter. The money has to go somewhere and it has nowhere to go other than equities, bonds and homes.

  • On 16 Jul 2014 in Torcana : 8% return assured for next 5 years ( iwog, SFAce, EMan -please comment, SFace said:

    E-man says

    With tax liens, you can earn 12%-18% depending on counties, but you have to put in some effort to learn this.

    Arizona counties are popular. There is no tax lien In CA :'-(

    basically you pay property tax for the counties and you take over ordering of the lien before bankers and mortgages. like the counties. eventually someone will have to pay the tax lien with interest and that is your payday.

    learned that from rich dad poor dad seminar in moscone. lol

    It's too much detail work, maybe someone (E-man?) should start a company and round out the assets (preferably SFH), inventory all the tax liens, buy them, manage them and split the interests/proceeds.

  • On 16 Jul 2014 in Torcana : 8% return assured for next 5 years ( iwog, SFAce, EMan -please comment, SFace said:

    E-man says

    I went to their website and saw a testimonial from an Aussie investor. In the response above, Colin said his investors are from Singapore.

    It's hard to cross-check reference that are 15- 20K miles away. Is there a testimonial with someone a hell of a lot closer to home say Brazil?

  • On 9 Jul 2014 in Paris to Tax Empty Offices at 20-40% of Rental Value; Price Crash On the Way, SFace said:

    The vacancy rate in Paris according to the link is 6-7% is already, brutally low. In the US, office vanancy is 14-15%. Even in San Francisco, it is 8%.

    The good thing about Paris is there is no competing city in France. but over time, you'll just see no cap-ex or even some office convert to housing and the office market in Paris over time will skyrocket like a mofo due to shrinking supply. Do you know what a 5% vacancy, unemployment rate does, record appreciation. 0% will drive inflation unknown in the history of mankind.

    with no office space in the longer term, as in theory there is no vacancy due to a 40% tax, there is no hope to expand business. How will a company add 400K square feet in a market with none to offer unless you kick others out. These are incredibly stupid short sighted ideas.

    As a landlord, in the short term, all I have to do is rent existing space A existing and give out vacant space B for free until it is occupied so there is no vacancy to tax. All the business will hoard what is left.

    French business looking to expand will suffer like a mofo. The tenant will pay for it regardless, without supply brutally more and entrenched.

  • On 9 Jul 2014 in International buyers buying up U.S. houses, SFace said:

    CrazyMan says

    Non citizens should not be able to own real estate in the US.

    I'm all for immigration, but local citizens should not have to compete with world wide money for housing.

    Why this is allowed is beyond me.

    The reason is simple, higher price is better than lower price. (everything considered) That is why it is allowed pretty much everywhere in this green earth.

  • On 9 Jul 2014 in Redfin Agents Report Disconnect Between Buyers and Sellers, SFace said:

    John Bailo says

    I have also been applying what Louis CK said about yachts -- don't buy a yacht unless you can afford ten yachts. I can afford ten years of rent. I can't afford ten houses (yet).

    stupid logic. If you wait til you can afford to buy ten house to buy one, it's the quickest path to falling behind hopelessly.

  • On 8 Jul 2014 in U.S. real estate "recovery" driven by rich Chinese, SFace said:

    "Overseas buyers scooped up $92.2 billion of U.S. real estate last year, driven mainly by wealthy Chinese looking for a safe haven for their families and fortunes. A new report from the National Association of Realtors says sales activity from international buyers surged 35 percent in the 12 months that ended in March. While international buyers represent only 7 percent of total existing home sales nationally over the period, their buying is highly focused on high-end homes in Florida, California, Texas and Arizona. Chinese buyers were the largest foreign buyers measured by dollar volume, with sales jumping 72 percent over the 12 month period to $22 billion. Chinese buyers now account for 24 percent of all sales made to overseas buyers by dollar volume. Canada was second with $13.8 billion in deals, followed by the United Kingdom and India, each with $5.8 billion. Overseas buyers tend to pay all cash and prefer higher-end homes. Chinese buyers were the biggest spenders. The mean price they paid hit $590,826, and more than half of their purchases were in California, Washington and New York. "

    http://www.nbcnews.com/#/business/real-estate/rich-chinese-are-top-foreign-buyers-u-s-real-estate-n150796

  • On 8 Jul 2014 in Patrick's Travel Tips for Seattle and Vancouver, SFace said:

    The pacific northwest is definitely beautiful with fresh air and lots of green. Vancouver Island with a mountain and ocean backdrop is unique.

    If you look at the condos on the northwest side of the island, it is beautifully done and San Francisco copied a lot of it (top down windows 30 story condos on 1/4 blocks)

    Perhaps you can find time to hop on a ferry and head to Victoria Island.

  • On 7 Jul 2014 in LGI Starter Homes - Is this the future?, SFace said:

    John Bailo says

    bubblesitter says

    They have to keep the borrowing binge on to support the prices

    Normally I would be suspicious...but again...check the purchase price, and the payments.

