patrick.net

He is right on some things but has been wrong on timing these events quite often.

Edit: he is claiming 2012 will be when the next major blow up happens in that article. I don't know about that personally...only around 5 months left in the year. I think the US/EU/world will keep going sideways for a year or 2 more before something big happens. While its obvious that something has to give currently most governments are still able to engage in quite a bit of rule twisting and competitive devaluation. A major disruption in a government's ability to do either of those 2 things at all or effectively will likely be the next trigger for another Global Financial Crisis, or rather another major leg downwards in the current one depending on your POV.

His one major success was calling the top of the housing bubble fairly accurately. That he did so in a very public setting while getting razzed by the "news" team and NAR spokesmen gained him some notoriety too.

If a person is constantly calling for a crash, they will eventually be "right."

Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

To be fair though, I wouldn't be surprised if the EuroFiasco triggered another meltdown.

At some point there will be a giant economic crash, we all see it coming. Debt is growing, liabilities are growing, economy is sliding... it's not looking good long term.

Ron Paul was very right when he said we have to end the "welfare warfare state".

wthrfrk80 says

If a person is constantly calling for a crash, they will eventually be "right."

Except Peter Schiff isn't one of those crackpot forum trolls who is always calling for a crash, he's one of the most credible economist of the past decade as he was completely right about gold, and is one of the few individuals who actually called the 2000s housing crash leading up to the height of the real estate bubble when everyone was in "buy buy buy" mode.

He was wrong about interest rates rising, but that's only because no one could predict the suicidal ZIRP policy the FED eventually implemented when this crash was taking place. In a normal, unmolested economy, interest rates would rise.

Here he is in 2005 schooling the CEO of Mcgraw-Hill about the actual state of the economy. Actually his analysis still kind of holds true even today which shows how much growth has actually occurred in the economy the past 10 years:
http://www.youtube.com/embed/B035vl7u-hg

Here he is at the beginning of 2006 schooling a Harvard economist about the housing bubble:
http://www.youtube.com/embed/MIFGfgKHrwU

In 2006, he was already talking about the economy crashing hard, and the housing bubble when it was still a minority opinion, he even predicted it would last for many years as he schools a former Reagan economic adviser in this video:
http://www.youtube.com/embed/LfascZSTU4o

Plus, everything he's said in the article (QE making the economy sick, weak employment indicators, risk on treasury bonds and the dollar, etc) is based on solid fundamentals.

When it comes down to it, if you had listened to Peter Schiff in 2004-2006, you would have saved and made a lot of money.

wthrfrk80 says

If a person is constantly calling for a crash, they will eventually be "right."

Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

To be fair though, I wouldn't be surprised if the EuroFiasco triggered another meltdown.

Peter Schiff should follow me back and forth to the data center in Sunnyvale. It sure as hell doesn't look like a collapse is coming from what I see.

Goran_K says

dividend stocks, gold to protect yourself from inflation... this decade will be worse than the 70s or 80s.. ."

He was right about gold.... but for the wrong reason, not sure that gives him much credibility. I am still waiting for the hyper inflation he predicted 10 years ago.

rdm says

He was right about gold.... but for the wrong reason, not sure that gives him much credibility. I am still waiting for the hyper inflation he predicted 10 years ago.

It's not his fault that he couldn't predict that the U.S government would throw every single cent of tax payer money, and the FED printing press into its QE measures. Who could have done that? If you told that to someone in 2002, they might look for your tin foil hat, yet... here we are.

Also, you don't think the U.S is creating inflationary pressure right now by buying its down debt, therefore decreasing the value of the dollar which in turn makes commodities cheaper in foreign currency, which drives prices higher?

If not for the massive amounts of privately held debt creating deflationary pressure, we might actually have hyper inflation, instead of the "stagflation" we have currently.

He may not have predicted when the inflation would occur (no one is perfect), but the FED through QE measures is creating the seeds for the dooms day scenario he described back in 2002.

In fact, I personally think it's much worse than what he described back in 2002 because of how much weaker and less stable the financial institutions are now compared to back then.

*puts on tin foil hat*

Goran_K says

he couldn't predict that the U.S government would throw every single cent of tax payer money, and the FED printing press into its QE measures. Who could have done that?

True, which leads to the point, that economic predictions should always be taken with a "grain of salt." These guys are not true soothsayers merely economists full of ideas, guesses and not the least prejudices which color their predictions.

It's not possible to call a top or bottom exactly, except in hindsight.

Peter Schiff is another moron. 8 out of 10 times he is wrong.

rootvg says

Peter Schiff should follow me back and forth to the data center in Sunnyvale.

Well, I know Cisco just froze a lot ifs travel.

JodyChunder says

rootvg says

Peter Schiff should follow me back and forth to the data center in Sunnyvale.

Well, I know Cisco just froze a lot ifs travel.

Our travel has been semi frozen for years. You can't go anywhere without the CIO signing off on it.

