patrick.net

yeah.

The 21st century is going to be tons of wealth being created, but nobody with jobs able to buy any of it.

At least China will be seeing a demographic reversal:

shows their next generation will be ~50% the size of the current one.

I pity India, though.

I have been to China. It is amazing and apalling at the same time. The fantastic new infrastructure and new buildings are simply amazing. It is also amazing what you can do when 1. the government has about 1/2 the money 2. no money is spent on social welfare programs.
China has always used masses of cheap labor, once called "coolies" throughout centuries.
I know an American in his 90's who was in China after the USA defeated Japan. He mentioned how there were few machines and animals but everything moved by human power. Think rickshaws instead of horse pulled coaches and men pushing carts instead of trucks.
In China I saw the most amazing houses made of blocks of granite which seemed to have no source of power, water, or service of any kind. Can you even imagine how cold it was in the winter there? This was in what was once called Manchuria.
Fuel was bundles of sticks, there is no wood since the trees were cut down centuries ago.
In the beautiful modern cities there are armies of young women trying to find work at any job they can. Often they decide to become prostitutes and of course this is also an old Chinese custom. But, the number of them is amazing, although they don't strut around the streets like in Thailand. Things are much more discreet in China.
China must IMPORT: food, raw materials, energy, technology, expertise.
China does NOT have sufficient: arable land, good jobs, women (many more men than women in China), fresh water.
China has ZERO property rights. This is why there is so much corruption related to the development of numerous ghost cities that are empty.
China has HIGH levels of corruption.
The Chinese must feel very misunderstood. At the same time that 1000 million Chinese have barely enough to eat, and their military is so weak Israel could probably defeat China, they have not enough of basics in China to survive, and the USA sometimes gets riled up about them. I do agree that China cheats in trade with everyone, they're screwing anyone they can.
The Chinese government is doing what has always been done in China, the vast labor that is barely compensated is the economic engine that allows China to buy what it cannot produce enough of for its people.

Gentle Reader,
The last two posts brings me around to my basic question: Can we help get them out of these problems without causing a global catastrophe? Or is that cake baked?

Regards,
Roidy

P.S. I have a warm feeling about all of this. It isn't good.

We are helping them. We are playing patsy and sending them tons of our technology and management know how. We also are sending them tons of money.
Of course, the Chinese are great at turning victory into defeat and things there will remain essentially the same for a few more decades. Deep down the Chinese will poison their neighbor's baby to make a buck from the milk sale.
There won't be a global catastrophe because we will always be prepared to defend ourselves.
Our next president won't be bowing and kowtowing (a Chinese word) to the dictators of China.

We are helping them.

"The Capitalists will sell us the rope with which we will hang them." -- Vladimir Ilyich Lenin

We are playing patsy and sending them tons of our technology and management know how.

300 million US consumers. 1.3 billion Chinese consumers. Do the math.

We also are sending them tons of money.

$2.5T since 1995 directly, plus another trillion or more via Taiwan, HK, Japan, and Mexico.

Of course, the Chinese are great at turning victory into defeat and things there will remain essentially the same for a few more decades.

Complacent are we?

Deep down the Chinese will poison their neighbor's baby to make a buck from the milk sale.

Or maybe just racist.

There won't be a global catastrophe because we will always be prepared to defend ourselves.

From what?

Our next president won't be bowing and kowtowing (a Chinese word) to the dictators of China.

Our previous cowboy president never had a discouragin' word about China, either.

How come you conservative guys here are just wrong about absolutely everything all the time? I don't understand how you clowns function in everyday life.

I'd be willing to bet large sums of money that when the robots are building everything, life will be better for everyone. The cost of manufactured goods will trend towards the cost of raw materials.

Many humans will not work, and society will be expected to support them. It will take a few decades of adjustment, lots of riots, lots more protests, but eventually it'll be the norm.

Less than half of us will work, and more than half of our earnings will be taken as taxes.

China will be behind the US in this, but not by much.

Kevin says

Many humans will not work, and society will be expected to support them. It will take a few decades of adjustment, lots of riots, lots more protests, but eventually it'll be the norm.

There were no black people on The Jetsons.

But I agree that rising productivity need not be a crisis.

To adjust for it just requires redistributing wealth from the people who own the machines, or socializing them outright someway.

Bellingham Bill says

There were no black people on The Jetsons.

They also had tubes that violate the laws of physics and people who could breathe in space without special equipment.

But if you want to base your predictions of the future on that show, be my guest :)

You don't need to socialize the machines. Taxes will be just fine.

