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There Will Be No Economic Recovery. Prepare Yourself Accordingly. - YouTube


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2013 May 25, 11:37am   20,858 views  63 comments

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?source=Patrick.net\\&v=bYkl3XlEneA

These are the fundamentals, but you say go all in on going long? Because inflation doesn't matter

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1   indigenous   2013 May 25, 1:43pm  

indigenous says

Hardly. Unemployment is not worse. The GDP is not worse. Social support systems are much better. Fed policy is exactly the opposite of 1930-1932. I could go on but why bother? Clearly this is another case of you accepting another dumbass on youtube without bothering to check anything for yourself.

You are smoking dope.

2   indigenous   2013 May 25, 1:52pm  

In a nut shell the important thing to look at is start up job per 1000 and that real unemployment is around 25% which sounds about right.

The reason for this is that Obama has seen to it that no one wants to start a new business in this environment which is identical to the great depression.

Like I said you need to change your handle to party like it is 1929

When is Humpty Dumpty going to fall? I don't know but he will fall. I would say when Bernanke or his successor has to start paying the historical average of 6.68% on the debt service which will launch from 200 billion a year to over a trillion a year. At that point you bet your ass whether you realize or not and APOCALYPSEFUCK is going to be quite prescient. Remember the 92 riots? well this is going to make that look like a girls scout meeting.

3   indigenous   2013 May 26, 3:59am  

APOCALYPSEFUCK is Shostakovich says

Any sane human being would have been long yams for a decade now. The longer we postpone Cannibal Anarchy, the worse it will be.

And firearms and canned goods.

That is the problem, it has been artificially propped up which never allows a recovery.

4   gbenson   2013 May 26, 6:07am  

I keep hearing people throw out that the real unemployment rate is 25%, but 25% unemployment would mean that 1 out of every 4 people you know couldn't get a job.

People who say that don't stop and think of what 25% unemployment would really look like. Because we do know what it looked like:

Welfare is hovering around 4-5%

5   PeopleUnited   2013 May 26, 7:46am  

gbenson says

I keep hearing people throw out that the real unemployment rate is 25%, but 25% unemployment would mean that 1 out of every 4 people you know couldn't get a job.

People who say that don't stop and think of what 25% unemployment would really look like. Because we do know what it looked like:

Welfare is hovering around 4-5%

It doesn't look like that today because: A) most men today don't even own a tie let alone a suit and B) welfare isn't given out in lines anymore people get their "benefits" put on their debit cards ever first of the month hence no breadlines.

6   PeopleUnited   2013 May 26, 7:50am  

Bullshit BTW gbenson, food stamps alone are given to 15% of Americans (not even close to 4-5%)

http://www.cnbc.com/id/48898378

7   magman   2013 May 26, 8:29am  

it is really simple STOP PAYING THEM spend money on food housing (rent) its not coming back ever again ...you need to emmigrate somewhere in SOUTH america...none of these pensions are going to be paid ....the president and all the kings horses cant put
humpty together again...and they only want your votes then you can go back to starving again.....all the rich people in their walled up gated communities (formerly called ghettos) are stuck they dont dare go out so they are on the hook for all the taxes until their money is nt worth anything OUR MONEY spent not in stores but in back alleys OF THE WORLD will always be worth something because we buy only used,fakes,repaired etc and we can spend our monopoly money formerly backed by uncle sam with impunity because by that time no one will know who has it dont do anything illegal just dont bank it and spend it on thingsthat can be readily sold recently a friend of mine a year younger than me died suddenly....i said out loud at the wake THE LUCKY BASTARD and i got a round of applause so get real ... its over... it will be a quiet crash... most of it has already happened ... we are really the LUCKY BASTARDS we can survive >>>>they wont!!

8   HEY YOU   2013 May 26, 10:23am  

Is SNAP concealing food lines? We no longer stand in job lines due to online job applications? I'm thinking smoke & mirrors & misdirection.

9   gbenson   2013 May 26, 1:50pm  

Vaticanus says

Bullshit BTW gbenson, food stamps alone are given to 15% of Americans (not even close to 4-5%)

Call bullshit all you like, it doesn't change the fact that only 4-5% of the population is on welfare..

http://www.statisticbrain.com/welfare-statistics/

Food stamps and welfare are entirely different animals. There are lots (and lots) of working families, retired, children, disabled, on food stamps.

