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RentingForHalfTheCost
2013 Mar 5, 1:30am
Just means higher taxes for you if and when you move. Rising prices is not a good thing.
RentingForHalfTheCost
2013 Mar 5, 1:56am
APOCALYPSEFUCK is Shostakovich says
There is no reason a chicken coop in Stockton should not be worth $10 million.
Chickens are a sacred animal to some, so makes sense. They coops are most likely built better than the scrap wood huts in the Bay Area that go for the same amount.
Done
2013 Mar 5, 2:17am
Care to explain core-logic and case-shilelr sales prices, zillow and trulia sales prices also going up?
Simply a lack of inventory...
Done
2013 Mar 5, 2:47am
Markets are all about following the $$$.... The $$$ follows demand and creates supply.... Most of the market news is already priced in over the last 3-6 mo....
Roberto have you forgotten my stance on this subject.
robertoaribas says
Now all my values are up a ton... but it doesn't count cause it is just lack of inventory????
That wasn't the question or my answer....
I am simply answering the simple question you posed.
care to explain core-logic and case-shilelr sales prices, zillow and trulia sales prices also going up?
Stay on subject Roberto.....lol
Remember I am one who est. prices will go back to mean (up), which I believe is about 18% more for your area of interest.
Done
2013 Mar 5, 2:50am
The reason your prices are up is directly connected to inventory being down... Simple market mechanics...
Now all my values are up a ton... but it doesn't count cause it is just lack of inventory????
Done
2013 Mar 5, 2:59am
Most who attempt to invest in any market RE or other fail due to inability to read or believe "PRICE".
Done
2013 Mar 5, 3:19am
At present looking at bonds, yield curve and ect. I greatly doubt higher interest rates besides perhaps a dead cat bounce to 4.25 if that... Perhaps a new low of 2.6 30FRM wkly avg. which is a logical price point if in fact it happens. bonds seem to be bottoming. I think the season will start slow over all in that a few things yet need to be sorted.
One item I'm interested in is USD strength, and my line of thought is it may stabilize in some upper range which will keep a bit of a cap on prices.
They will grow but slower and why I am giving this a 2 yr. process to top.
REpro
2013 Mar 5, 3:41am
The reason your prices are up is directly connected to inventory being down... Simple market mechanics...
Low inventory going to be a prolong problem. In Santa Clara inventory drop to below 700 in January, now over 1100. Nice increase, hence most new listing is well above reasonable price. Those within make sense price are still in very low quantities, receive the most attention from buyers and obviously receive multiple offers.
This part, included in the article, seems lost in recent news.
From the article:
Including distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the national HPI(ed.CoreLogic Inc. (NYSE: CLGX) of Irvine.) (from April 2006 to January) was -26.4 percent. Excluding distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the HPI for the same period was -19.9 percent.
The five states with the largest peak-to-current declines, including distressed transactions, were Nevada (-51.6 percent), Florida (-43.0 percent), Arizona (-38.9 percent), Michigan (-37.4 percent) and Rhode Island (-35.5 percent).
That said, as Roberto reports, house prices have gone up the last year. Much of the arguing here seems to be about the dynamics of that increase even when not clearly stated.
Please leave room in this thread for some perma-bear to post on how all that shadow inventory is poised to hit...
any
day
now...
Done
2013 Mar 5, 6:01am
Prices are going to be very state specific for sure, with in each state and specific areas of those states.
A guideline I used to look for the bottom for my area before it was reached (regardless of the lack of inventory) was a simple matrix of law of rhythm based on house prices ( 70+ yrs data inflation rate adj.) which ultimately pointed to 3.19% annually. I then I extended the yield curve forward using the 3.19% anchor and MOM data -1.45 avg. after the peak which closely followed (I did have to adjust my data 1 to 6 bps.) which ultimately pointed to 2/2011 @ 142,957. real life it ended up @$139,205 which was close to what I had calc. for extended downward pricing. We had a bubble of approx. 125% above the law of rhythm inflation rate of 3.19%. Once those 2 lines crossed I had my line in the sand and it proved itself out (playing horse shoe style).
I am fairly certain this matrix would of worked in any area, however realize their were only a 1/2 doz. or more states that had the growth of new building and pop. that we experienced (per capita). Prices are going to be all over the board depending on the peak and the speed at which it was created, however I look for a steady increase for the national #'s and for states somewhere close to whatever the law of rhythm inflation rate is for each.
I couldn't find my MOM graph so I included the YOY graph to explain what the hell I'm talking about, if anyone cares....
http://www.centralvalleybusinesstimes.com/stories/001/?ID=22972
#housing