comments by yup1

yup1   befriend   ignore   Sun, 21 Dec 2014, 7:19am PST   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 1

thunderlips11 says

The Ruble is already recovering.

The Ruble follows the price of oil in US dollars nothing more. Oil is down in US dollars the ruble is down. Oil goes back up the Ruble goes up. Russia keeps the same $3480 ruble per barrel of oil to keep a constant flow of funds to the government. Nothing more nothing less. Russia cannot and does not want to trade oil in Ruble because they cannot take 40% less for their oil and stay solvent.

yup1   befriend   ignore   Fri, 12 Dec 2014, 1:17pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 2

iwog says

yup1 says

So we can agree to disagree. I think the Fed has more influence than you do.

Then why don't you make a concrete prediction for once instead of waiting until things happen then saying "DA FED DID IT!!"

Ok fine. BTFD. The feds of the world are not going to allow this ship to sink.

yup1   befriend   ignore   Fri, 12 Dec 2014, 1:03pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 3

Maybe we will get falling prices and wages will stay flat........

yup1   befriend   ignore   Fri, 12 Dec 2014, 1:02pm PST   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 4

So we can agree to disagree. I think the Fed has more influence than you do.

yup1   befriend   ignore   Fri, 12 Dec 2014, 12:58pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 5

iwog says

I already addressed that but if you want to continue to be wantonly stupid, feel free.

I could not have identified gold as a bubble in 2009 and held inflationary beliefs. I would have said gold was fairly priced when it wasn't.

I was talking about housing not gold.............

yup1   befriend   ignore   Fri, 12 Dec 2014, 12:57pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 6

iwog says

I bought real estate in 2008 based on an inflationary view. When I switched, it didn't matter because I was getting $2000 rents on a $1000 house. I published those numbers back in 2009 but you and most others didn't believe them.

The Fed is/was irrelevant.

So the Fed doing all of this was irrelevant

http://www.levyinstitute.org/pubs/wp_698.pdf

yup1   befriend   ignore   Fri, 12 Dec 2014, 12:50pm PST   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 7

iwog says

How did I make so much money on the oil bubble? More luck?

I have no idea how much money you made on the oil bubble nor do I care. We are online in a forum discussing your liquidation of all your stocks. I am questioning your reasoning. I am not questioning the results. Do you not understand that? Your results speak for themselves. I find it interesting how you got your results while believing something entirely different was going to happen. Deflation...........

yup1   befriend   ignore   Fri, 12 Dec 2014, 12:46pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 8

iwog says

Sorry but anyone who insists *the Fed* did anything to create an oil bubble or any other bubble is misinformed.

There are many people that readily admit this that are much better investors than you.

yup1   befriend   ignore   Fri, 12 Dec 2014, 12:45pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 9

iwog says

2008-2012 based on rents and income flow. I ignored appreciation although it has been by far the biggest winner.

So you bought housing with a deflationary point of view but the biggest reason you did well was appreciation. Am I reading that correctly? Can anyone say Fed Bailout!

yup1   befriend   ignore   Fri, 12 Dec 2014, 12:43pm PST   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 10

iwog says

yup1 says

My account was deleted at my request due to some individuals on here wanting to take legal action not due to wanting to hide anything.

Then why don't you disclose that you had the investment sense of a pile of horse dung when it came to real estate back in 2009?

I have never claimed to have some great housing investment sense.

I wonder why you get so hostile when someone shows that just maybe you were wrong. It is interesting.

yup1   befriend   ignore   Fri, 12 Dec 2014, 12:37pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 11

iwog says

It was absolutely required that I change my view from inflationary to deflationary to correctly identify gold as a bubble in 2009.

And when did you buy all your housing stock?

yup1   befriend   ignore   Fri, 12 Dec 2014, 12:05pm PST   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 12

iwog says

Now you want to pretend it didn't happen? That it was all some conspiracy between me and everyone else involved including Patrick to install a fake thread falsely dated 2009?

I am not saying that any of your calls did not make you money. I am saying that you made bad calls based on the facts at the time. Your theory as to why something would happen, Gold going into a bubble when you had changed your world view to deflationary is just plain stupid. Buying assets when you think there is going to be inflation is smart, buying them when you think there is going to be deflation is stupid. When did you change your world view and when did you make your asset purchases? I think you will find that you took actions that did not agree with your world views yet you still made a ton of money. With that I think you ought to at least acknowledge that, perhaps, other things going on in the world (Fed bailouts) made your calls profitable.

yup1   befriend   ignore   Fri, 12 Dec 2014, 11:59am PST   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 13

iwog says

Yup was one of those CRASH CRASH CRASH guys back in 2009 and I'm not surprised he changed his identity. It's nothing I will ever do.

