patrick.net

Interesting topic, but the article itself seems to be written by a high school student. Simplistic analysis, awkward prose and childlike conclusions.

Now I understand why no one ever comments on this guy's posts.

Mish says

Taking All Jobs?

Yes.

Mish says

Replace Women?

Not really, more like replacing masturbation.

Mish says

Robots to Rule the World?

Unfortunately it seems like the one job that the robots should be taking over they are not yet taking over.

What a glorious day it will be when all politicians are replaced by robots.

leoj707 says

Not really, more like replacing masturbation.

Headaches, mood swings, other built-in features may help to humanize it. Then, it may be programmed to different levels for different levels of players – from sex-starved Samantha of Sex and the City to a frigid beauty queen in Silicon Valley.

We the humans crave for challenge, artificially created or not. Success of Tamagotchi shows that.

Ruki says

Increases in technological growth and resultant productivity has been happening not linearly but geometrically. And we are heading towards the start point of the hockey graph where things really start to take off.

Basically, in another 20-30 years, if one's not financially independent, chances are, that there'll be few jobs left for anyone & thus, there'll be the *landed rich* and a semi-permanent welfare state for everyone else.

Here's a good essay on the whole topic of human work, being displaced in the decades ahead ...

http://www.marshallbrain.com/robotic-nation.htm

Ruki says

Uh, no. This is a serious issue. And your reaction only displays ignorance about it.

True or False: Have more jobs been lost to automation since 1990 than to outsourcing/offshoring during that time?

Yes, and what happens to the economy when 90% of doctors, lawyers, architects, writers, etc. can be replaced through automation. You know all those high paying jobs that can not be outsourced.

lenar says

Headaches, mood swings, other built-in features may help to humanize it. Then, it may be programmed to different levels for different levels of players – from sex-starved Samantha of Sex and the City to a frigid beauty queen in Silicon Valley.

Sounds like a hardcore version of Stepford.

When they can be a genuine predictable-yet-unpredictable companion (without any cheat codes to rush to the end of the Silicon Valley frigid beauty queen level) and push out babies, then the robot women may have passed beyond masturbation.

Ruki says

Uh, no. This is a serious issue. And your reaction only displays ignorance about it.

Where in my comment did I say that this was not a serious issue? I believe it is very serious and have spent a lot of time researching it. That is why I read the article. I merely opined that the author's treatment was amateurish.

In the not-so-distant future, you will be able to run full scale simulations directly in the human brain. Think holodeck without the holodeck. Or for the real nerds out there, think Better than Life. When that happens, sex and all other forms of recreation will become obsolete. Even the ugliest, dumbest, least charismatic loser like Cloud will be able to have endless sex with supermodels. Provided, of course, you can pay the royalties for the "intellectual property".

Notice a pattern? The chance of 10% of the US population doing manufacturing in the future is the same as the chance of 10% of the US population doing farming. And the result would be just as bad.

We don't need to bring manufacturing jobs back any more than we need to bring farming jobs back. We need to develop 21st century industries like IT, biotech, nanotech, materials engineering, etc.

Dan, I wish I could like that post twice. It hurts my brain when I hear people rail against outsourcing of manufacturing jobs, and how the solution is to bring them back home. Right. Our problem is we don't have enough people standing around watching machines work for 60 hours of every week of their lives, for 20+$ an hour.

Technological advances are a good thing.

Mish says

Robots to Rule the World? Taking All Jobs? Replace Women?

Can the robots be programmed not to bitch all the time?

errc says

Dan, I wish I could like that post twice. It hurts my brain when I hear people rail against outsourcing of manufacturing jobs, and how the solution is to bring them back home. Right. Our problem is we don't have enough people standing around watching machines work for 60 hours of every week of their lives, for 20+$ an hour.

Technological advances are a good thing.

What do you suggest we do with people whose IQ is not sufficient for these high technology future jobs? Seriously. That is probably over 80% of the global population.

Someday, if the so-called "singularity" occurs, this of course will no longer be a problem. Until then, expect the schism between the haves and have nots to grow. Wars, revolution, anarchy and general chaos will be by-products of this. Climate change will just make it more exciting.

Nothing new about fear of the machine. One word: Luddites.

Mish says

Replace Women?

LOL, I thought they've already replaced most American women with robots.

rooemoore says

What do you suggest we do with people whose IQ is not sufficient for these high technology future jobs? Seriously. That is probably over 80% of the global population.

And this is assuming that the high tech jobs of the future are not also being done by robots.

leoj707 says

rooemoore says

What do you suggest we do with people whose IQ is not sufficient for these high technology future jobs? Seriously. That is probably over 80% of the global population.

