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Why Romney is winning and why he will win


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2012 Jul 19, 5:18am   55,463 views  122 comments

by Tenpoundbass   ➕follow (7)   💰tip   ignore  

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/polls/226943-poll-romney-opens-up-big-lead-nationally

Mitt Romney has opened up 7 percent lead over President Obama nationally, according to the latest survey from conservative polling outlet Rasmussen.

Romney took 50 percent of the vote against Obama’s 43. It’s the first time Romney has hit 50 percent in the poll and is his largest lead over the president to date.

The disappointing jobs data released last week could be weighing the president down. Rasmussen found that only 38 percent of those polled said they approved of the president’s handling of the economy, versus 48 that disapproved.

Still, the poll could be an outlier, as most polls show a considerably tighter race. According to Gallup’s daily tracking poll, Romney holds only a 1 percent lead over Obama, while the president holds a one-point lead over Romney in the Real Clear Politics average of polls.

The RCP average includes Romney’s seven-point Rasmussen lead, as well as a few other potential outliers, including an Associated Press poll that shows Obama up by eight and a Reuters poll that shows Obama up by seven — both of which were released this week.

The Rasmussen daily tracking poll of 500 likely voters has a 3 percent margin of error.

Him draw bad card...

#politics

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1   🎂 Tenpoundbass   2012 Jul 19, 5:38am  

I think the momentum is from folks like HRHMedia dominating the "Social Networks" and "Forums" and "News Discussions" with Romney bashing, because they can't list any positive attributes of Obama's first term legacy.

And people don't want to hear "He created health care" or "It's a Start" it's more screwed up NOW, nobody gives a crap about what happens after 2014, we're all living now. And truth is Obamacare for now has made a bigger mess of a mess, and has placed a greater burden on Middleclass now, and hinders job growth now. That is the reality, all of the bitching doesn't muddy that dirty little fact.

Not every in America aspires to be on the Social dole, like a prison inmate waiting for a Baloney sandwich and Jello. The highlight of their day, so I'm told.

2   Honest Abe   2012 Jul 19, 5:52am  

This election isn't about Romneys success, its about obama's failure. ALL the attacks and "noise" about Romney are simply diversions to distract attention from the massive failure of the obama agenda.

America is far worse off for the working man (not the freeloaders) than when he took office. Unemployment, national debt, the American Dream, gas prices - everything is worse.

The only increases are: foreclosures, gas prices, number of unemployed, those on food stamps, indentured dependents. Liberal policies yield negative results...but it "feels" so good.

3   🎂 Tenpoundbass   2012 Jul 19, 6:01am  

Ruki says

I mean, Romney is the last candidate that most Republicans wanted and a virtual nobody to the rest of America

You forgot the Liberal Media, they wanted him to win the primaries, really, really, really, really, REALLY, BAD. I hope Romney wins, and for all of the Shit he very well may unleash on the American democratic system, and hardships he will placed on the already rocked by Obama poor and middle class...

Let this be a lesson for the Liberals...

Don't Mess with Democracy.

...and Texas
...and around with Jim

Those three things, you can mess around with every thing else...

Well except other women when you're married to hot headed Latin woman.

But almost every thing else.

When you Black out suitable Candidates you get Herman Cain as a forerunner,

When Herman Cain becomes forerunner, Michele Bachmann gets the spot light as the token Women.

When Michele Bachman becomes the Republican hopeful, Rick Perry Deep throats a Corn dog.

When Rick Perry deep throats a corn dog, Rick Sanatorium looks Smart.

When Rick Sanatorium looks smart, people believe in Newt Gingrich.
When people believe in Newt Gingrich, people believe anything is possible

When people believe anything is possible Mitt Romney wins the Primaries.

When Mitt Romney wins the Primaries, he beats Obama and becomes the president.

Don't make Rick Perry eat a corn dog.

4   Automan Empire   2012 Jul 19, 6:07am  

You forgot the Liberal Media
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Such as Fox and Clear Channel? Nice try.

5   Honest Abe   2012 Jul 19, 6:46am  

You're a business owner? But YOU didn't build that business - someone else did, right?