Just some info on Schiff's investments and predictions:

Use this link provided by CL.

Below is Shedlock's list covering 12 Ways Schiff Was Wrong in 2008

* Wrong about hyperinflation
* Wrong about the dollar
* Wrong about commodities except for gold
* Wrong about foreign currencies except for the Yen
* Wrong about foreign equities
* Wrong in timing
* Wrong in risk management
* Wrong in buy and hold thesis
* Wrong on decoupling
* Wrong on China
* Wrong on US treasuries
* Wrong on interest rates, both foreign and domestic

rootvg says

Our travel has been semi frozen for years. You can't go anywhere without the CIO signing off on it.

Well they just froze a lot more of it. Cisco and some other jockeys got they tit in the wringer but are not gonna holler about it.

This link may work, TT
http://tinyurl.com/7j7dq5h

The list of things seem to reflect a libertarian's goggles!

CL says

This link may work, TT
http://tinyurl.com/7j7dq5h

Thanks. The other one works if you do a manual cut and paste of the full link. For some reason the clickable link stops at the "!"

APOCALYPSEFUCK is Shostakovich says

Hey, is cannibal anarchy all that hard to predict when face-eating incidents are hitting the papers every week?

I know a boy what et his dog down in Waco Texas. Dog was alive and all.

More to come!!!

dunnross says

December 2000: Alan Greenspan

Isn't Greenspan a Rand Acolyte? What did he do that would make you consider him Keynesian?

CL says

Isn't Greenspan a Rand Acolyte? What did he do that would make you consider him Keynesian?

That's the biggest deception if there ever was one. It's undeniable that both Greenspan and Bernanke completely betrayed everything Rand stood for. Even the Rand Institute president says so:

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/alan-greenspan-betrayed-ayn-rand-ruined-economy-says-124734929.html

APOCALYPSEFUCK is Shostakovich says

Greenspan is an Austrian School fucktard.

He needs to be fucked in the ass, beheaded and eaten by a starving neonazi who's done being told a 3/2 in Flint should be $350,000 and he can buy it and raise a family on a $4.45 an hour WalMart job - or just start a hedge fund.

APOCALYPSEFUCK is Shostakovich says

WOW! Did you take this picture?

Yes, he did. That's how he got the idea that they loved each other.

Goran_K says

what's the big deal in him predicting that real estate would collapse in 2002?

Since you made an NBA analogy upthread, I'll do the same. In 2004, Mark Cuban of the Dallas Mavs let Steve Nash leave his team because he didn't think he could play for a high level. The following year Steve Nash became the league's MVP and 8 years later is still playing elite basketball. If Steve Nash starts breaking down and playing poorly next year, can you really say that Mark Cuban was spot on in his prediction?

Obviously Bernanke has been wrong many times, and after reading the articles posted upthread, it seems like the only thing Schiff was correct about was gold. I mean timing is everything right? What's the point in calling it a bubble if you can't call the or bottom.

Goran_K since you're defending Schiff and go as far as calling him an oracle, what do you think of the article posted by tinytina. Seems pretty clear to me that's he's wrong at least as often as he's right.

http://tinyurl.com/7j7dq5h

tiny tina says

Thanks. The other one works if you do a manual cut and paste of the full link. For some reason the clickable link stops at the "!"

All those things about Peter Schiff are completely untrue. Peter runs a very respectable fund. Here is a link, where Peter defends his record:

http://www.youtube.com/embed/QG2wGggNP_c&feature=related

dunnross says

These guys have an agenda to convert all patrick members to house buyers

If they want to convert people to home buyers, they should help create jobs, and increase wages instead of spending time on Patrick.net dissing Peter Schiff. Help a brother out for crying out loud.

Goran_K says

If they want to convert people to home buyers, they should help create jobs, and increase wages instead of spending time on Patrick.net dissing Peter Schiff. Help a brother out for crying out loud.

Well, they don't just want to convert us to house buyers. They want to convert us to debt slaves. They would be better off telling the truth about prices still being too high. Then, prices will fall, and we will all be able to buy and get the economy rolling again.

Goran_K says

If they want to convert people to home buyers, they should help create jobs, and increase wages instead of spending time on Patrick.net dissing Peter Schiff.

These guys would diss anyone who didn't agree with their greedy agenda.

... yeah, basketball talk on Patrick.net I love it.

Here's why I used he Cuban/Nash analogy. Knowing that point guards usually start declining after the age of 30, Cuban was willing to give Nash a long term contract. He would not go past 4 years. The Suns gave Nash 6 years. Steve Nash outperformed Cuban's expectations (which had good basis) but Cuban cannot be called right if Nash finally starts declining now.

Similarly, Schiff may have had good evidence to support inflation/housing bubble/rising foreign currencies, but timing is everything, isn't it?

