patrick.net

Only stat from that article that matters:

High costs have deterred potential buyers and held May sales 5% below a year earlier.

Who cares if it jumped 4.9% from April to May? The number probably always goes up from April to May. Down 5% YOY is the real news.

SubOink says

the National Assn. of Realtors said

Case in point!

corntrollio says

Only stat from that article that matters:

High costs have deterred potential buyers and held May sales 5% below a year earlier.

Who cares if it jumped 4.9% from April to May? The number probably always goes up from April to May. Down 5% YOY is the real news.

Those numbers are seasonally adjusted to account for the usual jump from April to May. Focusing on only one number is not usually a good practice. Best to look at all the numbers and weigh them appropriately. Sales down 5% from a year in which house prices jumped by 10% annualized isn't necessarily a bad sign. That obviously wasn't going to last for too long.

And FWIW--if you want to only look at one number, look at inventory.

corntrollio says

Only stat from that article that matters:

High costs have deterred potential buyers and held May sales 5% below a year earlier.

Who cares if it jumped 4.9% from April to May? The number probably always goes up from April to May. Down 5% YOY is the real news.

The figures are seasonally adjusted. Damn good numbers. New home sales come out tomorrow. If they beat expectations I'm ready to call an end to the housing crisis.

Call it Crazy says

tatupu70 says

Sales down 5% from a year in which house prices jumped by 10% annualized isn't necessarily a bad sign.

What if sales are down YOY because the market is equalizing, and this so called "10% price jump" is because the distressed sales have dropped, and the increase the past year is an illusion and just represents the discount on the distressed sales last year??

Distressed homes – foreclosures and short sales – accounted for 11 percent of May sales, down from 18 percent in May 2013. Eight percent of May sales were foreclosures and three percent were short sales. Foreclosures sold for an average discount of 18 percent below market value in May, while short sales were discounted 11 percent.

Higher sales of high end properties and low sales to first time buyers is pushing up the median for now. I'm counting on a real recovery with high unit sales and large number of new construction accompanied by sharply rising prices in coastal states.

Strategist says

I'm counting on a real recovery with high unit sales and large number of new construction accompanied by sharply rising prices in coastal states.

Who can afford that?!

tatupu70 says

Those numbers are seasonally adjusted to account for the usual jump from April to May.

No, the seasonal adjustment is for the annualized number, not the month-to-month number.

tatupu70 says

Sales down 5% from a year in which house prices jumped by 10% annualized isn't necessarily a bad sign.

I didn't say it was a "bad sign." I'm saying the MOM number is completely useless because it always goes up from April to May unless something very bizarre happens.

tatupu70 says

And FWIW--if you want to only look at one number, look at inventory.

Does the article say what happened with inventory?

Strategist says

The figures are seasonally adjusted.

No, the annual number is seasonally adjusted. So if X% of yearly home sales typically happen in May, they use seasonal adjustments to determine the annual rate based on May numbers. The monthly number from month-to-month is what it is.

Strategist says

If they beat expectations I'm ready to call an end to the housing crisis.

There was never a "crisis" per se. What we needed was more foreclosures and short sales in order to have better price discovery, but instead we got a lot of government and quasi-government measures to prevent that. I don't think we have a normal organic housing market right now for some of the reasons that Logan cites, e.g. the first-time buyer market and move-up market are not normal, especially in the housing markets that I care about.

corntrollio says

No, the seasonal adjustment is for the annualized number, not the month-to-month number.

And the percentage gain is from the annualized number. So, yes, the seasonal adjustment is in there.

corntrollio says

I didn't say it was a "bad sign." I'm saying the MOM number is completely useless because it always goes up from April to May unless something very bizarre happens.

As discussed previously, that's why they are seasonally adjusted.

corntrollio says

Does the article say what happened with inventory?

It mentions inventory in passing, but other articles about existing home sales do a better job. In any event, I was just commenting that if you are to only follow one number--it should be inventory.

I love it - post an article into this forum and watch the bomb go off - LOL!!!!

SubOink says

I love it - post an article into this forum and watch the bomb go off - LOL!!!!

Everyone that post a new article is immediately moved to the top of the Shit List.

HEY YOU says

SubOink says

I love it - post an article into this forum and watch the bomb go off - LOL!!!!

