patrick.net

NY Times: A recovery in need of a recovery
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/18/upshot/housing-starts-fell-in-june-heres-why-thats-bad-news.html

Same could have been said in 2004-2007. I think since 2004-2007 is still fresh in everyone's minds... That we won't bubble up to new heights again. But the market isn't gonna to retreat to new lows either. Could we retrace to 2011 lows... maybe, but not likely.

BoomAndBustCycle says

Same could have been said in 2004-2007. I think since 2004-2007 is still fresh in everyone's minds... That we won't bubble up to new heights again. But the market isn't gonna to retreat to new lows either. Could we retrace to 2011 lows... maybe, but not likely.

I think the focus this time has been ALL on price which in this distorted low volume low wage environment missed the point.
So what that home prices on the few that were sold raced higher? It was an investor party only

so what do you people want- higher house prices or lower house prices?

The Original Bankster says

lower house prices?

I want better houses.

I want a house I can buy for $50,000 and use for 7 years like a car, and then dispose of it and buy a new one, on loan, for $300 a month.

The Original Bankster says

so what do you people want- higher house prices or lower house prices?

If you are a homeowner higher prices
Homebuyer lower prices

John Bailo says

The Original Bankster says

lower house prices?

I want better houses.

I want a house I can buy for $50,000 and use for 7 years like a car, and then dispose of it and buy a new one, on loan, for $300 a month.

isnt that what the condo thing was all about?

seems most of what you all bought into was just imaginary value. some dream of white picket fences and economic prosperity- you got the exact opposite.

BoomAndBustCycle says

Could we retrace to 2011 lows? Not likely.

I fixed it for you. :-)

The Original Bankster says

so what do you people want- higher house prices or lower house prices?

It doesn't matter what we want. The market determines the prices. As much as we like to think we are relevant, we're not. Feel free to go against the market at your own peril.

John Bailo says

The Original Bankster says

lower house prices?

I want better houses.

I want a house I can buy for $50,000 and use for 7 years like a car, and then dispose of it and buy a new one, on loan, for $300 a month.

Sounds like mobile home is what you're looking for. Unfortunately, you're still someone else's bitch until you own the land.

bgamall4 says

BoomAndBustCycle says

Same could have been said in 2004-2007. I think since 2004-2007 is still fresh in everyone's minds... That we won't bubble up to new heights again. But the market isn't gonna to retreat to new lows either. Could we retrace to 2011 lows... maybe, but not likely.

I have been advocating boycotting the mortgages and the banks, and the millennials have been doing just that!

LOL! You get it all backwards. They're not boycotting. They just can't afford to buy unless they make the kind of money that the hi-tech people in the Bay Area are making.

John Bailo says

The Original Bankster says

lower house prices?

I want better houses.

I want a house I can buy for $50,000 and use for 7 years like a car, and then dispose of it and buy a new one, on loan, for $300 a month.

Why dispose of it? Just rent it out. I am still driving my 1985 F150, because it still has utility and replacement cost is higher, plus it is still in great shape and know I can still sell it for 2-3K.

Love your idea of "better disposable houses" and 3D printing may make that a reality. but don't just "dispose", instead, "re-use" or "recycle".

John Bailo says

The Original Bankster says

lower house prices?

I want better houses.

I want a house I can buy for $50,000 and use for 7 years like a car, and then dispose of it and buy a new one, on loan, for $300 a month.

You want your home to depreciate too?

E-man says

John Bailo says

The Original Bankster says

lower house prices?

I want better houses.

I want a house I can buy for $50,000 and use for 7 years like a car, and then dispose of it and buy a new one, on loan, for $300 a month.

Sounds like mobile home is what you're looking for. Unfortunately, you're still someone else's bitch until you own the land.

Then you are the state's as you owe them property taxes or they will take it from you.

Property taxes suck, it's like an additional government shakedown every year.

Fox: What's REALLY Holding back the housing recovery?
according to NAR- for a good laugh
http://www.foxbusiness.com/personal-finance/2014/07/17/whats-really-holding-back-housing-recovery/

The Professor says

From the article:

“Construction jobs pay well, but what we can interpret from this is Americans are unwilling to go out in the sun and play with dirt to help build homes. They want an air-conditioned job. It is frustrating, the job market isn’t normal, they pay well but the builders are having a hard time finding skilled workers.”

Maybe more H1B visas would fix it?

Grasping at straws- must suck being in charge of the excuse department

komputodo says

The Original Bankster says

so what do you people want- higher house prices or lower house prices?

Notice that no one answered your question? And smaulgld just hedged.

Everyone is opinionated until they get asked a direct question.

Me: lower prices

Unhedged:Lower prices

Lower prices will clear the market, make it easier for first time home buyers.

Here is my view on the dark side of rising home prices:
http://smaulgld.com/the-dark-side-of-rising-home-prices/

komputodo says

smaulgld says

You want your home to depreciate too?

Just thinking outside the box, why is it that everything we buy and use daily is expected to depreciate except our house? What makes our house the exception to the rule?

The land on which it sits.

"But a number of key metrics suggest that the party is over, and any future home price appreciation will be slow and steady from here on out. Here are four charts showing why the housing recovery has ended:"

So, if future home price appreciation will be slow and steady from here on out then we aren't recovering? Is the definition of "recovery" = "double-digit price appreciation?" I would think that "slow and steady" is what we want and a sign of a normal recovery. The other is madness and isn't sustainable.... and results in "busts."

komputodo says

turtledove says

The land on which it sits.