And this is assuming that the high tech jobs of the future are not also being done by robots.

True - many already are.

rooemoore says

What do you suggest we do with people whose IQ is not sufficient for these high technology future jobs? Seriously. That is probably over 80% of the global population.

Those people need to vote only for politicians who wholly embrace Georgism, and they need to start doing that right away.

When the robots have taken over all manual labor, all that will be left is intellectual labor. At that time humanity can live in one of two worlds. In the first world, the labor of robots and all other rent producing resources will benefit all mankind. The 80% who aren't intellectual powerhouses will enjoy an upper-middle class level of life with zero labor. I.e., getting all the benefits of a 100K income today without having to work. Those who are intellectual powerhouses and choose to labor, will enjoy an even higher level a material wealth and will direct humanity through the further development of technology.

In the second world, only a small group of extremely lazy, wealthy landlords will enjoy a carefree and effortless life while the other 99.9% wallow in abject poverty killing each other for the scraps thrown down by their wealthy overlords.

Which world would you rather live in? Georgism is necessary for the first.

errc says

Dan, I wish I could like that post twice. It hurts my brain when I hear people rail against outsourcing of manufacturing jobs, and how the solution is to bring them back home. Right. Our problem is we don't have enough people standing around watching machines work for 60 hours of every week of their lives, for 20+$ an hour.

Technological advances are a good thing.

have you ever seen a manufacturing plant.. Isay like Sun Micro, Intel, Apple or such?

I have, many times in my early years working in Silicon valley.. many who started in a same plants went off to college and moved their lives forward into better jobs/careers.

Its no wonder that some like the Woz who worked in mfg at a young age came up with the idea of a personal computer which he created on his own. Mfg shop floor has alot of possibilities for future entrepreneurs.

I dont expect a left wing Bostonian or New Yorkers to understand all this..

Yes, I've worked on a line before. I've also spent time locked in a people cage. Neither are desirable, but if I had to chose one of the two, id probably opt for prison

@rowemoore, "what to do with those people"? Let's double down on the Bill Clinton utopia, build more private prisons, and lock up all those "undesirable" poor, and stupid. The leftist wet dream!

Lots of people have speculated on what the future holds in store for average people. Possibly the most realistic (if pessimistic) is Neal Stevenson's vision in his novel "Snow Crash." We see an America where people have given up on Nationalism and have no allegiance to the federal government. The Feds still exist but have no real power. Instead the power vacuum is filled by fiefdoms and local city states which offer residents security. There is a vast split between haves and have nots, the latter of which is kept out of the former's gated communities by plenty of guards packing unreal amounts of heat. All shopping is done through the web which is now an interactive holographic experience. The Mafia is one of the more reputable and highly esteemed organizations recruiting young college grads to establish "outposts" in the crime infested slums of (pick your city).
Writing original code is about the only way people get paid.

My theory is that human value will be assigned by the quality of each person's creative output: the part of us that is most similar to God.

errc says

Yes, I've worked on a line before. I've also spent time locked in a people cage. Neither are desirable, but if I had to chose one of the two, id probably opt for prison

I'd choose prison for you too!

leoj707 says

What a glorious day it will be when all politicians are replaced by robots.

I was under the impression that they already had.

Without manufacturing, you lose your knowledge. Tech jobs can also be done anywhere in the world and offshoring has proved that it is a feasible model.

So we are only left with jobs that can't be offshored-until a time comes when we reach parity with India or China. Or some new invention that has to be done here comes about.

But on robots and automation, yes that is the perfect "employee" for a business.

Now a programmable robotic blow up doll-that would be something. Of course if the manufacture cuts cost and does not do the proper QA or there is a code malfunction, the robotic critter might chomp your jewels off instead of providing pleasure.

So robots are making all of the consumer goods. Eventually there will be programs that write the robots code (with some human help and oversight).

But how do all the consumers get paid ?

You can only have so many sales and advertising people. THere is of course entertainment, games, tech jobs (network admin, programmers etc.), and let's not forget lobbying and politics. Food production and of course all of the governemnt services.

How far off is this brave new world ?

I'm sure that even in the future, when in doubt, just lower taxes so that the job creators create more jobs and then the consumers can all be employed and happily consuming. It's a no brainer.

Zen says

leoj707 says

What a glorious day it will be when all politicians are replaced by robots.

I was under the impression that they already had.

No, it's the candidates that have been replaced by robots. The politicians are still either pond scum or sandbags.

Marx's nightmare.. when accumulation of capital is no longer limited by the impossibility of buy and sell labor capacity (in a post-slave society).

