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  • On 21 Dec 2014 in Putin Has a Break-Down. Rambles Incoherently About Bears Eating Honey., yup1 said:

    thunderlips11 says

    The Ruble is already recovering.

    The Ruble follows the price of oil in US dollars nothing more. Oil is down in US dollars the ruble is down. Oil goes back up the Ruble goes up. Russia keeps the same $3480 ruble per barrel of oil to keep a constant flow of funds to the government. Nothing more nothing less. Russia cannot and does not want to trade oil in Ruble because they cannot take 40% less for their oil and stay solvent.

  • On 12 Dec 2014 in I'm liquidating all my stocks and going to cash, yup1 said:

    iwog says

    yup1 says

    So we can agree to disagree. I think the Fed has more influence than you do.

    Then why don't you make a concrete prediction for once instead of waiting until things happen then saying "DA FED DID IT!!"

    Ok fine. BTFD. The feds of the world are not going to allow this ship to sink.

  • On 12 Dec 2014 in In U.S., standard of living ratings improving, yup1 said:

    Maybe we will get falling prices and wages will stay flat........

  • On 12 Dec 2014 in I'm liquidating all my stocks and going to cash, yup1 said:

    So we can agree to disagree. I think the Fed has more influence than you do.

  • On 12 Dec 2014 in I'm liquidating all my stocks and going to cash, yup1 said:

    iwog says

    I already addressed that but if you want to continue to be wantonly stupid, feel free.

    I could not have identified gold as a bubble in 2009 and held inflationary beliefs. I would have said gold was fairly priced when it wasn't.

    I was talking about housing not gold.............

  • On 12 Dec 2014 in I'm liquidating all my stocks and going to cash, yup1 said:

    iwog says

    I bought real estate in 2008 based on an inflationary view. When I switched, it didn't matter because I was getting $2000 rents on a $1000 house. I published those numbers back in 2009 but you and most others didn't believe them.

    The Fed is/was irrelevant.

    So the Fed doing all of this was irrelevant

    http://www.levyinstitute.org/pubs/wp_698.pdf

  • On 12 Dec 2014 in I'm liquidating all my stocks and going to cash, yup1 said:

    iwog says

    How did I make so much money on the oil bubble? More luck?

    I have no idea how much money you made on the oil bubble nor do I care. We are online in a forum discussing your liquidation of all your stocks. I am questioning your reasoning. I am not questioning the results. Do you not understand that? Your results speak for themselves. I find it interesting how you got your results while believing something entirely different was going to happen. Deflation...........

  • On 12 Dec 2014 in I'm liquidating all my stocks and going to cash, yup1 said:

    iwog says

    Sorry but anyone who insists *the Fed* did anything to create an oil bubble or any other bubble is misinformed.

    There are many people that readily admit this that are much better investors than you.

  • On 12 Dec 2014 in I'm liquidating all my stocks and going to cash, yup1 said:

    iwog says

    2008-2012 based on rents and income flow. I ignored appreciation although it has been by far the biggest winner.

    So you bought housing with a deflationary point of view but the biggest reason you did well was appreciation. Am I reading that correctly? Can anyone say Fed Bailout!

  • On 12 Dec 2014 in I'm liquidating all my stocks and going to cash, yup1 said:

    iwog says

    yup1 says

    My account was deleted at my request due to some individuals on here wanting to take legal action not due to wanting to hide anything.

    Then why don't you disclose that you had the investment sense of a pile of horse dung when it came to real estate back in 2009?

    I have never claimed to have some great housing investment sense.

    I wonder why you get so hostile when someone shows that just maybe you were wrong. It is interesting.

  • On 12 Dec 2014 in I'm liquidating all my stocks and going to cash, yup1 said:

    iwog says

    It was absolutely required that I change my view from inflationary to deflationary to correctly identify gold as a bubble in 2009.

    And when did you buy all your housing stock?

  • On 12 Dec 2014 in I'm liquidating all my stocks and going to cash, yup1 said:

    iwog says

    Now you want to pretend it didn't happen? That it was all some conspiracy between me and everyone else involved including Patrick to install a fake thread falsely dated 2009?

    I am not saying that any of your calls did not make you money. I am saying that you made bad calls based on the facts at the time. Your theory as to why something would happen, Gold going into a bubble when you had changed your world view to deflationary is just plain stupid. Buying assets when you think there is going to be inflation is smart, buying them when you think there is going to be deflation is stupid. When did you change your world view and when did you make your asset purchases? I think you will find that you took actions that did not agree with your world views yet you still made a ton of money. With that I think you ought to at least acknowledge that, perhaps, other things going on in the world (Fed bailouts) made your calls profitable.

  • On 12 Dec 2014 in I'm liquidating all my stocks and going to cash, yup1 said:

    iwog says

    Yup was one of those CRASH CRASH CRASH guys back in 2009 and I'm not surprised he changed his identity. It's nothing I will ever do.

    My account was deleted at my request due to some individuals on here wanting to take legal action not due to wanting to hide anything.

    Yes you are correct I did believe that massive Deflation was coming. I did not think that the Fed in every developed country on the planet would bail out everything and prop up asset prices for the next decade. They did. At least I know why i was wrong. And you? You think you made a brilliant call. Narcissistic don't you think.

  • On 12 Dec 2014 in I'm liquidating all my stocks and going to cash, yup1 said:

    iwog says

    Until 2009 correct. From 2009 onward I was long gold for no other reason than I correctly identified it as a bubble.