So when you buy a suburban house on the outskirts of phoenix or vegas, where there has never been anything built on that land since the beginning of time and you paid 100k for it and 3 years later it appreciated to 200k, its because that little piece of land upon which your house sits is suddenly extremely valuable?

I don't disagree, but that isn't what you originally asked. You've qualified your original question considerably.

komputodo says

turtledove says

I don't disagree, but that isn't what you originally asked. You've qualified your original question considerably.

Now that I've qualified my question, why are these types of houses expected to appreciate? There are many tracts of homes built on land that had never been occupied with miles upon miles of vacant land next to them.

Because it is written.

Deflation should have occurred already, but considerable effort went into protecting homeowners (whose wealth is tied into their homes) and the banks (who would have had to close shop). Despite all this stimulus, we've had little inflation (as it's officially calculated). Clearly, the economy desperately wanted to contract. Stimulus thwarted that and even created what appears to be growth.

What's different this time? If houses were to align with wages, for example, either banks, homeowners, or future buyers would have to make up the difference. The banks are NEVER going to take a haircut, and existing homeowners and future buyers are unable to pay the difference. Someone has to lose.

Our policy, so far, has been to let everyone be winners. Stimulus saved the banks and homeowners. Slowly re-loosening lending standards (FHA in particular) have allowed credit to, once again, be used instead of wages in order to maintain the affordability illusion.

I just don't have faith that the interference will ever stop. Perhaps someday it will have to.

If the housing recovery is over, why do prices keep going up?

Three years ago, I wanted houses to go down, b/c I didn't have any. Now, I have two houses and two mortgages, so I want house prices to go up. I don't want them to go up too fast, b/c I have family members that want or may want to buy in the not too distant future. So, I don't want them to go up too fast.

It's pretty simple really. Pretty much everyone desires what is in the best interests of themselves and/or people they love. This applies to house prices and pretty much everything else.

turtledove says

Deflation should have occurred already, but considerable effort went into protecting homeowners (whose wealth is tied into their homes) and the banks (who would have had to close shop). Despite all this stimulus, we've had little inflation (as it's officially calculated). Clearly, the economy desperately wanted to contract. Stimulus thwarted that and even created what appears to be growth.

True the Fed fought deflationary pressures by printing money. They got by design asset price inflation in housing and the stock market which acted as a gift for the wealthy. A with all inflation the rich get to use the printed dollars first when they still have value. Now it's everyone else's turn to feel the brunt of the Fed's money printing.

RentingSusan says

If the housing recovery is over, why do prices keep going up?

You have to define "recovery". If few homes are sold but the few that are sold have higher prices, does that mean the housing industry is doing well?
It means fewer people are buying homes because fewer people can afford them
It means fewer new homes are being built
It means fewer sales of ancillary products and services (home improvement items, real estate and mortgage brokerage commissions

It does mean higher property taxes
Who wins?

komputodo says

turtledove says

I just don't have faith that the interference will ever stop. Perhaps someday it will have to.

So that faith, and only that faith, is the basis for the expectation of appreciation of these houses? That's a lot of faith..

That "faith" i am sure, is based 80 years of increasing government interference in the housing market

bgamall4 says

Banksters want to recover on the backs of average Joe. They will rape and pillage and call it recovery. As I wrote in my ebooks, once they have tasted the crack high of securitization and fraud, they want more.

Recovery, recovery recovery that is all the media parrots.
That is why I am very surprised the Fortune reporter called the end of the housing recovery. I noted that even the Fed has thrown real estate under the bus.
I suppose it was too hard to tout a housing recovery when sales are depressed

They are now focused on promoting a "jobs recovery"
The same Fortune reporter had this to say re jobs
http://fortune.com/2014/07/03/us-jobs-report-optimism/

Call it Crazy says

RentingSusan says

If the housing recovery is over, why do prices keep going up?

Depends where you live, they aren't going up in many areas.

Zillow indicates RE prices are softening across the board, yes, even for Bay Area. The RE market is very quiet. So, we have to see whether it is merely slight decline till Dec, and stage another Spring rally or something else.

komputodo says

So when you buy a suburban house on the outskirts of phoenix or vegas, where there has never been anything built on that land since the beginning of time and you paid 100k for it and 3 years later it appreciated to 200k, its because that little piece of land upon which your house sits is suddenly extremely valuable?

In some knuckleheads eyes it is. Or are you just referring to what the 'new' tax assessment is? As we know, the house and land are worth whatever someone is willing to pay for it and not a penny more (except in the imagination of county tax assessors).

Call it Crazy says

Don't you know, it's because they're not building any more land!

No, as a matter of fact, due to global warming, er, climate change, er, climate disturbance or whatever they are calling it this week. Anyway we're losing land as the oceans come in and claim the land. Hmmm, sounds like the shifting sands of the tides and ocean currents but don't let that stand in the way of an excuse to suck more money from Joe Average. But yes, they are not making any more land.

RentingSusan says

If the housing recovery is over, why do prices keep going up?

Because a bigger moron is ready and willing to pay a higher price for the POS.

RentingSusan says

If the housing recovery is over, why do prices keep going up?

Bubbles go parabolic just before they pop... as this anatomy clearly shows.

http://www.globaldeflationnews.com/anatomy-of-a-bubble-how-the-federal-reserve-and-the-u-s-congress-have-created-a-debt-crisis-of-historic-proportion/