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I'm liquidating all my stocks and going to cash

By iwog following x   2014 Aug 28, 2:50am 354,358 views   1,368 comments   watch   quote     share  

I'll be doing this today. I've determined that the odds of a 20-25% correction in the stock market is too high right now and prefer to watch from the sidelines until either the market corrects or it becomes obvious that I screwed up.

I am not a trader and I've held most of these positions for 3-5 years. I am not an expert and you should not copy what I'm doing unless you blame someone else if this turns out wrong.

My long term outlook remains the same and I expect the market to make new all time highs in 2015. This is a short term gamble.

I am not going short but may buy some puts if I see prices I like.

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1329 iwog   2017 Apr 12, 1:30pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

SubOink says

NAC 14.60 ...wonder if 14.70 and then back down to 13.80 is on the menu. What do you think @Iwog?

I'm pretty sure it's not going back below 14. I think the bond market has swallowed the worst case nightmare scenario and now all that's left is buyers. Also the "freedom" caucus seems pretty determined to break the congressional habit of ridiculous spending increases while Republicans run the shop.

The 10-year just doesn't seem interested in holding up the higher interest rate narrative. I will say that without a sharp increase in deficit spending, the 10-year is WAY undervalued. I mean crazy levels of undervalued. Should we get Obama levels of government spending from now on, which means practically nothing, the 10-year will zoom below 1.5% and probably even lower.

So NAC is big upside potential and very little downside potential and it gives you money every month. Can't beat that.

ARLP is still stuck in its channel and I'm not worried. A few new coal electrical plants firing back up will break it out. Even if coal continues to decline however, ARLP is still best of breed and will still be profitable.

1330 SubOink   2017 Apr 12, 4:17pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

Right - Thanks!

1331 Heraclitusstudent   2017 Apr 12, 4:27pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

iwog says

the 10-year is WAY undervalued. I mean crazy levels of undervalued.

I'd like to have the same clarity as Iwog, but I find it difficult.
At some point the fed need to get rid of some of those treasuries. China will sell treasuries. Saudis will sell treasuries (it's not like they can support themselves with oil).
But yes, there is that recession coming, eventually. Maybe in 1 year, maybe 3. So?

1332 Ironworker   2017 Apr 12, 4:54pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

No one knows what's going to happen. Iwog included.

As long as we have healthy pull back like this one for example, I think we are going higher. Of course what do I know. My guess for recession would be few years down the road.

There's money to be made in stock market in mean time.

"Far more money has been lost by investors trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves". - peter lynch

I believe same applies to recessions.

If you claim to know what's going to happen next, nobody should listen to you.

1333 iwog   2017 Apr 12, 5:25pm   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

Ironworker says

No one knows what's going to happen. Iwog included.

I'm not a guru. I don't tell people how to invest. All I've done and all I continue to do is tell people what I am putting money into ahead of time and then let the chips fall where they may.

1334 Rew   2017 Apr 12, 6:02pm   ↑ like (2)   ↑ dislike (2)     quote        

Ironworker says

"Far more money has been lost by investors trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves". - peter lynch

Actually, if by "lost" you mean didn't experience the market gain, that's more correct. You don't lose the money you take off the table. You just don't win the next bets, if they play out.

When you really lose, is when the correction occurs, with your money exposed to it.

I'll never weep for my money not growing as fast in a venture/position I perceive as too risky.

1335 Ironworker   2017 Apr 12, 6:13pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

Rew:

"When you really lose, is when the correction occurs, with your money exposed to it."

There were many corrections since 2009, that were eventually replaced with new highs. Corrections are naturally occurring and the people who make real money in stocks are not trying to time them. They pay less in taxes, stare at screens less and enjoy life more. Correction timers are real success in investing game.

1336 anotheraccount   2017 Apr 12, 10:16pm   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

Heraclitusstudent says

At some point the fed need to get rid of some of those treasurie

They really don't. I suspect the balance sheet will not shrink for a long time. As far as NAC, if it gets back to 15.50 range, I will sell my whole position. Pension crisis will come to California. You cannot pay retired firefighters 200K a year. The math just does not work.