10   PeopleUnited   2013 May 27, 3:02am  

gbenson says

Vaticanus says

Bullshit BTW gbenson, food stamps alone are given to 15% of Americans (not even close to 4-5%)

Call bullshit all you like, it doesn't change the fact that only 4-5% of the population is on welfare..

http://www.statisticbrain.com/welfare-statistics/

Food stamps and welfare are entirely different animals. There are lots (and lots) of working families, retired, children, disabled, on food stamps.

Now you're gonna argue that food stamps ain't welfare? Classic.

I suppose Medicaid isn't welfare either? You're just plain silly. At the very least you are arguing semantics.

11   toothfairy   2013 May 27, 4:49am  

Housing bears and libertarians still wallowing in ther mud.

12   david1   2013 May 27, 11:31pm  

indigenous says

On the last screen capture Stephan is saying 88 million working age people that
are not employed are not looking for work.

Working age people, 16 and over is where this comes from. So the civilian noninstitutional population, 16 and over, is 245MM. The labor force is 155M. So its closer to 90 million "working age" people not employed and not looking for work.

So everyone retired.
Every stay at home mom.
Every junior or senior in high school and every student in college.
ETC....

FWIW, about 13.5% of the US population is 65 and over. Not all of them are retired, but I would wager there are enough under 65 retirees to offset the working 65 and over folks. That is 42MM.

There are another 21MM in 2 or 4 year colleges. There are ~16MM in grades 9-12, so half of that (11&12) is 8MM.

That totals 71MM. Leaves 19MM for discouraged workers, stay at home mothers (fathers), invalids, etc.

Even adding ALL of that 19MM to the work force as unemployed, there would be 30 million unemployed. Divided by a (now) labor force of 174MM, that would yield an unemployment rate of 17.2%.

Still not even close to 25%. This is why John Williams and shadowstats are full of shit. He is showing 22% roughly as the "true" unemployment rate. What is he counting? I don't know - he won't give his data unless you pay him which I refuse to do.

Do you really think there are no stay at home mothers/fathers? Even if one in 20 households have a stay at home father/mother, that is another 6MM. Drops unemployment to 14.2%. If it is 1 in 10, that is another 6MM, unemployment drops to 11%.

The unemployment number published by the government is mostly accurate. It might be off by a couple tenths or so, but it isn't off by an order of magnitude.

7.5% +/- .5% at most.

Sorry to burst your bubble but the author of this youtube is an assclown.

13   finehoe   2013 May 28, 12:04am  

Vaticanus says

food stamps alone are given to 15% of Americans

One doesn't have to be unemployed to receive food stamps.

How else to you think WalMart can pay its workers the low wages that it does? Because they are subsidized by the taxpayers.

14   PeopleUnited   2013 May 28, 1:39pm  

finehoe says

Vaticanus says

food stamps alone are given to 15% of Americans

One doesn't have to be unemployed to receive food stamps.

How else to you think WalMart can pay its workers the low wages that it does? Because they are subsidized by the taxpayers.

right you are, it is not a free market when taxpayers subsidize corporations

15   indigenous   2013 May 28, 3:20pm  

robertoaribas says

Out of idle curiosity and drunkenness, wtf is your plan B, if the world doesn't happen to end?

Right back at ya

16   david1   2013 May 28, 10:49pm  

indigenous says

The main thing I look at is the start up job graph which indicates that new
jobs are not being created thus the underemployment false investment by the FED
and other pathologies we see. In his second term when Obama care and the
consumer protection act start creating the boa constrictor effects that they
will create we will long for the 7.8% number in the graph.

So if I can show you how that graph is not showing you what you think it is showing you, will your opinion of impending doom change?

17   finehoe   2013 May 28, 11:43pm  

The economy is holding up surprisingly well in a year of austerity

"A U.S. economy that was supposed to be barely hanging on is starting to look surprisingly robust.

Housing prices rose faster over the past year than they have in the past seven, according to data out Tuesday. Consumer confidence hit its highest level in five years. The stock market rallied another 0.6 percent as measured by the Standard & Poor’s 500, leaving it just short of an all-time high reached last week. And the national retail price of gasoline fell for six days straight through Monday and is down 16 cents a gallon since late February.

It adds up to this reality: In a year when tax increases and spending cuts by the federal government were expected to bleed life out of the economy, the strengthening housing and financial markets are proving to be more powerful than acts of Congress.

