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1   anonymous   ignore (null)   2014 Jun 4, 1:50am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag        

I bought my house in august of 07

I remember the beads of sweat mounting on the realtors forehead,,,,as I was about the last one in the door before lending was halted. So I assume that for almost seven years now, there's been virtually no liar bullshit loans written

For about six years, we've had the government throw the kitchen sink at trying to patch over the mess. Trillions have been wasted cleaning up the bad debts. Years of working the bad mortgages thru the pipeline, lowering rates, helping the overindebted refinance etc.

Yea, id hope "we" are past any point of foreclosure tsunamis

2   Strategist   ignore (2)   2014 Jun 4, 2:34am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Call it Crazy says

Are you expecting all these pre-foreclosures and houses in default in your area to clear on their own and become current??

*

Looks like a lot, but delinquencies are close to normal levels.
I don't see the problem.

3   HEY YOU   ignore (7)   2014 Jun 4, 3:45am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Call it Crazy,
The big question for me is,how many buyers are there that can qualify to purchase these shacks?

It would be interesting to keep an eye on this inventory & see how many sell & how long it takes to remove these from the market.

With 10 overpaying bidders for each,they should all be gone tomorrow. lol

4   BoomAndBustCycle   ignore (0)   2014 Jun 4, 4:32am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Crazy,

I pulled up the zipcode on that graphic.. 07016 New Jersey area. Punched it into Zillow.. and got this information...
http://www.zillow.com/cranford-nj-07016/home-values/

07016 Market Health
Data through Apr 30, 2014

5.7/10 Healthy
8.8% Homes with negative equity (18.8% US Avg) (Mar 31, 2014)
5.9% Delinquent on mortgage (7.2% US Avg) (Mar 31, 2014)
*****

Historically the average foreclosure rate is 5%... so I would say your graphic is very deceptive. 071016 zip code actually is a lot healthier than most of the US when you actually dig down into the numbers.

5   BoomAndBustCycle   ignore (0)   2014 Jun 4, 4:48am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Call it Crazy says

I didn't pull up each blue house and do a county search, it's just what Zillow reports...

Needless to say, my point was the graphic leads one to see it as A LOT of foreclosures and delinquent homes. When if you took the same snapshot of the area in the 70s or 80s... it might look exactly the same based on historical delinquency and foreclosure rates... BUT alas.. we didn't have zillow or the internet back then.

6   CDon   ignore (0)   2014 Jun 11, 9:02am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag        

Call it Crazy says

Why?

Mostly because this belief is causing people to make terrible choices on the assumption that if they continue to wait on the foreclosures to be puked up en masse, prices will be blasted back to the stone age. The question was never "do they exist" (they clearly do) but simply how will they be disposed of?

For example, witness, Patrick's point #7 why now is a "terrible" time to buy a home:

7. Because there is still a massive backlog of latent foreclosures. Millions of owners stopped paying their mortgages, and the banks are still not forclosing on all of them, letting the owner live in the house for free. If a bank forecloses and takes possession of a house, that means the bank is responsible for property taxes and maintenance. Banks don't like those costs. If a bank then sells the foreclosure at current prices, the bank has to admit a loss on the loan. Banks like that cost even less. So there is a tsunami of foreclosures on the way that the banks are ignoring, for now. To prevent a justified foreclosure is also to prevent a deserving family from buying that house at a low price. Right now, those foreclosures will wash over the landscape, decimating prices, and benefitting millions of families which will be able to buy a house without a suicidal level of debt, and maybe without any debt at all!

/housing/crash1.html

I feel very sorry for anyone who believes this here and now in Mid 2014 as it is patently clear there will be no "Tsunami" but instead a drip drip drip of foreclosures released into a market of stable or rising prices. To maintain this belief in 08 or 09 is one thing - but to tell people in mid 2014 that if they wait prices will be "decimated" is fundamentally irresponsible.

