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  • On 26 Nov 2014 in Robots/AI future, we need a full blown welfare state, yup1 said:

    dodgerfanjohn says

    The worlds far more likely to look like free jack rather than Wall-E or the Capitol in Hunger Games.

    Idiocracy is more like it.

  • On 21 Nov 2014 in I'm liquidating all my stocks and going to cash, yup1 said:

    New Renter says

    No he based his purchases on the rents to carry costs which have proven to be quite lucrative. In addition his homes have appreciated considerably since then as have the rents. Moar money..

    Which historically does not happen in a deflationary environment. The central banks reflated and that is why the homes appreciated. Again horribly wrong thesis by Iwog but WTF moar money anyway...

  • On 21 Nov 2014 in I'm liquidating all my stocks and going to cash, yup1 said:

    errc says

    I think iwogs reasoning used to be hyperinflation because of currency debasement

    Which was completely and utterly wrong. He made investment decisions (buying massive housing stock) in the face of a hyperinflation hypothesis during what should have been and might still turn out to be DEFLATIONARY period. Now he pats himself on the back for a horribly wrong call that turned out to make him a crap ton of money due to central banks reflating a deflationary environment.

    That is why he continues to discredit central banks. If he admitted central banks have reflated a deflationary environment he would have to admit he made a bad call yet still made a killing. Tough for a narcissist to admit.

  • On 21 Nov 2014 in Paid effective $1.97 for Gas today, yup1 said:

    If he was Republican they would be saying his name right next to Ronald Reagan!

    Also

    Federal budget deficit reduced by 1 Trillion dollars

    S&P 500 was 770 when he took office 2052 now

    ACA is modeled from the Heritage foundation:

    http://healthcarereform.procon.org/sourcefiles/1989_assuring_affordable_health_care_for_all_americans.pdf

    Osama Bin Laden DEAD!

  • On 21 Nov 2014 in I'm liquidating all my stocks and going to cash, yup1 said:

    DOW futures up 112 on ECB QE to infinity and beyond. Iwog still will not admit FED ECB BOJ QE is driving the market to new all time highs. Iwog will also not admit that he made a bad call to liquidate "All my stocks"

    Scorecard Iwog pays 20% capital gains on all his liquidation, market gains 4% since he sold.......ouch!

    If he had bought back in on Oct 16 when Bullard of the Fed said this

    http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2014/10/16/bullard-says-fed-could-delay-planned-end-of-bond-buying-program/

    He would have a nice 10.5% profit......

    Iwog it is all about central bank largesse. Your failure to understand that most of your gains have not been due to your unique brilliance is becoming your downfall.

  • On 8 Nov 2014 in I'm liquidating all my stocks and going to cash, yup1 said:

    iwog says

    I moved all the money into two bond funds and both of them are flying.

    AAPL is up 6.74% since your all out, doubt your bond funds are flying like that.

    iwog says

    it becomes obvious that I screwed up.

    New all time highs means.....you screwed up.

  • On 6 Nov 2014 in Why the low Cg?, yup1 said:

    Entitlemented says

    That said, the City Counsel in Seattle has a two party system, Democrat and Socialist. Lets see how they like their 12 dollar McDonalds meals in a year or two.

    Australia pays $14.50/hour minimum wage. A Big Mac is $4.81. In the US a Big Mac is $4.80......

    Your $12 Big Mac is a conservative fantasy perpetuated to make you fearful of high prices when in reality it just equals lower profits for the owners. No one is going to pay $12 for a Big Mac, idiot.

  • On 31 Oct 2014 in Markets are still addicted to money printing, yup1 said:

    Bond vigilantes will not fight the fed.

  • On 31 Oct 2014 in I'm liquidating all my stocks and going to cash, yup1 said:

    Ironworker says

    Nobody knows, nobody when the true bottom or top is going to be. Ok, maybe only God and Iwog. I hope you can figure out my answer to your question

    Ironworker says

    What were you doing when everybody was running scared in February 2009 when Dow dipped bellow 7000? I was buying like crazy.