6   bdrasin   2012 Jul 19, 7:29am  

CaptainShuddup says

Well not according to Obama, how could you vote for someone that doesn't respect your hard work? Talk about defeating self interest.

Sure, if your whole thought process consists of right-wing sound bites. Obama didn't say anything like that and it doesn't take a genius to see.

7   🎂 Tenpoundbass   2012 Jul 19, 7:32am  

bdrasin says

right-wing sound bites. Obama didn't say anything like that and it doesn't take a genius to see.

Right wing SOUNDBITES!?

HRHMedia a Liberal schill that recently found his way to this board, quoted Obama saying that, no less than three times today, in various threads.

Libs hate it when their own shit bites them in the Ass.

8   🎂 Tenpoundbass   2012 Jul 19, 7:35am  

Yeah but by your own admission you've been relegated to slinging shacks for a living.

9   bdrasin   2012 Jul 19, 7:36am  

CaptainShuddup says

HRHMedia a Liberal schill that recently found his way to this board, quoted Obama saying that, no less than three times today, in various threads.

No they didn't.

10   bdrasin   2012 Jul 19, 7:44am  

Honest Abe says

bdrasin - look for yourself.

I know exactly what you are talking about; its just that its bullshit. Here's the whole quote:
"Somebody helped to create this unbelievable American system that allowed you to thrive. Somebody invested in roads and bridges - if you've got a business, you didn't build that, somebody else made that happen."

Any idiot can see that "that" in the sentence refers to "roads and bridges", not to the business itself. Duh!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=YKjPI6no5ng

Now that you have been corrected, you gonna drop this from your repertoire? Didn't think so. You probably also think that Al Gore claimed to have invented the Internet...

11   🎂 Tenpoundbass   2012 Jul 19, 7:47am  

bdrasin says

Any idiot can see that "that" in the sentence refers to "roads and bridges", not to the business itself. Duh!

Well only Jesus should write in Parables. Everyone else is taken for face value, ESPECIALLY Politicians.

12   bdrasin   2012 Jul 19, 7:54am  

CaptainShuddup says

bdrasin says

Any idiot can see that "that" in the sentence refers to "roads and bridges", not to the business itself. Duh!

Well only Jesus should write in Parables. Everyone else is taken for face value, ESPECIALLY Politicians.

Saying that a successful businessman didn't build the roads/bridges/infrastructure on which he depends isn't a parable, it's an observation. You might want to look up that word.

http://youtu.be/G2y8Sx4B2Sk

13   Honest Abe   2012 Jul 19, 7:58am  

bdrasin - that doesn't change anything. What he said was what he meant...if you got a business you didn't build that, someone else made that happen. Its all collective, liberal, commie hogwash.

14   bdrasin   2012 Jul 19, 8:00am  

Honest Abe says

bdrasin - that doesn't change anything. What he said was what he meant...if you got a business you didn't build that, someone else made that happen. Its all collective, liberal, commie hogwash.

Got it. If you built a business, it means that you also built all of the infrastructure which helped made your success possible, presumably through time travel. Anyone who doesn't believe that is a communist. Makes perfect sense.

15   marcus   2012 Jul 19, 8:25am  

If you think Romney will win you should open an account here:

http://tippie.uiowa.edu/iem/index.cfm

You can get a good deal. Here is the graph showing price history. Obama has been favored all along, but his chances have gone up since SCOTUS ruled on "Obamacare." Obama now looks the best he has looked since ROmney secured the nomination. Seriously open an account. It looks like Romney is close to .40 (worth $1.00 if Romney wins).

http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_Pres12_WTA.cfm

Money doesn't talk. It screams.

16   marcus   2012 Jul 19, 8:37am  

Also,...haha,....let's see what that graph looks like after the debates.

Really, and I do mean this as serious advice. If you want to bet on Romney, and get good odds. Open an IEM account, and buy one third of your position right after each debate.

But 1.5 to 1 odds you can get right now looks pretty good, if you want to believe the polls.

