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Housing Collapse Part Two

By David9 following x   2012 Sep 6, 3:24am 12,632 views   27 comments   watch   nsfw   quote     share    


Ok, this one is from America. I was reading about a Yahoo executive and this just popped up that I might like to read it.

http://www.businessinsider.com/prepare-for-the-coming-housing-collapse-2012-9

The quotes I like best:

"So it’s time for me to show you why this consensus view is pure rubbish."

"The supply of repossessed properties for sale has been intentionally constricted by the servicing banks, the GSEs and by HUD."

"In many areas of the country, it is not easy to obtain accurate, comprehensive and reliable statistics on home price"

"By the spring of 2009, the foreclosure situation had become so awful that servicing banks decided to sharply reduce the flow of REOs onto the market to keep home prices from completely collapsing."

"In the three years 2004 – 2006, an incredible total of roughly 27.5 million first and second liens were refinanced."

"Disregard reports you may have read purporting to show what percentage of homes are now underwater. These reports almost never include the second liens on the property."

"If you are among those inclined to believe the drivel about a housing bottom, I urge you to reread this article carefully."

#housing

1   PockyClipsNow   ignore (0)   2012 Sep 6, 3:51am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Here are some facts which support a rise in prices from here:

1. ANYONE can do an underwater refi now via federal programs.
(this is huge. as in massive sea change as far as keeping loanowners in thier loans)

2. Fed Reserve appears to be cocky and wants to lower mortgage rates to the floor further. 3.5% 30 year fixed is a magnet for the howmuchamonth crowd (anyone needing a loan)

We all know prices are artificially high now. The biggest change in the near future MIGHT be if we get a Romney win. Unpredictable outcome, but probably nothing will change from 'bailouts+zirp forever'.

2   David9   ignore (0)   2012 Sep 6, 3:57am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

True, I hesitate to reply if it's just a 'Dr. Obvious' agreement.

Even this guy said he doesn't have a crystal ball.

Also agree with the 'might' if Romney wins, he has said to 'let the market find it's bottom' which was booed at the Democratic convention last night.

3   David9   ignore (0)   2012 Sep 6, 4:08am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Lol, I purposely left out some quotes on Phoenix, although it was tempting.

I liked the write up on the New York City area, that he thinks prices will fall there eventually.

4   HEY YOU   ignore (7)   2012 Sep 6, 4:15am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Romney:'let the market find it's bottom'
Yes, at the bottom of the cliff.

5   David9   ignore (0)   2012 Sep 6, 4:15am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Yes, Laws vary by State, which I believe the author also went into.

I'll wait and see if prices there drop more..

6   PockyClipsNow   ignore (0)   2012 Sep 6, 4:21am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag        

OK so is patrick voting for romney based on their two polar opposite statements for housing?

Obama: "we need to put a floor under house prices" he said that in 08 pre election and HE DID IT.

Romney: "let prices find bottom or something like that"

This right here is enough to make anyone vote for the R party who probably would not do what they said anyway... but Romney will supposedly FIRE bernanke the money printing 3% mortgages for all guy.

VOTE FOR ROMNEY IF YOU WANT LOWER HOUSE PRICES!

7   David9   ignore (0)   2012 Sep 6, 4:27am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag        

I also hesitate going political on this board.

I usually have voted Democratic before, I think I voted for Reagan as a lot of other Californian's did.

I made good choices, now I am to be punished?

I just may vote for Romney. The issue is personal actually.

8   David9   ignore (0)   2012 Sep 6, 4:32am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Call it Crazy says

I believe the info on the New York City area is correct.

Cool. No disrespect to CA, but I discovered New York City in 2006 (After I sold my condo) and I fell in love with it.

9   David9   ignore (0)   2012 Sep 6, 4:38am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Darrell In Phoenix says

And you wouldn't have loved it in the 1960's

Hmm, I don't know, bring it on, might be fun. I can't believe I might vote for Romney..

10   PockyClipsNow   ignore (0)   2012 Sep 6, 4:43am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

I like the idea of nyc (bar hopping is easy, thats the draw right?)

but my hobbies are offroading, hiking, classic cars. NYC and apt living are no bueno for redneck toys.

11   David9   ignore (0)   2012 Sep 6, 5:37am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag        

PockyClipsNow says

NYC

If you haven't been there you should go, I hear you will love it or hate it.

I'm sure outside of NYC there are outdoor activities available.

