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Low inventory showing the bottom? Nope, S&P shows 46 months of "Shadow"

By Goran_K following x   2012 May 14, 2:05am 37,961 views   114 comments   watch   sfw   quote     share    


http://www.dsnews.com/articles/shadow-inventory-update-46-months-to-clear-supply-of-distressed-homes-2012-05-14

It will take 46 months to clear the market’s supply of distressed homes, or the shadow inventory, according to estimates from Standard & Poor’s Rating Services based on first-quarter 2012 data.

The agency’s latest estimate came in one month shy of the liquidation timeline determined in the fourth quarter of 2011.

As we all know, the banks are trying their hardest to hold back the flood, but between 2011 and 2012, the amount of shadow inventory only dropped by ONE month. There's still nearly 4 years of supply out there! I'm guessing the banks will start allowing 3 years worth of squatting to prevent having to realize their losses, I should have bought in 2004, I would have stopped paying and saved nearly $200,000 in cash by squatting.

To put the shadows into perspective, S&P says this latest number, which is based on the original balances of the loans, represents slightly less than one-third of the outstanding non-agency residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) market in the United States.

#housing

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75   PockyClipsNow   ignore (0)   2012 May 16, 2:48am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag        

There is no doubt prices are going UP rapidly right now in desireable non ghetto, non ex urban areas.

My friend bought a short sale for 430k in january. Now same homes are selling (well a few of them) for 500k and now asking 550k. Its really nuts.

Remember we have a VERY VERY DIFFERENT environment from 2005/06 - we have 3% mortgages, we have (all permanent basicallly)
1. REITS,Hedgies,Small Time investors snapping up everything they can (who wants 1% on a CD? in 2005 it was like 7%)
2. Banks are taking 2-3 years to foreclose (massively reducing supply this is the shadow inventory)
3. Super low mortgage rates 3% range. Also HUD zero down and FHA 3.5% down payment fuels the fire.

You guys who voted for Obama got what you wanted he said before his election "We have to put a floor under house prices" and in fact they have. Enjoy!

76   rooemoore   ignore (1)   2012 May 16, 2:58am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

CL says

If there is such a shortage of supply, wouldn't that drive these prices up? Even irrationally?

Nice places priced right are moving quickly. The crap or stuff priced too high sits. We are at about 2002 -2003 prices.

77   rooemoore   ignore (1)   2012 May 16, 3:20am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Jerry says

rowemoore says

We are at about 2002 -2003 prices.

Only 13 years more to fall.

he says as he quietly buys investment property...

78   APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch   ignore (33)   2012 May 16, 3:51am   ↑ like (6)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

If the banks' accounting was even half straight, all the big ones would be toast.

Let's get with rational accounting again and take a long, satisfying piss on the face of a dead bank.

79   David9   ignore (0)   2012 May 16, 4:18am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Here's another article from Realty Trac (May 1, 2012) about the fake housing recovery and low inventory:

http://www.realtytrac.com/content/news-and-opinion/bank-owned-property-inventory-withheld-by-lenders--bank-owned-homes-for-sale-7176

80   freak80   ignore (4)   2012 May 16, 5:02am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

APOCALYPSEFUCK is Tony Manero says

If the banks' accounting was even half straight, all the big ones would be toast.
Let's get with rational accounting again and take a long, satisfying piss on the face of a dead bank.

Hey now, let's not get too crazy. We all know that America is about power, money, and propaganda. Truth is the enemy.

81   FortWayne   ignore (2)   2012 May 16, 6:37am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag        

wthrfrk80 says

APOCALYPSEFUCK is Tony Manero says

If the banks' accounting was even half straight, all the big ones would be toast.

Let's get with rational accounting again and take a long, satisfying piss on the face of a dead bank.

Hey now, let's not get too crazy. We all know that America is about power, money, and propaganda. Truth is the enemy.

Remember George?

"Bullshit is the glue that holds America together".

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