Invest 500, and get back 750 (plus your 500) if Romney wins.

17   marcus   2012 Jul 19, 9:21am  

Here I found a bigger "book" on the election.

http://sports.bovada.lv/sports-betting/political-props.jsp

They have it about the same or Obama only slightly less favored but presumably you could put on a big bet at these price.

In other words at a casino now you could bet 100 on Romney, and get back 140 (plus your 100), if Romney wins.

If you want to bet on Obama you have to bet 170, to get back 100 (plus your 170).

Why are those numbers different ? 140 versus 170 ? That's because of the book makers edge (profit). Split the difference and it's 155 (equivalent to about .39 on the IEM), even better than the current price on IEM.

If I didn't know better, I would think that Rasmussen might be trying to pull a Barclays Libor move and get people to bet on Romney. Just kidding (I put this line to help Thomas.wong understand the libor scandal).

What if the Casinos have taken too many bets globally with people betting on ROmney at these great odds ? It sure would relieve some of the pressure if Romney odds would improve at least for a while and they could lay off their risk with some cheaper bets on Obama. Then again, maybe the only reason odds are so good for Romney (for betting on Romney that is (odds against his winning)) is that too many people are betting on Obama.

What if it's the billionares hedging. If the rich benefit as much as some think with a Romney win, shouldn't they be placing huge bets on Obama, to hedge ? MAybe that's the reason Obama is so far ahead with the money. The billionaires hedge.

There's the reason for the BS polls. Billionaires are trying to swing "the market" to where they can put on their billionaires hedge bets at better prices.

Stupid money....or is it ?

18   thomaswong.1986   2012 Jul 19, 9:36am  

bdrasin says

Saying that a successful businessman didn't build the roads/bridges/infrastructure on which he depends isn't a parable, it's an observation. You might want to look up that word.

meanwhile further south down in the South Bay, it was the industries build by successful business and industry, which in turn created jobs and paid income taxes, federal state, sales and property and other tax which DID build the roads, infrastructure and hope for a better life fro many.

Else we would still be farm lands... no different than Morgan Hill and Gilroy!

We had the Ubber SF and East Bay created decades earlier than Santa Clara, but the govt mismanagement has left it a former shadow of itself. All the Big City govt wanted was more taxes and spending programs ... leaving a anti-business decaying economy!

The Govts in SCC learned to stay out of the way of industries.. and the pay off worked.

The stark difference between the Big Govt cities of SF-Oakland and the Growth Magnet of Santa Clara County.. is a good example of what can be done...

19   marcus   2012 Jul 19, 9:52am  

robertoaribas says

A country like Brazil, where if you aren't born into a wealthy family, you can never achieve anything.

I agree that's where the right wants to take us. Not that it's impossible for the truly gifted, but in the future we are headed toward, social mobility will be MUCH tougher. It will be much more difficult to even identify extremely gifted children, if they are poor.

We are already way down the list on social mobility compared to many countries, including a couple where a complete education is free.

20   bdrasin   2012 Jul 19, 9:57am  

thomaswong.1986 says

We had the Ubber SF and East Bay created decades earlier than Santa Clara, but the govt mismanagement has left it a former shadow of itself. All the Big City govt wanted was more taxes and spending programs ... leaving a anti-business decaying economy!

The Govts in SCC learned to stay out of the way of industries.. and the pay off worked.

The stark difference between the Big Govt cities of SF-Oakland and the Growth Magnet of Santa Clara County.. is a good example of what can be done...

OK, at least your making a real argument rather than pretending that Obama said that business owners didn't create their own businesses - which he did not, and its obvious that he did not. You would have to be a liar to claim that he did.

21   marcus   2012 Jul 19, 10:00am  

I exaggererated the price for Romney based on the graph. Here is the current "market."

http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Pres12_quotes.html

You would have to pay .431 if you put in a market order to buy Romney now. And who knows how many shares are offered at that price.

As I said, if you want to bet on Romney, open an account, and buy Romney right after each debate.