My account was deleted at my request due to some individuals on here wanting to take legal action not due to wanting to hide anything.

Yes you are correct I did believe that massive Deflation was coming. I did not think that the Fed in every developed country on the planet would bail out everything and prop up asset prices for the next decade. They did. At least I know why i was wrong. And you? You think you made a brilliant call. Narcissistic don't you think.

yup1   befriend   ignore   Fri, 12 Dec 2014, 11:51am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 14

iwog says

Until 2009 correct. From 2009 onward I was long gold for no other reason than I correctly identified it as a bubble.

ROFL really. You switched from hyperinflation to identifying a gold bubble that had not happened but you thought that the world was going to deflate? Really?

yup1   befriend   ignore   Sun, 7 Dec 2014, 12:59am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 15

It isn't even the worst drought in the last 50 years. 1976-1977 was a horrible water year. Norcal should get another 5-10 inches of foothill/mountain rain and feet of mountain snow this next week.

Ceffer says

This is why Governor Brown is mandating California to conquer Oregon and Washington and build massive pipelines diverting the Columbia River for filling swimming pools in SoCal.

Next, annex British Columbia.

Columbia river discharges 192 MILLION acre feet of water to the Pacific ocean on average every year. If we built the infrastructure we could pump less than 3% of that fresh water discharge headed to the ocean and fill Shasta Lake every single year (if needed) Total California water consumption for non agricultural users is less than 10 Million acre feet each year.

yup1   befriend   ignore   Wed, 26 Nov 2014, 1:51am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 16

dodgerfanjohn says

The worlds far more likely to look like free jack rather than Wall-E or the Capitol in Hunger Games.

Idiocracy is more like it.

yup1   befriend   ignore   Fri, 21 Nov 2014, 11:56am PST   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 17

New Renter says

No he based his purchases on the rents to carry costs which have proven to be quite lucrative. In addition his homes have appreciated considerably since then as have the rents. Moar money..

Which historically does not happen in a deflationary environment. The central banks reflated and that is why the homes appreciated. Again horribly wrong thesis by Iwog but WTF moar money anyway...

yup1   befriend   ignore   Fri, 21 Nov 2014, 11:05am PST   Share   Quote   Like (2)   Dislike (1)     Comment 18

errc says

I think iwogs reasoning used to be hyperinflation because of currency debasement

Which was completely and utterly wrong. He made investment decisions (buying massive housing stock) in the face of a hyperinflation hypothesis during what should have been and might still turn out to be DEFLATIONARY period. Now he pats himself on the back for a horribly wrong call that turned out to make him a crap ton of money due to central banks reflating a deflationary environment.

That is why he continues to discredit central banks. If he admitted central banks have reflated a deflationary environment he would have to admit he made a bad call yet still made a killing. Tough for a narcissist to admit.

yup1   befriend   ignore   Thu, 20 Nov 2014, 9:53pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 19

If he was Republican they would be saying his name right next to Ronald Reagan!

Also

Federal budget deficit reduced by 1 Trillion dollars

S&P 500 was 770 when he took office 2052 now

ACA is modeled from the Heritage foundation:

http://healthcarereform.procon.org/sourcefiles/1989_assuring_affordable_health_care_for_all_americans.pdf

Osama Bin Laden DEAD!

yup1   befriend   ignore   Thu, 20 Nov 2014, 8:09pm PST   Share   Quote   Like (3)   Dislike (1)     Comment 20

DOW futures up 112 on ECB QE to infinity and beyond. Iwog still will not admit FED ECB BOJ QE is driving the market to new all time highs. Iwog will also not admit that he made a bad call to liquidate "All my stocks"

Scorecard Iwog pays 20% capital gains on all his liquidation, market gains 4% since he sold.......ouch!

If he had bought back in on Oct 16 when Bullard of the Fed said this

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2014/10/16/bullard-says-fed-could-delay-planned-end-of-bond-buying-program/

He would have a nice 10.5% profit......

Iwog it is all about central bank largesse. Your failure to understand that most of your gains have not been due to your unique brilliance is becoming your downfall.

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