    Apparently you knew.....go figure

  • On 31 Oct 2014 in Student loaners can buy a house... if the boomers will sell them., yup1 said:

    Blackrock which bought up tons of homes wants to forgive federal student loans to blow another housing bubble when they own tens of thousands of home. Of course this is an awesome idea. The federal government can loose hundreds of billions of dollars and Blackrock can make tens of billions. Now lets create some financial instrument so at the same time they can short federal student loans.

  • On 31 Oct 2014 in I'm liquidating all my stocks and going to cash, yup1 said:

    Blurtman says

    Second leg up? Frankly, I thought that I would cash out at Dow 17,000, but stuck around.

    I wouldn't call it a second leg up just MOAR of the same. Central banks inflating assets leaving the rich much richer and the poor relatively much poorer, increasing wealth inequality.

    We had a lower low so things looked really good for iwog right up until the BOJ helped make a new higher high. Now he is in cash, has to pay capital gains taxes, and will eventually realize that what the world reserve banks are doing does matter. It will shatter his confidence because he believes that it has all been him. His choices have all been good because he is much smarter than the rest of us. There couldnt be some outside influence making the rich richer regardless of their choices as long as their choice was to invest, stocks, bonds, real estate.......

  • On 31 Oct 2014 in I'm liquidating all my stocks and going to cash, yup1 said:

    Nikkei 225 up 756 or 4.83%, and it has absolutely nothing to do with the BOJ, says iwog......

  • On 31 Oct 2014 in I'm liquidating all my stocks and going to cash, yup1 said:

    Ironworker says

    No really. I choose to not play the losers game. I let my money grow. I am not gready. And it's just breadcrumbs! People who play the markets, off course beside Iwog - I am a big fun, are just taking bread crumbs from the table. I make money somewhere else. It's a big world out there with a lot of opportunities.

    But I will sure as he'll sell around 2017 if the market takes of from here parabolicaly.

    So you had stocks when the market hit record highs in 2007, you rode that bitch down to a low of 666 on the S&P 500, and right before that in February 2009 you took your extra cash and bought? Really? Wouldn't it have been better to sell early on in the panic, say in 2007, 2008 and have had that much more ammo to buy at the bottom?

  • On 31 Oct 2014 in I'm liquidating all my stocks and going to cash, yup1 said:

    Ironworker says

    What were you doing when everybody was running scared in February 2009 when Dow dipped bellow 7000? I was buying like crazy.

    So when did you sell prior to your panic buying at the almost perfectly timed market bottom?

  • On 31 Oct 2014 in I'm liquidating all my stocks and going to cash, yup1 said:

    Now the talking heads are calling for Euro QE, Damn duck you are gonna get cooked!

  • On 31 Oct 2014 in I'm liquidating all my stocks and going to cash, yup1 said:

    BOJ QE 1, Duck 0

  • On 30 Oct 2014 in I'm liquidating all my stocks and going to cash, yup1 said:

    cloud15 says

    7% down already 13 more to go.

    Salute to the guru !!!

    LOL!

  • On 23 Oct 2014 in Desalinization: A permanent solution to CA water problem, yup1 said:

    New Renter says

    Oh come on - if a reactor can be designed and operated in a @#$% combat submarine a reactor can be designed to safely take a bit of ground shaking.

    I wonder how many combat nuclear powered submarines have been in actual combat? I am betting the first set of depth charges knocks a couple of control rods back in the core.....

  • On 23 Oct 2014 in Desalinization: A permanent solution to CA water problem, yup1 said:

    New Renter says

    yup1 says

    701 Miles long, last pumping plant lifts water 1926 ft.

    And recovers most of that energy on the other side. Plus its a nice flat valley most of the way. Gravity pushes the water most of the way to the Tehachepes. Your proposal travels along the Cascades. How many pumping stations will you need to get water from the Columbia to Shasta?