22   🎂 Tenpoundbass   2012 Jul 19, 11:26am  

Politicizing the roads on which commerce was built, when that's why there were built in the first place, is just pandering and grandstanding Bull Shit nothing else.

But claiming that successful people didn't build their business on their own, with out the help of roads, in which they somehow owe Obama some part of his Grand scheme. Is telling stories.

23   Buster   2012 Jul 19, 12:33pm  

CaptainShuddup says

Well only Jesus should write in Parables. Everyone else is taken for face value, ESPECIALLY Politicians.

Amen. Lord Romney and LDS Kingdom forever!

24   Honest Abe   2012 Jul 19, 12:34pm  

More like delusional. That straight A student didn't do it on his own, someone else made that happen.

25   monkframe   2012 Jul 19, 12:45pm  

I only wish there were more difference between these two candidates. Supreme Court picks, sure. Some rights for some long-underserved groups, maybe.

But in large part, the empire rolls on. Google "lily pad bases" if you don't believe it.

26   xrpb11a   2012 Jul 19, 1:44pm  

That's right. the tree chopper for paper....the BerryGatherer for ink...OfficeDepot for school desks...etc...etc...blah blah blah....
the little fucker would not have crawled out of his shit filled diapers iffen it wasn't for 3/4 of mankind...

Honest Abe says

More like delusional. That straight A student didn't do it on his own, someone else made that happen.

27   Bill Frank   2012 Jul 19, 3:24pm  

Love how some folks get all jazzed up about Obama vs. Romney, Repubs vs. Dems. It's all just a grand show for mass consumption with the ruling elite winning regardless of who wins the "election." Sorry, what you think is a choice is really a non-choice. American Democracy: RIP.

28   marcus   2012 Jul 19, 6:56pm  

CaptainShuddup says

But claiming that successful people didn't build their business on their own, with out the help of roads, in which they somehow owe Obama some part of his Grand scheme. Is telling stories.

Pathetic that you don't understand the point. Actually you must understand it.

There was a time when decent Americans were willing to pay their fair share of taxes. And the truth is that that message, which has been Elizabeth Warren's message too is a message that makes a lot of sense, and most moderate normal Americans (who haven't bought the propaganda) agree with it.

Wtf ? People want so much from the government and they aren't willing to pay for it.

And now they say the answer is privatizing schools and generally paying public workers less.

29   🎂 Tenpoundbass   2012 Jul 20, 12:05am  

marcus says

Pathetic that you don't understand the point.

NO You don't understand the insult that is and the slap in the face of every hard working son of a bitch that ever made something of them selves and a better future for their kids.

Marcus your parents are more responsible for your success, like your education, your career, and the values and ethics you have not Obama.
You should have greater self esteem, don't let the bastard get you down.

Fuck Elizabeth too, she can make a Tee Pee in her living room and play cow boy and Indians in her make believe fantasy world she lives in.
But she probably wouldn't follow through with that either.

30   bdrasin   2012 Jul 20, 12:29am  

CaptainShuddup says

NO You don't understand the insult that is and the slap in the face of every hard working son of a bitch that ever made something of them selves and a better future for their kids.

President Obama actually said

If you were successful, somebody along the line gave you some help. There was a great teacher somewhere in your life. Somebody helped to create this unbelievable American system that we have that allowed you to thrive. Somebody invested in roads and bridges. If you’ve got a business -- you didn’t build that. Somebody else made that happen. The Internet didn’t get invented on its own. Government research created the Internet so that all the companies could make money off the Internet.
The point is, is that when we succeed, we succeed because of our individual initiative, but also because we do things together.

How anyone can say this is an insult to anyone is totally beyond me. Its a brilliant clip from a psychological standpoint because it goes straight to the paranoid republican id ("he hates success!") But the whole quote makes it clear that this is not the case.

Whats even more galling is that Obama was clearly trying to show people how we have a common purpose and are to a great extent all in this together and need to help each other. And it was deceptively edited to sound like he was being divisive.

31   🎂 Tenpoundbass   2012 Jul 20, 12:52am  

Well let's just say Obama is no Fucking John Kennedy, I think we can put that misnomer to bed once and for all right now.
There was always only one way to interpret Kenedy's speeches.

