patrick.net

robertoaribas says

a thread dedicated to what one of the more notoriously clueless posters on here "said he heard was happening..."

So, Mr. Realtwhore. How do YOU explain a 20% drop in asking prices in the middle of a high season? And with all these multiple offers, low inventory, low interest rates, etc, etc, etc. That's some cognitive dissonance for you!

dunnross says

robertoaribas says

a thread dedicated to what one of the more notoriously clueless posters on here "said he heard was happening..."

So, Mr. Realtwhore. How do YOU explain a 20% drop in asking prices in the middle of a high season? And with all these multiple offers, low inventory, low interest rates, etc, etc, etc. That's some cognitive dissonance for you!

You latch onto listing prices over a very short timeframe in one area and think that supports your point? Really?

Juliet,

That is interesting.

What zip code or neighborhood or street were those properties on?

What kinds of properties were they?

Do you know any particulars of the "sellers"? (like, longtime residents getting ready to retire out the the sierra foothills, recent laid off workers, people getting ready to 'trade up' to another place, flippers/investors/landlords?

I hope so. AZ, inland empire etc is different. if a family is pulling in 30k, they can easily afford a 100k house and so it is going up. But in the bay area, it would be easier to find an unicorn's horn than to buy an affordable house-unless of course you consider West Oakland.

B.A.C.A.H. says

Juliet,

That is interesting.

What zip code or neighborhood or street were those properties on?

What kinds of properties were they?

Do you know any particulars of the "sellers"? (like, longtime residents getting ready to retire out the the sierra foothills, recent laid off workers, people getting ready to 'trade up' to another place, flippers/investors/landlords?

Los Gatos Mountains and Santa Cruz. The Santa Cruz seller lives in Oregon and since it's been in one name for so long (46 years) I assume it was inherited or a second home, but I don't know, just a guess since the guy lives in Oregon. The Los Gatos home was the one we had an offer in on. It had foundation work that needed to be done (there was some very strange attempts at fixing that problem) and it had a very dark layout that could have been fixed with some additional windows and skylights, but we only knew that the previous owners had done a lot of refinancing on it.

I hope this helps. (:

Juliet,

I see.

The Los Gatos house, if the K-12 are Los Gatos Schools, is inside of The Fortress Walls. Shoulda been snapped up by a wealthy immigrant (or a wealthy hipster) for access to the public K-12. Maybe it was too far outside of town for those kinds of buyers though.

B.A.C.A.H. says

The Los Gatos house, if the K-12 are Los Gatos Schools, is inside of The Fortress Walls. Shoulda been snapped up by a wealthy immigrant (or a wealthy hipster) for access to the public K-12. Maybe it was too far outside of town for those kinds of buyers though.

It was a little too Los Gatos hippie/marijuana farm Bear Creek road for a lot of buyers. I guess you know the area. The "Fortress Walls" cracked me up! (: Another place we put $390 in on, and they are now willing to except is on Bear Canyon...if you are interested? We are not going to invest in Bay Area real estate after what we've read here, but if you are interested I can give you the address. It has a freaky dirt road, but it's a good price for the area if that's where you wan to be.

dunnross says

robertoaribas says

a thread dedicated to what one of the more notoriously clueless posters on here "said he heard was happening..."

So, Mr. Realtwhore. How do YOU explain a 20% drop in asking prices in the middle of a high season? And with all these multiple offers, low inventory, low interest rates, etc, etc, etc. That's some cognitive dissonance for you!

It could be that all the high end properties got snapped up. A few low end properties is all that is left.
The graph does not show volume which is suspect to begin with.
The fact is property prices are skyrocketing and that is just the way it is.
Raw

hrhjuliet says

We are not going to invest in Bay Area real estate after what we've read here, but if you are interested I can give you the address. It has a freaky dirt road, but it's a good price for the area if that's where you wan to be.

juliet,

I am a local kid happily hiding out in East San Jose, cultivating chardonnays and zins in our backyard, biking to light rail / work with my blue collar neighbors.. to a tech department in "the Valley".
My high schooler is happy in an East San Jose high school taking AP classes and varsity sports.
And our total housing cost is less than my office partners pay just for the property tax.

Not interested.

Nice thread. Good arguments.

I've seen some of the same stuff myself. Earlier this year anything/everything was snatched up off the market/multiple offers, and now everything sits - and we're only in August. Really looking forward to the winter, to see which way this swings. Another leg down would be nice, but if not, no biggie.