1337 SubOink   2017 Apr 13, 10:37am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

Ironworker says

No one knows what's going to happen. Iwog included.

and no-one should expect anyone to know what's going to happen. It's all about sharing educated guesses.

1338 CL   2017 Apr 13, 11:31am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

iwog says

Wow, who hurt you?

Obamacare did it. :)

1339 Bellingham Bill   2017 Apr 14, 10:56pm   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

Ironworker says

Corrections are naturally occurring and the people who make real money in stocks are not trying to time them. They pay less in taxes, stare at screens less and enjoy life more. Correction timers are real success in investing game.

I was just back-testing a simple moving-average market timing strategy vs buy and hold:

This is adding $1000/mo in cash to your position every month, since 1980.

Blue is # of S&P 500 Index shares via Buy & Hold,
Red # shares held by simple market timing of getting out when there's a SMA cross of death and getting back in when the price recovers.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moving_average_crossover

Shows this worked great in the 2002 and 2008 crashes, but more recently it's just chopping too much

1340 someone else   2017 Apr 15, 9:54am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

Bellingham Bill says

I was just back-testing a simple moving-average market timing strategy vs buy and hold:

@"Bellingham Bill" what software did you use for that test and graph?

1341 Bellingham Bill   2017 Apr 15, 11:33am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

I got the S&P 500 historical data from yahoo finance and did the calculations in excel 2008 on my hackintosh . . .

1342 FP   2017 Apr 15, 11:56am   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

Bellingham Bill says

did the calculations in excel

Masochist

1343 someone else   2017 Apr 15, 7:49pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

I don't get why both graphs show a logarithmic rather than exponential increase.

If you're adding $1K/mo, it should at the very least be a linear increase.

1344 Bellingham Bill   2017 Apr 15, 8:36pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

S & P index is going up so each $1000 is buying fewer and fewer shares

Is the total value of the shares in the two strategies -- buy and hold is a 4.5X return while the SMA cross signal is 7.8X

1345 someone else   2017 Apr 15, 8:40pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

What is the y-axis in your original graph? Dollars or shares?

1346 Bellingham Bill   2017 Apr 15, 10:23pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

shares of the S&P 500 index fund

1347 Goran_K   2017 Oct 6, 1:49pm   ↑ like (2)   ↑ dislike (2)     quote        
Can we just call this stupid thread out for how incredibly and stunningly wrong it was?

1348 me123   2017 Oct 6, 1:53pm   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        
Goran_K says
Can we just call this stupid thread out for how incredibly and stunningly wrong it was?


The amazing thing is that he hasn't deleted it or editted all the text. That's what he usually does With failed predictions.
1349 Goran_K   2017 Oct 6, 1:59pm   ↑ like (4)   ↑ dislike (4)     quote        
me123 says
The amazing thing is that he hasn't deleted it or editted all the text. That's what he usually does With failed predictions.


1350 iwog   2017 Oct 6, 2:02pm   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        
Goran_K says
Can we just call this stupid thread out for how incredibly and stunningly wrong it was?


You do realize I've posted a lot of market calls after that point right? Do you realize there were two major corrections after that call? Do you also realize I've been extremely bullish on the stock market since Donald Trump took office?

I think this is just a temper tantrum connected to your ridiculous lawn mower claim. It also proves you're a compulsive liar. (again)

If you read the entire thread and others I made during the time, you would have seen that I advocated putting the money into bonds and specifically NAC which had large gains AND paid over 5% during the entire time the stock market was flat as a pancake.
1351 Ironworker   2017 Oct 6, 2:14pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        
Go read it from beginning guys. So far everything Iwog said in his prediction is correct.

I don't know what you guys are talking about.
1352 Ironworker   2017 Oct 6, 2:17pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        
Now we are most likely close to parabolic increase in dow, exactly how Iwog predicted.

