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Millennials will be the 1st generation to see the end of work

By Rin following x   2014 May 20, 11:41pm 15,987 views   115 comments   watch   nsfw   quote     share    


The primary thing which defines the WWII & Boomers was that they were the generations which had actually experienced an era where one's labor was of value to society. And this, coupled with a proliferation of infrastructure and widespread use of technologies, gave them the greatest opportunities in life.

Then, something changed ... the development of information technologies and the automation of work. In the beginning, it was small stuff like calculators replacing slide rulers but then, it had expanded all over the place. Today, Gen X, as it's entering full adulthood, will be seeing many jobs disappear by retirement. In fact, I'm convinced that if one doesn't make money in the next 20 to 30 years, it's game over.

Thus, Millenials despite all their adoration for smart phones and automation tools, will see that their actual work is of no value. A certain percent of them, like 1% to 3%, will be architects of high end robots/AI tools but a vast majority, will be getting laid off, in place of automated systems, which can do former white collar tasks like market analysis and portfolio management.

My hope is that I'm safely tucked away in some New England town, with robot sentries, guarding my residence. I suspect that Millenials will be wanting to rob me, since it'll be clear to them, that I'm one of those, who'd survived the age of automation to retire comfortably.

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76   indigenous   ignore (0)   2014 May 22, 3:38am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag        

Rin says

As for percentages, who cares

The point is that there is a very high mortality rate for Corporations.

You have drank so much kool aid that you decisions are so full of hate that they are irrational.

I have to be careful of that with government, very few are more negative than the libertarians. It will color your thinking if you are not careful.

77   thomaswong.1986   ignore (5)   2014 May 22, 3:43am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag        

Rin says

Then, something changed ... the development of information technologies and the automation of work.

You need to reread history and see everythings changes constantly.

Your whole thesis is proven wrong.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-B9k6FXCPOc

78   thomaswong.1986   ignore (5)   2014 May 22, 3:46am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (2)   quote   flag        

Rin says

Millennials will be the 1st generation to see the end of work

Perhaps more like the first stupid generations because they keep
ignoring the past... all the accomplishments...

little snotty arrogant pricks more like it...

79   thomaswong.1986   ignore (5)   2014 May 22, 3:57am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag        

Rin says

hen a company fails, its assets get absorbed by private equity, spun out, and merged some some other company.

As for 100 year firms, we have Pratt, GE, DuPont, Westinghouse, State St, etc.

many just die out... with no outside interest, assets sold to public.
always interesting to go to SV liquidation sales/auctions.

80   thomaswong.1986   ignore (5)   2014 May 22, 4:01am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag        

indigenous says

The value is measured in unit cost. If the product is not six sigma it does not get considered. Vietnam, Malaysia, Philippines, etc. have a hard time making stuff to six sigma standards. Let alone at a lower unit cost.

very true and people keep missing this. In short no matter how cheap the labor costs, the spoilage is too high which gets factored into good units which
does not lower unit costs, but increases.

81   Heraclitusstudent   ignore (2)   2014 May 22, 4:08am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Bellingham Bill says

Heraclitusstudent says

I think so far computers are changing the way things are done, and where the jobs are, but they have not caused massive unemployment.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/USINFO

What is your point?
There was an internet bubble and y2k bug?

82   Rin   ignore (3)   2014 May 22, 5:12am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

thomaswong.1986 says

Rin says

Then, something changed ... the development of information technologies and the automation of work.

You need to reread history and see everythings changes constantly.

Your whole thesis is proven wrong.

_https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-B9k6FXCPOc

Ok, I'd skimmed through that documentary and I don't see how that changes how corporate execs and owners, are changed by the fact that certain ppl are curious & have adherence to rituals? Workers need to earn money, to survive. Ppl, however, are dis-empowered, why do you think I'd advocated for a welfare state for scientists and engineers, independent of corporate or academic America.

83   Rin   ignore (3)   2014 May 22, 5:25am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

indigenous says

You have drank so much kool aid that you decisions are so full of hate that they are irrational.

I have to be careful of that with government, very few are more negative than the libertarians. It will color your thinking if you are not careful.

