patrick.net

The time is right to now sell that property you have been waiting to sell and put it around the neck of that ARM FHA first time home buyer w/3% down.

woohoo blowin' bubbles

I wish it were like that here. In the city(42k pop) I'm looking to buy a home there are exactly 18 SFR active listings with 3+ beds. :(

lakermania says

I wish it were like that here. In the city(42k pop) I'm looking to buy a home there are exactly 18 SFR active listings with 3+ beds. :(

move to some place else

Phoenix isn't imploding yet, that's all that matters. Any mention of increasing inventory elsewhere can be ignored.
Phoenix still has steady inventory and homes are selling.

Phoenix is the best place on earth to live. Everyone wants to live there. Just look at all the people (investors) buying homes?

We can all relax now, as long as Phoenix is doing well.

Everything is fine. No worries. Nothing bad could or will happen. All the money invested wasn't a mistake.

Like I said, everything is fine. Best go for another bike ride in that wonderful, glorious place called Phoenix. The best place on earth to live.

Everything is fine.

No worries...

waiting_for_the_fall says

Phoenix isn't imploding yet, that's all that matters. Any mention of increasing inventory elsewhere can be ignored.

Phoenix still has steady inventory and homes are selling.

Phoenix is the best place on earth to live. Everyone wants to live there. Just look at all the people (investors) buying homes?

We can all relax now, as long as Phoenix is doing well.

Everything is fine. No worries. Nothing bad could or will happen. All the money invested wasn't a mistake.

Like I said, everything is fine. Best go for another bike ride in that wonderful, glorious place called Phoenix. The best place on earth to live.

Everything is fine.

No worries...

LOL

puhim says

sell and put it around the neck of that ARM FHA first time home buyer w/3% down

Not in Los Angeles. Here, it's cash or fuck you. Realtors will totally c-block you if they find out you are a first time, ARM, FHA, or otherwise leprosied buyer.

lakermania says

I wish it were like that here. In the city(42k pop) I'm looking to buy a home there are exactly 18 SFR active listings with 3+ beds. :(

Housingtracker.net reports a -1.0% decrease in US inventory week-over-week, and inventory is still down -9.9% year-over-year. The only markets they are reporting with meaningful inventory increases this week are Houston, Detroit, Boise City, and Philadelphia.

This guy would be more convincing if he actually listed the "little city" in CA where the inventory jumped so quickly. To me this smells of BS.

Here is a chart showing inventory of major cities year over year and month over month in June 2013

http://www.realtor.com/data-portal/Real-Estate-Statistics.aspx

smaulgld says

Here is a chart showing inventory of major cities year over year and month over month in June 2013

http://www.realtor.com/data-portal/Real-Estate-Statistics.aspx

Other than LA/Orange county, nothing looks unusual there. Certainly no countrywide trend. And inventory in even LA is down YOY.

Interest rates going up will not change anything. Anything!

Just because home prices increased as rates dropped does not mean rates increasing will do the opposite. It will not happen. Not!!

My homes will not decrease in value. I have made 2 million dollars on my investment homes (even though I haven't sold any yet).

There is nothing to worry about. Everything is fine. Someone will buy my homes when I'm ready to sell. There was no mistake. My decision making skills are still top notch.

People ask me for advice all the time. My advice is in high demand. Just ask me about bikes or dogs. I know a lot of stuff.

Like I said, interest rates going up will not change anything.

There is absolutely nothing, NOTHING, to worry about.

Everything is fine.

No worries...

waiting_for_the_fall says

Just because home prices increased as rates dropped does not mean rates increasing will do the opposite. It will not happen. Not!!

Uh, have you looked at 2008-2010? Sure looked like housing prices dropped as interest rates dropped to me.

waiting_for_the_fall says

Like I said, interest rates going up will not change anything.

Historically, there is no correlation between nominal housing prices and interest rates.

waiting_for_the_fall says

Interest rates going up will not change anything. Anything!

Just because home prices increased as rates dropped does not mean rates increasing will do the opposite. It will not happen. Not!!

My homes will not decrease in value. I have made 2 million dollars on my investment homes (even though I haven't sold any yet).

There is nothing to worry about. Everything is fine. Someone will buy my homes when I'm ready to sell. There was no mistake. My decision making skills are still top notch.

People ask me for advice all the time. My advice is in high demand. Just ask me about bikes or dogs. I know a lot of stuff.

Like I said, interest rates going up will not change anything.

There is absolutely nothing, NOTHING, to worry about.

Everything is fine.

No worries...

Let's just be honest here and state that Roberto did just fine with his investments. No pointless digs are going to change that.

Lol. Not over my head... Just pointing out that the sarcasm is actually funny... Because he's so wrong that he's right.

waiting_for_the_fall says

Like I said, interest rates going up will not change anything.

Historically, there is no correlation between nominal housing prices and interest rates.

That is correct but this time IS different. Normally rate increases correspond with a growing economy. This time rates will rise because the fed will threaten to taper or taper its QE purchases

Rising rates because the fed isn't buying is not good for housing prices. If rates were rising because the economy was growing it would be close to a zero sum impact

smaulgld says

This time rates will rise because the fed will threaten to taper or taper its QE purchases

So your thinking is that the Federal Reserve will do this before the economy is improving?

waiting_for_the_fall says

Phoenix is the best place on earth to live. Everyone wants to live there. Just look at all the people (investors) buying homes?

Phoenix is basically the Florida of the west where lotsa' retirees go along with the zillions of Midwestern snowbirds.

tatup70"So your thinking is that the Federal Reserve will do this before the economy is improving?"