    I have no idea the number of pumping plants needed. I would assume the entire project net energy required would be whatever is required to move the volume of water desired 700+ miles and lift it net 800'. We tie into existing infrustructure and expand it where needed which would save on costs (California aqueduct, Shasta Dam) You are failing to realize this project would also get an increase in net energy out of Shasta.

    I am pretty sure it would require much less energy than any form of desalinization for the same volume of water.

  • On 23 Oct 2014 in Desalinization: A permanent solution to CA water problem, yup1 said:

    New Renter says

    I assume you are being snarky. Its about 500 miles from the Columbia to Lake Shasta with 800'+ overall elevation climb. Compare that to the Los Angeles aqueduct going from Owens lake at 3500' to LA at about sea level.

    The California Aqueduct.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_Aqueduct

    701 Miles long, last pumping plant lifts water 1926 ft.

    The Rogue river only flows 5 Million acre feet per year vs 192 Million for Columbia...

  • On 19 Oct 2014 in The implications of being right about stocks, yup1 said:

    Massive government intervention, including massive Federal Reserve intervention. All of the intervention helped your absolutely horrible call to buy housing in 2009 lead to you making a killing. /golfclap

    You got totally lucky and are so full of yourself that you rule out anything but your awesomeness. Iwog you are not that awesome. You made a shit call. You got totally lucky. Face the facts. You won but not due to your brilliance, more like blind luck.

  • On 19 Oct 2014 in The implications of being right about stocks, yup1 said:

    iwog says

    I was in the mortgage market prior to any QE or other drastic policy and I sat in a front row seat.

    Oh REALLY

    http://projects.propublica.org/bailout/main/timeline

    Summary
    2008
    March
    Mar 14Fed Backs Sale of Bear Stearns
    The Federal Reserve announces that it will provide $30 billion in financing to support JPMorgan Chase’s acquisition of Bear Stearns.

    July
    Jul 30Treasury Gets Authority to Rescue Fannie and Freddie
    President Bush signs the Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008, which authorizes funds for a government rescue of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

    September
    Sep 7Government Rescues Fannie and Freddie
    Fannie and Freddie are placed under the conservatorship of the Federal Housing Finance Agency. For each company, the current CEOs and board of directors are dismissed, and Treasury receives warrants for each representing 79.9 percent of the common stock. Under the terms of the rescue, the Treasury commits to invest up to $100 billion in each company to compensate for their losses.
    Sep 15Lehman Goes Under
    Lehman Brothers declares bankruptcy, accelerating the deterioration of the credit markets.
    Sep 15Bank of America Gobbles Up Merrill
    Bank of America announces it will buy Merrill Lynch.
    Sep 16First AIG Bailout
    With AIG collapsing, the Fed bails it out with access to an $85 billion credit line.
    Sep 20Paulson Pitches TARP
    Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson releases a three-page, $700 billion proposal to purchase troubled mortgage-related assets, called the Troubled Asset Relief Program.
    Sep 25WaMu Collapses
    Washington Mutual collapses and is acquired by JPMorgan Chase.
    Sep 29The House Rejects TARP
    The House votes down the administration's bailout proposal, which had been prepared in concert with congressional leaders.