I think that was my idea of the science/engineering sponsorship state, where S&Es will get a basic stipend, if they pass a series of S&E exams.

As far as funding it goes, I don't think an ordinary financial firm can make it happen, including the Gates/Buffet foundations. It'll have to be lobbied through the Dept of Defense, since those are the deep pockets in DC.

I don't expect much, however, from corporate America.

84   indigenous   ignore (0)   2014 May 22, 5:27am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (2)   quote   flag        

Rin says

I'd advocated for a welfare state for scientists and engineers, independent of corporate or academic America.

While otherwise I'm sure very smart? When it comes to economics you are illiterate. I mean you FAIL economics 101.

What is truly amazing to me is how complete propaganda permeates otherwise intelligent people.

85   thomaswong.1986   ignore (5)   2014 May 22, 5:32am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag        

Rin says

Ok, I'd skimmed through that documentary and I don't see how that changes how corporate execs and owners, are changed by the fact that certain ppl are curious & have adherence to rituals?

Changes is a constant in the western world.... its part of our culture.

86   thomaswong.1986   ignore (5)   2014 May 22, 5:33am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag        

Rin says

I think that was my idea of the science/engineering sponsorship state, where S&Es will get a basic stipend, if they pass a series of S&E exams.

And as the USSR showed.. such ideas have failed.

87   Rin   ignore (3)   2014 May 22, 5:37am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

indigenous says

What is truly amazing to me is how complete propaganda permeates otherwise intelligent people.

I guess you really have not worked with executives in your career & thus, have bought into academic theories of pure Supply/Demand dynamics and other stuff without recognizing distortions at all levels, including political/monetary actions, geared towards the higher ups.

What I've observed is that the baseline worker bee, usually gets the shaft in the end, paying for a rentier society where they're at the bottom strata.

If you believe that the above will change on your lifetime, then I'd say that you're living in a Private Idaho.

88   Rin   ignore (3)   2014 May 22, 5:39am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

thomaswong.1986 says

Rin says

I think that was my idea of the science/engineering sponsorship state, where S&Es will get a basic stipend, if they pass a series of S&E exams.

And as the USSR showed.. such ideas have failed.

The USSR had forced their scientists to pretend to do work & much of that work had to align with party ideologies. And outside of that, their only other option was to join the Red Army.

But yes, despite those piss poor conditions, Soviet scientists did in fact do a lot of good work in mathematics.

http://geomblog.blogspot.com/2009/11/soviet-style-mathematics.html

http://tinyurl.com/ob4chz6

Here, in my sponsorship, S&Es are free to do what they want. Plus, at $32K-$40K per annum, many will leave for a higher paying job, being a bean counter for corporate America. Yes, many will try to find a monied career out there. Realize this, S&Es, by nature, are intelligent persons and one can parlay a tech background into some business function out there, even if it's as dull as fixing unix batch scripts for accounting.

89   Rin   ignore (3)   2014 May 22, 5:40am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Here's that thread on the science sponsorship state

http://patrick.net/?p=1240106

90   Mark77   ignore (0)   2014 May 22, 5:47am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Rin says

examination

Examination = degree. We already have such a system in the universities. No need for an additional 'examination'. Having said that, I don't agree with paying stipends or welfare to anyone, nevermind scientists. What I do have a problem with is immigration and economic policy that essentially places the careers of scientists and engineers in handcuffs with the glut of foreign labour and the anti-industrial policy thus induced.

91   Rin   ignore (3)   2014 May 22, 5:49am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Mark77 says

Rin says

examination

Examination = degree. We already have such a system in the universities. No need for an additional 'examination'. Having said that, I don't agree with paying stipends or welfare to anyone, nevermind scientists. What I do have a problem with is immigration and economic policy that essentially places the careers of scientists and engineers in handcuffs with the glut of foreign labour and the anti-industrial policy thus induced.

No degree, that's lining the pockets of university administrators. This is self-study.

This is to liberate the free thinkers from brain dead jobs in finance, like the one I have right now.

92   Rin   ignore (3)   2014 May 22, 5:51am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Let me re-type that thread here...

I think it's time that the horseshit about science and engineering careers comes to an end.