My thinking has been that the Fed has to keep the markets guessing-they can not be seen as doing QE 24/7/365 days a year forever-that would undermine the dollar.

They also know as ben has said that if rates rise "the economy would tank"

this is an admission that without QE the "growth" referred to by Roberto above would not exist.

So the Fed is in a bind-they would love for the economy to pick up so they can just stop QE and be able to say they avoided the depression by their program. But I don't think its that easy.

So the Fed will lean towards continuing QE unless they can point to dramatic improvement in the economy.

They may do a "test taper" in sept to see how the markets, real estate and economy react. They can quickly reverse if they want.

After all they "tapered" QE's 1, 2 already and started three and extended three

smaulgld says

that would undermine the dollar.

Who says keeping the dollar strong is one of their goals?

smaulgld says

So the Fed will lean towards continuing QE unless they can point to dramatic improvement in the economy.

So you agree then that when rates rising, home prices will likely be rising too.

tatupu70 says

Who says keeping the dollar strong is one of their goals?

That's they "mandate" by congress, preserving purchasing power = keeping the dollar strong. Not that they would care since it's not legally enforceable.. ;)

Tatupu70 "Who says keeping the dollar strong is one of their goals?" Its not A dollar is!

Tatupu70 "So you agree then that when rates rising, home prices will likely be rising too."
Yes normally higher rates are a sign of an improving economy so higher prices for homes can be borne.

BUT this time rates are rising because of the threat that the fed might stop buying treasuries & MBS's which will reduce their demand and cause rates to rise.

This is a major difference. If rates rise because the fed isn't buying it will have the reverse impact on the housing market than when they were buying

smaulgld says

BUT this time rates are rising because of the threat that the fed might stop buying treasuries & MBS's which will reduce their demand and cause rates to rise.

Yep! Once the fed stops buying, existing buyers have a say and demand a higher rate since they're the only buyers and bernanke can't drown them out when he buys at 0%. Long term rates however, Ben has no control and the smart money controls it. The question is that will the smart money consider ben's tapering a risk going forward when he buys again to where even when he stops buying rates still go up...

Call it Crazy says

robertoaribas says

the economy and employment have been growing for over 4 years

Except, people who use to have $50K jobs but are now working at Home Depot for $20K don't buy houses.......

Well, at least not until the Return of the NINJA

smaulgld says

This is a major difference. If rates rise because the fed isn't buying it will have the reverse impact on the housing market than when they were buying

But you agree that won't happen, so why keep bringing it up? You might as well worry about Aliens blowing up the White House.

when the bubble started in the 98-2001 era in my area of central mexifornia I was able to see it using simple tools and with PatNet help I avoided it.

the crash was harder to call because of gov/fed manipulation

the "recovery" is really really hard to see due to gov/fed manipulation

in my opinion the only way things get right is for true market forces to be put in place and the gov/fed hand removed. There is still a whole lot of buyers being created by "programs".

One major area that needs big adjustments is the huge amounts getting extorted by landlords. Rents are being held as high as possible by greedy fucks. I submit that every local council should find the difference in crininal activity in rental areas vs owner occupied areas, and take that info and use it to create limit the use of SFH as rentals by making it very expensive to do so. Charge any landlord a "public safety" fee per unit to pay for the added police needed due to their tennants.

Aslo, any profit from a rental house should be taxed at 80% at the local level. Make using a home as a rental a very bad business choice and then there will be owners in homes and neighborhoods will get healed.

Do the above and prices will drop and match the incomes of the area. A home should be purchased with no less that a 10% downpayment using the common [1X average area income for a lower end home] [2X average area income for a middle class home] [and 3X for the really nice stuff]

Housing prices should be tied to actual incomes in the area.
Renting of SFH should be made a bad business choice through taxation with the taxation used to pay for the public services that rental areas impact.

The only chance for home prices to go down is for homes to become out of favor as investments. Smart money will know when to get out, but, unfortunately, the dumb money is here to stay, and there is a lot of it.

The best thing any prospective home buyer can hope for at this point is for prices to remain flat. They aren't going down in any of our lifetimes.

exfatguy says

The best thing any prospective home buyer can hope for at this point is for prices to remain flat. They aren't going down in any of our lifetimes.

Oh Really ! Smart money is saying housing market is going to crash

...but thanks for the damage control anyway

http://truthingold.blogspot.com/2013/08/smart-money-is-telling-us-housing.html?m=1

Bubbabear says

exfatguy says

The best thing any prospective home buyer can hope for at this point is for prices to remain flat. They aren't going down in any of our lifetimes.

Oh Really ! Smart money is saying housing market is going to crash

...but thanks for the damage control anyway

http://truthingold.blogspot.com/2013/08/smart-money-is-telling-us-housing.html?m=1

I'd love to see it crash. I'd become a homeowner if prices became reasonable.

But if there was any hope of that happening, it would have happened after 2007 and would still be going down. Instead, they found another way to blow it back up. And they will again. And again. And again.

I hate it as much as you do, but I finally realize they're not going to let this thing go back to normal for whatever god-awful reason.

exfatguy says

I hate it as much as you do, but I finally realize they're not going to let this thing go back to normal for whatever god-awful reason.

you have me mistaken then, because I can only thing I can do is laugh in amusement ...dumb money = bagholders and knifecatchers

exfatguy says:
The only chance for home prices to go down is for homes to become out of favor as investments. Smart money will know when to get out

...and leave the dumb money holding the bag

Dumb money is a self-sustaining ecosystem, it seems.