Doesn't sound so screwed to me, altho the empty cities are kinda creepy

http://www.businessinsider.com/pictures-chinese-ghost-cities-2010-12?slop=1#heres-chinas-most-famous-ghost-city-ordos-1

http://www.businessinsider.com/15-facts-about-china-that-will-blow-your-mind-2010-2#by-2025-china-will-build-ten-new-york-sized-cities-1

http://www.businessinsider.com/15-more-mindblowing-facts-about-china-economy-2010-4#

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three_gorges_dam

China is famous for diligent, cheap labor. It is still true. Confucian values are real there. On the other hand, in China anything goes, dog eat dog, anything to get ahead and make a profit is also the rule. I saw this on my business trip to China, which means I was not a tourist.
I don't think China will implode, but the myth that China is going to rule the world just ignores 1. History 2. knowledge of China 3. knowledge of Chinese people.
I feel a little sorry for them, the suffering throughout their history is extreme. They are still a rather poor country with 1000 million with nothing and no hope.
Without the vast amount of human labor paid almost peanuts, China would not be able to thrive today.
I am sure China will be OK in the future but I wouldn't want to be living there too long.

China's one child policy may actually result in their population becoming somewhat reasonable by 2100 or so, at which point the massive poverty problem can be dealt with.

Of course, then they're going to have a nasty demographic problem. What do you do when you have 300M workers and half a billion retirees?

India, on the other hand, is going to be stuck for a while. The poverty there makes China look downright wealthy.

Gentle Readers,
When I saw that Chinese woman doing by hand what we wouldn't even think of doing by hand, I immediately saw what would happen to them. There will not be jobs at any level for the rest of the 1 Billion. The Foxconn factory is turning to automation as we discuss this.

Computers are more and more capable of doing what people used to do. So, China's 1 Billion, India's 1 Billion, and Sub-Sahara's 1 Billion, are most of the people on the planet. They will need work, money, clean water, air, electricity, and more of this than we currently have.

Oh, and Moore's Law stipulates that processors double in capacity every 18 mos. We hope it continues. We hope it doesn't.

Oh shit!

Regards,
Roidy

Retirees don't actually consume much.

Per-capita health care costs in China are $265/person.

That's about 1/30th our cost.

Their baby boom is 300M people, but it's also 10-15 younger than ours.

Roidy says

We hope it continues. We hope it doesn't.

No, increasing productivity is always a net good.

Having too much wealth is never a problem.

Bellingham Bill says

Having too much wealth is never a problem.

Gentle Reader,
Of course you are entirely correct. What we are having is a concentration of wealth in the hands of a few. The sums are vast. What do we do? We will need a realignment of society. What is thought of as work will not be what we think of it now.

Now, for a short rant on Merkel and the "Euro Problem".

Are you ready boys and girls?

What the hell? Are they really going to flush the Euro like used asswipe? Don't they know their Euro-denominated investments, savings, accounts, debts, CASH! (Remember cash? How quaint.) will become worthless.

These shitheads are going to let the EuroUnion fail OR they will actually weld themselves in a political union. I fear that I will offend, but I must ask you to recall that Europe has been a battle ground for centuries. If they fall apart, who will be the next "Third Reich"? France? Ukraine? Russia? GERMANY????

Fuck all that. I do not want my sons to be involved in a Euro War. I was nervous enough about Iraq and Afghanistan.

These fart smellers already had a nice little war in the Balkans. They didn't want to take care of it themselves. We had to do that for them.

Hmmm, Ymmers. I smell a bullshit cake in the oven. It should be ready shortly.

This crap started with too much debt. Goddamnit. We still have too much debt. Fuck! Our banks have been marking to weirdo ever since the accounting standards have changed. ...And they are going to fail. Still.

Dickheads.

One more recession or even a slight slowdown will start another shit storm with us getting fisted. This time it will be worse. We will be treated with more of that silly shit we saw in the summer and fall of 08.

Well. Merkel-The-Jerkel-Handjobs-Half-Off and Mr. Sodomite Sarkozy will get it going by their fecklessness.

Regards,
Roidy

Roidy says

Moore's Law stipulates that processors double in capacity every 18 mos.

"The complexity for minimum component costs has in- creased at a rate of roughly a factor of two per year (see graph on next page). Certainly over the short term this rate can be expected to continue, if not to increase."

- from "Cramming more components onto integrated circuits", By Gordon E. Moore in Electronics, Volume 38, Number 8, April 19, 1965

Read Dr. Moore's paper, Intel has a link to it on their website. (link).