Americans with higher incomes are wealthier thanks to the stock market’s 16 percent rise so far in 2013. Middle-income earners, whose assets are disproportionately tied up in their homes, are becoming wealthier thanks to higher housing prices — up 10.2 percent in 20 major cities in the year that ended in March, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index released Tuesday.

And lower- and middle-income consumers have benefited from falling gasoline prices. Those are likely key factors behind overall economic data that has suggested growth that, while hardly gangbusters, is a bit better than the past few years. Gross domestic product rose at a 2.5 percent rate in the first quarter, a bit better than the average over the past several years, and the nation added an average of 196,000 jobs a month in the first four months of 2013, up from 180,000 in the second half of 2012."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/05/28/the-economy-is-holding-up-surprisingly-well-in-a-year-of-austerity/?hpid=z2

18   Dan8267   2013 May 29, 1:00am  

david1 says

So the civilian noninstitutional population, 16 and over, is 245MM. The labor force is 155M.

A meaningful definition of the labor force includes people in prison. Placing a person behind bars does not lower the real unemployment rate. Nor does it increase the per capita GDP, which is the true measure of productivity.

I would submit that placing millions of people behind bars for bullshit offenses like pot smoking is an economic crisis as well as a humanitarian crisis.

19   Vicente   2013 May 29, 1:09am  

Dan8267 says

A meaningful definition of the labor force includes people in prison.

+1

20   david1   2013 May 29, 1:30am  

Dan8267 says

A meaningful definition of the labor force includes people in prison. Placing a
person behind bars does not lower the real unemployment rate.

The incarceration rate is .75%. This includes local jails which have about 1/3 of the total and I would guess that many people in local jails have jobs or are already included in the labor force.

So we are talking about .5%. If you want to raise the unemployment rate by .5%, fine. Just do it for every year - though the incarceration rate has increased. So add maybe .15% to the 1930s-1970s unemployment numbers, increasing from there to the current .5%.

It's hardly material, but a fair point. It would be more material if a higher percentage of the population was in prison.

GDP per capita includes everyone, including people in prison, I believe. GDP per capita is GDP/population AFAIK.

Dan8267 says

I would submit that placing millions of people behind bars for bullshit
offenses like pot smoking is an economic crisis as well as a humanitarian
crisis.

Agree.

21   Dan8267   2013 May 29, 1:47am  

david1 says

It's hardly material, but a fair point. It would be more material if a higher percentage of the population was in prison.

Fair enough. It doesn't add much. However, I think your figures are a bit off.

There are currently around 2.2 million people behind bars. Most would fall between the age of 20 and 65. Let's say 2 million or 90% of them do.

There are 183,889,000 people between the age of 20 and 65 in the U.S. (Table 1)

That's 1.1% of the working age population unemployed and not counted because they are behind bars. Granted, this is an estimate, but it should be pretty close.

If you are measuring the economic impact of this, you also have to consider that this 1.1% of the population (1.2% if you include those outside the working age), is a drag on the economy. This economic impact is further exasperated when you consider that these people often cannot find work when they leave prison due to discrimination, thus causing them to rely on government social programs for life.

22   Vicente   2013 May 29, 2:03am  

Dan8267 says

you also have to consider that this 1.1% of the population (1.2% if you include those outside the working age), is a drag on the economy.

But you have to add back, the fact that you'd put out of work a lot of otherwise-unemployable prison guards.

23   indigenous   2013 May 29, 2:11am  

david1 says

So if I can show you how that graph is not showing you what you think it is showing you, will your opinion of impending doom change?

It is about what the graph is measuring. This video shows what I'm talking about. This is a solid concept that you and K people need to get. Especial Vicente and his concern for the poor prison guards except they make 6 figures and only exist because of government meddling in the first place.

http://www.youtube.com/embed/xr9iLCR1Uskrobertoaribas says

Out of idle curiosity and drunkenness, wtf is your plan B, if the world doesn't happen to end?

I will look at how to take advantage of the next bubble.

24   finehoe   2013 May 29, 2:52am  

indigenous says

the poor prison guards except they make 6 figures and only exist because of government meddling in the first place.

More and more prisons are private, for-profit enterprises. Between 1990 and 2009, the inmate population of private prisons grew by 1,664%.

http://www.policymic.com/articles/24142/the-number-of-people-in-private-prisons-has-grown-by-1-664-in-the-last-19-years

25   Dan8267   2013 May 29, 2:52am  

Vicente says

But you have to add back, the fact that you'd put out of work a lot of otherwise-unemployable prison guards.