7   APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch   ignore (41)   2014 Jun 11, 9:03am   ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag        

Until the accounting principles are put back to normal, all we can assume is that all the books are cooked.

Count your yams and hope for the best.

8   Heraclitusstudent   ignore (2)   2014 Jun 11, 9:32am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag        

Banks do unload a lot of foreclosures and over time it reduced the magnitude of the problem.

- As long as prices as up, losses are kept down. Prices up, means less underwater people, less incentives to foreclose, more possibilities to sell, less losses for banks.

- Kicking out squatters doesn't change the availability of housing: squatters will have to rent while a new unit comes in the market. All in all I don't think it

- There are 10 millions more people in the US than in 2010.

Especially in areas like CA, we are suffering from a lack of housing, not overbuilding.

9   Howdy There   ignore (0)   2014 Jun 11, 10:32am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

"Until the accounting principles are put back to normal, all we can assume is that all the books are cooked."

This is REALLY big. As long as traditional (rational) accounting standards are suspended, it's no use trying to use traditional (rational) logic. Why sell a rotting house at a loss when you can keep it at book and collect your C level bonus?

10   rooemoore   ignore (1)   2014 Jun 11, 11:38am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

errc says

I bought my house in august of 07

I remember the beads of sweat mounting on the realtors forehead,,,,as I was about the last one in the door before lending was halted.

Hindsight's a bitch.

11   APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch   ignore (41)   2014 Jun 11, 11:52am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag        

Howdy There says

"Until the accounting principles are put back to normal, all we can assume is that all the books are cooked."

This is REALLY big. As long as traditional (rational) accounting standards are suspended, it's no use trying to use traditional (rational) logic. Why sell a rotting house at a loss when you can keep it at book and collect your C level bonus?

Any market economy that cooks the books as a matter of course deserves to collapse.

What use is underwriting probity if the accountants are instructed to write fictions?

12   anonymous   ignore (null)   2014 Jun 11, 11:54am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag        

rooemoore says

errc says

I bought my house in august of 07

I remember the beads of sweat mounting on the realtors forehead,,,,as I was about the last one in the door before lending was halted.

Hindsight's a bitch.

And foresight can be a godsend. Luckily I was reading patnet back then, and waited until it sat on the market awhile and lowballed them once they really needed to sell :)

13   tatupu70   ignore (0)   2014 Jun 11, 9:11pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Howdy There says

This is REALLY big. As long as traditional (rational) accounting standards
are suspended, it's no use trying to use traditional (rational) logic. Why sell
a rotting house at a loss when you can keep it at book and collect your C level
bonus?

You're completely missing the point. If banks were doing this en masse, it would show up on the delinquency rates. Those rates are almost back to normal, so the only logical explanation is that banks aren't doing what you propose.

14   tatupu70   ignore (0)   2014 Jun 12, 12:23am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

CIC--I don't see your posts anymore, but looking at CDon's quote above, I guess I'd reply that Linden isn't in my hood.

15   CDon   ignore (0)   2014 Jun 12, 1:08am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag        

Call it Crazy says

CDon says

How do we know this level of little blue houses is not well within the range of long term normalcy?

Read the article link I posted above and it will give you the current situation in NJ, which is where that picture of the blue houses came from...

I did. The problem is, without numbers, what do the raw percentages mean. I know for example DC (one of the "skyrocketers" in that article) now has 1 in 13,485 houses in some state of foreclosure:

http://www.realtytrac.com/statsandtrends/foreclosuretrends

Thing is, back in 09 (when people were promising me the "Tsunami" was coming) DC had 1 in 500 houses in some state of foreclosure. In any event, I gave up on the idea of a "wave" back in 2010 when the rate fell to 1 in 1000 and quit tracking it.

In any event, we could go round and round on this since neither you nor I have any good long term data on NJ foreclosures, and whether this 96% increase in new jersey is anything to get all hysterical about - so therein lies the larger point which I am now trying to get you to turn to:

Seeing as you bought, I assume even you gave up on the idea of a "wave" which was going to "decimate prices" as Patrick said.