    October
    8 bailouts: $115B
    Oct 1The Senate Passes TARP
    The Senate passes a revised version of the bill, stuffed with tax breaks.
    Oct 3The House Passes TARP
    The House passes the bill, and the president signs the $700 billion Emergency Economic Stabilization Act into law.
    Oct 8Second AIG Bailout
    The government restructures its bailout of AIG. The insurer gets access to $37.8 billion more in loans.
    Oct 14Paulson Rolls Out Bank Investments
    The Treasury Department announces that it will invest up to $250 billion in the nation's banks via the Capital Purchase Program, a subcomponent of the TARP, and billed as investments in "healthy banks." Paulson announced nine major banks signed on for a total of $125 billion in investments. (More about the program here.)
    Oct 3Wells Fargo Buys Wachovia
    Wachovia, rejecting a previous proposal with Citigroup, agreed to merge with Wells Fargo for $15.4 billion

    November
    46 bailouts: $90.3B
    Nov 10Third AIG Bailout
    The government restructures its bailout of AIG for the second time. Treasury invests $40 billion in AIG as part of the government’s now-$150 billion effort to keep AIG from collapsing.
    Nov 12Paulson Scraps Original Bailout Plan
    Paulson announces that he's scrapping the plan to purchase troubled assets. The capital investments in the banks proved to be a "more powerful" means of boosting the financial system, he said.
    Nov 14Freddie Mac Asks for $13.8 Billion
    Freddie Mac reports a net loss of $25.3 billion for the third quarter of 2008. To fill the hole of its losses, the Federal Housing Finance Agency requests $13.8 billion from the Treasury.
    Nov 23Citigroup Bailed Out
    The Treasury announces that it will invest $20 billion more in Citigroup; this is in addition to a $25 billion investment in October through the Capital Purchase Program. The government also agrees to use up to $5 billion to help Citi absorb losses from a $301 billion pool of assets.
    Nov 25Fed and Treasury Roll Out Program to Spur Lending (TALF)
    The Treasury and Fed announce the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF), a Fed program that will lend up to $200 billion to owners of highly rated asset-backed securities in order to spur consumer lending. Treasury puts up $20 billion to support the effort.

    December
    166 bailouts: $65.4B
    Dec 19Auto Bailout Announced
    The Treasury announces that it will make loans to General Motors and Chrysler to prevent bankruptcy.

    2009
    January
    150 bailouts: $43.3B
    Jan 15Senate Votes to Release Second Half of Bailout Funds
    Under the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act, Congress had the power to block the release of the second half of the $700 billion funding authorized by the bill. But after promises by the incoming administration about how it would spend the money, the Senate voted to allow access to the remaining $350 billion.
    Jan 16Bank of America Bailed Out
    The Treasury announces a deal with Bank of America similar to the Citi deal. It will invest $20 billion more in Bank of America; this is in addition to a $25 billion investment in October through the Capital Purchase Program. The government also agrees to help Bank of America absorb losses from a $118 billion pool of assets. That agreement, however, is never finalized.
    Jan 20Barack Obama Takes Office
    Obama is inaugurated as the 44th president.
    Jan 26Geithner Takes Office
    Timothy Geithner is sworn in as Secretary of the Treasury.

    February

    109 bailouts: $31.3B
    Feb 10Geithner Pitches New Bailout Plan
    Geithner rolls out the Financial Stability Plan. Geithner promises to perform "stress tests" on the nation's biggest banks to determine their health and the necessity of more government investments, announces that the government will form some sort of public-private partnership to buy troubled assets from the banks, says he'll commit an additional $100 billion to boost the TALF and promises the administration will soon introduce its foreclosure prevention plan.
    Feb 17Stimulus Bill Passes, Limiting Exec Bonuses
    President Obama signs the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, which includes a section limiting the bonuses of the highest earning executives at firms that received bailout money.
    Feb 18Rollout of Mortgage Rescue
    The administration announces its broad plan to prevent foreclosures and promote mortgage loan modifications. (More about the program here.)
    Feb 18Treasury Ups Limit for Fannie and Freddie to $200 Billion
    Geithner announces that the Treasury is increasing its funding commitment to both Fannie and Freddie from $100 billion to $200 billion.
    Feb 25Stress Tests Begin
    Bank regulators begin their stress tests of the nation’s 19 largest banks and promise that they'll be finished by the end of April at the latest. Treasury officials explain that the tests will be used to determine how much more money the banks need to survive a steep economic downturn.
    Feb 26Obama Administration Makes Room for $750 Billion More
    The administration's budget blueprint suggests that the Treasury Department might need as much as $750 billion more to stabilize the financial sector.
    Feb 26Fannie Mae Asks for $15.2 Billion
    Fannie Mae reports a $25.2 billion loss for the fourth quarter of 2008 and losses for all of 2008 totaling $58.7 billion. To fill the holes of its losses, the Federal Housing Finance Agency requests $15.2 billion from the Treasury.