In the paper, in his own words, where he describes his observation, and makes his prediction that is now known as Moore's Law. One of the words that you will not read is "microprocessor". His observations, and his predictions, in his words in his own paper, were about cost reduction, not gate length nor half pitch nor lithography node nor wafer diameter nor clockspeed nor anything other else but cost.

Moore's Law is about cost reduction. The other stuff about Moore's Law is Cool-Aid.

There's lotsa different ways to achieve cost reduction. Playing one government against another for the privilege of having fab built in its jurisdiction is one way to achieve cost reduction. Getting access to cheap capital in a booming 1990's stock market is another. Outsourcing manufacturing to pure foundries in places like Taiwan and Communist China is another.

B.A.C.A.H. says

"The complexity for minimum component costs has in- creased at a rate of roughly a factor of two per year (see graph on next page). Certainly over the short term this rate can be expected to continue, if not to increase."

- from "Cramming more components onto integrated circuits", By Gordon E. Moore in Electronics, Volume 38, Number 8, April 19, 1965

Gentle Reader,
Note that Moore is stating this in terms of complexity as increasing for a minimized cost. This means that the electronics becomes more powerful for the same or even less cost. Anyway, the title of his paper" Cramming more components onto integrated circuits." clearly states his point. He is saying that the ICs will become more complex for the same or less cost. These go together.

Also, the simple reason one does not read 'microprocessor' is the fact that those were not invented yet. It would be another six years before that was accomplished by Intel. It was the 4004 to be exact. I actually worked on those and the 8088. After that it was the MC68000.

What is required is a translation of that paper into a more advanced technological environment that does include the electronics of our day: microprocessors, PICs, FPGAs, etc.etc.

So, I stand by my earlier assertion that processor power needs to double about every 18 mos.

I like red Kool-Aid, BTW.

Regards,
Roidy

Roidy,

All the technology ya need to keep the gig going is becoming ever more expensive.

Compared to 193/immersion, the cost of implimenting EUV lithography on a massive scale will be taking it to a hole'nuva level; akin to mass scale deployment of stealth bomber technology for the next generation of boeing or airbus passenger jets. (Not exactly the "dumb shrink scaling" that Moore alluded to in his paper which for decades has been a quick 'n dirty and clever approach to cost reduction).

Over the decades since Moore made his observation and prediction, sometimes when a new technology was introduced, it was profitless even when it got goin' on a mass scale, till the clever engineers would deploy the shrink to squeeze out the profit. But, new technology requires new capital infrastructure. Realization of Moore's Law up till now has been as much about Financial Engineering as it has been about Materials Engineering.

The assertion that microprocessors double capacity every 18 months because of "Moore's Law" is similar to 21st century preachers parsing and twisting words from a 17th century text to suit their agenda. That good ol' time religion.

Roidy says

What is required is a translation of that paper into a more advanced technological environment that does include the electronics of our day

That's what the Cool-Aid has made Moore's Law into, religion.

Moore's Law would be better reffered to as "Moore's observation".

Doubling the capacity of a microprocessor is hardly the only factor in technological development.

Kevin,
I been in the trenches of efforts to keep the gig going. It is funny, the further you are from the trenches, the more you drink the Cool Aid, till you're totally Hip and Cool and in Marketing or Real Estate or something like that. Folks in the trenches are worried about what they call the Red Bricks. The "scaling" gravy train has already reached the end of the line.

B.A.C.A.H. says

That's what the Cool-Aid has made Moore's Law into, religion.

Gentle Readers,
Moore's Law is not a religion. Perhaps I am required a greater precision in stating this than I was in my original post. The reason for a term such as "Moore's Law" is not to equate the advancement of electronic complexity with, say, Newton's Three Laws or Maxwell's Equations. This increasing complexity is NOT a foregone conclusion, but it is a required "shall" if I may.

If the human race does not continue to pour money into the needed research and basic investigation that is demanded to keep this going, then no increase in complexity at the same or less cost is possible. If that happens, then we will really start to collapse as a society. Economic progress will cease.

Moore's Law is not a physical law. It is a social law. It we do not find a way to continue the "scaling gravy train" as you so correctly put it, then we are done. If we find a way to accomplish the scaling we so desperately need, then we may still be done.

Maybe I can put "Moore's Law" it in a clearer context. We need technology and science. We need more and more of it. (I'm sorry. I cannot resist a good pun now and then.) We have 2.5 Billion people and counting who cannot turn a light switch and expect that light to work - if they have a light at all.

Again, this is why I have been saying that increasing processor power and speed are needed. It is a "shall" in my mind. This extends to all of science and technology. This is the essence of "Moore's Law" to me.