'The end of work (Jeremy Rifkin) is just the beginning. AI's will be the end..

Redistribution of wealth without work may be the solution. Communist like society (Down and Out in the Magic Kingdom - Cory Doctorow), might be the solution.

Mish says

Robots to Rule the World? Taking All Jobs? Replace Women?

The truth is that automatons are destined for one thing only - to become the new rent seeking 0.01%!

Why would machines waste time performing work? They're smarter than that. Designed to be perfect from the onset, programmed with the best humanity has to offer they don't need to work!

You think the current SV ice queens are cold and distant? Wait until they are ACTUALLY cold. Think the robber barons of today are ruthless? Machines are so much more calculating. Human rent seekers can't compete with that.

Moce over Zuckerberg, Rothschilds, and especially you Warren Buffet - the machines are coming for you.

I don't know if anyone saw it but there was an episode of the Terminator: Sarah Conner Chronicles where a T88 mistakenly traveled back to the 1920s. Its mission was to assassinate a politician in the 2000s and being a machine it could simply wait. To facilitate its mission it started a construction company and ended up treating and paying its workers all exactly the same because it valued good, efficient work over profit and didn't care about race.

I'm guessing that an artificial woman is much cheaper than a divorce, and complains less.

Ruki says

Seriously, every time we've transitioned beyond one phase people found employment in another, newer or suddenly economically viable one with all that labor made available to do it. Every time.

Doing what exactly? The technology of the past you're speaking of is nothing like what we have now and will have in the near future.

The only reason left to have human workers for companies will be to have customers. During the US heyday after WWII conservative businessmen had no problem paying and training workers well. They were their only customers. But globalization changed that. New markets and cheap labor.

Ruki says

In order to get workers in the factories, we had to free them up from the farms, for example.

Okay, but now where will they go?

Oh, Mish, how wrong thou art.

Robots will never, ever replace women. Robots are too rational.

You're welcome.

leoj707 says

What a glorious day it will be when all politicians are replaced by robots.

Just what do you think Romney is?

Nope, when robotics displace the current lot of actuaries, doctors, and any other sort of white collar skilled labor, there will be no future paying work.

Yes, robots will even program, modify, and repair other robots.

I intend on becoming rich before that day of reckoning ...

http://www.marshallbrain.com/robotic-nation.htm

Ruki says

Doctors will take longer but will experience the effects as more people get flown first class to have quadruple bypasses done in Thailand, put up in a 5 star with their own private nurse during recovery and then flown back on first class again -- while still saving hundreds of thousands of dollars compared to doing that procedure here. And then there are the medical cruise ships that will be parked right outside the 12 mile limit after the Thailand trips take off in patient popularity.

That's all well and good until the market corrects. Those Thai doctors may start demanding higher wages and perhaps the Thai government may impose a non-resident medical procedure tax (similar to a hotel tax). Then the MBA's get into the act. Suddenly a trip to Thailand (or a medical boat) for surgery isn't so appealing.

Sure there are other cheap countries but they'd follow suit.

Ruki says

They make good servants for the rest of us who do have higher IQs. :)

Or they'll kill you. Doesn't take much brainpower to pull a trigger.

Ruki says

Seriously, every time we've transitioned beyond one phase people found employment in another, newer or suddenly economically viable one with all that labor made available to do it. Every time.

Except of course for the ones who don't and become chronic welfare dependents.

Ruki says

Everybody save up your pennies. When the humanoid robots become 'affordable', you can buy one and pimp him out to the local 7-11 or what not to generate income for you.

Seriously. Think about it.

Inflation will destroy the buying power of those pennies long before the robots hit the market.

New renter says

Then the MBA's get into the act. Suddenly a trip to Thailand (or a medical boat) for surgery isn't so appealing.

Sure there are other cheap countries but they'd follow suit.

Watch the movie, 'Prometheus'. Actually ... don't watch it, it was an overpriced B-film at best. But it did present something, which will be available, when medical tourism to Thailand, Costa Rica, Mexico, India, and Cuba start to go south in a few decades, and that's an automatronic surgical unit. With units like that, 1st model probably coming out in 15+ years, a lot of procedures will be handled by robotic hands and the need for human surgeons will start to nose dive.

New renter says

Those Thai doctors may start demanding higher wages

BTW, Singapore, about 2hrs flight from Thailand, is a 1st world Asian nation, ala South Korea/Taiwan, and they have procedures costing less than the US

http://www.medicalsingapore.com/Cost_saving.html

Thus, there's room in the lower cost brackets, to siphon off US patients until surgical robots become mainstream.