Corporations are offshoring R&D and the govt is limiting funding to key *pet* principal investigators in the academy (plus national labs). You know, the loudmouths who shout slogans like 'Nano' 'Nano', all day.

So here's my plan... we create a federally funded program, paid out of the defense budget and that's the science & engineering sponsorship society.

The idea is that by getting a particular score in a series of science & engineering exams, i.e. Organic Chemistry, Signals & Systems, Partial Differential Eqs, etc, one can get a stipend of $32K to $40K per year, to sit around and contemplate. The military will also provide some subsidized housing in a coastal area in the Carolinas, next to a base and thus, provide added security. Others, can either get their own place [ wherever they want ] or live with their parents.

Then, in order to maintain one's stipend, a new exam must be taken every two years. Thus, for a person who's let's say a biochemical engineer, he might take catalytic processes or mass transport phenomena, so that he keeps his stipend. Or, if he's more broad based, complex variables or structural biochemistry. Obviously, this means that during the year, each recipient will be doing a little bit of studying, in preparation for another exam.

The idea here is that we create a society of STEM folks, who're free thinkers and neither postdoc serfs of the academy nor the b*tches of corporate America's MBA-ologists.

New ideas and creative proposals will come out of the above program. And at the same time, this will keep a certain multi-generational talent of S&Es going, regardless of the whims of corporations and academic hacks.

93   Mark77   ignore (0)   2014 May 22, 5:57am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Rin says

The idea is that by getting a particular score in a series of science & engineering exams,

I think enacting policy measures (ie: stopping the H-1B program, fixing economic policy) to encourage the private sector to engage such individuals is far more effective than concocting a minimal-compensation welfare program. After all, the people enrolled in such a hypothetical program would be in competition with 'paid' scientists. Eventually business would seek to unload all of its R&D onto the low-priced scientists, much like they do with the H-1B's today, and to a lesser extent, on the open source software community.

94   Rin   ignore (3)   2014 May 22, 6:02am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Mark77 says

I think enacting policy measures (ie: stopping the H-1B program, fixing economic policy) to encourage the private sector to engage such individuals is far more effective than concocting a minimal-compensation welfare program.

The private sectors own the PACs, lobbyists, and so forth. It's highly unlikely that anything will change in DC, in favor of workers.

Mark77 says

After all, the people enrolled in such a hypothetical program would be in competition with 'paid' scientists. Eventually business would seek to unload all of its R&D onto the low-priced scientists

In this program of mine, S&Es won't actually be working. For them, it's a way to work on their ideas. Companies will send R&D to the rest of the globe, in search of the next India-China anyways, perhaps it'll be 25% Romania, 25% Kazakhstan, 25% Malaysia, 25% Philippines, who knows. Aside from defense work, the corporate R&D lab will be a worldwide venture.

95   Rin   ignore (3)   2014 May 22, 11:54am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Not a very through site but at least, makes it clear that the problem is corporate America ...

http://corporate-america-sucks.com

96   Bellingham Bill   ignore (5)   2014 May 22, 12:06pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Heraclitusstudent says

What is your point?

There was an internet bubble and y2k bug?

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=Bqk

97   Rin   ignore (3)   2014 May 22, 12:26pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Bellingham Bill says

Heraclitusstudent says

What is your point?


There was an internet bubble and y2k bug?

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=Bqk

And the worst is yet to come.

98   Reality   ignore (5)   2014 May 22, 12:38pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag        

Exams + stipend is a sure - fire combination to kill rigorous and creative intellectual pursuits. Science and engineering have dominated universities as we know them for about a century and half. Before then, the vast majority of word's top universities churned out theocrats: exams + stipend. Harvard, Yale and Princeton were all theocratic seminaries on the Christian tract. So were their models: Cambride, Oxford and University of Paris, in reverse chronically order. Paris itself was modeled after the great Islamic universities of the Caliphate ( which now sounds utterly absurd). Then there were Chinese and Jewish book worm repositories for thousands of years before that. When you put in place government run exams and stipend, you end up with scripture memorization and re - interpretation.

Only the market rewards a century and half ago transformed universities into what we know them today in the modern context.