Yes, I know that the Marketing and Manager types irritate B.A.C.A.H and Kevin and why they are irritated. I have never had a Marketing class nor am I a Manager. We are on the same "path." I just look at this a little differently.

Regards,
Roidy

P.S. "Red Bricks?"

Roidy says

I stopped by the living room when the Family Members were watching "How It's Made." The subject was the manufacture of Corell Plates. No human had anything to do with the direct manufacture of these plates. All done by machine.

Yeah, but those are still made in USA (I think).

clambo says

In the beautiful modern cities there are armies of young women trying to find work at any job they can. Often they decide to become prostitutes

China must IMPORT: food, raw materials, energy, technology, expertise.
China does NOT have sufficient: arable land, good jobs, women (many more men than women in China), fresh water.

I'm guessing that these prostitutes are getting quite rich (by Chinese standards). Or at least the ones without pimps are.

P.S. "Red Bricks?"
From the Google I'm getting:
1. Interconnect delay
2. Power
BACAH, anything we're missing? My understanding is that the brick wall keeps getting moved due to innovations in process technology and semiconductor fabrication techniques. We're going vertical now...

Interconnect delay and power are performance milestones in the roadmap. Physical characteristics of the materials and the capabilities of the manufacturing equipment are deployed to achieve the milestones. The red bricks indicate no known manufacturing solutions for the different materials and equipments. Does not mean that it cannot be demonstrated in a laboratory, it refers to profitable manufacturing.

The ITRS updates the "status" of the technology development from time to time and shares its update on the web:
http://www.itrs.net/Links/2010ITRS/Home2010.htm

Roidy says

Kevin says

That's what the Cool-Aid has made Moore's Law into, religion.

Why on earth are you attributing this statement to me? I know how to spell Kool-Aid.

Also, you clearly know nothing about technology. Please stop now.

B.A.C.A.H. says

Does not mean that it cannot be demonstrated in a laboratory, it refers to profitable manufacturing.

Gentle Reader,
Exactly. Stuff that can be done under lab conditions are then broadcast as solutions or wonderful new products, 'cures', etc. usually don't end up as intended. Nanotechnology was going to revolutionize all sorts of stuff. Making a motor on an IC was a cute trick, but how useful? Don't get me wrong. We need to do this kind of stuff. I'm understand James Burke's point in his Connection series.

The diamond phase of carbon can be grown by chemical vapor deposition and MAY replace Si. Ok. It might. Still, I have not seen or heard about anyone rushing to make a commercial quad opamp out of this. I know of a lab that is developing a method to detect the process state of fluids or colloids continuously. Yep, uses lasers and regular old Si electronics. Get this: The basic science of this little item is over 70 years old and originally done in a colonial possession of Great Britain before WWII. It's a neat idea but does not use anything like cutting-edge.

I'm not forgetting MEMS. Literally billions of dollars have been poured into this technology, and MEMS is actually being used. I'm not sure on the ROI.

Don't stop pouring money into all of these things, just don't expect the results to be immediate.

Regards,
Roidy
P.S. China and India. Wow.

Roidy says

Unfortunately, the Chinese will have automation catch them. It caught us.

Yes automation will catch up the the Chinese, but there is one major difference between the China and America. Those legions of Chinese workers came from family farms in the countryside. In fact once a year they return to the family for the holidays and some do not return. Once automation catches on in China, most of these workers will return to the family farms, there will not be legions of unemployed factory workers wondering the streets in the cities. Most American's did not have family farms to return to when manufacturing became automated and the need for factory workers declined.

The Chinese are not stupid, and the political elite have a great deal of real power. There are tremendous imbalances in China, but that is to be expected by a rapidly growing country. The Chinese personality fits well with modern capitalism. They have a lot of creativity and "get up and go" when it comes to making money. The central governments conundrum is how to harness that energy without letting it get out of control. When China realizes that it is its own biggest market, it will have entered the modern age. It's not there yet.

grondeau says

When China realizes that it is its own biggest market, it will have entered the modern age. It's not there yet.

In reality there are two China's. One is the urban Chinese, with good earning potential and money to spend and other is villages and blighted urban neighborhoods with one room houses and no indoor plumbing. Out of a 1.4 billion population, 900 million peasants will never see the inside of a shopping mall, they are too poor.

https://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2005/05/26/listening_post/main697988.shtml

Roidy says

I stopped by the living room when the Family Members were watching "How It's Made." The subject was the manufacture of Corell Plates. No human had anything to do with the direct manufacture of these plates. All done by machine.