Of course Obama meant it as the Rich and Successful owe HIM something.
That speech was in the height of the OWS movement. There's only one way to interpret it, and that's what he meant by it. If you want to spin it, and make excuses for his misspoken words, be my guest. But I'm not listening to you, you don't have a pen with the official presidential seal on it either.

32   🎂 Tenpoundbass   2012 Jul 20, 1:08am  

Every speech Obama does is to divide the country. His speeches always have an "Us against them" under tone and theme. He starts every speech with "The mess he inherited".

President Romney wont engage in such skulduggery.

33   marcus   2012 Jul 20, 4:14am  

CaptainShuddup says

Every speech Obama does is to divide the country. His speeches always have an "Us against them" under tone and theme.

Yeah, it's terrible the way he's playing his cards, and that he wants to be reelected, the way he talks truthfully about the differences between what people get with him versus Romney.

35   🎂 Tenpoundbass   2012 Jul 20, 4:57am  

Yeah well all I can say, "Thank God the majority of American's have been told to ignore what goes on in Washington" so they do.
They will be voting in November based on how their lives are effected by the policy at hand. Not by what the Geeks under the Freak show tent on Capitol hill are doing, or not doing as it were.

36   dublin hillz   2012 Jul 20, 7:22am  

CaptainShuddup says

Every speech Obama does is to divide the country. His speeches always have an "Us against them" under tone and theme. He starts every speech with "The mess he inherited".


President Romney wont engage in such skulduggery.

Yeah right, that "divide" exacerbated itself with Sarah Impaled's comments about "real americans." If that's not divisive, I don't know what is. At no point during any of Barack's speeches did I feel any divisiveness at all.

38   marcus   2012 Jul 20, 8:35am  

Honest Abe says

That straight A student didn't do it on his own, someone else made that happen.

I agree that the student is the one who earned their success.

But if the students was poor, thank goodness there were good public schools where his or her gifts could take root where he or she could get the support they deserve.

(yeah, yeah, I know...public schools aren't all good. True. All private schools aren't good either. It is very tough in some neighborhoods for a public school to work miracles. They take everyone that the private schools don't get. But even there, in those worst neighborhoods, a lot of children in unfortunate situations are given opportunities that they deserve and that they ( yes THEY) take advantage of, at least sometimes.

39   HEY YOU   2012 Jul 20, 5:36pm  

Damn! The trolls almost brought me down to their level made me respond.

40   Elwood P Dowd   2012 Jul 20, 9:46pm  

Amazing how a little bit of misdirection can send a discussion thread careening around like the (late) Ted Kennedy behind the wheel of a car.

On Thursday July 19, the good Captain posts a blog entry from May 11, citing it as "proof" that Romney is winning and will win

The source for this claim is from the Rasmussen organization, based upon their polling data. Only one problem: Rasmussen, as of July 20, now has Obama in the lead in the popular vote, based upon their, ummm, shall we say, slightly more recent polling data:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows President Obama attracting 47% of the vote, while Mitt Romney earns 46%. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and four percent (4%) more are undecided.

Indeed, since the information at that link changes daily, it is (until the next update) what you see when you follow the link provided at the blog entry to Rasmussen. Ciggy man Obama (wonder what his brand of choice is?) ahead. Holy Underwear dude trailing.

In any event, presuming Rasmussen as a reliable source, what we've seen is Holy Underwear dude dropping in the polls (by 4%) and Ciggy man Obama rising (by 4%). From May 11 to July 19. If the trend is your friend, it sure looks like Romney is losing ground and Obama is gaining it. And this, please note, is using nothing but the same source as the good Captain.

Inquiring minds are curious why a May blog entry is being posted on July 19th. Excessive sugar consumption, perhaps? An inability to read the calendar? Something else? I did accuse the Captain of "misdirection" at the start of my post. But perhaps that is unfair. I await an explanation of the three month disconnect with greatest curiosity. And if the Captain needs help with figuring which month follows which month, I will be happy to tutor him, free of charge.

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