Yes, I find NYC social, talking to strangers, from here or abroad, in or out of the bars. Other points pro and con, no car so you are forced to walk which is healthy, the summer heat and humidity is oppressive, was just there on Memorial Day. Of course it takes money to live there, then again, it is easy to see what 'class' you are in, just being realistic. My friend who has lived there for 20 plus years has always found work eventually. Hard to imagine, but many times the fruit (as in edible) is just so much tastier and sweeter there, I can taste it now. I have no explanation why CA fruit doesn't taste as good. I think the stereo type that New Yorkers are rude is false, of course no one talks in the rush hour! but find a small, private place and I have found them to be chatty, intelligent, friendly, and yes sexy.

12   David9   ignore (0)   2012 Sep 6, 6:44am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Ok, I have had this thought for awhile, not feeling the 'hatred' towards Roberto.

I see him as a guy with a girlfriend, a dog, a toolbox, and happens to live somewhere with a better price/rent ratio.

Hardly a threat to any economic market. Quite talented at turning the story around actually.

13   zesta   ignore (0)   2012 Sep 6, 9:02am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

http://realtybites.estately.com/what-is-the-case-shiller-index/

"Non-arms-length transactions are excluded when they can be identified through deeds or other means. A non-arms-length transaction is one between two people with an existing relationship, such as relatives. Since a relative is likely to give another relative a good deal on a home, these types of transactions are not indicative of general market trends."

"While Case-Shiller does its best to exclude non-arms-length transactions–like a father selling a home to his son for the same price he paid for it in 1950–it has no ways of excluding short sales or foreclosures. The added urgency of these situations can drive house prices downward, and in aggregate, a flood of foreclosures on the market lowers Case-Shiller Index values. Arguably, these situations do not fully capture normal home sale transactions and negotiations, and therefore skew index numbers downward."

14   lostand confused   ignore (0)   2012 Sep 6, 12:15pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

PockyClipsNow says

OK so is patrick voting for romney based on their two polar opposite statements for housing?


Obama: "we need to put a floor under house prices" he said that in 08 pre election and HE DID IT.


Romney: "let prices find bottom or something like that"


This right here is enough to make anyone vote for the R party who probably would not do what they said anyway... but Romney will supposedly FIRE bernanke the money printing 3% mortgages for all guy.


VOTE FOR ROMNEY IF YOU WANT LOWER HOUSE PRICES!

Yeah, there are a lot of things that Romney says that intrigue me. He also says he will declare China a currency manipulator on his first day in office. But the problem with Romney, is that nobody can believe him. He will say whatever he wants and then flip-flop on it.

Who is the real Romney and what does he stand for-nobody knows. Sadly it is the same for lyin Ryan, who has consistently voted for every big gubmnt bill in his terms as congress critter. Republicans also have never shrunk the govt or debt-so what does one need them for?

15   AfroAmericanBritDesi   ignore (0)   2012 Sep 6, 12:24pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Regardless of the shadow inventory... the reality as far as i can determine is...

1. Banks can hold on to shadow inventory as long as they need to....

2. Keeping supply low will keep prices up and they are in no hurry to sell.

3. US Govt is in no hurry, as if the supply increases and prices decrease, then the govt.. via Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac has losses in the mortgage portfolio

4. A possible way out of this is to keep interest rates low enough for citizens to buy them

5. Get growth in employment.

6. Let inflation rise and the dollar devalue.

7 Future 500K will be like 250K 15 years ago.

I'm good with that, because as tax payers the middle class will end up holding
the bag for any losses incurred.

Just my opinion, regardless of the flamewars. Any alternative takes on this?

16   thomaswong.1986   ignore (5)   2012 Sep 6, 1:05pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

robertoaribas says

Voting for a president just because of perceived effect on housing price could be one of the stupidest things I've ever heard...

that was the issue with spiral inflation back in the 70s. gas food, and housing costs...
nothing new to elections...

I know your a smart person Roberto!

17   StillLooking   ignore (0)   2012 Sep 6, 1:30pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

PockyClipsNow says

OK so is patrick voting for romney based on their two polar opposite statements for housing?

Obama: "we need to put a floor under house prices" he said that in 08 pre election and HE DID IT.

Romney: "let prices find bottom or something like that"

This right here is enough to make anyone vote for the R party who probably would not do what they said anyway... but Romney will supposedly FIRE bernanke the money printing 3% mortgages for all guy.

VOTE FOR ROMNEY IF YOU WANT LOWER HOUSE PRICES!

I would vote for Romney if I thought that he would get government out of the house Market. I don't think he will. I am planning on voting for Obama, because I don't think ther will be a difference between the two On housing.