Everyone that post a new article is immediately moved to the top of the Shit List.

lol!!

Call it Crazy says

tatupu70 says

Sales down 5% from a year in which house prices jumped by 10% annualized isn't necessarily a bad sign.

What if sales are down YOY because the market is equalizing, and this so called "10% price jump" is because the distressed sales have dropped, and the increase the past year is an illusion and just represents the discount on the distressed sales last year??

Distressed homes – foreclosures and short sales – accounted for 11 percent of May sales, down from 18 percent in May 2013. Eight percent of May sales were foreclosures and three percent were short sales. Foreclosures sold for an average discount of 18 percent below market value in May, while short sales were discounted 11 percent.

Hi, I'm new here. Been to pat.net years ago. My family and I are lookin to buy a house... So I'm researching :)

So basically you are saying that with less distressed properties on the market, median home prices would rise? Which isn't indicative of a recovering housing market esp. when looking at that data in relation May YOY numbers. That would indicate we are correcting to the downside...

Call it Crazy says

tatupu70 says

Sales down 5% from a year in which house prices jumped by 10% annualized isn't necessarily a bad sign.

What if sales are down YOY because the market is equalizing, and this so called "10% price jump" is because the distressed sales have dropped, and the increase the past year is an illusion and just represents the discount on the distressed sales last year??

Distressed homes – foreclosures and short sales – accounted for 11 percent of May sales, down from 18 percent in May 2013. Eight percent of May sales were foreclosures and three percent were short sales. Foreclosures sold for an average discount of 18 percent below market value in May, while short sales were discounted 11 percent.

Hi, I'm new here. Been to pat.net years ago. My family and I are lookin to buy a house... So I'm researching :)

So basically you are saying that with less distressed properties on the market, median home prices would rise? Which isn't indicative of a recovering housing market esp. when looking at that data in relation May YOY numbers. That would indicate we are correcting to the downside...?

Thank for the reply. Makes sense.

siklidkid - take what you read here with a giant grain of salt

Best thing do what I did - figure out your own personal situation and make a decision based on only that because that's what counts. It's too complex and too many variables to listen to other peoples opinions. If I had followed the pat.net lead I would have not bought in 2011 and now I couldn't afford my own house - I couldn't even rent it because rents are too expensive.

SubOink says

If I had followed the pat.net lead I would have not bought in 2011

Yes, take it with a grain of salt, but there were voices on here calling a bottom around 2009/2010. They were unpopular voices, but you have to be able to filter good information from bad, and sound analysis from biased hokum.

If you dig through all the malarkey, there is insight here.

absolutely (by the way, the bottom was in 09/10 depending on location - in my case '11 was the moment where the sellers of the house we were eyeing were finally letting go of the property in a "we give up fashion" (after 3 years of listing 100k too high and chasing it down then taking our low ball offer) so we bought below bottom)

SubOink says

absolutely (by the way, the bottom was in 09/10 depending on location - in my case '11 was the moment where the sellers of the house we were eyeing were finally letting go of the property in a "we give up fashion" (after 3 years of listing 100k too high and chasing it down then taking our low ball offer) so we bought below bottom)

My family and I are looking at a property that would be the perfect fit for us. My family and mother are pooling our funds to by a property outright... with our current family goals, we can't afford to have a mortgage.

The current owners listed it way too high (in our opinion)... They had over thirty showings with no offers within the first 45 days. We came at them with what both my agent and the sellers agent believed to be a strong cash offer. Day 60 or so they dropped it 15k... We are now almost at 90 days, still active.

The trend I am seeing for the area is inventory creeping up slowing and only a few homes under 200k have sold... So I am simply trying to find data that supports a tend in any direction as to better position myself in this potential purchase.

It seems to me that median prices can be very misleading by themselves. Just because median prices are rising as a whole isn't necessarily indicative of an upward price movement for a particular segment...

Seasonally adjusted my dick is 12". When they revise these number in a month, like they almost always do, the market will look much less rosy.

FunTime says

Strategist says

I'm counting on a real recovery with high unit sales and large number of new construction accompanied by sharply rising prices in coastal states.

Who can afford that?!

The same type who can afford Manhattan apartments, along with the now Asian millionaires.