Also seeing some re-listings in my old neighborhood - for homes that were priced extremely LOW to begin with - relisted at the same LOW price. So my impression is that the low inventory is artificial - because of underwater homeowners and banks holding it all back.

Just got a rent reduction - in no rush to buy at this point.

joshuatrio says

Also seeing some re-listings in my old neighborhood - for homes that were priced extremely LOW to begin with - relisted at the same LOW price.

I was outbid on a property in April by some one-percenter who bid $35,000 over list. Two weeks ago, it goes back on the market (I got a Redfin notification). I really would like to see how some of these pending short sales end up, because they represent a lot of supposedly "off market" inventory in my area.

Still renting a home in a gated community for nearly half the PITI to own it so I'm not in a rush either.

Goran_K says

Still renting a home in a gated community for nearly half the PITI to own it so I'm not in a rush either.

Same here. Gated community, in pretty nice shape for the area.

We'd pay about $1000/mo more if we were to buy. Not including maintenance..

Goran_K says

I was outbid on a property in April by some one-percenter who bid $35,000 over list. Two weeks ago, it goes back on the market (I got a Redfin notification). I really would like to see how some of these pending short sales end up, because they represent a lot of supposedly "off market" inventory in my area.

So if it is back on the market are you going to re-submit your offer?

In the past few months I've seen houses in the 400k range in Oakland go for 70k to 100k over asking. In each case, I thought the asking price was on the high side of reasonable to begin with. One place that sold for 70 or 80k over asking price also had at least 20k of pest work.

And then a week or two ago, I saw a 3 br in the Berkeley flatlands that listed for 499 sell for 598. Went pending after 14 days on the market, and closed in NINE days.

My impression is that many of you in these forums are in a higher income bracket in the Peninsula and South Bay, and can afford houses in the 600-800k range. These numbers might look like chump change to you, relatively speaking, and I don't begrudge you that. But I'm in a lower income bracket and was hoping to find a mid-range fixer in a half-decent Oakland neighborhood for 375 - 425. Right now that doesn't look like that's gonna pan out.

Oakland SFR inventory - in ALL price ranges - has been declining all year, and as of Aug 6 was down to a low of 355 houses (per Redfin).

Meanwhile, the number of off-market REOs is 3 to 5 times that (realtytrac's numbers have jumped up and down suddenly by as much as 50 percent, so I don't know what to believe).

There are almost 2,000 others in the foreclosure pipeline, about 800 of which are scheduled for auction, the rest in default (per realtytrac search today).

eastbay19 says

hoping to find a mid-range fixer in a half-decent Oakland neighborhood for 375 - 425. Right now that doesn't look like that's gonna pan out.

It's like that in most brackets. All anecdotal evidence suggests growing prices, high activity, and reduced bang per buck.

At least it was that way until recently. Perhaps things are changing, we'll see.

APOCALYPSEFUCK is Shostakovich says

We're still into New Paradigm phase.

Everyone expects 2007 pricing to come back and then 10x from there in a year or two.

Nobody really expects that.

People that can't buy, can't buy. And those who can are looking as we speak because everyone expects the market to go flat for a while and if up...slightly up. In any rate, it makes waiting not worth while because if you can buy the same house 2 years later for the same price you have gained nothing but thrown out the rent for 2 years. It also delays you paying off the mortgage. But most folks get that.

The worse thing you could possible do at this point in history is take out a home equity loan from your Palo Alto run down million dollar home and then invest it in social media junk securities. I'm sure this is happening. Reminds me of the Bre-X scandal. The greedy get rich quick followers take it right on the chin. Love it! BA real-estate is not that far away from having a Twiki page like Bre-X.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bre-X

Call it Crazy says

That's exactly what I am seeing on the East Coast.... houses that were pulled off, sat for 6 months, then re-listed at the price it was on previously.

As I drive through different neighborhoods to see what's available (decent neighborhoods, not crap areas), I am seeing the "shadow" houses almost equal the number of houses currently on the MLS....

That is truly scary!!!

Right on. The two markets I watch are primarily in the Midwest and on the East Coast. East Coast - nothing is selling as even the low tier homes are just sitting. Several family members of mine have been trying to unload their properties for almost two years - cutting the price little by little.

Since we are on the West Coast, and it seems to be a mixed bag of nuts out here, I'm content renting - especially with a rent cut. My rent for a 3/2.5 is the same as my mortgage back in Fort Worth. Not to mention, my salary is about double.