    ROFL really. You switched from hyperinflation to identifying a gold bubble that had not happened but you thought that the world was going to deflate? Really?

  • On 7 Dec 2014 in California's drought may be worst in 1,200 years (1st story), yup1 said:

    It isn't even the worst drought in the last 50 years. 1976-1977 was a horrible water year. Norcal should get another 5-10 inches of foothill/mountain rain and feet of mountain snow this next week.

    Ceffer says

    This is why Governor Brown is mandating California to conquer Oregon and Washington and build massive pipelines diverting the Columbia River for filling swimming pools in SoCal.

    Next, annex British Columbia.

    Columbia river discharges 192 MILLION acre feet of water to the Pacific ocean on average every year. If we built the infrastructure we could pump less than 3% of that fresh water discharge headed to the ocean and fill Shasta Lake every single year (if needed) Total California water consumption for non agricultural users is less than 10 Million acre feet each year.

  • On 26 Nov 2014 in Robots/AI future, we need a full blown welfare state, yup1 said:

    dodgerfanjohn says

    The worlds far more likely to look like free jack rather than Wall-E or the Capitol in Hunger Games.

    Idiocracy is more like it.

  • On 21 Nov 2014 in I'm liquidating all my stocks and going to cash, yup1 said:

    New Renter says

    No he based his purchases on the rents to carry costs which have proven to be quite lucrative. In addition his homes have appreciated considerably since then as have the rents. Moar money..

    Which historically does not happen in a deflationary environment. The central banks reflated and that is why the homes appreciated. Again horribly wrong thesis by Iwog but WTF moar money anyway...

  • On 21 Nov 2014 in I'm liquidating all my stocks and going to cash, yup1 said:

    errc says

    I think iwogs reasoning used to be hyperinflation because of currency debasement

    Which was completely and utterly wrong. He made investment decisions (buying massive housing stock) in the face of a hyperinflation hypothesis during what should have been and might still turn out to be DEFLATIONARY period. Now he pats himself on the back for a horribly wrong call that turned out to make him a crap ton of money due to central banks reflating a deflationary environment.

    That is why he continues to discredit central banks. If he admitted central banks have reflated a deflationary environment he would have to admit he made a bad call yet still made a killing. Tough for a narcissist to admit.

  • On 21 Nov 2014 in Paid effective $1.97 for Gas today, yup1 said:

    If he was Republican they would be saying his name right next to Ronald Reagan!

    Also

    Federal budget deficit reduced by 1 Trillion dollars

    S&P 500 was 770 when he took office 2052 now

    ACA is modeled from the Heritage foundation:

    http://healthcarereform.procon.org/sourcefiles/1989_assuring_affordable_health_care_for_all_americans.pdf

    Osama Bin Laden DEAD!

  • On 21 Nov 2014 in I'm liquidating all my stocks and going to cash, yup1 said:

    DOW futures up 112 on ECB QE to infinity and beyond. Iwog still will not admit FED ECB BOJ QE is driving the market to new all time highs. Iwog will also not admit that he made a bad call to liquidate "All my stocks"

    Scorecard Iwog pays 20% capital gains on all his liquidation, market gains 4% since he sold.......ouch!

    If he had bought back in on Oct 16 when Bullard of the Fed said this

    http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2014/10/16/bullard-says-fed-could-delay-planned-end-of-bond-buying-program/

    He would have a nice 10.5% profit......

    Iwog it is all about central bank largesse. Your failure to understand that most of your gains have not been due to your unique brilliance is becoming your downfall.

  • On 8 Nov 2014 in I'm liquidating all my stocks and going to cash, yup1 said:

    iwog says

    I moved all the money into two bond funds and both of them are flying.

    AAPL is up 6.74% since your all out, doubt your bond funds are flying like that.

    iwog says

    it becomes obvious that I screwed up.

    New all time highs means.....you screwed up.

  • On 6 Nov 2014 in Why the low Cg?, yup1 said:

    Entitlemented says

    That said, the City Counsel in Seattle has a two party system, Democrat and Socialist. Lets see how they like their 12 dollar McDonalds meals in a year or two.

    Australia pays $14.50/hour minimum wage. A Big Mac is $4.81. In the US a Big Mac is $4.80......

    Your $12 Big Mac is a conservative fantasy perpetuated to make you fearful of high prices when in reality it just equals lower profits for the owners. No one is going to pay $12 for a Big Mac, idiot.

  • On 31 Oct 2014 in Markets are still addicted to money printing, yup1 said:

    Bond vigilantes will not fight the fed.

  • On 31 Oct 2014 in I'm liquidating all my stocks and going to cash, yup1 said:

    Ironworker says

    Nobody knows, nobody when the true bottom or top is going to be. Ok, maybe only God and Iwog. I hope you can figure out my answer to your question

    Ironworker says

    What were you doing when everybody was running scared in February 2009 when Dow dipped bellow 7000? I was buying like crazy.

    Apparently you knew.....go figure

  • On 31 Oct 2014 in Student loaners can buy a house... if the boomers will sell them., yup1 said:

    Blackrock which bought up tons of homes wants to forgive federal student loans to blow another housing bubble when they own tens of thousands of home. Of course this is an awesome idea. The federal government can loose hundreds of billions of dollars and Blackrock can make tens of billions. Now lets create some financial instrument so at the same time they can short federal student loans.

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