Recently, universities are already showing the detriment of government meddling:

1. The fastest growing science department is the pseudoscience of global warming;

2. The fastest growing major utilizing advanced math has been financial engineerimg, because the FED rigs the financial market in favor of the financial engineers/gamblers

3. The most numerous masters degrees are for education majors, because that's what the tax funded monopoly schools want for teaching positions.

It should surprise no one that students choose major based on how the game is rigged. If you rig in favor of exams + stipend, students will focus on exam taking instead of real creative pursuits. And it would not be long before lobby pressure to include pseudoscience and female - friendly subjects to be included for qualification to receive stipend. Soon enough we'd be back at the theological seminaries, where the universities began.

99   Rin   ignore (3)   2014 May 22, 12:49pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Reality says

Only the market rewards a century and half ago transformed universities into what we know them today in the modern context.

Market means Harvard/Wharton MBAs, etc. The key parachutes for a successful career in finance, banking, or management consulting.

Sure, there are those MIT/Stanford types, who get VC money, to start a new tech venture, but again, that's not pure R&D either.

Reality says

Science and engineering have dominated universities as we know them for about a century and half. Before then, the vast majority of word's top universities churned out theocrats: exams + stipend. Harvard, Yale and Princeton were all theocratic seminaries on the Christian tract. So were their models

Again, I'm not talking about universities and their established ivory towers. I could care less about getting an adjunct prof position with little pay and no job security.

Sure, exams don't tell the whole story, however, where else does one start? Can you give a stipend to someone, who only scores a 20% on a chemistry exam or to someone who gets a 70%?

Today, the establishment is pushing 'nano' nonsense, because they have access to the grant money and then, corral a bunch of grad students and postdocs to follow their dictum. That's not creativity, that's a game of a bunch of useless profs, building their funding empires.

My idea is to liberate everyone to do their own thing.

100   Rin   ignore (3)   2014 May 22, 12:58pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Reality says

2. The fastest growing major utilizing advanced math has been financial engineerimg, because the FED rigs the financial market in favor of the financial engineers/gamblers

BTW, I'm a financial engineer, though I'd never own up to that title. And my friends and I did it, w/o academia. It's basically an observation that support/resistance areas resemble phase boundaries. And then, add in some fuzzy controller theory, and you've got some financial applications. Trust me, you don't need to be Tesla to figure it out. But sure, it's good to have friends with some academic know-how to pull it off.

101   Reality   ignore (5)   2014 May 22, 1:04pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Rin,
The market reward a century and half ago that I was talking about was in regard to the industrial revolution (American version) in the late 19th to early 20th century.

The Harvard and Wharton MBA today is symptomatic of the rise of big consolidated multinational corporations, thanks to FED's bailouts favoring large over small. The nano nonsense is precisely the result of government funding of science. It's the new how many angels can dance on the tip of a pin research subject.

The solution is getting government out of science, and stop central banking that favor big corporations.

102   Rin   ignore (3)   2014 May 22, 1:06pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Reality says

The Harvard and Wharton MBA today is symptomatic of the rise of big consolidated multinational corporations, thanks to FED's bailouts favoring large over small. The *** nonsense is precisely the result of government funding of science. It's the new how many angels can dance on the tip of a pin research subject.

The solution is getting government out of science, and stop central banking that favor big corporations.

Of course I agree with the above but I think we've gone past the point of no return.

103   Reality   ignore (5)   2014 May 22, 1:11pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Rin says

Reality says

2. The fastest growing major utilizing advanced math has been financial engineerimg, because the FED rigs the financial market in favor of the financial engineers/gamblers

BTW, I'm a financial engineer, though I'd never own up to that title. And my friends and I did it, w/o academia. It's basically an observation that support/resistance areas resemble phase boundaries. And then, add in some fuzzy controller theory, and you've got some financial applications. Trust me, you don't need to be Tesla to figure it out. But sure, it's good to have friends with some academic know-how to pull it off.

Trust me, I have written those things myself. They have limited shelf life, typically one 8 yr economic cycle. It breaks when too much money is riding on the same wagon. There just isn't enough market inefficiency to accommodate too much money exploiting it. Soon enough you run the margin thin and run out of counter parties to sell to when you and everyone else punch the sell button. The real business model there is taking the winnings home when the taking is good, then count on FED bailout or bankruptcy court protection when the market turns on your model. Just like the original Black-sholes.