Patience guys. The day we go down will come.
1353 Goran_K   2017 Oct 6, 3:22pm   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        
Ironworker says
Now we are most likely close to parabolic increase in dow, exactly how Iwog predicted.


So are you selling? You're part of the cult of Iwog right? Care to show some transactions where you're selling in anticipation of this "parabolic" downturn?
1354 me123   2017 Oct 6, 3:53pm   ↑ like (2)   ↑ dislike (2)     quote        
iwog says
You do realize I've posted a lot of market calls after that point right?


Yes you did, are we at $1000 gold yet?

How about that recession in 2014, where was it?

Unfortunately, all your calls since then were wrong,
1355 Goran_K   2017 Oct 6, 4:01pm   ↑ like (2)   ↑ dislike (2)     quote        
me123 says
Yes you did, are we at $1000 gold yet?


Another golden prediction.
1356 Ironworker   2017 Oct 6, 4:08pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        
Goran, no it's not parabolic downturn he predicted.

He predicted parabolic upturn before the Crash.

I'm 80% all in, waiting untill we get another maybe 20-30% and than I am selling everything.

However based on Iwog this all might be postponed a little with a bear trap of 20%

That's what he predicted. Bear trap being possibly those 2 20% dips we had couple years ago
1357 Ironworker   2017 Oct 6, 4:08pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        
I mean Two 10% we had couple years ago
1358 Ironworker   2017 Oct 6, 4:11pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        
Go read the whole treat. Iwog is actually very bullish now. As he stated, the biggest games are to be had just before we go down substantially.

I tend to agree the prediction and I am following this advice.
1359 Ironworker   2017 Oct 6, 4:20pm   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        
Sorry for my spelling and mistakes gentlemen. I'm typing this on broken toaster
1360 Goran_K   2017 Oct 6, 4:24pm   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        
Ironworker says
I'm 80% all in, waiting untill we get another maybe 20-30% and than I am selling everything.


You're waiting for another 30% before the crash? There was only a Dow jones jump of 25% between August 2014 and now. So you're going to sell everything in 3-4 years if everything moves like the previous 3-4 years?

are you sure you aren't Iwog's burner account?
1361 anonymous   2017 Oct 6, 4:41pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        
Dang Iwog, why they so mad at you....I think I know, you are a white liberal so they consider you a race traitor, them deplorable bastards.
1362 Ironworker   2017 Oct 6, 4:43pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        
Yes Goran. I'm expecting 20-30% within year and a half or so.

Now off course these are all speculative predictions. If you go back to the beginning of this thread, you'll see what was discussed here.

Now, I'm flexible and my aproach might change based on the feel I have for the market.
1363 Patrick   2017 Oct 6, 6:03pm   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        
I'm pretty happy with the jump on the markets lately. Only dark point is some asshole simultaneously suing shopify while shorting them. Might turn out nicely though. Free publicity.
1364 goat   2017 Oct 6, 9:21pm   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        
Goran_K says




You're part of the cult of Iwog right?



I am. I made fat loot off ARLP and NAC.



I don't DRIP my ARLP distributions. I take that sweet sweet cash out and use it on sweet sweet 21yr old ass.

I must say, with today's closing price for ARLP (19.10), my market total is a pretty fitting number.

NAC is in another account.
1365 me123   2017 Oct 6, 9:34pm   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        
goat says
I am. I made fat loot off ARLP and NAC.



I don't DRIP my ARLP distributions.


Nice, you have one of those play yahoo accounts where you can plug in any number you want.

Now show us your real account.
1366 goat   2017 Oct 6, 10:10pm   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        
me123 says



Nice, you have one of those play yahoo accounts where you can plug in any number you want.


No, that's td ameritrade bud. I'm sure someone here will recognize it. They don't do play accounts.
1367 anonymous   2017 Oct 8, 7:52am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        
At least Iwog made a prediction. Keep'em coming.
1368 joeyjojojunior   2017 Oct 8, 9:52am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        
anonymous says
At least Iwog made a prediction. Keep'em coming.


Exactly-next time I see a market prediction from Goran will be the first.

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