    It seems very fair to me.

    For example:

    Austin, TX

    Pricepoint:$849/mo.

    Bedrooms:3

    Baths:2

    Stories:1

    Garage:2 carFLOORPLAN

    http://www.lgihomes.com/floorplan.cfm?id=4428C780-3048-78A5-1503E9AD735ADE1D

    Seriously, I'm not advertising this...I'm just amazed.

    Look at the size of these homes!

    It's at least 160- 175k. It's idiotic to just list the mortgage when the whole world thinks about the price.. Like most Texas homes, you get creamed in the property tax, especially for new areas, and the maintenance required of a larger home drenched in sun and a hoa for the pool, playground and landscaping. The permanent cost is simply huge for land that is worth nothing. It s pretty obvious this thing is far far far away from Austin right smack in nowhere land. Its subprime like a mofo and a huge sticker price for Texas at that.

    It's marketing to the dumb. These are places that are first to fall and last to rise.

  • On 7 Jul 2014 in My Realtor and I -- Whose Math Wins?, SFace said:

    You can bid whatever you want. I mean it's not like the real estate agent know what your goal is. and there are only three goals, 1) that house is mine what will it take, 2) I like it this much only and 3) or I want a deal only.

    Just understand that the seller determines whether your offer is good enough or not, not you. It has nothing to do with where the price was, but where the market is. You are contributing to the market, not the market. There is no math involved in real estate, it is just understanding/gougiing demand from yourself and options besides the target house. Buyer/seller gauge the same damn thing.

    Three years ago, A lot of posts on Patnet was saying bid 70%, 60 or even 50% of asking and let the seller come down to their price. There were literally 100's of lowball bids back then all posted here for enjoyment. Sounds like a great strategy except these are the very people that got destroyed and bitter now.

  • On 2 Jul 2014 in Americans wouldn't last a day without their smartphones, SFace said:

    I was teaching my four year old to bike. Pull out Youtube on balancing, took the baby wheels off and look here is what we are trying to do in visual detail. Voila, an hour later and balancing

    We were in Los Cabos swimming. I know how to breast stroke but not efficiently, voila pull out youtube and just improved the kick glide

    I was at Safeway near a friends house to buy some Ice Cream, the line was 5 deep. Pull out the damn phone to see what's a great place to eat nearby.

    It was time to go to bed, pulled out the damn phone to take a last peak at the email and to do the next day. Then off to Pandora for 10 mins, close my eyes.

    I am doing some refi paperworks, just scan driver license, loan info and whatsapp the agent. Another agent called and ask what is the mile on the car, took a picure and sent on viber.

    The only problem is my 4 and 6 year old wants a piece of the phone too.

    meanwhile the laptop is collecting dust. Untouched for two years. An ipad and Ipad mini both with 4G and active are untouched as well. The smartphone is really ten gadgets in one.

    It is a watch, Camera, video recorder, browers, navigation, cloud, music/video storage, encyclopedia, phone, instant mail, organizer, games, newspapers/books. And with the Amazon fire phone which is ridicolous stupid, it is shopping.

  • On 1 Jul 2014 in How to actually save more money, SFace said:

    swebb says

    Not everyone has the ability to turn on an extra $2k in income per month. Hell, not everyone even makes $2k per month.

    If that is the attitude then yes better to live without things. Frankly, I think that if you can spend all that time thinking of ways to save money or do nothing productive, you can exert that effort into something productive. and I am not talking overnight.

    Real life example may be working toward a promotion or getting some degree to go from trainee to associate. Sell insurance, whatever your field of expertise, use it as a free agent. If you are a manager, work for a director to senior director, etc. If the company is holding you back, find another. Teach Piano, Swimming, Karate, tutor math, teach kids to ride bike, golf, there are hundreds of services. If you can't do that, get a license and become a uber taxi driver, limo driver and become a private tour guide. Send them to napa and sell wines and work with the winery for a commission. Hell, you can buy wine at wholesale and find buyers in China for hard to find napa vintage in the east side of the world. Use ebay, Amazon, or even Alibaba. There are many ways to make money with planning, persistance and common sense.

    Just last weekend, I saw a 16 year old kid in the park folding balloons creatures for kids 3-5 olds. I asked him where he learned that and he said Youtube and some practice. He goes to the parks because kids have birthday parties and he gets the opportunity to get hired at $100 bucks an hour by auditioning his skills.

    I just presented two scenerios of saving money, one is by making more, one is by saving. I'll take the former as saving money only goes so far, making it is the far easier and funner path to wealth. If the thread is about how to save money, the #1, # 2 and #3 reason is to make more. Warren Buffet and Bill gates are rich not because they are cheap, they have it because they think about making money like madman in their early stage.