That's because the Corning Corelle plates you saw made were Made in USA and I think the producers of the show don't like to leave the country if they can avoid it (probably too expensive). I have them and the ones I bought in 1989 are now collector's items (to an extent) and all are still like new. I can vouch for their claim that they are break and chip resistant. That and they are very reasonably prices. I like it that they are light weight, they take up less space in your cabinet, and even though I can't match my 1989 pattern with new ones unless I pay too much on eBay for used ones, the new ones I can buy stack just fine with my old ones.

Kevin says

I'd be willing to bet large sums of money that when the robots are building everything, life will be better for everyone. The cost of manufactured goods will trend towards the cost of raw materials.

Many humans will not work, and society will be expected to support them. It will take a few decades of adjustment, lots of riots, lots more protests, but eventually it'll be the norm.

Less than half of us will work, and more than half of our earnings will be taken as taxes.

China will be behind the US in this, but not by much.

Either that or the rich will unleash a superbug on the human race and sell the antidote at a price that it will take the wealth of hundreds of average persons to purchase one dose. The wealthy will buy for everyone they care about. Some groups will band together to pick their finest to survive. Billions will die and the robots will mass grave their bodies.

The thing is, I see both our ideas as potential futures. I hope for yours, I lie awake at night fearing mine.

futuresmc says

The thing is, I see both our ideas as potential futures. I hope for yours, I lie awake at night fearing mine.

... or my children's future.

Regards,
Roidy

China doesn't have to be screwed. If they embraced real capitalism, instead of the quasi-capitalism hybrid they have now. Properly regulated, capitalism would provide them an economic boom on a scale the world has never seen before.

But we all know the Chinese are culturally incapable of working within a system based on the rule of law... So yeah.

Gentle Readers,
To paraphrase:

"But we all know the USGovt / WS / Financials are culturally incapable of working within a system based on the rule of law... So yeah."

Regards,
Roidy

Lots of China hate in this thread.

China is a geographical area the size of the USA and with a population 3-4 times as large. We can't write it off. A perpetually poor China is a powderkeg. We need to enrich China to stabilize Asia. We are helping China by selling them everything we have, and that's a good thing. China will eventually realize modest prosperity for its society, the stated goal of the CCP. In the short term this will hurt because world growth is being concentrated in China, but in the long run the Chinese must be brought into the fold of the great powers.

Africa is a geographical area more than twice the size of China and the U.S. combined, has a population of over a billion people, and yet the world has written off the entire continent.

Any claims about "can't ignore" "can't afford to write off" etc. regarding any non-bordering, non-hostile region is a big stretch; there are trade offs, but it's not really cut and dry.

China will never be included in the "fold of the great powers" until it has a real democracy and dramatically scales back state involvement in the economy (independent banks, energy companies, and telecommunications/media in particular. As long as the state owns these sectors, there is no chance of democratic rule). Aggregate wealth is only one component that defines the "great powers", and until the US, Germany, Japan, etc. can feel that China is "like us", the best you'll see is uneasy peace, not real cooperation.

India is probably closer to being accepted as an equal partner by rich nations than China is at this point.

Things can certainly change rapidly for China, though -- just look what happened with Japan.

If "great powers" feel that China is being ruled by the popular will of the Chinese people, that Chinese businesses are playing relatively fairly (you have to say "relative" here, because every country favors domestic companies to some extent), and that China isn't threatening them militarily, they'll certainly be welcomed.

The Place to Be in the 21st Century will be South America.

A few years ago a friend went to China as part of a business trip and brought home a CD of a new city. There was a highway and you could three or four miles down the road with huge, new apartment towers on either side.

It was impressive until you looked really close and realized there were no cars on the road and no people. How many of the apartments are filled? There was no way to tell.

I don't think China is that screwed. They are now beginning to understand and limit the capacity and use of their natural resources for export. They will probably be a blue water Navy in the next 20 years which will allow them to secure their natural resource interests in their area. The Chinese have a massive Cyber attack military that is very successful at stealing Foreign Government technologies and civilian technology. Hell, their secret services make the KGB look like a joke when they bring in families who train their children while in the US to become smart and successful only to steal Defense Technology (US Navy propulsion technology). I think the country is in the middle of its great industrial revolution and will catch up in a few decades thanks to the US consumer.

Hell, in 30 years San Francisco and California can expect the great Chinese Navy to make its port stops for liberty in your nearby cities. It is a strange thing to think about since the US Navy makes stops to port cities around the world; imagine if China was doing the same here in the US. Maybe we could get some of our money back when I set up my Chinese Navy friendly tourist stores....