And I am pretty liberal, the government in the housing market is not liberal. At least my idea of liberal

18   David9   ignore (0)   2012 Sep 6, 1:50pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Don't know if anyone just listened to the President's speech, but I was impressed. It was who I voted for 4 years ago, being very candid about the lobbyist with the $10 million dollar check trying to buy the election, $Trillions to the uber rich while there are a vast array of issue's such as unemployment, health care, the environment, the economy, jobs overseas, education, and the existing political gridlock in Washington DC.

Not apologizing that housing is one of my issues I would like answers on, but certainly not the only one.

19   StillLooking   ignore (0)   2012 Sep 6, 1:52pm   ↑ like (4)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag        

robertoaribas says

Voting for a president just because of perceived effect on housing price could be one of the stupidest things I've ever heard... As if either one could even nudge them more than a few percent ever anyways, there are much bigger issues in this country, like what kind of country are we going to be? third world with a very few rich and the rest poor, or modern country with a middle class? is mittens going to get us into a war with Iran, which will definitely end our economy for decades? support for education? reform for our complete crap medical system? etc?

How can there be a more important issue than housing policy with the government spending literally trillions to keep housing prices high?

20   thomaswong.1986   ignore (5)   2012 Sep 6, 1:59pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

David9 says

$Trillions to the uber rich while there are a vast array of issue's such as unemployment, health care, the environment, the economy, jobs overseas, education, and the existing political gridlock in Washington DC

The Iphone 5 I hear is coming soon.. any plans to roll production back to the USA?

Its been 4 years... what he done to do anything to make that happen ?

Is there anything Obama can say ?

Steve Jobs Biography Reveals He Told Obama, 'You're Headed For A One-Term Presidency'

"You're headed for a one-term presidency," he told Obama at the start of their meeting, insisting that the administration needed to be more business-friendly.

As an example, Jobs described the ease with which companies can build factories in China compared to the United States, where "regulations and unnecessary costs" make it difficult for them.

Jobs also criticized America's education system, saying it was "crippled by union work rules," noted Isaacson.

"Until the teachers' unions were broken, there was almost no hope for education reform." Jobs proposed allowing principals to hire and fire teachers based on merit, that schools stay open until 6 p.m. and that they be open 11 months a year.

21   thomaswong.1986   ignore (5)   2012 Sep 6, 1:59pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag        

Where are the JOBS Mr. President ?

22   David9   ignore (0)   2012 Sep 6, 2:11pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

thomaswong.1986 says

The Iphone 5 I hear is coming soon.. any plans to roll production back to the USA?
Its been 4 years... what he done to do anything to make that happen ?

I agree. So did the President if you listened to his speech.
Kinda hard if you are blocked at every turn.

Bottom line, just cuz I made a good real estate decision awhile back doesn't make me a billionaire and my chances in this lifetime are slim to none. I am not part of their club so why would I caddy for them for free?

23   Ignatius Pugg   ignore (0)   2012 Sep 6, 11:42pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

I am finding this forum much less interesting and less useful without the good old list of Patrick's topical articles to peruse. The discussions here boil down to semi-fanatical jousting that probably meets criteria for various psychiatric diagnoses at certain points.

As if: The government and Fed under any president won't continue to do everything possible to prop up housing prices and save the too big to fail banks who caused the mess due to being insufficiently regulated in the first place.

As if: The US government doesn't privatize corporate profits and socialize the losses, and as if the Republican agenda doesn't feed this.

As if: We're not experiencing the growth of a hard right fanatical ideology that is gradually returning our social structure toward serfs and landed gentry.

As if: Anything you boys (seems to be mostly boys) have to say beyond Patrick's value based on rents formula can help an individual decide on how to time a housing purchase.

Happy wanking! :)

24   37108605   ignore (0)   2012 Sep 11, 3:16am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

AfroAmericanBritDesi says

Regardless of the shadow inventory... the reality as far as i can determine is...

1. Banks can hold on to shadow inventory as long as they need to....

2. Keeping supply low will keep prices up and they are in no hurry to sell.

3. US Govt is in no hurry, as if the supply increases and prices decrease, then the govt.. via Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac has losses in the mortgage portfolio

4. A possible way out of this is to keep interest rates low enough for citizens to buy them

5. Get growth in employment.

6. Let inflation rise and the dollar devalue.

7 Future 500K will be like 250K 15 years ago.

I'm good with that, because as tax payers the middle class will end up holding

the bag for any losses incurred.

Just my opinion, regardless of the flamewars. Any alternative takes on this?

You make a lot of good points. 500K houses are still 250K houses because the increase was not real.

25   37108605   ignore (0)   2012 Sep 11, 5:43am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Ignatius Pugg says

semi-fanatical jousting that probably meets criteria for various psychiatric diagnoses at certain points.

Are you reading your own posts?


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