    March
    68 bailouts: $77.8B
    Mar 2Fourth AIG Bailout
    The government restructures its bailout of AIG for the third time. Treasury says it might invest up to $30 billion more. Together, the Fed's and Treasury's commitments add up to $180 billion.
    Mar 3Fed Launches TALF
    The Fed and Treasury announce the launch of the TALF.
    Mar 4Administration Launches Homeowner Bailout
    The Treasury launches its plan to promote mortgage loan modifications and pledges to spend $75 billion on the effort.
    Mar 11Freddie Mac Asks for $30.8 Billion More
    Freddie Mac reports a $23.9 billion net loss for the fourth quarter of 2008 and net losses for 2008 totaling $50.1 billion. To fill the hole of its losses, the Federal Housing Finance Agency requests $30.8 billion from the Treasury, bringing the total bailout to $44.6 billion.
    Mar 15AIG Pays Out Bonuses to Execs
    AIG pays out $165 million in retention bonuses to executives who work in the business unit that was primarily responsible for sinking the company.
    Mar 16Treasury Announces Small Biz Program
    The Treasury announces a program to spur credit markets for small businesses by purchasing up to $15 billion in securities backed by Small Business Administration loans. The program never gets off the ground.
    Mar 19Treasury Announces Auto Parts Program
    The Treasury announces the Auto Supplier Support Program, a plan to provide up to $5 billion in financing to auto parts suppliers. (More about the program here.)
    Mar 23Treasury Announces Toxic Asset Program
    Treasury Secretary Geithner rolls out the administration's plan to use government capital and financing to team with private investors to buy up toxic assets. Between $75 billion to $100 billion will be dedicated to the effort. (More about the program here.)

  • On 19 Oct 2014 in The implications of being right about stocks, yup1 said:

    iwog says

    What the fuck does the fed have to do with that calculation?

    What does the Fed have to do with the super low rates that you financed for? What does the Fed have to do with reopening the credit markets? What the fuck does the Fed have to do with your real estate portfolio going up massively in value. They made credit available which would not have been available otherwise.

    We would have gone into massive deflation and your holdings would have fucking eaten you alive. Your carrying costs would have stayed at $1100 and your rents would have crashed. Deflation crushes asset prices, wages, rents. Go read about the great depression. I cannot believe that you are so ignorant. I think that you think you are the smartest fuck around but you believe this garbage. Iwog, You got bailed out by the fed, you did not make some fucking brilliant move. The fed fucking made you rich. Get over yourself.

    It appears that you are just a lucky SOB.

  • On 19 Oct 2014 in Desalinization: A permanent solution to CA water problem, yup1 said:

    Pipeline pumping project to transfer water from the Columbia river in Washington to Lake Shasta in California. Shasta dam could be raised the 200 feet that it was designed for and hold upwards of 14 million acre feet. Columbia river discharges an average of 192 Million acre feet of fresh water to the ocean every year. Problem solved!

  • On 19 Oct 2014 in The implications of being right about stocks, yup1 said:

    iwog says

    yup1 says

    If the Fed announces QE4 you will be wrong, if they do not you will be correct.

    What the fed does is totally irrelevant.

    Totally? You cannot truely believe that? If you do than you are just a lucky SOB who got rich off the fed. Buying housing in 2009 would have been financial suicide without "The Fed" and massive government intervention. Period. End of story.

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