Alternatively, do you still believe: "there is a tsunami of foreclosures on the way that the banks are ignoring," ... "those foreclosures will wash over the landscape, decimating prices" as summed up by Patrick?

And if so, why did you buy? Why didn't you wait for the upcoming price decimation?

16   APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch   ignore (41)   2014 Jun 12, 1:39am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

It's like this:

If your accounting principles are twisted to covert losses, you're running an organized crime enterprise.

Civilization has been cancelled until accounting principles are restored to norma.

17   rooemoore   ignore (1)   2014 Jun 12, 2:06am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

errc says

rooemoore says

errc says

I bought my house in august of 07

I remember the beads of sweat mounting on the realtors forehead,,,,as I was about the last one in the door before lending was halted.

Hindsight's a bitch.

And foresight can be a godsend. Luckily I was reading patnet back then, and waited until it sat on the market awhile and lowballed them once they really needed to sell :)

Well, that's good. Out here there was a small window in early 2012 when the banks started loaning again and prices hadn't soared.

18   CDon   ignore (0)   2014 Jun 12, 2:20am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag        

Call it Crazy says

Unlike your sister, what Patrick said had ZERO influence on my decision to purchase...

So you never believed there was going to be a "wave" or as patrick said "Tsunami" which was going to (not just cause them to fall, but) "decimate prices"?

If so, then you answered your own question "why?" in response to Tat who said can we give up on this whole "wave" thingy which was going to "decimate prices".

Thing was, for the better part of 5 years there was this relentless, hysterical screeching that a "TSUUUUUUUUUNAMI" was coming, which was going to blast prices back to the stone age. Even the normally bearish but rational Diana Olick got all the bears all agitated with her call of them hitting with a "Thunderous roar"

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2487512/posts

And I for one grew weary of the constant need for drama with all this nonsense of "waves" and "decimated prices". I would have thought that Sean O'Toole from foreclosure radar put this issue to bed last fall when (on your thread no less) he pointed out:

sean7825 says

Five years later the only thing that is clear is that there will NOT be a wave of foreclosures, or any real threat of shadow inventory hitting the market. There should have been a wave, but bankers and politicians changed the rules so that there wouldn't possibly be one.

If you recall there were alarming reports earlier this year by both RealtyTrac and CoreLogic that ONLY 10-15% of bank owned homes were listed for sale. Everyone jumped up and down about the pending disaster when the other 90% hit the market. Only problem was that they all knew nothing about the post foreclosure process... The story of a coming flood got a lot of traction and was great marketing, but was also completely wrong. This is exactly the same.

So yes, I think it is very much time to "give up" on the idea of a wave decimating prices, and I guess you do to since you never really believed of it in the first place.

19   Heraclitusstudent   ignore (2)   2014 Jun 12, 2:36am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag        

APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch says

Civilization has been cancelled until accounting principles are restored to norma.

When asset prices are inflated at will, accounting is moot.

20   CDon   ignore (0)   2014 Jun 12, 2:48am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag        

Call it Crazy says

I don't know why you are so anal about the "wave" comment...

Because it was the subject matter of this thread, and as I noted before, its irresponsible and detrimental to those that continue to believe that if they wait, prices will be decimated.

Call it Crazy says

The article above also said that 21 states posted monthly increases, so if 42% of states are seeing a rise, maybe it's not a "wave", but it's definitely NOT a flat or declining sea...

Like I said, what are the long term numbers we are talking about? What are the raw numbers at work here? DC is one of those "skyrocketers" in that it now has 1 in 13,485 in some stage of foreclosure. Yet, if we know when prices were falling, it was 1 in 500 (2009), and they started rising when the foreclosure rate improved to 1 in 1000 (2010 & beyond), should we really care if it now is at 1 in 13,485?


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