patrick.net

winter is coming

I hope this is the bottom and that all the fence-sitters get out and frenzy to buy. That should lower rental demand, and I'll be back to negotiating rent decreases with my landlord.

Nobody can ever explain WHY its the bottom, we're all just so anxiously awaiting finally getting this rusty old truck out of the mud so we can start plodding down the road again. Tires just keep spinning.

In other news, the important news, that nobody ever talks about, the 10yrT hit another bottom today. ANOTHER record low as it breeched the 1.40 mark down to 1.39. This economy is like a worn out tire on that old truck, spinning in the mud. Its allowed to keep spinning, even with that gaping hole in it, so long as the fuddy duddies keep blowing more air into the valve stem together. Problem is, the hole is still there, and the fuddy duddies are growing tired of blowing, just to keep spinning to nowhere. Eventually, rates hit a bottom, and then the game is over,,,,,

Anecdotally, I sat down with a broker on fri to talk re-fi. Less then three weeks after locking in 3.75 with wfc, this local shop has me at 3.25. His words "no way rates can go any lower". In my head, I'm thinking, how many time has Joe Mortgage broker uttered those same words over the last four years?? I'm not in a real hurry, knowing that the only way to keep the whole thing from collapsing on itself, is to keep lowering rates. Eventually, the snake eats his entire tail,,,,and rates bottom. Then, KABLOOEEY

Yes rates are the big question mark.

Down since 1980 and still going down.

BUT there tons of room for rates to go down. Your 600k house at 3% mortgage could soon be a 1.2m house with 1.5% mortgage.

Mortgage brokers always want you to think rates 'will never be this low again' to maximize the fleece crop.

I would get an IO ARM loan now 5 or 7 year. If rates spike and payment goes up you simply pay it off (if you have the means) or you squat for a few years thus 'getting your dp back' from squating and let it foreclose. I see zero risk in an ARM yet people love the 30 year fixed option.

The comments in the article sum in up nicely.

It's nonsense.

I don't think rates need to go up to blow the whole thing up. Once they can't move any lower,,,GAME OVER

But you are correct, and we've talked about this before. Rates are relative. The long, slow, walk from 5% to 4% was a 20% drop. 20% drop from 1.4, is 1.12%

I'm wondering what happens, if anything, once there's nobody left to re-fi? If I pull the trigger on 30yr @3.25, what would it take for me to ever re-fi again? My TI is already north of 35% the monthly friggin payment! Interest rate only toys with the math so much. Imagine if the unimaginable, they did away with the preferential tax treatments,,,,,

errc says

In other news, the important news, that nobody ever talks about, the 10yrT hit another bottom today. ANOTHER record low as it breeched the 1.40 mark down to 1.39.

That's the result of too much money chasing too few investments. "Supply-Side Economics" has hit a brick wall. It's time for some "Demand-Side Economics."

Regex says

winter is coming

and then spring...

I'm just laughing at the fact they're calling Zillow bearish.

errc says

Nobody can ever explain WHY its the bottom

perhaps the public should better understand there are (or shouldnt) be bottoms or tops.... (how far up will it go)... ultimately prices over the long run fall back to the norm.

it should be a warning sign if anything else.. "variance analysis" anyone ?

Everyone else seemed to missed the signs and ingnored what Robert Shiller was saying for years, until it was too late.

"I'm just laughing at the fact they're calling Zillow bearish."

LMAO, yes that's a pretty stupid story.

The Professor says

Now that house prices are at truly affordable levels the banks plan is to slowly dribble the foreclosures in the system to investors who can then rent them out at double PITI.
The banks plan is to make the rich richer.
Now the first time buyers have to rent. The move up buyers are stuck underwater. The move down buyers have no one to sell to. The economy gets stuck with a mess.

You are right. Good timing to buy and be a landlord.

people still waiting for the bottom are getting ridiculous at this point.
I just called on a house that sold for $250k in 2010 it's now selling for $475k.

you guys missed the bottom.

robertoaribas says

when WAR says it is time to buy

lol - except he will NEVER say its time to buy. He's a permabear.

Even when prices have doubled from here, he'll still say that 1995 prices will return and that you are lying...and thats its because of government intervention only, a total bubble...

in essence, he is exactly the opposite of what he hates the most...realtors that say prices go nothing but up. In his book, prices only go down.

War says

Why buy when prices are falling?

Because interest rates are falling, and we only shop to a monthly payment. Fuck all to price tags and principal repayment, that old hat is for suckers! This is the new economy, buy rentals, cheerlead on massive market intervention, vote democrat, and get rich by extracting government insured economic rent from the poor suckers on their hamster wheels in their cages

You're just too effing stupid to participate in the graft yourself. You probably voted republican too, you jackass!

What you need is an American education in one of the colleges. Take out a fat loan and piss away five years of your life. Then at least you'll have that piece of paper that proves you're smarter then all the other dumb dumbs. And then you'll be ready to lever yourself to the hilt for some hyperinflated land with a shitshack ontop of it, and do what's right, and pay your fair share to the banks

toothfairy says

people still waiting for the bottom are getting ridiculous at this point.

I just called on a house that sold for $250k in 2010 it's now selling for $475k.

you guys missed the bottom.

Yeah it beyond stupid. Its like waiting for your etoys stock to bounce back. Bottom is in the past but we are still pretty much at rental parity so buying to live in is still a good deal.

War says

PockyClipsNow says

Its like waiting for your etoys stock to bounce back.

Yeah.. Sounds just like you underwater home-debtors.

DO NOT buy housing now. And NEVER trust realtards.

Never trust realtors but trust trolls like "War"...

listen to war, do not buy, he does not want unnecessary competition.

War says

We have enough inventory of new houses.

Yes, tons!