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Higher prices and rising interest rates will slow housing market appreciation


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2012 Dec 19, 11:09pm   6,214 views  19 comments

by golfplan18   ➕follow (1)   💰tip   ignore  

http://ochousingnews.com/news/rising-prices-and-rising-interest-rates-will-slow-housing-market-appreciation?source=Patrick.net

The restricted inventory condition we are dealing with here in the Southwest has caused prices to go up. However, for buying to keep pushing prices higher, interest rates must keep falling to sustain affordability at higher price levels. In a market like ours where demand is less than robust (most increased demand this year came from all-cash investors and hedge funds), any decrease in affordability is going to hurt sales. At first it will show up in decreased sales volumes. If affordability continues to crumble, prices will begin falling again.

#housing

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1   RentingForHalfTheCost   2012 Dec 19, 11:14pm  

But but but, decreased sales means appreciation (no supply) ? Wait, it could also mean depreciation (no demand). Dammit, this supply-demand economics is tricky. Who is calling the shots here, the buyer or seller. ;)

2   Oil Can   2012 Dec 19, 11:15pm  

Do we get a Fed implosion next year? Or QE 5, this time it's personal!

3   lostand confused   2012 Dec 19, 11:28pm  

Well, the Bank of Japan has been in perpetual QE for decades now. It didn't stop their slide. Though their currency appreciation may have put a dent in prices-comparitively.

now that bernake has adopted QE till all of eternity -lets wait and see how this goes.

4   RentingForHalfTheCost   2012 Dec 20, 9:11am  

robertoaribas says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

But but but, decreased sales means appreciation (no supply) ? Wait, it could also mean depreciation (no demand). Dammit, this supply-demand economics is tricky. Who is calling the shots here, the buyer or seller. ;)

Not tricky if you learn how to read: Inventory (supply) hit a low since sometime in 2005... thus, it is reduced supply.

http://money.cnn.com/2012/12/20/real_estate/existing-home-sales/index.html?iid=HP_Highlight

I tend to agree in part, however like someone said earlier, every home in the country is for sale if the price is right. We don't have an inventory problem, we have a price problem. You said yourself, that for the right price you would sell. Supply-Demand economics mentions nothing of an MLS system. We have tonnes of inventory, just low sales. Could be because sellers are asking too much, or that buyers are offering too little. The gap in these prices is the problem with sales.

5   nope   2012 Dec 20, 12:27pm  

"Higher prices will slow appreciation."

WHAT?

Either things are appreciating, or the price isn't higher.

6   Bubbabeefcake   2012 Dec 21, 4:17am  

lostand confused says

-lets wait and see how this goes.

"Hyperinflation in America isn't here yet, but we're edging dangerously close to the point of no return."
can we experience hyperinflation in the US? Yes, it’s possible… But! Hyperinflation is usually caused by the collapse of a country’s government or as a result of war. And if that happens, well then I think we will have other problems to worry about!

7   Bubbabeefcake   2012 Dec 22, 3:54am  

Oil Can says

Do we get a Fed implosion next year? Or QE 5, this time it's personal!

The U.S. economy has never been less-solvent in its entire history, meaning that U.S. Treasuries have never been less valuable. The new supply of U.S. Treasuries grossly exceeds any level of paper the U.S. has ever pumped into global markets before, meaning that Treasuries have never been less valuable. And yet we see (alleged) buyers being permanently willing to pay (by far) the highest prices in history for these mountainous stacks of paper.
http://blog.ml-implode.com/2012/05/the-mythical-land-of-us/

8   Oil Can   2012 Dec 22, 2:53pm  

E-man says

Here we go again with Mr. one liner on OCHN's post.

I'm weekend guy on this site. Just don't have much time to be on Patrick.net (any other expect OCHN) too long, so I drop my bomb and leave. I wrote this...

http://ochousingnews.com/news/the-final-bailout-of-the-housing-will-be-the-federal-reserve-of-the-all-the-housing-programs

9   Oil Can   2012 Dec 22, 7:00pm  

robertoaribas says

hat link has a minimum of 30 grammatical errors, some serious misstatements of fact, and sophomoric writing style...

7 versus 3. And you are in the most trusted profession of all.

10   Raw   2012 Dec 23, 2:05am  

RentingForHalfTheCost says

But but but, decreased sales means appreciation (no supply) ? Wait, it could also mean depreciation (no demand). Dammit, this supply-demand economics is tricky. Who is calling the shots here, the buyer or seller. ;)

Decreased sales could mean low demand, but then with low demand we would also have falling prices, and we all know prices are skyrocketing. Low sales + higher prices = no supply.
The facts are out there....We have the greatest buying opportunity in a life time. Don't screw up.

11   nope   2012 Dec 23, 3:43am  

The greatest buying opportunity was last year. There isn't any inventory now, so its a total sellers market.

12   Raw   2012 Dec 23, 3:57am  

Kevin says

The greatest buying opportunity was last year. There isn't any inventory now, so its a total sellers market.

I'll go with that. The greatest ever buying opportunity is over. But the second greatest buying opportunity is in 2013. It's never a wrong time to do the right thing, so what are you waiting for?

13   Bubbabeefcake   2012 Dec 23, 6:52am  

Oil Can says

robertoaribas says

hat link has a minimum of 30 grammatical errors, some serious misstatements of fact, and sophomoric writing style...

7 versus 3. And you are in the most trusted profession of all.

Hey Oil Can , I've arrived at the conclusion where Dumbtexan went after OCR went with Facebook

14   everything   2012 Dec 23, 7:29am  

Interest rates are not going up for years, and the fed keeps pushing that forward. Now, the fed feeding investors money to buy excess inventory has done more for price appreciation than anything. But, we've known for quite sometime who owns the government.

The headline does not really make any sense when it says higher prices will slow market appreciation?

With how cheap money has become (for certain entities), and for others yet they've got piles of it with nowhere else to go, it's no wonder we have such drastic appreciation.

In a renters society it won't matter how high property taxes, upkeep, or energy prices go either, or interest costs, as it will just be passed on.

15   Oil Can   2012 Dec 23, 9:33am  

Billybigrig LOL!

16   swebb   2012 Dec 23, 11:58am  

robertoaribas says

that link has a minimum of 30 grammatical errors, some serious misstatements of fact, and sophomoric writing style...

I thought you were probably being too harsh...then I read the first paragraph. You are being generous.

17   Oil Can   2012 Dec 23, 6:30pm  

swebb says

I thought you were probably being too harsh...then I read the first paragraph. You are being generous.

How is that 410(K) plan going for you?

18   HEY YOU   2013 Jan 1, 4:12pm  

RentingForHalfTheCost says

But but but, decreased sales means appreciation (no supply) ? Wait, it could also mean depreciation (no demand). Dammit, this supply-demand economics is tricky. Who is calling the shots here, the buyer or seller. ;)

The buyer has absolute control of the housing market. No buyer-No sale-No overpriced houses. Damn! I forgot about the ignorant(stupid) buyers that are forfeiting their power.

19   Tenpoundbass   2013 Jan 2, 2:47am  

House prices, are a like a teen slut on Jenny Jones, they will do what ever they want, that's just how they are.

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