Also true. However, prison guard work is non-wealth-producing work. At best it's overhead, at worst it's parasitic. As such it does not contribute to the GDP, or per capital GDP, and thus is functionally equivalent or worse than unemployment.

26   Dan8267   2013 May 29, 2:59am  

Whether jobs are created by the "government" or the "private sector" is not important. Both government and corporations are fictional entities and the distinction today is not even clear. Our governments are corporations and corporations write legislation. They are hardly separate entities.

What is important is whether jobs are productive, non-productive, or destructive. The creation of the highway transportation system was productive work done by the government. The mortgage back security derivatives created by Goldman Sachs was non-productive work. The various wars waged by government were destructive (negative production) work.

In the end, only two things matter: how much wealth per capital is produced and how that wealth is distributed. Everything else is a distraction.

27   AD   2013 May 29, 3:23am  

Dan8267 says

The creation of the highway transportation system was productive work done by the government. T

I like your views here Dan. I think you mean that $ is going to tangible products and services that directly benefit the standard of living, and not just for a few thousand Goldman Sach employees.

28   indigenous   2013 May 29, 4:27am  

Dan8267 says

Whether jobs are created by the "government" or the "private sector" is not important.

That is not true, what distinguishes the two is whether they do this by coercion or voluntary exchange.

Dan8267 says

In the end, only two things matter: how much wealth per capital is produced and how that wealth is distributed.

That is not true. It is that real wealth is created (this is not just money) at all. How it is distributed does not matter, as long as government does not get involved in specious redistribution.

29   indigenous   2013 May 29, 4:42am  

finehoe says

More and more prisons are private, for-profit enterprises. Between 1990 and 2009, the inmate population of private prisons grew by 1,664%.

That article is a canard. The numbers are ambiguous. They are trying to state that private prisons are more likely to have a higher recidivism rate than the the public ones. In Calif the prisons got rid of inmate training in order to fund public employee pensions at the Susanville prison it went from one of the lowest recidivism rates to one of the highest in the nation.

Although one of the legitimate functions of government is the rule of the law the more they privatize this the better imo.

30   david1   2013 May 29, 4:56am  

indigenous says

That is not true. It is that real wealth is created (this is not just money)
at all. How it is distributed does not matter, as long as government does not
get involved in specious redistribution.

You must think Brunei is a fantastic place then.

31   indigenous   2013 May 29, 5:12am  

david1 says

You must think Brunei is a fantastic place then.

Don't know anything about it. But since you are bringing it up no doubt it is a symbol of evil capitalism with inequality

32   tatupu70   2013 May 29, 5:22am  

indigenous says

How it is distributed does not matter

You must be kidding. An ecomony will high wealth disparity simply doesn't function as well as one with more equal distribution.

It has nothing to do with fair/unfair, evil/holy, good/bad, or any moral or ethic basis. It's simply an economic fact that when disparity gets too large, an economy stops working.

33   indigenous   2013 May 29, 5:30am  

tatupu70 says

indigenous says

How it is distributed does not matter

You must be kidding. An ecomony will high wealth disparity simply doesn't function as well as one with more equal distribution.

It has nothing to do with fair/unfair, evil/holy, good/bad, or any moral or ethic basis. It's simply an economic fact that when disparity gets too large, an economy stops working.

No joke. The free market creates equality. The ONLY way there is inequality is through government. Government says we are going to force taxpayers to bail out TBTFs otherwise the TBTFs would fail and be disposed of right quick. In the free market if the supposed monopoly charges too much competition lowers the price. If the supposed monopoly buys the market through predatory pricing the competitors have to wait it out until the predatory pricing stops in the mean time the customer benefits as when Rockefeller lowered the price of heating oil, and btw saved the whales.

34   david1   2013 May 29, 5:46am  

indigenous says

Don't know anything about it. But since you are bringing it up no doubt it is
a symbol of evil capitalism with inequality

IT is one of the wealthiest nations in the world on a GDP per Capita basis. It is an illustration of the problems with using GDP per capita as a measure of wealth. It is essentially mean GDP. Median GDP would paint a much different picture, however.

The Sultan of Brunei is one of the richest men in the world. The vast majority of his 400k subjects live in ridiculous poverty. Estimates of the difference between wealth for the top 10% to the bottom 10% range from 200-300 times. It is so bad Brunei, a member of the United Nations, does not supply sufficient statistics to allow its Gini ratio to be calculated.