104   Rin   ignore (3)   2014 May 22, 1:13pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Reality says

Trust me, I have written those things myself. They have limited shelf life, typically one 8 yr economic cycle. It breaks when too much money is riding on the same wagon.

Why do you think I'm trying to get out of this current career track, with a decent exit package? Also, why do you think that my firm uses both discretionary trading (meaning trader intuition) along with the software tools? It's basically as you'd stated, these things can't hold up indefinitely.

105   Reality   ignore (5)   2014 May 22, 1:22pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

LOL. I like your New England sensibility

106   Rin   ignore (3)   2014 May 22, 1:25pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Reality says

LOL. I like your New England sensibility

Believe me, I hate the world of big business & finance.

I wish I were simply born rich and I could do my own research & development in my family's summer mansion.

107   Reality   ignore (5)   2014 May 22, 1:32pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

It's not cheap to run a masion. You'd need a gardener, etc, then the gardener's daughter will be way too distracting to allow you indulge in your scientific pursuits when you are young and creative.

108   Rin   ignore (3)   2014 May 22, 1:35pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Reality says

It's not cheap to run a masion. You'd need a gardener, etc, then the gardener's daughter will be way too distracting to allow you indulge in your scientific pursuits when you are young and creative.

You don't know me then.

I'd have an esc*rt gal up in Montreal [ everything is 'ok' legally up in Canada ], ready to serve me, when I'm on R&R.

As an offspring of a rich person, Rin Rockefeller, they'd be very proud of me and my perseverance in the arts and sciences.

What sucks is when you're middle class and trying to appease a bunch of corporate bozos.

109   Reality   ignore (5)   2014 May 22, 1:50pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Well, there's also the chance that Rin Rock might follow Michael Rock into the stomachs of some cannibals in Borneo. Having a wing of the museum named after you would be small consolation.

Visiting brothels in Montreal might also be a security risk. At least the family would not be proud of you at all in that case. You'd better fall in love with the gardener's daughter "Sabrina" style, or was she the chauffer ' daughter?

110   Rin   ignore (3)   2014 May 22, 10:57pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Reality says

Rin Rock might follow Michael Rock into the stomachs of some cannibals in Borneo. Having a wing of the museum named after you would be small consolation.

Visiting brothels in Montreal might also be a security risk. At least the family would not be proud of you at all in that case.

I think I'll survive that dangerous passage of i-87, between Westchester NY and Montreal QC :-)

As for security, since we own a few of the Ritz-Carltons & Four Seasons, the security detail can check out the esc*rt before she enters the room.

Reality says

You'd better fall in love with the gardener's daughter "Sabrina" style, or was she the chauffer ' daughter?

That's the problem with this generation, everyone is into chick flicks. It's time to leave that stuff to Hollywood and live a real life.

111   Rin   ignore (3)   2014 May 23, 5:31am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Strategist says

So where will the jobs be?

Reference loop to an alternate thread on robots

/?p=1243117

113   Tenpoundbass   ignore (14)   2019 Apr 24, 10:47am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Every 3 or 4 generations there are a lost generation of people who for what ever reason exempted themselves from the normal human social contract.

The Millennial will go down as one of those. While they impact our current affairs. History will find them boring and pointless.

Thousands of years of human evolution requires we innovate or be productive. People will not stop working because the lunch vending machine is spitting out quarters.
114   komputodo   ignore (1)   2019 Apr 24, 10:52am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Rin says
Thus, Millenials despite all their adoration for smart phones and automation tools, will see that their actual work is of no value

Most govt. employees, despite all their adoration for affirmitive action, have seen that their actual work is of no value
115   Rin   ignore (3)   2019 Apr 24, 12:49pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

komputodo says
Rin says
Thus, Millenials despite all their adoration for smart phones and automation tools, will see that their actual work is of no value

Most govt. employees, despite all their adoration for affirmitive action, have seen that their actual work is of no value


That's already been established for at least one generation.

What's not established is when a sizable majority of ppl formally working for places like State Street, Ernst & Young, MetLife, etc, discover that their work is automated and that those companies could suffice with 10-15% of today's headcount.

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