  • On 1 Jul 2014 in How to actually save more money, SFace said:

    Learned this from my father in law when I was 21/22. You save more money by making more. It is so true. Saving 1k bucks a month by cutting off basic fun things is a pain in the ass and frankly the stupid way to save. Making 2k is a lot easier and happier.

    I do agree with the point of a big hoise with 4 bathrooms, it is useless. I lived in both and location matters more than size, 75% of stuff you need for a big hoise are useless.

  • On 26 Jun 2014 in using line of credit to buy now, SFace said:

    thanks.

    I do not believe in out-of-state when the best investments in still in the backyard. the east bay, deep east bay or even the Sacramento Valley.

    I put in an application for 500K line yesterday with around P+1.25% with .50% discount so effectively 4% floating. 10 year draw 10 year repayment.

    Just get it ready just in case something happens between now and 2024.

  • On 26 Jun 2014 in Torcana : 8% return assured for next 5 years ( iwog, SFAce, EMan -please comment, SFace said:

    cloud15 says

    @E-Man here is the link

    http://www.torcana.com

    They have investments available for Florida, Carolina's and even uk. The product I shared on the top,is already secured by a 5 year lease with a local university and the condos are from 48K to 73K. If I move my Bay Area positions to here then I'm practically done . That's why I'm thinking what must be the catch.

    Iwog, SFAce ....please take a look.

    And why would I want to believe Murhpy and Shaw or pay them for what?

    The headnote is 8%, the devil is always in the details and based on what I understand how these things works, murphy and Shaw gets paid first and second leaving you with all the risk or let your capital gets exposed first and second and it sure as hell ain't guranteed. At worst, it has a potential to be a Bernie Madoff.

    I don't take it lightly sending tens of thousands to a non-financial instiution unless I am the GP and have control of bank accounts. If you do that route might as well just buy a REIT at least it has more public pressure, sec and audit scrutiny. There is none with Murhpy and Shaw.

    better to go with people you know and trust than unknown partnership driven by unknown partners with unknown cash and bank accounts.

  • On 25 Jun 2014 in Buy A House For $213,000 If You Can Because Prices Will Only Go Up From Here, SFace said:

    Heraclitusstudent says

    Second, the ecological (not geographical) argument is a pathetic thin veil hiding the most self-serving NIMBY mentality not to mention the ruthless willingness to extort new comers.

    The desire of building of massive amount of homes in the bay, wetland, golf courses, hillside is an IMBY mentalality not to mention ruthless willigness to screw current residents who value the bay, parks, hills and wetlands.

  • On 25 Jun 2014 in Everyone talking about making money. but nobody talks about their endgame, SFace said:

    There are a couple of features that makes "forever" ownership very viable.

    Prop 13. This is a 1977 thing and over the last 30 years, the prop 13 basis and market value basis is widening, espcially in prime areas.

    Prop 13 is the most important permanent cost and if your property tax base is low and in some instance signifcant, it keeps the property (prime) off the market forever.

    you make it worst by transfer which extends prop 13 to multiple generations.

    Income tax basis. So besides having virtually 0 property tax, you would be shitting on yourself for selling a property and pay income tax when it is as easy to avoid as newspaper salesman on the phone. Step up basis allows you to step up a property tax with nearly 0 basis to 1M-5M or so, wiping out millions in tax no matter how much your home appreciated. This is subject to estate tax which has an enormous exemption per person. You make it even more viable when the interest against the equity is historic low so the equity is easy to access and cheap and there are options. If you can avoid a million bucks or even as low as 250K in income tax permanaently, 95% of the people would.

    So not only can you do it once, you can do it twice if the death are staggered.

    Combined step-up basis with prop 13 and you have about 200 SFH (non-flip) for sale in a city of 850K. and if that is not proof that homes are off the market forever, I don't know what is.

  • On 25 Jun 2014 in Everyone talking about making money. but nobody talks about their endgame, SFace said:

    "Everyone is constantly talking about making money but nobody talks about their endgame. What's the deal"

    In the end, we are all dead. Meanwhile, If I remain healthy there are 50 years ahead of me and "money" means a whole lot before the end

    And I was just me, I wouldn't matter as I can live on nearly nothing but friendship. I have kids, spouse, etc so Money is triple the importance. Nothing wrong with leaving behind some money for the kids and let them enjoy their golden years.

  • On 24 Jun 2014 in Something Very Disturbing Is Happening In The California Housing Market, SFace said:

    Is this serious, proving a point with dots? 500 dots in an area which you show is home to approximately 10M people? Put that in $10M+ and the dots look all the same.

    If sales volume go down by 40% and 20% and the overall market is down by 10% or so, there is only three possibilities.

    Your 240K home last year became a 260K home thus it is only distubing for renters

    Your foreclsoure home last year is no longer there thus it is only disturbing for renters.

    There is no one buying the cheapest homes yet the market is up and there is the same pathetic record low inventory, that should especially disturb renters.

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