Rents seem to have risen in the Monterey area, while home prices have stagnated. Still way to high for me to get off of the fence... I've also heard rumors that the main employer in our area is looking at cutting around 50% of it's workforce.

SubOink says

People that can't buy, can't buy. And those who can are looking as we speak because everyone expects the market to go flat for a while and if up...slightly up. In any rate, it makes waiting not worth while because if you can buy the same house 2 years later for the same price you have gained nothing but thrown out the rent for 2 years. It also delays you paying off the mortgage. But most folks get that.

You think after all these years reading this site, people would eventually get it. Or one would hope. The old fearful realtor catch phrase of "Throwing away rent money" is still around today. Ugh. You throw away rent money just as much as you throw away mortgage interest, taxes, HOAs, insurance, maintenance, etc. In todays BA market, waiting two years before buying means I save over 50K or more verses buying the same house. I also get the advantage of making just one call to fix a water heater problem, a rain duct clog, etc. Life is golden! Buying sucks in the BA.

I've posted this before in the investment forum. We are about to see a lot of "naive" and inexperienced investors lose money. Many bought into housing recently buying too close to the market value making it impossible to flip or rent out for profit.

SubOink says

It also delays you paying off the mortgage. But most folks get that.

The first 2 yrs of a 30 yr mortage you pay down next to nothing on the principle. 3.1% to be exact. Considering you are paying 1.1% taxes each year, that alone give you 2.2%. Add in upkeep and you already just lost your principle reduction effort. Nice job smarty.

Make no mistake. If you buy in the BA instead of renting you are either betting that appreciation is going to happen, or you are okay with taking it on the chin financially. And so it was said. Amen

How about we wait 6-12 months and see what actually happens? As of right now, there are all sorts of arguments for bulls and bears. The market is anything but free, and with the economy about as under control as a Champagne colored Lexus RX300 in a Ranch 99 parking lot, it is anyone's guess what will actually happen.

How about we start a P.net betting pool? You get to put some money behind your positions on where the local RE market will go in 6 or 12 months.

Just so you know, it's 99 Ranch.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

. My savings rate is almost double by being a renter of the same house for comparisons

I wish I could say the same, LOL.

A 30 year fixed FHA loan at the FHA limit in my county has the following costs:

Fully amortized, all cash outlays less interest deduction: $2300/mo

Above less principal repayment: $1700/mo

Average TCO expense over 30 year paydown: $1150/mo.

I plan on being around for the next 30 years so the $1150/mo expense is the one I look at for rent vs. buy.

Yeah, rents are a little higher than $575, more like $1500.

I expect the nationwide fall & winter buying to be extremely bullish with new listings pending within minutes of hitting the market.
Buy now & avoid the rush! ROFL

RentingForHalfTheCost says

If you buy in the BA instead of renting you are either betting that appreciation is going to happen, or you are okay with taking it on the chin financially.

Or maybe you just need a place to live (wow, really, housing as shelter, not as investment vehicle?, what a novel idea!) and the rents are crazy high.

If buying (PITI) and renting are on par in terms of monthly costs AND you need a place to live...

Buying a house is not all about investing. For some of us, it is about finding a stable place to raise our families.

If all goes well (in escrow now), we'll have a 3/2 SFH in SF for $2150 month PITI with a 30 year fixed.

I haven't seen rents at that price for 14 years.

Yeah, I guess housing AND rents could crater in the city. But I'd be surprised if the future holds the ability to rent a 3 br house for under 2K a month.

At my age, with kids and dogs and cats, chasing down cheaper rentals and uprooting an entire household for the next 10 years is extremely unappealing.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Your tenants are not in the BA. They are in Concord, the armpit of the 680 corridor. I wouldn't buy if I was your tenant either. I rent a 1.2million dollar home in the BA for $3200. Run then numbers into the calculator without appreciation smarty.

I am assuming your landlord has his mortgage paid off and is only paying property tax which would be $15K a year or $1250 a month. So he wins by still generating a nice profit and you win if you are cool with paying that much in rent. Personally, I have never been in a place where total rent for everyone involved was over $1600 a month so paying $3200 in rent seems high to me.

dublin hillz says

Personally, I have never been in a place where total rent for everyone involved was over $1600 a month so paying $3200 in rent seems high to me.