As a point of reference, this ratio is about 10 times in the US. The US has a Gini ratio of .4.

The Lorenz curve for Brunei would give new meaning to the term "hockey stick" graph.

35   indigenous   2013 May 29, 5:58am  

david1 says

IT is one of the wealthiest nations in the world on a GDP per Capita basis. It is an illustration of the problems with using GDP per capita as a measure of wealth. It is essentially mean GDP. Median GDP would paint a much different picture, however.

The Sultan of Brunei is one of the richest men in the world. The vast majority of his 400k subjects live in ridiculous poverty. Estimates of the difference between wealth for the top 10% to the bottom 10% range from 200-300 times. It is so bad Brunei, a member of the United Nations, does not supply sufficient statistics to allow its Gini ratio to be calculated.

As a point of reference, this ratio is about 10 times in the US. The US has a Gini ratio of .4.

The Lorenz curve for Brunei would give new meaning to the term "hockey stick" graph.

That is interesting. I thought that was in the middle east. It sounds like a true monopoly where the government controls the market place.

36   🎂 Tenpoundbass   2013 May 29, 6:00am  

Recovery is what happens when everybody moves on.

In every singe economic crash that I have lived through to date, there has never ever once been a recovery. The economy just reinvents its self and moves along a new path, but you don't really notice. Until you reflect one day, that I used to do this for a living, but now I do this. Times were hard back then, though the economy sure doesn't seem better, I am managing to get along just fine now.

It's kind of like hair growth, by the time you start enjoying your new long coif, somebody comes along and gives you a buzz cut.

37   tatupu70   2013 May 29, 6:01am  

indigenous says

The free market creates equality.

Completely backwards. The free market creates inequality.

indigenous says

Government says we are going to force taxpayers to bail out TBTFs otherwise the
TBTFs would fail and be disposed of right quick.

Not relevant to the discussion about inequality.

indigenous says

In the free market if the supposed monopoly charges too much competition lowers
the price.

I'm not sure you understand the definition of monopoly.

indigenous says

If the supposed monopoly buys the market through predatory pricing the
competitors have to wait it out until the predatory pricing stops in the mean
time the customer benefits as when Rockefeller lowered the price of heating oil,
and btw saved the whales.

lol--again, I'm not sure you understand what you are talking about here. The customer enjoys the predatory pricing until all competitors are gone, then they are forced to pay whatever price the monopoly supplier chooses to charge forever. There is no waiting it out.

38   indigenous   2013 May 29, 6:07am  

CaptainShuddup says

The economy just reinvents its self and moves along a new path

Accept when the government meddles and artificially props up what should have come to an end, this takes resources that should have been invested towards the new path and forces the old TBTFs to not fail. And you have what we have now. Which creates unemployment because the new employment was stopped by the we "know besters", which indicates the world record magnitude of their ignorance.

39   🎂 Tenpoundbass   2013 May 29, 6:13am  

indigenous says

Accept when the government meddles and artificially props up what should have come to an end, this takes resources that should have been invested towards the new path and forces the old TBTFs to not fail.

That goes with out saying.

If the forest service were to go out into the forest and build elaborate scaffolding around all of the sick and dying trees. Then eventually the only thing left in the Forrest will be Dead trees propped up by sticks. As nothing else will ever grow.

I was not championing a Recovery. I was just stating that since 2007, the best thing the FED could have done, was shut their fucking mouth, and got to know their NEW customers. The old one's should have been tossed out of the club.

40   indigenous   2013 May 29, 6:18am  

tatupu70 says

The free market creates equality.

Completely backwards. The free market creates inequality.

Yes that is the meme that most have swallered.

Have you heard the one about the football scout who asks the farm worker who is pushing a plow without a horse, do you play football? can you pass a football? The farm worker replies no I have never played football but if I can swallow it I can pass it.

Unfortunately yous who have swallowed it can't pass it.

tatupu70 says

I'm not sure you understand the definition of monopoly.

There is no real monopoly other than when government interferes in the market place as would a King give a certain market to a crony.tatupu70 says

lol--again, I'm not sure you understand what you are talking about here. The customer enjoys the predatory pricing until all competitors are gone, then they are forced to pay whatever price the monopoly supplier chooses to charge forever. There is no waiting it out.

It is NOT forever. Sears was not forever nor Walmart nor Amazon or Standard Oil or AT&T or General Motors or Ford or Microsoft.

See Shudup's post above there is some profound wisdom in those words are you wise enough to listen?

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