patrick.net

Where did all the houses go?

By definition, a bubble is a bubble because the malinvestment of misdirected capital chasing the bubbled prices results in over production of that which is in a bubble. So if what we lived thru in the 2000's was in fact a housing bubble, where did all the houses go?

How can the aftermath of a housing bubble be too few houses?

Was the problem in the wake of the tulip bubble, too few tulips?

Why is it different this time?

Awesome graph. Where does he get the data?

APOCALYPSEFUCK is Shostakovich says

Accounting fiction supported by changes in regulations that allow the banks to
obscure REO.

I like the fact no one fucks with you or calls you an idiot when you write statements of fact. Right on.

OK I was an active home buyer in year 2000, 2001 in LA county.

There were bidding wars,multiple offers, hard to get a good deal. New listings would come up at 100k more than a similar comp than the year before.

Just like now.
It sure looks like the start of a multi year upward price trend. Almost zero evidence otherwise.

Its well known every aspect of the economy is now micro managed by the feds,the banks, and the Politburo.

So calling low inventory 'accounting fiction' is not helpful to today's home buyers who are still fukt.

PockyClipsNow says

is not helpful to today's home buyers who are still fukt.

Well...thank you for that ! (true)

Real estate is truly a horrify frankenstiens monster now, more so than ever before.

I can only predict it will get crazier and crazier.

They just did millions of loan mods based on 'ok lets take 33% of your net take home pay and modify the loan to meet that number' and the feds pay the difference or buy or guarantee the loan. And most of these people had maxed out heloc. And now anyone can short sell regardless of net worth or income. hahaha. I have no idea whats next except more of the same.

PockyClipsNow says

truly a horrify frankenstiens monster now

Right again. (Unless you get lucky finding and want to try and time a flip, to be realistic.)

OK, Chris Kolmer, I always like your forums.

Every property is for sale for the right price, terms, and conditions.

You were right, I am a broken Real Estate Broker who just sees today's market place as a complete farce.

There are thousands, if not millions of Real Estate Brokers who are just trying to survive. They will say, and do anything to make a commission check.

Most Brokers I know have only recovered in the past two years from dismal sales since 2008.

There was plenty to do, there was plenty to sell, as the chart posted shows, but today all of the good deals seem to be gone?

There is plenty of inventory. The houses don't disappear. It's just a different market place.

Now about the builders, which is another unfortunate turn of events. They are competing with bigger, and bigger players. We have Toll Brothers entering our market place, and they are buying, and holding distressed lots, because they can.

Bigger players are sucking up inventory in bulk from lasts years Government sponsored bulk buying program.

I think people need to pay attention to big players, much bigger players, with much deeper pockets then I have seen before.

For that matter we have apartment complex companies that have made huge profits, in these past 5 years. Rents are up, cash reserves are growing, needed repairs are being done, and when it comes time to fight for occupancy, they'll win. Big companies can afford to take in less for rent, because they have owned some of these complexes for decades.

A lot of commercial property also changed hands, and have been turned around.

I very optimistic for the consumer as things sort out. There are plenty of things to buy, but it takes a strategy. Over all I think, in the long run, the consumer will win.

ChrisKolmar says

Awesome graph. Where does he get the data?

Out of Ben Bernanke's ass.

What are current cash purchases(those that closed this year) in Bay Area, LA, and OC?

I have a theory that its not pent up demand driving anything and I believe that's proved if >40% of sales are cash.

robertoaribas says

If that is true, then there is never a difference between any markets.... no reason to even analyze supply at all, hey all homes are for sale!!

That is correct. There are only good deals or bad deals.

You should be aware of that, but you aren't.

It makes no difference whether people are spooked, or bidding, or the inventory, or the Multiple Listing Services.

That would be clear to you, if you were in the business of Real Estate, but you aren't.

I'm thinking you are just another guy with a Real Estate license who has a day job. Isn't that right professor?

Has Real Estate ever been your sole means of support?

Clearly RE investing can be a very lucrative 'weekend hobby'.

Probably the most lucrative of any you could choose, but not quick ez money like turning tricks.

PockyClipsNow says

Clearly RE investing can be a very lucrative 'weekend hobby'.

Probably the most lucrative of any you could choose, but not quick ez money like turning tricks.

So RE agent has the best day job AND weekend hobby.

Inventory Crisis here to stay for sure in 2013

http://loganmohtashami.com/2013/02/27/housing-inventory-hangover-will-continue-in-2013/

Inventory Crisis here to stay for sure in 2013

http://loganmohtashami.com/2013/02/27/housing-inventory-hangover-will-continue-in-2013/