Correct about the landlord. $3200 is high and I would like to pay lower, but on the flip side I have run the numbers and the monthly cost if I purchase would be over $6000 a month out of pocket. That includes the mortgage deduction. Each month I save an international flight for the family. Now is doesn't seem so high.

That then just highlights my original point (that some duck said I was dead wrong about). If you buy into these prices in the BA you are counting on appreciation or it doesn't make any sense financially.

tiny tina says

Just so you know, it's 99 Ranch.

Tina,

Interesting. We live only a couple of blocks from here, and we've always called it Ranch 99. Not sure which is the right name. :)

Well, the sign out front does sort of imply "99 Ranch" but that just doesn't have a smooth ring to it. So, Ranch 99 it is as far as I am concerned.

1sfrenter says

If all goes well (in escrow now), we'll have a 3/2 SFH in SF for $2150 month PITI with a 30 year fixed.

Congrats! Finally the house hunting is over. Enjoy your new pad. ;)

bmwman91 says

How about we wait 6-12 months and see what actually happens? As of right now, there are all sorts of arguments for bulls and bears. The market is anything but free, and with the economy about as under control as a Champagne colored Lexus RX300 in a Ranch 99 parking lot, it is anyone's guess what will actually happen.

How about we start a P.net betting pool? You get to put some money behind your positions on where the local RE market will go in 6 or 12 months.

Dude,

That Lexus quote is so spot on and funny it hurts.

You sir, are a Poet and a Scholar.

bmw91man says

and with the economy about as under control as a Champagne colored Lexus RX300 in a Ranch 99 parking lot

Very un-PC, but good for a laugh.

I love my 3bd, 1850 ft, double parlor, top floor, rent controlled flat, overlooking Dolores Park in San Francisco, at $1,500 a month! I will never buy in this town, ever. Why should I? I will never ever give 1 peso to a blood sucking, neighborhood smashing realturd. EVER! Repeal prop 13! Vacancy control now!

bmwman91 says

just about all of those points is definitely trollicious

CHICKALINGABAZOOKA!

lol

I see that you have converted to the Church of Duckhead.

In the last thread, I was arguing against you, Roberto, and Randy H, 3 people who have vested interest in pretending that the real estate market isn't in any trouble, I wouldn't call that a dog pile, more like a troll pile.

Also you're the one who immediately gets 2 to 3 dislikes on almost every comment you post. I think it's obvious what people think of your "analysis" on the forum. It's very trollish.

For instance, WhyPee pointed out that you misinterpreted the graph (both sale and list prices were falling), and you totally blew him off because he sunk your point about a Bay Area "boom". You tactic is to basically disregard data that doesn't support your agenda, and only consider data that supports your point, even if weakly so. Fortunately the majority of the forum has caught on.

coriacci1 says

I love my 3bd, 1850 ft, double parlor, top floor, rent controlled flat, overlooking Dolores Park in San Francisco, at $1,500 a month!

So jealous. If I had a nice rent-controlled place I wouldn't even consider buying. But with rent at $2800 month and no rent control (single family home) and kids and dogs, forget about it.

We're either buying in the Excelsior or bust.

robertoaribas says

No pretending going on on my part, Phoenix prices are rising and rising fast... you ignore all data that doesn't fit your narrative, that's all.

According to Redfin data, inventory is rising (as can be expected in a state with as much underwater owners as Arizona), and month-over-month prices are down. As I pointed out before, I think Phoenix has a lot in common with Vegas. Crash -> Speculation -> Trend downward towards bottom.

I think we may be exiting the speculation stage at the moment with prices flattening. But hey, when you're raking in $6,000 a month and thinking of retiring to an island in the Pacific, why stop the gravy train of positivity, right?

Goran_K says

In the last thread, I was arguing against you, Roberto, and Randy H, 3 people who have vested interest in pretending that the real estate market isn't in any trouble, I wouldn't call that a dog pile, more like a troll pile.

Also you're the one who immediately gets 2 to 3 dislikes on almost every comment you post. I think it's obvious what people think of your "analysis" on the forum. It's very trollish.

For instance, WhyPee pointed out that you misinterpreted the graph (both sale and list prices were falling), and you totally blew him off because he sunk your point about a Bay Area "boom". You tactic is to basically disregard data that doesn't support your agenda, and only consider data that supports your point, even if weakly so. Fortunately the majority of the forum has caught on.

You were just wrong in that thread. It was as simple as that, but you just couldn't admit it.