Schiff's obviously a smart guy, but if his investment portfolio struggled in recent years, is he an oracle? Maybe he'd be better of identifying himself as a futurist instead of an economic guru.

Isn't Peter Schiff the same guy that went on for 20 minutes in that video talking about how the SCOTUS decision on Obama Care doesn't make sense ?

(kidding - I know who Peter Schiff is - and he knows as well as anyone how hard it is to predict exactly how and when the shit hits the fan. We all know it has to at some point since this country is governed by idiots and propaganda)

Btw, he's been saying this for a while.

You never know Schiff could change his mind. This is from Wikipedia:

"In a May 2002 interview with Southland Today, Schiff predicted that the economic downturn triggered by the bursting of the dot-com stock market bubble, an event that he had also forecast well in advance[citation needed] would lead to a bear market likely to last "another 5 to 10 years."[35][36] Later that year, following a 30% decline in the Dow Jones, Schiff reversed his call, and became bullish on U.S. stocks in nominal terms."

JodyChunder says

I know a boy what et his dog down in Waco Texas. Dog was alive and all.

Was it at least a "wiener dog"?

dunnross says

Like I said, if you look at either food or gas, which is what people spend money on, it's even more.

CPI includes food and gas. So, including those, the CPI is exactly the same.

I sometimes get a little irritated when Patrick puts this guys posts on the cover page. They read/view like an infomercial of doom. Patrick usually doesn't get into commercial stuff. On the other hand, the discussion of Peter Schiff's predictions are interesting. I guess I should be irritated with the infomercial guy not Patrick.

LOL

Goran_K says

That's right, Peter "Oracle" Schiff.

I'll give the guy credit for gold, but other than that, what makes him special?

Pat.net readers: raise your hand if you recognized a housing bubble in 2002-2006. I'll bet you most if not all on here saw the bubble. Not sure why Schiff is anything special for such an obvious prediction.

If you look at his predictions overall, he's no better than a coin flip.

It's not that I disagree w/ Schiff but his problem is that he's destroyed his credibility. I wish he had taken a more tactful approach at getting his name and opinion out there. We need more people with his view spreading the message.

zesta says

but if his investment portfolio struggled in recent years

And really, let's be honest, 98% of them "struggled" in recent years. It's not like Schiff is some outlier.

Not that it matters, his ability to beat the S&P has nothing to do with him calling the housing crash earlier, more accurately than anyone else, and in the face of harsh criticism on national TV.

dunnross says

The dollar index went from a high of 88 to a low of 73, in 2010. But Schiff was talking about the purchasing power of the dollar, not it's index value.

I can't believe this even has to be cleared up. It's actually shocking.

tiny tina says

I'll give the guy credit for gold, but other than that, what makes him special?

Pat.net readers: raise your hand if you recognized a housing bubble in 2002-2006. I'll bet you most if not all on here saw the bubble. Not sure why Schiff is anything special for such an obvious prediction.

I didn't see anyone else on national TV at the time calling out Harvard Economist, and the former Chief Economic Adviser to Ronald Reagan about the inherent risk to the housing market because of under writing standards and deregulation.

It's easy to say "I saw the bubble coming from a mile away" in hindsight. In hindsight, everyone is a guru. I tend to think a lot of the people claiming "they knew it was coming" are full of shit. $14 Trillion dollars in lost wealth sort of backs up my point, and tends to weaken yours. A lot of people got caught with their asses hanging in the air right in the path of something you claim "they knew was coming."

Goran_K says

I didn't see anyone else on national TV at the time calling out Harvard Economist, and the former Chief Economic Adviser to Ronald Reagan about the inherent risk to the housing market because of under writing standards and deregulation.

It's easy to say "I saw the bubble coming from a mile away" in hindsight. In hindsight, everyone is a guru. I tend to think a lot of the people claiming "they knew it was coming" are full of shit. $14 Trillion dollars in lost wealth sort of backs up my point, and tends to weaken yours. A lot of people got caught with their asses hanging in the air right in the path of something you claim "they knew was coming."

Ummm...maybe you are new to this board, but you do know when and why patrick.net was started, right? There were plenty of people on here back then saying housing was in a bubble. I wasn't posting then, but I first came here because I couldn't believe what was going on with housing.

Just because lots of people lost their asses doesn't mean there weren't plenty of people who saw this coming. Are you implying you didn't see it coming? The proof is that some people on this board sold in 2006, and many of us didn't buy until the bubble burst. Obviously, some are still waiting. I guess we're all prognosticators. Schiff was just fortunate enough to get on TV. I still don't get why you only look at his 2 correct calls and ignore his 8 wrong calls.

Goran_K says

It's easy to say "I saw the bubble coming from a mile away" in hindsight.

Yes, they will be saying the same thing after the 2012 Fortress bubble bursts. They will completely forget about all this crap they are telling us right now about all this low inventory, and chinese billionaires and what not, and they will underplay the correct predictions of us, bears, just to cover their own asses.