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S&P 500 secular (long term) bear market

By AD following x   2013 May 17, 3:13pm 745 views   0 comments   watch   nsfw   quote     share    


Bob Brinker says the secular (long term) bear market started in 2000 and is still ongoing. And that the cylical (or short term) bull market started in March 2009. Now that the S&P 500 is around 100 points above its peak in Spring of 2000, Brinker said that typically the secular bear markets end when the index rises at least 10% above the last peak. Perhaps we may see an end to a 13 year bear market.

The PE ratio is around 19 and Shiller PE ratio is around 24. We need some revenue growth and not just more belt-tightening profit gains and Fed Reserve QE to be able to drive down the PE ratio. If not, then when the Shiller PE ratio hits above 28 then it is time to at least stop buying and possibly start selling.

Reference:
http://www.multpl.com/

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